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Brexited | the worst threads live the longest

Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

sammsky1

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Sweet Square

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How can I be wrong about something that hasn’t happened yet :confused: :lol:

Anyways aggregate poll of polls is a far superior indication than any snap poll which will have many inherent issues

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/pol...olls-says-most-now-want-to-stay-a4257476.html
Did you read the article ?

This lead grew to 54 to 46 in the first six months of 2019, with the gap narrowing slightly afterwards to 53 to 47.
The results suggest Remain would win a second referendum, but Leave could clinch it given the narrow gap, especially if it ran a better campaign as last time and got supporters out to vote in greater numbers.

Your argument.

I’m still utterly convinced that Remain easily wins a 2nd referendum, especially after a new round of campaigning. I mean exactly what will Leave campaign on?? Beyond racist jingoism, what are the benefits? This time around, Leave will be exposed for the xenophobic and charlatan scam it really is.
 

Sweet Square

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That is one poll which you seem to like posting
I posted two polls(These are the latest polls to have come out, thats why I posted them)

Whilst I think it would be a tight result, I’d be fairly confident of a remain win by a few percentage points.
Which is fine and I agree thats something that could happen. But there is nothing to suggest at the moment Remain would easily win another referendum.


I offered an opinion on something that hasnt happened yet. Hence I can’t be wrong.
:lol:


I like your optimism but its based sadly on nothing.
 

NWRed

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I posted two polls(These are the latest polls to have come out, thats why I posted them)


Which is fine and I agree thats something that could happen. But there is nothing to suggest at the moment Remain would easily win another referendum.



:lol:


I like your optimism but its based sadly on nothing.
Given that last time the remain campaign was fighting a fairytale like an easy trade deal, keeping all our money, sunny future and no problems but this time they'd be campaigning against a defined deal that it's easily provable would result in making us all poorer, that the supposed Brexit dividend will be dwarfed by the Brexit costs, that it will destroy manufacturing, that it will probably lead to the break up of the UK, that it will reduce our influence and prestige throughout the world, that the government wants to burn workers' rights, food standards and environmental protections and everything else that's wrong with Brexit, I think remain would win this time too.
 

rcoobc

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That is one poll which you seem to like posting



Whilst I think it would be a tight result, I’d be fairly confident of a remain win by a few percentage points.
Don't forget poll bias. I think there is a significant poll bias in favour of remain unfortunately
 
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Cheesy

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Given that last time the remain campaign was fighting a fairytale like an easy trade deal, keeping all our money, sunny future and no problems but this time they'd be campaigning against a defined deal that it's easily provable would result in making us all poorer, that the supposed Brexit dividend will be dwarfed by the Brexit costs, that it will destroy manufacturing, that it will probably lead to the break up of the UK, that it will reduce our influence and prestige throughout the world, that the government wants to burn workers' rights, food standards and environmental protections and everything else that's wrong with Brexit, I think remain would win this time too.
I think Remain would probably win a second referendum - as you say Brexit is now incredibly tarnished, and while it has its proponents, those proponents are espousing an increasingly negative vision in which anyone who doesn't conform to their grim worldview is incredibly treacherous.

But my concern with any Remain campaign is who leads it. Swinson is the leader of the biggest most explicitly pro-Remain party UK-wide, but isn't a great speaker and seems to have a fairly remarkable misunderstanding of a lot of the current ailments within the UK, and she's hardly an inspiring figure for Remainer leftists or younger people considering her coalition record. Sturgeon is solid on Remain issues, but obviously isn't going to lead either side in a UK-based campaign. Starmer is Labour's obvious choice, but then Labour as a whole continue to send out mixed messages on Brexit and don't know where they're at; Corbyn's Eurosceptic history would remain an attack point in any second vote.
 

Sweet Square

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Given that last time the remain campaign was fighting a fairytale like an easy trade deal, keeping all our money, sunny future and no problems but this time they'd be campaigning against a defined deal that it's easily provable would result in making us all poorer, that the supposed Brexit dividend will be dwarfed by the Brexit costs, that it will destroy manufacturing, that it will probably lead to the break up of the UK, that it will reduce our influence and prestige throughout the world, that the government wants to burn workers' rights, food standards and environmental protections and everything else that's wrong with Brexit, I think remain would win this time too.
I'm arguing against the idea anyone should be utterly convinced that Remain would easily win a 2nd referendum, not that Remain can't win.

Please tell me a Leave Manefesto beyond jingoism that can’t be debunked within a 60 second google search.
 

Paul the Wolf

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One thing is for sure, if the remain camp go at it with the same patronising tone of the last 3 years they will get walloped. They must outline what direction they think the EU is taking and why this is good. They will not win extra votes simply by talking about money
Or they could tell a complete pack of lies, worked for Leave last time.
 

sammsky1

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Or they could tell a complete pack of lies, worked for Leave last time.
Will be debunked with credible evidence this time around. Sure racists and xenophobes will fall for it, but that’s not enough for a majority.

No one will be able to claim any reason other than being a racist or xenophobic this time around.
 
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Paul the Wolf

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I agree in my opinion it's easier to work for the Leave campaign because you can sell this wonderful fantasy, whereas Remain you can only promise things will remain the same.
Quite, until things go considerably wrong these people will still cling on to the fantasy.


Will be debunked with credible evidence this time around. Sure racist figures will fall for it, but that’s not enough for a majority.

No one will be able to claim any reason other than being a racist or xenophobic this time around.
Not so sure, they will still say that the BoE and Osborne said the economy would collapse after the vote, which of course it wouldn't unless the Uk left straight after the vote but it will suffer when the UK actually leaves.
 

Volumiza

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No one will be able to claim any reason other than being a racist or xenophobic this time around.
Of course they will. Some of my best friends and a few family members voted leave. None are either racist or xenophobic. Such a lazy argument. Some people just want independence and full democratic control of their country’s destiny. And what is wrong with that? Seriously.
 

Pexbo

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I agree in my opinion it's easier to work for the Leave campaign because you can sell this wonderful fantasy, whereas Remain you can only promise things will remain the same.
This is why it’s such a travesty that Labour aren’t a remain party. Labour and the Lib Dem’s as Remain parties could both campaign on a platform of that remaining doesn’t mean things have to return to how they were in 2016. They can have bright future within the EU, with economic stability and all the extra money saved by cancelling Brexit can be flooded into the NHS and national infrastructure.

They could truthfully come up with their own “We could be spending £millions Brexit, but how about we use it to find the NHS” slogan on the side of a bus.

An impact report is going to have to be produced for Johnson’s deal, that in itself is going to write the Remain’s talking points.
 

sammsky1

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Of course they will. Some of my best friends and a few family members voted leave. None are either racist or xenophobic. Such a lazy argument. Some people just want independence and full democratic control of their country’s destiny. And what is wrong with that? Seriously.
They may have done before, and if they aren’t racist, it’s because they believed claims that have now been totally debunked.

What is wrong with that view is the catastrophic economic and societal impact it would have on the vast majority of people who didn’t vote for it (over 44 million).

If they cant explain what benefits Leave has to UK, I will think of them as racist, if they vote same in a future referendum.
 
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Adisa

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I am dead against Brexit but even me, I am tired of delaying. Get us another referendum or put us out of our misery.
 

Zarlak

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Does anyone have any idea yet what this is going to look like for Brits and the ability to work abroad? Fingers crossed my permanent residence for Canada goes through but if it doesn't go through in time and I have to return home while we wait, I'd rather go somewhere else other than back to the UK but if this goes through I've got the feeling I won't be able to just go elsewhere.
 

sun_tzu

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Does anyone have any idea yet what this is going to look like for Brits and the ability to work abroad? Fingers crossed my permanent residence for Canada goes through but if it doesn't go through in time and I have to return home while we wait, I'd rather go somewhere else other than back to the UK but if this goes through I've got the feeling I won't be able to just go elsewhere.
https://www.gov.uk/uk-nationals-living-eu
 

Buster15

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Does anyone have any idea yet what this is going to look like for Brits and the ability to work abroad? Fingers crossed my permanent residence for Canada goes through but if it doesn't go through in time and I have to return home while we wait, I'd rather go somewhere else other than back to the UK but if this goes through I've got the feeling I won't be able to just go elsewhere.
What has this actually got to do with you personally. You are not an MP are you. Hold your head up man.
 

NWRed

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rcoobc

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The polls looked wrong because they moved alot in last couple of weeks, and polls obviously lag behind as there is a delay between the poll being taken and the results being published.
.
The shy tories error remains though, because exit polls on those two general elections underestimated the tory outcome. Exit polls taking place at the same time and place as the actual vote.

The poll of polls did show Leave with a majority in early June 2016, but it had apparently turned into a 52:48% lead to Remain by the time the actual vote had taken place



In reality, obviously Leave was the 52:48 victor
 

rcoobc

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As for why they moved so much:


The bit from 1.37 to 2.10 really explains it, lying facebook ads repeatedly targetted at persuadables.
The *why* the polls move doesn't matter (whether that's trhough targetted Facebook ads, royal intervention, etc). The question we're asking is if there is a hidden bias (even now?) towards Leave.