We would still have to win pretty much every remaining game, dropping points in maybe one or two games. It's not going to happen.
The Title Race 2013/14
- Thread starter Buchan
- Start date
Am I missing something here?
The maths in this thread...
Sorry, seems I've made a mathematical error.
We can accumulate a further 57 points from our 19 remaining games, which would give us a total of 91 points.
I reckon ~80 points would see us go very close on the title. That's only eleven points dropped between now and May, or in layman terms, a loss and four draws.
15 wins, 4 draws and a loss from 19 games? Hardly totally out of our reach.
Easily done.
Quite.
I was just checking there wasn't a particular reason he'd left 6 points off, buried somewhere in your essay.
You are looking at this from the absolute best scenario possible.
What's to suggest that City's away form won't improve? As another poster has said, hypothetically, if they average the points they accumulated in the first half of the season they would finish with 82 points, but their away form will probably improve a fair bit and they probably won't show the same home consistency. So you can imagine them getting a further three or four points. That gives them 85/86 points.
Still, even if we can get 91 points, there is still little room for error. We may be grinding out results, but it is too poor sides. If we play the way we currently are against superior opposition, we will continually drop points.
There are just no signs to suggest we can or will win the title. Our performance level needs to improve substantially.
After the 1-6 game in 2011/12, we were NINE points behind City. Everyone, and I mean everyone, expected us to finish 15 - 18 points them in the table. It was like Apocalypse to most United fans. Yet we reversed that deficit and were eight points clear ourselves with eight games to go.
Football is a funny game. Substantial leads can be wiped out in the space of a week or two. As long as United are within two wins (ish) from the top of the table, we are in a good shout.
Football is a funny game. Substantial leads can be wiped out in the space of a week or two. As long as United are within two wins (ish) from the top of the table, we are in a good shout.
The weirdest thing is Chelsea finding themselves 4 points off the top with a game in hand. They haven't been all that good.
It is but they won't win it.
They've been worse than us, but have managed to scrape the home wins against lesser opposition whereas we dropped silly points against West Brom, Southampton, Everton and Newcastle.
Yeah, it's those home games that have messed us up.
At the moment, I'm more confident going into away games, which is weird. We seem to be more compact and press better. At home, we let the opposition have at much of the ball as they want while we just stand there and watch them pass it around.
The premise has to be that we have been underperforming thus far and that we are capable of much more. If this premise is false, we're just about fecked and will end up well below 4th unless we go on a major shopping spree in January.
I think it's about right, though - the premise, I mean. If we can get back to something like full strength squad wise soon and stay largely clear of these pesky injuries - I do think we'll see a team capable of dealing with most teams much more convincingly than the case has been so far. Where we'll end up is anyone's guess, but I'll say this: I'm not terrified by any of our rivals. They could very well drop a pleasant amount of points between here and May.
It's very difficult to be, on the basis of what we've seen thus far.
Weird season. The most impressive team so far is Liverpool, but they wont win the league. We are on a good run now, just need to keep on winning and see who is going to slip up next. I'd love a Newcastle win today as they will eventually drop off.
By City I am. Not anyone else though.
I'm not buying this either (not a slant at you, mate. It's just that I've seen a lot of this in the papers since their "moral victory" at City).
They've been found wanting in the big games. A totally undeserved victory over us, Arsenal made them look ordinary, City beat them in second gear, and they face Chelsea later on. They've steamrollered the also-rans in the league, but if you scratch a little deeper under the surface, their form isn't that spectacular.
I have followed nahealai's optimism throughout the thread, and I have to say, I am impressed.
I think it is reasonably clear that if either SAF had stayed another year or we had been successful with a couple of top quality transfer targets in the summer, we'd walk the league this season. If we had performed as expected at home& not dropped 7 of those points, we'd be equal top at Xmas.
Edit: My bad, excludes this afternoon's fixtures, but it's a valid enough point nevertheless.
Edit: My bad, excludes this afternoon's fixtures, but it's a valid enough point nevertheless.
Exactly this. They have played 6 of the bottom 7 at home and won them all.
Working with Blues and having Blue and Scouse mates keeps me on my toes, man.
You have to show pride in your team when you're surrounded by those goons.
Liverpool were top at Xmas. Could finish the day 5th and two points ahead of us.
Perspective.
Perspective.
I don't see United getting near Arsenal and City. Title is between those two for me. If top 4 is going to happen then either Chelsea or Liverpool need to be caught.
I wish Everton would feck off out of the top 4 positions.
I've just seen the NUFC - Arsenal game and I have to say Newcastle were horrendous. I mean, for all the talk about us beating allegedly shit teams like Hull, Villa and Norwich, at least they could play the ball on the deck and exchange passes. Newcastle were just hoofing the ball forward and even doing that, they were pretty terrible. If you hoof it, hoof it into the danger area. Horrible stuff, strange because they looked decent on the ball at Old Trafford and I expected them to play to that level today.
Yes, Arsenal were shit and impotent and yes they didn't deserve the win but Newcastle deserved to lose the game for the 'football' they presented.
Yes, Arsenal were shit and impotent and yes they didn't deserve the win but Newcastle deserved to lose the game for the 'football' they presented.
They will. It's Chelsea and Liverpool that worry me. cnuts are playing pretty good football. We won't get Arse or City anymore.
What? Chelsea are playing dire stuff.
We were not 9 points behind. We were 5 points behind and that was after 9 games.
Now we are 8 points behind with half the season gone. It's gonna take something special to win it from here.
Not really. They had their dire games but look comfortably better than us.
It will be very hard for us to overtake City and Arsenal. Both will need to collapse for us to do that. Not going to happen. Liverpool are playing very well. This next match will be very interesting. btw Everton are doing so well too.
So we need to finish better than two of Chelsea,Liverpool and Everton to get a place in the CL.
I'm not buying it. Welbeck has scored more than all of their strikers put together, for feck's sake!
Not really.
No wonder. They have no good striker at all. Still playing better football though.
Chelsea have been shit. Right now they look the most likely to drop out of the top 4
Have you watched them much this season? They've been producing dismal, Mourinho football.
This I agree with. If it's one team we can get it's Chelsea. Everton will drop off at one point as well.
I've watched them a fair share. Not impressed by their football but them not having a good striker up front is the reason they have struggled imo. Their football has been better than ours. But we are on a nice run and hopefully can build on that.
Are they feck, get a grip. They have dodged more than a few bullets this season and their front players have been a fecking joke.
Have you watched us though? Not really setting things alight are we? I'm by no means saying they are world beaters and I think they are the the most likely to drop off the top 4.
If based on performance so far and potential strength of squad, I think City would win it.