SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[sullydnl]

Okay thought so. Yeah, I guess the more you let it spread the bigger/longer lockdown you need to control it. I reckon if at the initial outbreak, China and the govts had acted pro-actively they wouldn't have to take measures as severe as they've had to now (China have now been in lockdown for over a month IIRC).

For example, banning all flights from China at the end of January. Or if China themselves went into lockdown just a week earlier. But we're still delaying it, and i think the crash is going to be even more severe.

*By China i mean the province at the epicenter

Not moving early enough on these measures is a huge concern.

Though the other concern being expressed (which is particularly disputed in this thread) is that implementing severe measure too early will also carry risk precisely because they are so unsustainable. If extremely difficult measures are implemented early and then inevitably come to an end, what's the plan afterwards? Especially if the virus is just hitting its peak elsewhere at that point? The Deputy Chief Medical Officer today warned of the dangers of secondary peaks of the illness. One can only imagine how difficult it would be to return to the harshest measures for a second time when the population is only just recovering from the first bout.

 

[Revan]

But the tests are beautiful and everyone can have one? They’re almost as perfect as an incriminating falsified “transcription”!

 

[esmufc07]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[GDaly95]

Just occurred to me how mental it is that Liverpool Atletico isn't behind closed doors.

Surely they should've done that given the amount of cases in Madrid?

 

[justboy68]

Just in theory, how would a nationwide lockdown work? We've got mortgages and rents to pay, and general living costs. I guess, the living costs (outside of bills + food) get driven down in the event of a lockdown but what about mortgages and rent?

How has it worked in China?

I can't speak for Wuhan and Hubei province where the lockdown was much more severe, but here in Shanghai basically the vast majority are working from home if possible. This includes schools which are doing online lessons. You have to get a pass to leave and enter your apartment complex. The streets are far quieter than normal as you would expect although shops have started to open up again.

The situation is well under control here though, with barely any active cases and the main concern in Shanghai actually being 'back flow' cases, people being infected abroad and bringing it back.

I suspect though that many European countries in the next few weeks will have to go on stricter lockdowns more akin to Hubei province unfortunately, as the situation looks like it's going to be worse than it ever was here in Shanghai.

Edit: To add context, Shanghai with its 25 million plus people has just 21 active cases of the virus at the moment.

 

[Skills]

Not moving early enough on these measures is a huge concern.

Though the other concern being expressed (which is particularly disputed in this thread) is that implementing severe measure too early will also carry risk precisely because they are so unsustainable. If extremely difficult measures are implemented early and then inevitably come to an end, what's the plan afterwards? Especially if the virus is just hitting its peak elsewhere at that point? The Deputy Chief Medical Officer today warned of the dangers of secondary peaks of the illness. One can only imagine how difficult it would be to return to the harshest measures for a second time when the population is only just recovering from the first bout.

Is that mainly because we're saying the average person is far too stupid to understand the severity of it until 10s of thousands are infected and people in the 100s are dying daily?

I think this is where education is important. One of the first actions of the governments should've been to educate and bring the population along. But they've been sending the wrong messages out right from the start. The biggest promoters of the whole, 'it's not that serious, it's all under control' are the government's themselves.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Due to what? An economic collapse?

Yes, or widespread civil unrest.

 

[Revan]

The number of new cases in Italy has dropped by 15% from yesterday (and yesterday it was a large drop of 50% from the day before). I was scared that yesterday was an outlier, it seems that instead, it could be a trend and that the quarantines in some cities set 10 days ago are having effects. With the new quarantine measures, hopefully, we can see the number of new cases going to double digits per day by the end of the month.

On the other hand, China had a raise today after many days of decreasing. It is not that bad (only 36 new cases), but it is worse than yesterday. Spain and Germany have both increases, and we can expect them to reach Italy numbers very soon (in the case of Spain maybe by the end of the week). A total lockdown should be implemented everywhere as soon as possible. Leave the supermarkets and pharmacies open, close down everything else.

Finally, on Italy the mortality rate is 6.6%, much higher than the global rate (3.4%) or South Korea's one (0.7%). It shows clearly how things can turn ugly if hospitals get overwhelmed.

 

[Fiskey]

The number of new cases in Italy has dropped by 15% from yesterday (and yesterday it was a large drop of 50% from the day before). I was scared that yesterday was an outlier, it seems that instead, it could be a trend and that the quarantines in some cities set 10 days ago are having effects. With the new quarantine measures, hopefully, we can see the number of new cases going to double digits per day by the end of the month.

On the other hand, China had a raise today after many days of decreasing. It is not that bad (only 36 new cases), but it is worse than yesterday. Spain and Germany have both increases, and we can expect them to reach Italy numbers very soon (in the case of Spain maybe by the end of the week). A total lockdown should be implemented everywhere as soon as possible. Leave the supermarkets and pharmacies open, close down everything else.

Finally, on Italy the mortality rate is 6.6%, much higher than the global rate (3.4%) or South Korea's one (0.7%). It shows clearly how things can turn ugly if hospitals get overwhelmed.

The death rate and new cases rate seems strange, are enough people being tested? Lots of people said South Korea has the best testing regime in the world.

 

[11101]

The number of new cases in Italy has dropped by 15% from yesterday (and yesterday it was a large drop of 50% from the day before). I was scared that yesterday was an outlier, it seems that instead, it could be a trend and that the quarantines in some cities set 10 days ago are having effects. With the new quarantine measures, hopefully, we can see the number of new cases going to double digits per day by the end of the month.

On the other hand, China had a raise today after many days of decreasing. It is not that bad (only 36 new cases), but it is worse than yesterday. Spain and Germany have both increases, and we can expect them to reach Italy numbers very soon (in the case of Spain maybe by the end of the week). A total lockdown should be implemented everywhere as soon as possible. Leave the supermarkets and pharmacies open, close down everything else.

Finally, on Italy the mortality rate is 6.6%, much higher than the global rate (3.4%) or South Korea's one (0.7%). It shows clearly how things can turn ugly if hospitals get overwhelmed.

I'm afraid you are mistaken. Italy had 2300 new cases today, although around 600 are leftovers from the day before when reports were not filed in time. It amounts to an increase of around 1700 per day for the last three days. Hopefully it signals the end of the exponential increase, but even if it does there is still a long way to go.

One positive is that the original outbreak areas that were quarantined have seen a huge reduction in cases, so quarantine does work.

Italy have also stopped testing people who dont show symptoms, so the fatality numbers will be skewed.

 

[Bosws87]

One thing I’ve learnt when this is over is an overall mortality rate shouldn’t be the thing plastered over the news its gives the risk groups a false sense of security. If the news was telling the older generation there’s a 15/20% chance of fatality in that age range they would pay a lot more notice.

some of the most stubborn people are the ones that should be worried the most but they will quote 3% I’ll take my chances in reality it’s nothing like that.

 

[sullydnl]

Is that mainly because we're saying the average person is far too stupid to understand the severity of it until 10s of thousands are infected and people in the 100s are dying daily?

I think this is where education is important. One of the first actions of the governments should've been to educate and bring the population along. But they've been sending the wrong messages out right from the start. The biggest promoters of the whole, 'it's not that serious, it's all under control' are the government's themselves.

Well, I'm sure the stupidity of people is one of the reasons. You just have to look at the example someone posted earlier in the thread where one of their employees was refusing to self-isolate for two weeks because "life's too short". You can imagine how people that dense would react to extended restrictions. Plus when you think of the potential for people to panic one can also imagine why it would be preferable to gradually ramp things rather than jumping straight into harsh measures. Though as you say, some of the government messaging seems to have gone too far the other way.

But even if everyone is was very calm and sensible, there's still only so long a country can last in lockdown conditions given the disruption it causes to pretty much every aspect of life.

 

[Revan]

I'm afraid you are mistaken. Italy had 2300 new cases today, although around 600 are leftovers from the day before when reports were not filed in time. It amounts to an increase of around 1700 per day for the last three days. Hopefully it signals the end of the exponential increase, but even if it does there is still a long way to go.

One positive is that the original outbreak areas that were quarantined have seen a huge reduction in cases, so quarantine does work.

Italy have also stopped testing people who dont show symptoms, so the fatality numbers will be skewed.

Yes, unfortunately, I am. It was 800 something when I checked, but now got updated to 2313, which is higher than any other day. If there are 600 from yesterday, it means that today are 1700 cases, while yesterday was around 1600 (it was close to 1000 yesterday, so if we add 1600). It is still higher than yesterday, which is worrying, but it is better than 2 days ago.

 

[Smores]

One thing I’ve learnt when this is over is an overall mortality rate shouldn’t be the thing plastered over the news its gives the risk groups a false sense of security. If the news was telling the older generation there’s a 15/20% chance of fatality in that age range they would pay a lot more notice.

some of the most stubborn people are the ones that should be worried the most but they will quote 3% I’ll take my chances in reality it’s nothing like that.

A very good point. I'd also extend that and say perhaps with that angle the non-risk group would also be a bit more altruistic and caring in their response.

 

[Stactix]

One question I had is how long is it taking for tests to come back in the UK?
I saw on a BBC article a few days back that it was 2-3 days, With todays video from the old guy saying they'll ramp up tests to 10k a day with results taking 48 hours.

A week behind if you consider the average incubation period of 5 days and then potentially 48 hours before results.

 

[BusbyMalone]

So Madrid has gone into lockdown with schools and colleges closing, La Liga games to be played behind closed doors and Atletico fans are allowed to travel to the UK to watch their team play Liverpool.

Seems legit

 

[A-man]

Just occurred to me how mental it is that Liverpool Atletico isn't behind closed doors.

Surely they should've done that given the amount of cases in Madrid?

It really is mental. Already yesterday some countries included Madrid in their travel restrictions and in the company I work, were not allowed to travel to Spain anymore.

 

[spiriticon]

oh my days.. 6160 new cases worldwide and 316 deaths so far today and there's still another 6 hours to go

 

[The Firestarter]

In Bulgaria currently and we've been quite lucky in a sense, as there has been an epidemic of the "normal" flu for the past couple of weeks and schools have been closed since. I guess that's limited the spread of covid somewhat.

However, schools are reopening next week and the official stance of the administration is that kids should go to school and also people should work as normal until they get a positive probe (even in case they've been tested, they should go to work until the results are our). The argument is that an economic collapse is the biggest threat and also "this is what they're doing all around the world".

There doesn't seem to be much of an opposition to that. Generally the attitude is quite nonchalant.

What do you expect with the pumpkin in charge.

 

[shaky]

Finally, on Italy the mortality rate is 6.6%, much higher than the global rate (3.4%) or South Korea's one (0.7%). It shows clearly how things can turn ugly if hospitals get overwhelmed.

I'd assume the real worldwide mortality rate is close to the 0.7% that S Korea are recording. Every death by the virus will be in the official figures of each country but every occurence of the virus won't be, possibly not even the majority of them. South Korea are the ones doing the most testing so you'd think their figures are the most accurate. There are probably 1000s of undocumented cases of the virus in Italy that nobody has died from, which skew the figures to make the mortality rate look much worse than it actually is.

 

[Arruda]

Most people who are diminishing this with stuff like 1"% or "just the elderlies and sick" aren't evil or callous, just not enough inteligent to comprehend the numbers and abstractly imagine the various scenarios on their minds.

 

[berbatrick]

This is doing the rounds on medical whatsapp groups. Seems legit to me.



Full of jargon but you’ll get the jist of it. CM = cardiomyopathy, which I’m hearing about more and more. The virus seems to be directly cardiotoxic in the very unwell and that’s what kills them rather than ARDS.

Also confirms what we’re hearing from Italy. Being old/frail makes you more likely to end up in hospital but being young, fit, healthy is no guarantee that you won’t end up on a ventilator or dead.

I'm on a bunch of daily steroids for my asthma, I'm guessing that makes it worse for me if I get hit?

 

[Revan]

Funny guy. I am going off the information received. If this becomes as bad as you guys assume it to get too I have said many times I would admit I was wrong on the topic.

god forbid someone has a different opinion or view...am i right

I think that climate change is a hoax, going by the information received. I think we should all start burning coal, again, based on received information.

If we are wrong, and climate change is real and it gets as bad as you guys assume, I would admit I was wrong in the topic.

god forbid someone has a different opinion or view...am I right

 

[Penna]

Latest from Italy as of 17.00 hours. The green (Guariti) are people who have recovered, the red (Deceduti) are deaths, the grey (Tamponi) are the number of tests.

Ricoverati con sintomi - Recovering with symptoms

Terapia Intensiva - In intensive care

Isolamento domiciliare - In isolation at home

https://www.thelocal.it/20200309/map-which-parts-of-italy-are-affected-by-coronavirus-outbreak

 

[MikeUpNorth]

10 UK dead now

 

[sullydnl]

9 new cases in Ireland today bringing the total to 43 from just over 2300 tests. The amount of community transmissions appears to be quite low.

 

[Rado_N]

So Madrid has gone into lockdown with schools and colleges closing, La Liga games to be played behind closed doors and Atletico fans are allowed to travel to the UK to watch their team play Liverpool.

Seems legit

This really is monumentally stupid. How on earth are they not being made to play behind closed doors and fans stopped from travelling?

 

[MikeUpNorth]

So Madrid has gone into lockdown with schools and colleges closing, La Liga games to be played behind closed doors and Atletico fans are allowed to travel to the UK to watch their team play Liverpool.

Seems legit

I'm furious about this. So unnecessary and will literally result in British people's deaths.

 

[rcoobc]

Most people who are diminishing this with stuff like 1"% or "just the elderlies and sick" aren't evil or callous, just not enough inteligent to comprehend the numbers and abstractly imagine the various scenarios on their minds.

Possibly, or possibly they see the inevitability of it.

Everyday we balance risk with convince, everything we drive a car, or cross a road. They have a high platitude for risk.

We don't stop the world economy for the flu. We would stop it for ebola. Everything else is negotiation

 

[cyberman]

9 new cases in Ireland today bringing the total to 43 from just over 2300 tests. The amount of community transmissions appears to be quite low.

Being a culchie island, outside of Dublin, could really save our asses.

 

[Code-CX]

I'm genuinely bewildered as to the ineptness of most governments. It's like everyone is trying to play a game of who's the most incompetent, and they somehow keep one-upping each other.

Disgusting.

 

[TheReligion]

Yes was signed by Matt Hancock on 10th Feb 2020 - valid for 2 years
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-the-public
https://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/129/contents/made
The Health Protection (Coronavirus) Regulations 2020 have been put in place to reduce the risk of further human-to-human transmission in this country by keeping individuals in isolation where public health professionals believe there is a reasonable risk an individual may have the virus.

Has been useful for GPs as we have quite a few patients trying to bypass 111 by lying as to the pretext of their appointment, not disclosing their travel history to receptionists.

Essentially from my understanding that anybody who fails to comply with quarantine or other restrictions, provides misleading info or obstructs somebody doing their job commits an offense.

It is quite broad but essentially you can be forcibly restricted to your home or detained for treatment by force if needed. It provides constables with power to enter and detain those at risk to public health anywhere.

It seems the legislation is only valid if an imminent serious risk is declared by the secretary of state.

 

[esmufc07]

I'm furious about this. So unnecessary and will literally result in British people's deaths.

I can't imagine you being anything other than immeasurably calm!

 

[Irwin99]

Most people who are diminishing this with stuff like 1"% or "just the elderlies and sick" aren't evil or callous, just not enough inteligent to comprehend the numbers and abstractly imagine the various scenarios on their minds.

To me it should be a very basic level of comprehension- if you're young and you're a carrier of this virus you could spread this to other people who are far more vulnerable. I feel like asking these people do you have any grandparents/uncles/aunts or relatives with health problems? What about your friends too, same question? It may be just a 'cold' to you but it could be a death sentence to someone else. Not to mention the demands on the NHS and economy putting a huge strain on society. It's not the end of the world but it's pretty scary the damage this could do.

 

[Fully Fledged]

Wut? Guns arent allowed in most public facilities and things like hospitals.

Not to mention other than the notion being somewhat ridiculous - malpractice lawsuits are so egregious here any doc would think twice and thrice about denying treatment.

Looking at you insurance policy Mr Smith there is no mention of Covid 19 treatment.
Treatment will cost you $200,000.
That is the triage in a country where you pay for your medical care at the point of treatment. Can you afford it.

 

[djembatheking]

I'm furious about this. So unnecessary and will literally result in British people's deaths.

It is nuts , a mate of mine has gone , he`s 72 years old, season ticket holder a fanatical old scouser but a really nice old guy . he has a heart condition too . Says it all really , the only way to keep him away would be to play behind closed doors .

 

[Vidic_In_Moscow]

You seem to be missing the point. The main way in which people are comparing mortality between influenza and COVID-19 is by something called CFR. This is the Case Fatality Rate. The key word here is "Case". The CFR is the % of confirmed cases that end up dead. For influenza this is around 0.1 to 0.2%. For COVID-19 the CFR globally (according to the WHO) is estimated at 3.4% The influenza CFR is much more reliable because it's based on analysis of a much larger pool of data, over a long period of time but it is just as likely as the COVID-19 CFR to exclude mild cases i.e. people like you and me who regularly get "man flu" but never end up being seen by a doctor, never mind having swabs sent off to confirm the diagnosis. Hence mild cases of both types of COVID-19 and influenza don't get included in the calculation because they never end up having a test to confirm the cause of their illness.

Gotcha

 

[Fully Fledged]

Watching Mat Hancock live. The guy sitting behind him with the red tie coughing into his hand.

 

[Pexbo]

Watching Mat Hancock live. The guy sitting behind him with the red tie coughing into his hand.

Coughing into Hancock’s hand? Amazing if true.

 

[sullydnl]

Being a culchie island, outside of Dublin, could really save our asses.

Youngest population in Europe too, I think, which should also help keep deaths down.