Titanic tourist submersible missing | Sub's debris found - crew "have been lost"

rimaldo

All about the essence
Joined
Jan 10, 2008
Messages
40,965
Supports
arse
So the rumours about the 19 year old being dragged into the sub by his dad are false. His mother said in an interview that he was really stoked about the whole thing. In fact, he had contacted Guinness World Records and made an arrangement. He was supposed to solve a Rubik's cube at the bottom and thus setting a world record. The dad brought a video camera in order to document the world record...
he’ll at least hold the record for world’s smallest, full-sized cube.
 

That'sHernandez

Ominously close to getting banned
Joined
Oct 30, 2010
Messages
24,571
Neither of which happens with “salt water”. The clue is in the second word of the phrase.
I wasn’t saying it did, just being a know it all.

Obviously different bacteria and viruses have evolved to live in saltwater…
 

wr8_utd

:'(
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
38,255
So the rumours about the 19 year old being dragged into the sub by his dad are false. His mother said in an interview that he was really stoked about the whole thing. In fact, he had contacted Guinness World Records and made an arrangement. He was supposed to solve a Rubik's cube at the bottom and thus setting a world record. The dad brought a video camera in order to document the world record...
Looks like one of the aunt/mother are lying about it then because the former clearly said he wasn't looking forward to it.

Just a series of red flags here - even down to how they used novices when trying to secure the platform next to the ship in a rolling sea....the scene when the diver was communicating about the platform locking mechanism while the comms were out was just farcical. when rush said - we might "just pop off the end of platform" if the pneumatic lock wasn't working. The aggressive dive and ascent angle the platform took, to me shows they didn't have full control of their vessel or the buoyancy of the platform.

What's also interesting is he still tried to take the vessel down to 3000feet as part of a "test dive" and that the guy says someone else didn't want to do the test dive and was put on the next titanic mission instead. Given the uncertain seas in the area there is always going to be a high chance of not being able to dive due to weather. So maybe Rush was under pressure because he had a stack of "owed" dives and needed the cash flow. This seems likely because this guy says he was offered a place for free and I'm seeing lots of stories online about various influencers being offered a place. If he's offering free spaces for clicks and interest then maybe the finances were in a dire state.
Also ties in with that billionaire Bloom being offered a late seat at a healthy discount to the original price.
 

Ajr

Probably no longer under surveillance
Joined
Apr 12, 2008
Messages
3,979
Location
Thinking up of my next genius thread
So why would anyone with any scientific knowledge think that carbon fibre reuse under water at that depth is going to work and not implode? Did they think it could work enough times for it to be seen as passable then get more funding?
 

That'sHernandez

Ominously close to getting banned
Joined
Oct 30, 2010
Messages
24,571
So why would anyone with any scientific knowledge think that carbon fibre reuse under water at that depth is going to work and not implode? Did they think it could work enough times for it to be seen as passable then get more funding?
I’m not sure it’s so nefarious as people are possibly making out.

From everything I’ve read of the guy’s quotes I get the impression he truly believed in his submersible and thought he was an innovator. He took any argument to the contrary as industry player’s attempting to keep the club closed and maintain a status quo. He went on, and piloted, every dive which doesn’t strike me as the kind of thing someone who was being intentionally negligent would do, though I guess he doesn’t have to hire a pilot if he does it himself.

In any event, I think he became so entrenched in being a Musk/Bezos of the deep, and providing a unique experience to those people willing to pay, that he was ignorant to the shortcomings of his submersible. In a sense it’s unforgivable that he caused the deaths of four other people, but also tragic that he died himself. It reminds me of the bloke who accidentally killed himself jumping off the Eiffel Tower when he was testing his parachute invention while trying to win a competition for making flying safer for pilots, being so convinced his invention would work.
 

Camilo

Full Member
Joined
Jan 27, 2014
Messages
2,939
So why would anyone with any scientific knowledge think that carbon fibre reuse under water at that depth is going to work and not implode? Did they think it could work enough times for it to be seen as passable then get more funding?
Very smart people designed it. I'm sure it could work. The maths obviously checked out..

To be fair to the man, he might have been quite casual about many of the systems, but I think he had total faith in the strength of the vessel itself.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,034
Location
Centreback
Very smart people designed it. I'm sure it could work. The maths obviously checked out..

To be fair to the man, he might have been quite casual about many of the systems, but I think he had total faith in the strength of the vessel itself.
I think the design and engineering was strong enough in the first instance but composite materials are well known to degrade over time in seawater, typically because delamination occurs between layers.
 

wr8_utd

:'(
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
38,255
Human remains have been found somehow
Was reading this on the BBC but how did this happen? Doesn't an implosion leave absolutely no trace or remains given the severity of what takes place?
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,034
Location
Centreback
Was reading this on the BBC but how did this happen? Doesn't an implosion leave absolutely no trace or remains given the severity of what takes place?
I guess it depends on what they mean by human remains. They found human remains after the challenger disaster but I'm not sure exactly how much of each person was found. I also assume that when the sub failed it perhaps failed at one end so the other end didn't collapse quite as fast (or something like that) which might have partially protected some bodies from total destruction even thought all would have died instantaneously most likely.
 

Redplane

( . Y . ) planned for Christmas
Joined
Sep 4, 2013
Messages
10,375
Location
The Royal Kingdom of Trumpistan
I guess it depends on what they mean by human remains. They found human remains after the challenger disaster but I'm not sure exactly how much of each person was found. I also assume that when the sub failed it perhaps failed at one end so the other end didn't collapse quite as fast (or something like that) which might have partially protected some bodies from total destruction even thought all would have died instantaneously most likely.
Not to get all morbid but I wonder if things like teeth or small bone particles could have survived the intense heat and/or pressure. Does show a lot of the speculation about it may not be entirely accurate and that perhaps it didn't implode as extreme a depth as initially presumed.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,034
Location
Centreback
Not to get all morbid but I wonder if things like teeth or small bone particles could have survived the intense heat and/or pressure. Does show a lot of the speculation about it may not be entirely accurate and that perhaps it didn't implode as extreme a depth as initially presumed.
I suspect it is just that if the structure didn't fail in exactly the same way at the same time so that it was very slightly less catastrophic at (say) one end of the submersible than the other. Probably meaningless in terms of instantaneous death though.
 
Last edited:

Carolina Red

Moderator
Staff
Joined
Nov 7, 2015
Messages
36,423
Location
South Carolina
Not to get all morbid but I wonder if things like teeth or small bone particles could have survived the intense heat and/or pressure. Does show a lot of the speculation about it may not be entirely accurate and that perhaps it didn't implode as extreme a depth as initially presumed.
The human body is both amazingly fragile and amazingly resilient.

Ex: they also found human remains from the Columbia space shuttle that broke up traveling Mach 18 at an altitude of 63km
 

Pogue Mahone

The caf's Camus.
Joined
Feb 22, 2006
Messages
133,942
Location
"like a man in silk pyjamas shooting pigeons
Not to get all morbid but I wonder if things like teeth or small bone particles could have survived the intense heat and/or pressure. Does show a lot of the speculation about it may not be entirely accurate and that perhaps it didn't implode as extreme a depth as initially presumed.
I don’t think the pressure would crush any body part that doesn’t have air in it.
 

iKnowNothing

Full Member
Joined
Jul 2, 2014
Messages
2,843
Location
hangin in there
I’m surprised that they were able to find any human remains. I’m assuming these are bone fragments as I don’t think a large chunk of the body would remain as is. Add the fact that it’s so far below, finding it is truly amazing from a technology standpoint.
 

UpWithRivers

Full Member
Joined
Dec 30, 2013
Messages
3,651
So why would anyone with any scientific knowledge think that carbon fibre reuse under water at that depth is going to work and not implode? Did they think it could work enough times for it to be seen as passable then get more funding?
I’m not sure it’s so nefarious as people are possibly making out.

From everything I’ve read of the guy’s quotes I get the impression he truly believed in his submersible and thought he was an innovator. He took any argument to the contrary as industry player’s attempting to keep the club closed and maintain a status quo. He went on, and piloted, every dive which doesn’t strike me as the kind of thing someone who was being intentionally negligent would do, though I guess he doesn’t have to hire a pilot if he does it himself.

In any event, I think he became so entrenched in being a Musk/Bezos of the deep, and providing a unique experience to those people willing to pay, that he was ignorant to the shortcomings of his submersible. In a sense it’s unforgivable that he caused the deaths of four other people, but also tragic that he died himself. It reminds me of the bloke who accidentally killed himself jumping off the Eiffel Tower when he was testing his parachute invention while trying to win a competition for making flying safer for pilots, being so convinced his invention would work.
Very smart people designed it. I'm sure it could work. The maths obviously checked out..

To be fair to the man, he might have been quite casual about many of the systems, but I think he had total faith in the strength of the vessel itself.
I think the design and engineering was strong enough in the first instance but composite materials are well known to degrade over time in seawater, typically because delamination occurs between layers.
No. The guy was a fkn idiot. This kind of thinking - Oh he's a clever guy and he piloted it himself so it must be ok. Is the thinking that conned the passengers to get on even though deep down they probably were questioning it. The engineering and knowledge is advanced enough to build subs that should never implode. It should be super rare. Proof? None have imploded except Ocean Gate. The big risks are snagging or maybe electric failure or something. Not implosion. The reason why it imploded is not shocking to the industry or any engineer. They saw it coming. This guy had a huge ego or something and just took shortcuts. They could have built and run safe subs but it would cost probably millions per trip. Hence the billionaires thought they could just save a few dollars and wing it.
 

Penna

Kind Moderator (with a bit of a mean streak)
Staff
Joined
May 1, 2012
Messages
49,683
Location
Ubi caritas et amor, Deus ibi est.
If you read about Rush, every article says that he was a inveterate risk-taker. He was over-confident, had been extremely successful in his life as a young man and felt that rules were there to be broken.

He shrugged off warnings from people who had a lot more experience than he did. I don't think he thought he'd ever fail.
 

TwoSheds

More sheds (and tiles) than you, probably
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Messages
12,980
If anyone is actually interested in the engineering/materials science, I think this article explains the fatigue aspect quite well. https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/technical-faq-bottom-brackets-carbon-fiber-fatigue/

Carbon fiber composites have no fatigue limit, but that is not really the question to ask, since they do not behave like isotropic, hard (i.e., brittle) metals. Steel (titanium, too) has a fatigue limit, so fatigue failure can be avoided with it. As you say, aluminum has no fatigue limit and can thus be more difficult to predict when it might fail under a given cyclic loading. But being a matrix, carbon is less predictable in its failure modes under fatigue.

If a material has a fatigue limit or “endurance limit,” it means that if the cyclic stresses applied to it are below a certain magnitude (measured in units like pounds per square inch), the structure will not fail due to fatigue. Look at the graph; if the stresses on the steel structure depicted in the graph are below about 28ksi (kilopounds per square inch) – or 28,000psi, the steel will never fail due to fatigue (of course assuming no rusting or impact damage). The fatigue curve for titanium looks similar. But you can see that the fatigue curve for aluminum never flattens out, so even small cyclic loads, if they go on long enough, will eventually cause it to fail.

Carbon fiber composites can indeed fatigue, but they do so very differently from metals. Metals tend to be isotropic (uniform in any direction), even though they can be mildly anisotropic in that they can have a predominant grain direction and, like wood, can be stronger along the grain than across it. (According to the coronial report you sent, this particular aluminum steering tube was not uniform in that it had an “inclusion flaw” in it.) By contrast, carbon fiber composites are extremely anisotropic, depending on how the layers of carbon fabric (usually unidirectional fibers) are laid across each other. And this can vary from fork to fork in the same batch, since the fabric pieces are laid up by hand.

Metals tend to eventually fail under fatigue at a single crack. Carbon fiber composites do not do this — they tend to degrade under fatigue throughout the entire volume of the structure. Composite materials fail due to fatigue in four basic ways: cracking of the matrix (i.e., the resin that holds the fibers together), delamination (peeling apart of one layer of fabric from another), breakage of fibers, and debonding of individual fibers from the resin. You may be able to hear delamination, debonding, and cracking by tapping a coin along the fork; where the matrix is intact, it will make a nice “clack” sound, whereas the sound will be deadened if layers have peeled away from each other or if fibers are cracked or no longer stuck together. Cracking of the fibers and/or of the matrix can be deep within the layers and may not be visible from the surface. Fatigue cracks in metal structures always propagate from the surface (the trick is finding the cracks when they are small).

Long answer to your question, but carbon forks can be subject to fatigue. However, in the absence of crashes or impacts, high-quality carbon forks tend to be highly resistant to fatigue. If your fork goes through a hard crash or receives a hard impact, you ought to replace it right away. In the absence of crashes and/or impact damage, it still makes sense to replace full-carbon forks every now and then. Unless you weigh over 200 pounds, however, you can probably figure a good fork will last a long time (10 years or so?) before it needs replacing. The heavier you are, the shorter the interval between replacements. A sub-130-pound rider can probably assume a full-carbon fork will last them a lifetime unless they go through a crash or suffer an impact.

The issue of course is how a bike is used over the years, since 10 years of use for different riders will be different mileage and riding surfaces and tire pressures. To truly monitor fatigue, you would need have an odometer on it and a way to measure the magnitude of the stresses it receives. I don’t see this appearing on a smartphone app anytime soon.
The other thing that has been mentioned as regards the sub is that the windows were only certified down to about 1/3 the depth of where they were diving. Many safety critical things in engineering have a safety factor of 4 or 5 applied (often the case with lifting equipment), but some might only have a safety factor of 1.5 or 2. It's quite possible therefore that if the window had a safety factor of 2 applied between the stress it experienced and its fatigue limit then the extra pressure would exceed its fatigue limit and repeated cycles would eventually cause failure. This might not have been deemed a concern by the manufacturer of the window because they probably thought that anybody with half a brain who knew they had significantly exceeded the rated operating stress would inspect the components for cracks with e.g. an ultrasonic detector, or even just replace it to be on the safe side (like aircraft operators would with structural components).

Finally, I've not seen it mentioned but the sea is very good at corroding things galvanically. Carbon fibre, titanium and stainless steel (I'm assuming the portholes might have had steel frames) all conduct electricity and all have different galvanic potentials so one of them would always corrode preferentially over the others (I'm guessing titanium?). If e.g. the titanium were corroding around the windows then you could have other possible failure modes there. And I believe carbon fibre tends to absorb seawater over time which can accelerate any degradation mechanisms it might have experienced from galvanic corrosion.

All in all I suspect he was an ostensibly clever utter fool. Even just the shape of the sub suggests that to me, never mind the material choices. There is a reason nobody had ever designed a deep sea sub that looked like Starbug from Red Dwarf before.
 
Last edited:

buchansleftleg

Full Member
Joined
Aug 27, 2014
Messages
3,721
Location
Dublin, formerly Manchester
I’m surprised that they were able to find any human remains. I’m assuming these are bone fragments as I don’t think a large chunk of the body would remain as is. Add the fact that it’s so far below, finding it is truly amazing from a technology standpoint.
I suspect it will be some "matter" rather than anything instantly recognisable, but then again sometimes things do survive brief traumatic events if the circumstances are perfect. It's too early to be certain but there is quite a lot of the rear mechanism that still looks intact and without a lot of deformation.

One report has also mentioned finding a titanium cap without it's viewing port. If that's the front window then it may well be either that failed first, or the carbon fibre cracked towards the front of the vessel, making the pressure wave start at the front rather than through the middle of the vessel.

As @UpWithRivers says, the CEO was clearly a massive Narcissist who felt he was more in the know than established experts. There is "pushing an envelope" with a safety margin and there is just throwing any sort of safety out the window. The use of carbon fibre for the body smacks of a total misunderstanding of the properties of the material. Like all narcissists this guy was highly manipulative...I suspect we will get a PR offensive from Family and Friends of his in the coming weeks trying to defend his actions and watch as they repeat word for word his mantras about "too much safety" ..."Driving a car is risky"

Yes carbon fibre is used in Formula 1, yes it is strong, but any carbon fibre part that is put under anything close to a peak load (from a bump rather than a serious crash) gets replaced. The cost dynamics of this work in F1 because a car design is changing from week to week and there is a chance of catastrophic failure all the time, meaning you will have to replace the part anyway. The only way carbon fibre works is if you have a thoroughly tested tube used each time you dive,
 

wr8_utd

:'(
Joined
Apr 22, 2008
Messages
38,255
I suspect it will be some "matter" rather than anything instantly recognisable, but then again sometimes things do survive brief traumatic events if the circumstances are perfect. It's too early to be certain but there is quite a lot of the rear mechanism that still looks intact and without a lot of deformation.

One report has also mentioned finding a titanium cap without it's viewing port. If that's the front window then it may well be either that failed first, or the carbon fibre cracked towards the front of the vessel, making the pressure wave start at the front rather than through the middle of the vessel.

As @UpWithRivers says, the CEO was clearly a massive Narcissist who felt he was more in the know than established experts. There is "pushing an envelope" with a safety margin and there is just throwing any sort of safety out the window. The use of carbon fibre for the body smacks of a total misunderstanding of the properties of the material. Like all narcissists this guy was highly manipulative...I suspect we will get a PR offensive from Family and Friends of his in the coming weeks trying to defend his actions and watch as they repeat word for word his mantras about "too much safety" ..."Driving a car is risky"

Yes carbon fibre is used in Formula 1, yes it is strong, but any carbon fibre part that is put under anything close to a peak load (from a bump rather than a serious crash) gets replaced. The cost dynamics of this work in F1 because a car design is changing from week to week and there is a chance of catastrophic failure all the time, meaning you will have to replace the part anyway. The only way carbon fibre works is if you have a thoroughly tested tube used each time you dive,
Yup, there's videos of it. Apart from the window missing, its in great condition.
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,034
Location
Centreback
No. The guy was a fkn idiot. This kind of thinking - Oh he's a clever guy and he piloted it himself so it must be ok. Is the thinking that conned the passengers to get on even though deep down they probably were questioning it. The engineering and knowledge is advanced enough to build subs that should never implode. It should be super rare. Proof? None have imploded except Ocean Gate. The big risks are snagging or maybe electric failure or something. Not implosion. The reason why it imploded is not shocking to the industry or any engineer. They saw it coming. This guy had a huge ego or something and just took shortcuts. They could have built and run safe subs but it would cost probably millions per trip. Hence the billionaires thought they could just save a few dollars and wing it.
You are missing the point I was making. Maybe I wasn't clear enough. I was suggesting that the initial design/engineering/build was probably strong enough but carbon fibre's known degradation over time in salt water was ignored.
 

Murder on Zidane's Floor

You'd better not kill Giroud
Joined
Jun 11, 2015
Messages
28,664
You are missing the point I was making. Maybe I wasn't clear enough. I was suggesting that the initial design/engineering/build was probably strong enough but carbon fibre's known degradation over time in salt water was ignored.
Isn't that a tautological statement. The design cannot be strong enough because it included carbon fibre and the purpose of the design was to be submerged in....salt water

From what I've read, the design wasn't signed off or considered strong enough, the window wasn't rated for depth and it generally had a target DIY feel.
 

Murder on Zidane's Floor

You'd better not kill Giroud
Joined
Jun 11, 2015
Messages
28,664
If anyone is actually interested in the engineering/materials science, I think this article explains the fatigue aspect quite well. https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/technical-faq-bottom-brackets-carbon-fiber-fatigue/



The other thing that has been mentioned as regards the sub is that the windows were only certified down to about 1/3 the depth of where they were diving. Many safety critical things in engineering have a safety factor of 4 or 5 applied (often the case with lifting equipment), but some might only have a safety factor of 1.5 or 2. It's quite possible therefore that if the window had a safety factor of 2 applied between the stress it experienced and its fatigue limit then the extra pressure would exceed its fatigue limit and repeated cycles would eventually cause failure. This might not have been deemed a concern by the manufacturer of the window because they probably thought that anybody with half a brain who knew they had significantly exceeded the rated operating stress would inspect the components for cracks with e.g. an ultrasonic detector, or even just replace it to be on the safe side (like aircraft operators would with structural components).

Finally, I've not seen it mentioned but the sea is very good at corroding things galvanically. Carbon fibre, titanium and stainless steel (I'm assuming the portholes might have had steel frames) all conduct electricity and all have different galvanic potentials so one of them would always corrode preferentially over the others (I'm guessing titanium?). If e.g. the titanium were corroding around the windows then you could have other possible failure modes there. And I believe carbon fibre tends to absorb seawater over time which can accelerate any degradation mechanisms it might have experienced from galvanic corrosion.

All in all I suspect he was an ostensibly clever utter fool. Even just the shape of the sub suggests that to me, never mind the material choices. There is a reason nobody had ever designed a deep sea sub that looked like Starbug from Red Dwarf before.
Thanks for the link.

I sometimes feel certain materials are considered "good" or "space age" (not limited to carbon fibre), and this reputation means people try to shoe horn them in without actually needing them because it sounds good!
 

Wibble

In Gadus Speramus
Staff
Joined
Jun 15, 2000
Messages
89,034
Location
Centreback
Isn't that a tautological statement. The design cannot be strong enough because it included carbon fibre and the purpose of the design was to be submerged in....salt water

From what I've read, the design wasn't signed off or considered strong enough, the window wasn't rated for depth and it generally had a target DIY feel.
It can be strong enough the first time you use it but carbon fibre degrades in seawater, primarily by water ingress/delamination. That doesn't mean I think it was a good idea.
 

Scandi Red

Hates Music.
Joined
Sep 25, 2022
Messages
4,746
If you asked me to describe my least favorite type of person, who is nonetheless quite common to find in the real world, then this guy would be a very close description of what I'd come up with. It sickens me that his hubris managed to kill 4 others and endanger a bunch more.
 

TwoSheds

More sheds (and tiles) than you, probably
Joined
Feb 12, 2014
Messages
12,980
Thanks for the link.

I sometimes feel certain materials are considered "good" or "space age" (not limited to carbon fibre), and this reputation means people try to shoe horn them in without actually needing them because it sounds good!
This is certain. Almost all road cars that have carbon fibre in them it's basically just for show and rarely forms a significant part of the structure. For one thing it's quite hard to predict how it will behave through life compared to most metals, so while you might find it quite easy to convince yourself that it will last 10 races in a race car, it's much harder to convince yourself it will last 10 years of use and weathering in a road car.

It's cool stuff don't get me wrong but I worked on an outboard motor design with carbon fibre cowling and I believe it is not only heavier than a more typical plastic cowling, and probably degrades slightly from the effect of seawater ingress, I'm told it also has given them problems with glavanic corrosion by electrically connecting metal parts through paths that wouldn't be there with an insulating plastic cowling. And it costs more of course, but it's all about whether it looks and sounds racy to a lot of people I think.
 

Tincanalley

Turns player names into a crappy conversation
Joined
Apr 12, 2011
Messages
10,135
Location
Ireland
I’m not sure it’s so nefarious as people are possibly making out.

From everything I’ve read of the guy’s quotes I get the impression he truly believed in his submersible and thought he was an innovator. He took any argument to the contrary as industry player’s attempting to keep the club closed and maintain a status quo. He went on, and piloted, every dive which doesn’t strike me as the kind of thing someone who was being intentionally negligent would do, though I guess he doesn’t have to hire a pilot if he does it himself.

In any event, I think he became so entrenched in being a Musk/Bezos of the deep, and providing a unique experience to those people willing to pay, that he was ignorant to the shortcomings of his submersible. In a sense it’s unforgivable that he caused the deaths of four other people, but also tragic that he died himself. It reminds me of the bloke who accidentally killed himself jumping off the Eiffel Tower when he was testing his parachute invention while trying to win a competition for making flying safer for pilots, being so convinced his invention would work.
Maybe someone else made this point; the sub had been to these depths already and crew returned safely, on more than one occasion. I’m not defending the owner, but it might explain his (misguided) confidence
 
Last edited: