We're doomed to 6th forever.
Top 4 race 2016/17
- Thread starter Yorkeontop
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Funny. Why not? All games that BVB and Liverpool have ever played under Klopp are easily available for football clubs. They have myriads of staff involved in opponent observation and tactical analysis. Why will it according to you take Premier League managers so long then to 'find the system Klopp uses out' when Bundesliga managers whose names hardly any EPL fan have heard about did? Are PL managers so incredibly slow learners?
Have you ever checked Dortmund's possession % since 2013/14?
A bunch of old tired cliches, that's what it is. Some fans still think this is the 1970s.
Hey, since you're a Dortmund fan, what do you think of Klopp at Liverpool? Has there been a significant change from the way he sets his teams up at Dortmund, or has it been mostly the same?
Seems like all the top 6 clubs have improved this season over time. Getting to top 4 would be really difficult!
I don't think any of the non-United fans expect us to get into top 4. We need to win another 3-4 games in a trot to get back into the mix. It looks really tough but just consider last season when we didn't win a single game in December but still managed to miss out on top 4 only by goal difference. There is no way that all the teams above us will be consistent throughout. We just need to be in a position to capitalize when such a collapse happens.
The possession % might be higher because the opposition are letting them play.
The best way to counter Klopps team is to press from the front and be relentless for the 90mins but PL teams let up extremely easy. All is takes is a close shot from Liverpool or an early lead for the team to forget all about their pressing from the front and closing down the lanes. They just go on to park the bus and play right into Liverpools hands, a recent example of this would be Stoke.
As seasons go by, I think players will start picking their moments wisely, know how to negate the press and never let up with their tactics regardless of how well Liverpool are doing in the game. The PL managers definitely know how to face Liverpool, it's the players that are not effectively carrying out the tactics as they just are not used to playing teams like Liverpool that are very good at making the opposition uncomfortable IMO. Parking the bus will never work against Klopps team, it is a sign of weakness and it is playing right into Klopps hand. How many teams recently teams recently have pressed Liverpool from the front and been very active in closing down passing lanes, just to give it all up when Liverpool start making them uncomfortable? The composure that some PL players show is shockingly bad.
The best way to counter Klopps team is to press from the front and be relentless for the 90mins but PL teams let up extremely easy. All is takes is a close shot from Liverpool or an early lead for the team to forget all about their pressing from the front and closing down the lanes. They just go on to park the bus and play right into Liverpools hands, a recent example of this would be Stoke.
As seasons go by, I think players will start picking their moments wisely, know how to negate the press and never let up with their tactics regardless of how well Liverpool are doing in the game. The PL managers definitely know how to face Liverpool, it's the players that are not effectively carrying out the tactics as they just are not used to playing teams like Liverpool that are very good at making the opposition uncomfortable IMO. Parking the bus will never work against Klopps team, it is a sign of weakness and it is playing right into Klopps hand. How many teams recently teams recently have pressed Liverpool from the front and been very active in closing down passing lanes, just to give it all up when Liverpool start making them uncomfortable? The composure that some PL players show is shockingly bad.
I'm pretty sure they are thinking the exact same thing with regards to us, except we have less room for error.
Yeah all those top clubs seem to be making up for last season by becoming indistructable this season. By the time the season ends, there will probably be a huge gap between the top 6 and the rest.
Seems they're only dropping points when they play eachother. Can't think of many upsets this season. Burnley have got points off United and I think Chelsea, but that's about it
Well you can paint it in a way that suits you, but that's the way you want to see it.
Chelsea had easy early fixtures, two home games against West Ham (W, 2-1) and Burnley (W, 3-0), and away to Watford (W, 1-2) and Swansea (D, 2-2). Hardly in a groove, considering the standard of opposition. They then lost at home to your lot, and got battered by Arsenal, prompting the change. They haven't looked back since.
Average point per game for top 6 are-
1Chelsea --- 2.55
2 Liverpool 2.22
3 Man City 2.16
4 Arsenal 2.05
5 Tottenham 2.00
6 Man Utd 1.83
20 games to go, considering all other get points at the same rate that they are (Very unlikely as city play pool and that will alter this )
Still this estimate brings us to a total of 78 points for 4th for united.
Now lets have a look at a table from 2003-2013(2003/04-2012/13) for top 4 position and points gotten by teams to achieve them.
Pos Mean Mode Median PPG
1 88.6 89 89 2.33
2 81.9 83 83 2.15
3 75.8 75 75 2.00
4 68.8 68 68.5 1.81
For 2013-14 Arsenal came fourth(2.07 PPG) with 79 points(needed 73 to finish above everton),City won the league with 2.26 PPG with 86 points
For 2014-15 United came 4th (1.84 PPG) with 70 points(6 ahead of spurs), Chelsea won the league with 2.29 PPG with 87 Points, city were second With 79 points.
For 2015-16 City united tied in for 4th with 66 points(1.73 PPG). Leicestor won the league with 81 points(2.13 PPG), Arsenal were 2nd with 71 points.
So from above i expect the teams above us to at least falter because this pace is not maintainable. We on the other hand are on the correct path for a at least 3rd-4th finish in usually all the seasons. I do expect us to have a better 2nd half too.
Taking everything into account i think getting 75 points will be minimum for us to get top 4, 78 to be sure of it.
1Chelsea --- 2.55
2 Liverpool 2.22
3 Man City 2.16
4 Arsenal 2.05
5 Tottenham 2.00
6 Man Utd 1.83
20 games to go, considering all other get points at the same rate that they are (Very unlikely as city play pool and that will alter this )
- Arsenal will finish 4th with (77-78) points
- CITY-(82-83)
- Liverpool-(84-85)
- Chelsea win the league (97 points)
Still this estimate brings us to a total of 78 points for 4th for united.
Now lets have a look at a table from 2003-2013(2003/04-2012/13) for top 4 position and points gotten by teams to achieve them.
Pos Mean Mode Median PPG
1 88.6 89 89 2.33
2 81.9 83 83 2.15
3 75.8 75 75 2.00
4 68.8 68 68.5 1.81
For 2013-14 Arsenal came fourth(2.07 PPG) with 79 points(needed 73 to finish above everton),City won the league with 2.26 PPG with 86 points
For 2014-15 United came 4th (1.84 PPG) with 70 points(6 ahead of spurs), Chelsea won the league with 2.29 PPG with 87 Points, city were second With 79 points.
For 2015-16 City united tied in for 4th with 66 points(1.73 PPG). Leicestor won the league with 81 points(2.13 PPG), Arsenal were 2nd with 71 points.
So from above i expect the teams above us to at least falter because this pace is not maintainable. We on the other hand are on the correct path for a at least 3rd-4th finish in usually all the seasons. I do expect us to have a better 2nd half too.
Taking everything into account i think getting 75 points will be minimum for us to get top 4, 78 to be sure of it.
I very much doubt it. Any of the teams is better than in previous seasons and 75 pts wont' be enough this season. Even 78 pts may turn out to be insufficient because two teams may well finish on 78 pts. I reckon that Chelsea will get at least 85 pts and Liverpool 82-83. City are unpredictable and Arsenal, Spurs and United will win about 78 pts, IMO. It will be extremely tight.
The worst thing for you is that even if Liverpool lost against City and you they would probably still be above United. You just need to keep on winning and not look at the table.
I hate it when people overcomplicate football with numbers. Looking at the table is pointless at the moment since all the teams above us are winning.
Interesting analysis. In the last few years, points needed for top 4: 66, 65, 73, 73, 66. This year, it would seem to be closer to 72-75 like you say. Its doable but we will have to consistently put the other 14 teams to sword while playing decent against the other 5 teams.
I think 78 will get us 4th comfortably. Also still think pool will tail off in second half of the season.
Not if you feck up and do something outrageous like Klopp and all your lads whipping their johnsons out and pissing on the pitch due to a bad ref decision gone against you, then the FA would have to deduct some points for disgraceful behavior
Well if we're celebrating draws against West Brom, you never know.Not if you feck up and do something outrageous like Klopp and all your lads whipping their johnsons out and pissing on the pitch due to a bad ref decision gone against you, then the FA would have to deduct some points for disgraceful behavior
At home. You lot were rattled early and had one of those days. Wish you would have a few more of themBurnley beat us mate in the second game so plop goes that theory.
Its pretty head wrecking that none of the teams above us are dropping any points. The rate we are going City and Liverpool will somehow avoid dropping any points when they play against each other.
Still think 74 is the magic number we need to reach to get top 4. Completely doable if we beat Boro, will need us needing 2 points per game over the second half of the season.
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This is why 74-75 pts may be not enough to make the top 4 this season. There is a gap in quality between the top 6 and the rest so that even Soton struggle to get points at home vs the top 6. They lost from Chelsea and Spurs and were lucky to get a point vs Liverpool. Even the 6th team may finish on 76 + pts this season.
I , personally, think it may go to 76!
But as you say i think we are good enough to get that, but we have ZERO wiggle room now.
Why I think 75 points won't be enough. I expect all our rivals to reach that number.
There's actually been plenty, quite aside from our run of 2 wins in 11, liverpool lost to both Burnley and Bournemouth (despite being ahead in that match), City went a while where they couldnt win at home and were battered by Leicester. Its just that each time there has been one, we havent been able to capitalise, so the gaps never got smaller.
7 points separates 2nd and 6th and its 7 points that separate 6th to 7th.
7th to 14th is separated by 6 points which would suggest the top 6 are breaking away from the rest. Makes United dropping points to Burnley, Stoke and Watford look even more costly.
Dropping points at home vs Burley and Stoke is infuriating.
most infuriating game this season for me has been the Arsenal game. I Genuinely felt sick to my stomach when the equaliser went in
Yeah we definitely can't afford any more stupid dropped points, but I can also see us getting more than 38 in the final 19 games.
Be more clinical and we'll be fine. Easier said than done.
Tbh I was equally as infuriated after the Stoke and Burnley game.
1) 90
2) 82
3) 80
4) 79
5) 76
6) 76
I can see something like this.
2) 82
3) 80
4) 79
5) 76
6) 76
I can see something like this.
Clubelo.com calculates based on - Captain Obvious - ELO points. By nature, ELO points change each match day, depending on results and strength of the opposition played.
This is how current ELO points would project to actual points at the end of the season (http://clubelo.com/ManUnited):
1) Chelsea: 84.8
2) Liverpool: 77.0
3) Man City 76.4
4) Arsenal 76.2
5) Tottenham 71.9
6) United 67.0
7) Everton 54.1
...
This would be quite remarkable if it's anything like this:
Seven to eight points gap between Chelsea and top 2-4 which would be in an extremely close fight (Pool, City, Arsenal), then Spurs by 4 points distance, next United by 4-5 points distance, Everton 7th 13 (!) points behind United.
So it would mean Chelsea would only collect 35 points in 19 games (assuming they beat Stoke). I can see them slowing down, but still reaching 90 points.
Haha - that's exactly my response whenever anyone trots out with this ... 'managers will eventually learn to combat this system', as if they are thick as pigshit and need a season to get to grips with it and as if video playback is not available.
Hahahaha, oh feck me, *wipes away tears* hahahaha !
The weekend of 15-16 January may be big for us. We have Liverpool at home, City are away to Everton, Arsenal away to Swansea and Chelsea away to Leicester. With some luck we could close some of the distance between us and two or three of the teams above.
I find it strange that some posters on here seem to think that once United make the Top 4 (and I think they will quite soon, due to the vagaries of the schedule) that they will undoubtedly stay there and that as other teams' schedules ease up and United go through a tougher period, with the added pressure of LC, FAC and EL, that that won't have any influence.
For the record I think United will finish 4th but NOT if they have a strong EL run. Even with a much deeper squad I still think United may be caught up in Liverpool's situation last season, give everything going for the Top 4 or go for the EL resting some key players in the PL.
The bookies will have you down as losing further ground or treading water at best because those others will all be heavy favourites to win those games.
Could also end very badly for us.