xG and finishing under ETH

[The Irish Connection]

Still think we are a bit away from that. We can get to 80's with the right signings but actually challenging City requires being a team that can get to mid 90s like Liverpool did to challenge them... Don't see that. Arsenal only got to mid 80's so City eased off at the end, but they were on pace for 94 if they had someone pushing. I think it's more realistic to challenge for the CL than to hit that consistency already. Too much uncertainty with the ownership situation, unknown transfer window budgets and too much to address. Well positioned for 24/25 challenge though, if we hit a high enough level

Yeah, that’s fair. I’m probably being optimistic. A lot of things need to go right but if they do, I think we’d have a chance.
Hope the ownership situation gets sorted very soon, but looking like that might be wishful thinking too.

 

[Chungy]

Yeah, that’s fair. I’m probably being optimistic. A lot of things need to go right but if they do, I think we’d have a chance.
Hope the ownership situation gets sorted very soon, but looking like that might be wishful thinking too.

I think we need at least 1 more season for us to challenge as well.
To get to 90+ points, we need to improve on another 15+ points. Especially with deep cup runs, to truly challenge for the league, we need a squad of at least 16 great players to be consistent enough to get to that level of performance. Otherwise, like Arsenal this season, our form will undoubtedly drop towards the end of the season.
Frankly, if a team's lucky, it's easier to challenge for the CL than the league.
Of course, we could just throw all the cups in hope of challenging for the league, but there's no guarantee we would even get close, let alone win, the league.

 

[The Irish Connection]

I think we need at least 1 more season for us to challenge as well.
To get to 90+ points, we need to improve on another 15+ points. Especially with deep cup runs, to truly challenge for the league, we need a squad of at least 16 great players to be consistent enough to get to that level of performance. Otherwise, like Arsenal this season, our form will undoubtedly drop towards the end of the season.
Frankly, if a team's lucky, it's easier to challenge for the CL than the league.
Of course, we could just throw all the cups in hope of challenging for the league, but there's no guarantee we would even get close, let alone win, the league.

I know, that’s probably the realistic take, but there was a point this season when we were within touching distance of challenging the top, so you never know.
Obviously, the ownership situation needs to move soon and we’ll need 5 very good signings.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Talk of us challenging City while they have Pep is mad.

Nobody will challenge them unless they have an injury free season, or close to two starters in every position.

Klopps Liverpool sides put in a good shift but that took so much luck and perfect decisions to make possible.

I’d rather EtH focused on turning us into Zidane or Ancelotti’s Madrid. Great cup team that can have a decent run at the Cl every year.

The PL is done. Trying to win it, ruins seasons. And yes I know how depressing and defeating that is.

Edit : The key point being - You have to build a team for three years plus to win a league. To win the CL you can think shorter term and buy talent to fill gaps every year. Not wait for a team to somewhat peak all at once.

 

[Dazzmondo]

Talk of us challenging City while they have Pep is mad.

Nobody will challenge them unless they have an injury free season, or close to two starters in every position.

Klopps Liverpool sides put in a good shift but that took so much luck and perfect decisions to make possible.

I’d rather EtH focused on turning us into Zidane or Ancelotti’s Madrid. Great cup team that can have a decent run at the Cl every year.

The PL is done. Trying to win it, ruins seasons. And yes I know how depressing and defeating that is.

Edit : The key point being - You have to build a team for three years plus to win a league. To win the CL you can think shorter term and buy talent to fill gaps every year. Not wait for a team to somewhat peak all at once.

And why would Pep ever leave if it's so easy for him to just keep winning? Dude's not old, he can keep managing them for decades if he fancies it. Sorry but this attitude is a dumb one, we should always be trying the best we can to put ourselves in a position to challenge. Just giving up is a crap attitude and serves no purpose.

 

[Yagami]

Nice. This summer transfer window is really important. If we get it right I’d be fairly confident of challenging city.

People will think you're mad but this is true. Some act like City are this God level team that only miracles will allow teams to compete with but Arsenal would have won the league this season if Saliba hadn't got injured. It's completely doable.

In two out of three games this season, we've shown we can go toe-to-toe with them, and that was without a balanced team due to having no CF resulting in us moving the likes of Rashford and Bruno out of position. Some would argue that in the FA Cup final they were saving themselves, but I think that's a discredit to ten Hag's tactics. We made them look as underwhelming at Old Trafford, too, and I do think that's down to the coaching.

Before the injuries and fixture congestion took there toll, we didn't look far off challenging this season. If we had the CF to kill off the games we ended up dropping points in this season, no, we probably still wouldn't have competed, but we would have gained more than enough points to make people think "maybe we can next year".

At the moment, I don't see us challenging next season because I'm waiting to see us address the weaknesses we have as a team, but, like you say, if we make the right signings, I think we can already challenge. We just have to buy smart.

 

[tenpoless]

With better finishers those xG will turn into juicy points.

 

[Eddy_JukeZ]

City aren't unbeatable.

I don't get this defeatist attitude our fans have when it comes to City. Pep's Barcelona were a better team and even they got pipped to a league title. Cycles come to an end.

 

[The Irish Connection]

People will think you're mad but this is true. Some act like City are this God level team that only miracles will allow teams to compete with but Arsenal would have won the league this season if Saliba hadn't got injured. It's completely doable.

In two out of three games this season, we've shown we can go toe-to-toe with them, and that was without a balanced team due to having no CF resulting in us moving the likes of Rashford and Bruno out of position. Some would argue that in the FA Cup final they were saving themselves, but I think that's a discredit to ten Hag's tactics. We made them look as underwhelming at Old Trafford, too, and I do think that's down to the coaching.

Before the injuries and fixture congestion took there toll, we didn't look far off challenging this season. If we had the CF to kill off the games we ended up dropping points in this season, no, we probably still wouldn't have competed, but we would have gained more than enough points to make people think "maybe we can next year".

At the moment, I don't see us challenging next season because I'm waiting to see us address the weaknesses we have as a team, but, like you say, if we make the right signings, I think we can already challenge. We just have to buy smart.

Yeah, that’s how I see it too.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I don’t see why we can’t really go for it next season.
Signings are crucial and they all have to hit the ground running but it’s doable.
5 good signings down the spine will really make a difference.
The right wing is still a concern for me, but the other positions are essential.

Just hope the Glazers finally piss off soon, in time for us to make those signings.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Yeah, that’s how I see it too.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I don’t see why we can’t really go for it next season.
Signings are crucial and they all have to hit the ground running but it’s doable.
5 good signings down the spine will really make a difference.
The right wing is still a concern for me, but the other positions are essential.

Just hope the Glazers finally piss off soon, in time for us to make those signings.

When has any other club ever had 5 good signings all hit the ground running in their first season? Never mind a club whose transfer record is as hit and miss as ours.

 

[eire-red]

Yeah, that’s how I see it too.
Maybe it’s wishful thinking but I don’t see why we can’t really go for it next season.
Signings are crucial and they all have to hit the ground running but it’s doable.
5 good signings down the spine will really make a difference.
The right wing is still a concern for me, but the other positions are essential.

Just hope the Glazers finally piss off soon, in time for us to make those signings.

I think we just need one or two top signings. If given the option, I'd take only Kane this summer over 3/4 signings that may or may not have the desired impact.

I think Liverpool under Rodgers with Suarez is a good example. His brilliance transformed that team, and that is what true world class quality can do.

Of course, the real challenge is finding a Suarez, but I don't think we need anymore than a top CF and a top CM to make a proper push.

When I look back on the season, I see a lot of games where one or two difference makers would have gotten us another 10-15 points. I don't think we're as far away at all. And for once, we have the right man at the helm in my eyes.

 

[The Irish Connection]

When has any other club ever had 5 good signings all hit the ground running in their first season? Never mind a club whose transfer record is as hit and miss as ours.

Well, maybe not all 5 but definitely 3 need to make a big impact. As I’ve said, a lot needs to go right but stranger things have happened. For example, say we signed rice and Kane. They could easily hit the ground running.
and you’d hope that under new owners we’d be a bit more efficient in the transfer market.

 

[The Irish Connection]

I think we just need one or two top signings. If given the option, I'd take only Kane this summer over 3/4 signings that may or may not have the desired impact.

I think Liverpool under Rodgers with Suarez is a good example. His brilliance transformed that team, and that is what true world class quality can do.

Of course, the real challenge is finding a Suarez, but I don't think we need anymore than a top CF and a top CM to make a proper push.

When I look back on the season, I see a lot of games where one or two difference makers would have gotten us another 10-15 points. I don't think we're as far away at all. And for once, we have the right man at the helm in my eyes.

I agree to an extent. A top centre forward and midfielder are the most important.
Not convinced Mount is that midfielder but as a rotation option he’s fine.

 

[Samid]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[DJ Jeff]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Absolutely shocking.

 

[Jagga7]

Absolutely shocking.

Clean sheet! What you on about!?

 

[Denis79]

But the first time we've faced a park the bus team at home. We'll be facing loads of these in the league soon.

I recently mentioned to a friend that many teams are likely to defend very deep against us. We can't depend solely on our speed and runs behind the opposition's defense as a way of attacking. Still too early for any conclusions but it didn't look good yesterday.

 

[Cans&Bans]

Why do people pay any attention to xG? It's a load of nonsense

 

[AjaxCunian]

Why do people pay any attention to xG? It's a load of nonsense

Right.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I recently mentioned to a friend that many teams are likely to defend very deep against us. We can't depend solely on our speed and runs behind the opposition's defense as a way of attacking. Still too early for any conclusions but it didn't look good yesterday.

We sure as shit can't count on it if we're losing footraces as consistently as we did last night.

 

[Revan]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

And that's not counting what should have been a clear penalty for them.

Shocking display!

 

[tomaldinho1]

United xG per season from 16/17 (footystats doesn't seem to have them before or I can't find them)

	16/17	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24 (1 game)
xG	2.04	1.56	1.63	1.84	1.83	1.74	1.82	0.22
xGA	1.27	1.31	1.44	1.35	1.39	1.65	1.49	0.8

This kind of confirms what we know, Mou first season we played offensive football but we were solely reliant on Ibra for goals. People forget we were 5th, a point behind City until his injury and then got 9/21 points (scoring 2 goals across all those games combined!) in the last 7 games of the season and went all out for Europa.

Otherwise, we've been quite similar in honesty. The outlying numbers can be explained (the highest xGA is Ole/Ragnick). It might genuinely be as simple as not having an elite CF since Ibra, I suspect the issue is a lot more about how basic our CM setup has been for years.

 

[Revan]

United xG per season from 16/17 (footystats doesn't seem to have them before or I can't find them)

	16/17	17/18	18/19	19/20	20/21	21/22	22/23	23/24 (1 game)
xG	2.04	1.56	1.63	1.84	1.83	1.74	1.82	0.22
xGA	1.27	1.31	1.44	1.35	1.39	1.65	1.49	0.8

This kind of confirms what we know, Mou first season we played offensive football but we were solely reliant on Ibra for goals. People forget we were 5th, a point behind City until his injury and then got 9/21 points (scoring 2 goals across all those games combined!) in the last 7 games of the season and went all out for Europa.

Otherwise, we've been quite similar in honesty. The outlying numbers can be explained (the highest xGA is Ole/Rangnick). It might genuinely be as simple as not having an elite CF since Ibra, I suspect the issue is a lot more about how basic our CM setup has been for years.

It also shows what we all knew by watching the game: that last season performances were really not better than those under Ole (except the third season). People mention progress but I do not see where is that progress.

 

[tomaldinho1]

It also shows what we all knew by watching the game: that last season performances were really not better than those under Ole (except the third season). People mention progress but I do not see where is that progress.

I definitely think there were some signs of more patient football and most importantly we saw a lot of players look a lot better under ETH which suggests the caf was correct in wanting a hands on coach - Varane, Shaw, AWB, Dalot, Rashford all rediscovered form to varying degrees, the new signings were all good and I also think you have to factor in ETH got f'd over by Ronaldo and then we had to loan a stop gap ST. With that in mind last season was a success in my mind but expectations now are much higher and I think we should be seeing much more in game control now, especially at home. That is why the CM setup is so key. It is Game 1 though, let's see where we are by game 5 and 10. I am worried though.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It also shows what we all knew by watching the game: that last season performances were really not better than those under Ole (except the third season). People mention progress but I do not see where is that progress.

I mean it does if you don't watch any games and think xG is the only way to analyse what happened.

The big problem last season was the lack of a striker. Stick Lukaku or Cavani in that squad (for all their flaws) and we'd have been a hell of lot better going forwards. Even if Martial had been less crocked it could have made a huge difference. There was clear improvement in almost every other area of the pitch.

 

[Revan]

I mean it does if you don't watch any games and think xG is the only way to analyse what happened.

The big problem last season was the lack of a striker. Stick Lukaku or Cavani in that squad (for all their flaws) and we'd have been a hell of lot better going forwards. Even if Martial had been less crocked it could have made a huge difference. There was clear improvement in almost every other area of the pitch.

I watched almost every match last season, we weren't really that good in most of them.

We were absolutely terrible last match. If it was Liverpool or City, it would have been another 5-0 or worse. After 400m and 14 months, I think we were expecting something better than what we are showing.

So it isn't just basing everything in xG, that is just confirming what we see with our eyes. Nevertheless, just basing everything in xG is far more informative that some non quantifiable progress, that he has been good and there is some invisible progress going on, and all is gonna turn out to be ok as long as we are patient.

It is also on ten Hag (and Murtough who is turning to be ten Hag's bitch instead of boss) that we did not sign a quality striker. Hojlund's and Mount's money could have brought a top striker. Or the money we wasted in Antony.

 

[Abraxas]

I watched almost every match last season, we weren't really that good in most of them.

We were absolutely terrible last match. If it was Liverpool or City, it would have been another 5-0 or worse. After 400m and 14 months, I think we were expecting something better than what we are showing.

So it isn't just basing everything in xG, that is just confirming what we see with our eyes. Nevertheless, just basing everything in xG is far more informative that some non quantifiable progress, that he has been good and there is some invisible progress going on, and all is gonna turn out to be ok as long as we are patient.

It is also on ten Hag (and Murtough who is turning to be ten Hag's bitch instead of boss) that we did not sign a quality striker. Hojlund's and Mount's money could have brought a top striker. Or the money we wasted in Antony.

Last season we finished third and won a trophy.

The season prior we finished 6th and won feck all.

Quantifiable progress.

 

[Revan]

Last season we finished third and won a trophy.

The season prior we finished 6th and won feck all.

Quantifiable progress.

The season before that was an outlier, the manager lost the dressing room. Other clubs didn't shit their beds like Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs did last year. We reached second the season before that (and the final of Europa), and third the season before that.

Btw, I am not an Ole fan. Think he should not have been permanent, should have been sacked after his first full season here, and definitely after his second season. A marginal improvement over Ole (who was a terrible manager) is not something to applaud.

 

[RuudTom83]

When you think of the CF that have left the club in the last 18-24 months its not really surprising.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Could a win be a loss?

 

[TheRedDevil'sAdvocate]

There is absolutely no chance we were worth >2 goals p/g in the PL in 2016-17. Zero chance... zilch, nada.

 

[Abraxas]

The season before that was an outlier, the manager lost the dressing room. Other clubs didn't shit their beds like Chelsea, Liverpool and Spurs did last year. We reached second the season before that (and the final of Europa), and third the season before that.

Btw, I am not an Ole fan. Think he should not have been permanent, should have been sacked after his first full season here, and definitely after his second season. A marginal improvement over Ole (who was a terrible manager) is not something to applaud.

I'm not saying he deserves a statue nor am I standing up in adoration. In fact I wasn't even applauding. Only disputing your claim there has been no quantifiable progress.

I'm suggesting that we clearly improved in a quantifiable manner compared to the season before. Why would that be important as a measuring stick? Because it's an appraisal that is balanced and fair based on context. It is comparing an output against an input, which in football would be a set of circumstances. A relatively exact squad of players, at a certain age, that are in a certain condition or morale that have achieved a certain outcome.

What you want to do is completely skip over the course of events, explain it away - and seemingly replace it with xG and whatever you've spun in your own mind about other clubs before claiming there has been no quantifiable progress. Gibberish in other words. There has been quantifiable progress and the progress can be measured in league position or silverware, take your pick.

 

[Revan]

There is absolutely no chance we were worth >2 goals p/g in the PL in 2016-17. Zero chance... zilch, nada.

The season we signed Pogba, Ibra and Mkhitaryan? We absolutely were, I still think it was easily best post SAF season (although we gave up in the league in the final five matches to chase Europa which lead us to finish 6th).

 

[Revan]

I'm not saying he deserves a statue nor am I standing up in adoration. In fact I wasn't even applauding. Only disputing your claim there has been no quantifiable progress.

I'm suggesting that we clearly improved in a quantifiable manner compared to the season before. Why would that be important as a measuring stick? Because it's an appraisal that is balanced and fair based on context. It is comparing an output against an input, which in football would be a set of circumstances. A relatively exact squad of players, at a certain age, that are in a certain condition or morale that have achieved a certain outcome.

What you want to do is completely skip over the course of events, explain it away - and seemingly replace it with xG and whatever you've spun in your own mind about other clubs before claiming there has been no quantifiable progress. Gibberish in other words. There has been quantifiable progress and the progress can be measured in league position or silverware, take your pick.

Why only the season where the manager lost the dressing room matters? We have seen top squads being shit when the manager loses the dressing room, to only instantly return to top squads when the manager changes. Chelsea does that every 3 years.

Why you do not compare with the season before that when we finished second and reached Europa's final? What signs of progress we showed last season compared to 20-21 season, while spending around 400m, half of which from ten Hag?

 

[TheRedDevil'sAdvocate]

The season we signed Pogba, Ibra and Mkhitaryan? We absolutely were, I still think it was easily best post SAF season (although we gave up in the league in the final five matches to chase Europa which lead us to finish 6th).

It's wrong. The stat isn't correct. Even Understat, who are very generous with their ratings, have us on xG 57.57 in 38 matches. That's way below 2 expected goals per game.

 

[Revan]

It's wrong. The stat isn't correct. Even Understat, who are very generous with their ratings, have us on xG 57.57 in 38 matches. That's way below 2 expected goals per game.

Fair enough, I stand corrected.

 

[Red4Ever]

Why only the season where the manager lost the dressing room matters? We have seen top squads being shit when the manager loses the dressing room, to only instantly return to top squads when the manager changes. Chelsea does that every 3 years.

Why you do not compare with the season before that when we finished second and reached Europa's final? What signs of progress we showed last season compared to 20-21 season, while spending around 400m, half of which from ten Hag?

what did we win in 2021?

 

[Revan]

what did we win in 2021?

feck all. But also League Cup is closer to feck all than to a real trophy (EPL and UCL).

 

[Red4Ever]

feck all. But also League Cup is closer to feck all than to a real trophy (EPL and UCL).

Winning something is a sign of progress
So is replacing maguire & co with the likes of Martinez
We also have a much better manager than then too

 

[Revan]

Winning something is a sign of progress
So is replacing maguire & co with the likes of Martinez
We also have a much better manager than then too

Depends what. We were one penalty away out of 11 in Europa, which IMO is a far better sign than winning Mickey Mouse Cup. Arsenal last season did not win anything but had a better season than us. Same for Inter.

I agree that he should be a better manager than Ole, and that spending 400m should result with a better team. But until we show it in the pitch, it is all hypothetical.