SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Ainu]

Just occurred to me how mental it is that Liverpool Atletico isn't behind closed doors.

Surely they should've done that given the amount of cases in Madrid?

So Madrid has gone into lockdown with schools and colleges closing, La Liga games to be played behind closed doors and Atletico fans are allowed to travel to the UK to watch their team play Liverpool.

Seems legit

It's completely absurd and depressing. You see the reports coming from Madrid, just how bad it's getting there, and then let a couple thousand people from that place visit to sit really really really close together with several ten thousand other people. Who comes up with that shit? It's hard to accept, especially considering the measures being taken all over Europe, for example in the arts and music industry where pretty much everything is getting canceled, which will likely lead to quite a few permanent closures down the line. But the ultra rich football industry doesn't care.

 

[Sarni]

@Sarni, you need to inform her manager that she's intending to ignore the self-isolation rule. It doesn't matter if she's mad about it, we all have to protect vulnerable people from stupid, selfish people.

Sure I will, I am actually responsible for BCP for my whole floor for coronavirus so it’s one my responsibilities. Today I had to lecture my whole team on the importance of not randomly going to the shopping mall to check whether there are any good deals available during breaks, and told them they have to take their computers back home every single day in case they get sick because I don’t really care if they ‘feel confident they can beat it at their age’. I will probably force my whole team to work from home from Monday anyway.

 

[Penna]

Sure I will, I am actually responsible for BCP for my whole floor for coronavirus so it’s one my responsibilities. Today I had to lecture my whole team on the importance of not randomly going to the shopping mall to check whether there are any good deals available during breaks, and told them they have to take their computers back home every single day in case they get sick because I don’t really care if they ‘feel confident they can beat it at their age’. I will probably force my whole team to work from home from Monday anyway.

Good for you, it's a shame not everybody with staff under their management will do the same.

 

[11101]

Mate was telling me that someone got tested positive for Covid-19 & their brother who lives with the infected patient (works with my mate) called 111 & said he’s not got any symptoms so what’s the advice. He got told to carry on as normal until they show symptoms.

Now I’m no expert, but I’m sure I’ve read symptoms can take up to 5 days to emerge & you can still spread it to others whilst not showing symptoms yourself. Surely the advice would be self-isolate for at least 5 days to make sure you don’t have it?! I really think people aren’t getting the right advice and/or are just being very easy about the whole thing whilst potentially infecting so many others.

You can, but latest thinking is that its extremely rare for it to transmit before symptoms show.

Still, that's pretty ridiculous advice. In Italy they are putting you in full quarantine if you had contact with somebody who had contact with a positive patient.

 

[Arruda]

How did we not stop for Ebola? Which time? We have stopped it and stopepd for it a bunch of times.

Stopping for Ebola and stopping Ebola are two different things.

 

[hp88]

As a Doctor who works in Liverpool it boggles my mind that the game is going on tonight with a full crowd including Atleti fans . Just absolute madness and pathetic decision making all around. I love football but this is just non sensical and asking for trouble

It's madness, Spain are postponing games due to a risk of it spreading and we are inviting their fans over.

I am hoping the airports are screening on the way in and out of the country.

 

[Chip]

Denmark going into lockdown now as well...

 

[OutlawGER]

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This is exactly what is happening in Germany and probably the whole west.

 

[Fully Fledged]

It's madness, Spain are postponing games due to a risk of it spreading and we are inviting their fans over.

I am hoping the airports are screening on the way in and out of the country.

They are not.

 

[Revan]

This is a brilliant post in the other Coronavirus thread. The key issue is that people just don't seem to understand exponential growth, and how acting early is your most effective defence.

It is an amazing article, easily the best I have seen so far on the topic.
It should be mandatory reading for every politician and other decision-makers.

 

[Skills]

In general I would imagine it's all very context dependent? The UK spokesperson today said their implementation of measures was based on data modelling of how best to push back the peak of the virus. Given that different countries would presumably be using different models and different data, you'd probably expect different timings in terms of implementing measures?

For example, let's say we accept that the coronavirus is going to be around regardless of what we do for X months and at some point every country will have to implement the harshest measures. One would imagine the optimal time for implementing the harshest measures within that time frame would vary from country to country depending on the circumstances. So a country like Ireland (with a younger population, more rural and relatively few community transmissions) would probably benefit more from a later implementation of those measures than a different country (say where there's a older, urban population with a higher degree of early community transmissions). It wouldn't make sense for me for them all to take the same "go heavy as soon as possible" approach when the pattern and timing of the illness could vary to such a degree.

Maybe they're also taking into account other factors, like trying to time the peak of the virus within the country for a time when they think there will be lower strain on the healthcare service from other illnesses? Or (if they really do believe that the virus may lull in the summer months) trying to time it so that the harshest measures end as the peak subsides?

I really have zero clue and am just speculating but intuitively it makes sense to me that it would be more complicated than just going hard and early.

See, I'm sure they are basing this on some data modeling. But I'm close to certain those models would've also been based on some assumptions that the low restrictions would've been 'effectively' put in place. They haven't - case in point, we've just let in 1000s of people from a European hotspot city into the country for a fecking football match today, allowing them to mingle and be in close contact with another 60k people. This kind of shit throws models off.

I'm sure if they had implemented a lot of the low levels (i.e. banned all travel in and out of the high risk countries, like Italy etc) there would've been a later optimum time to put in place harsh restrictions. But they haven't done, or whatever they have done hasn't been as effective. But as we're seeing in Italy, as soon as the total infected individuals gets past a 1000, the thing explodes because you've got so many infectious carriers out there.

 

[BusbyMalone]

It's completely absurd and depressing. You see the reports coming from Madrid, just how bad it's getting there, and then let a couple thousand people from that place visit to sit really really really close together with several ten thousand other people. Who comes up with that shit? It's hard to accept, especially considering the measures being taken all over Europe, for example in the arts and music industry where pretty much everything is getting canceled, which will likely lead to quite a few permanent closures down the line. But the ultra rich football industry doesn't care.

Well football around Europe seem to be taking measures by playing behind closed doors. It’s this country that appears to be sleeping on it. Don’t know what the feck they’re waiting for.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

At this point, I’d hold more credibility to The Who (band) giving me Covid19 info than the World Health Organisation.

People try to shut us down - Talking 'bout my Generation
Just because we travel 'round - Talking 'bout my Generation
They say it only affects those who are old - Talking 'bout my Generation
Hope we don't die and get to grow old - Talking 'bout my Generation

Very interesting video on youtube by Joe Rogan with this expert on infectious diseases from America. It is worth checking out.

One point he says is that he suspects that even if you shut down a region or even country like Chinese did, the virus will still return when you open up the doors again so to speak. As in once China lifts the shutdown, it will return to China again.

I think this will affect travel measures, Globally, for literally years to come. Anytime another pocket of this flares up (as it will now continue to do so), the area will NEED to be isolated.

The restrictions will become the norm. I this is essentially our era's defining moment.

As a Doctor who works in Liverpool it boggles my mind that the game is going on tonight with a full crowd including Atleti fans . Just absolute madness and pathetic decision making all around. I love football but this is just non sensical and asking for trouble

I know, it's utterly fecking insane. And so good to hear a medical professional, in Liverpool stating this @TMDaines

I'm truly impressed by China. They are operating on a different level.

They are (now) operating how any World Superpower Government in the scientific age should be operating.

China, U.S, UK etc have more power and more resources than at any other time in the World's history - many of these Governments have behaved utterly disgracefully through this awful situation thus far.

 

[Charlie Foley]

Picking up a thermometer the other day was my best idea yet. Very comforting to get a low/normal temperature

 

[sullydnl]

See, I'm sure they are basing this on some data modeling. But I'm close to certain those models would've also been based on some assumptions that the low restrictions would've been 'effectively' put in place. They haven't - case in point, we've just let in 1000s of people from a European hotspot city into the country for a fecking football match today, allowing them to mingle and be in close contact with another 60k people. This kind of shit throws models off.

I'm sure if they had implemented a lot of the low levels (i.e. banned all travel in and out of the high risk countries, like Italy etc) there would've been a later optimum time to put in place harsh restrictions. But they haven't done, or whatever they have done hasn't been as effective. But as we're seeing in Italy, as soon as the total infected individuals gets past a 1000, the thing explodes because you've got so many infectious carriers out there.

Yep, that's true too. Even if you have a good plan you can feck it up by implementing it badly. Particularly in terms of placing travel restrictions on countries like Italy, I don't see what the downside would have been. It's not like it would be that intrusive or damaging a measure.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

Denmark shutting down universities and schools for 2 weeks apparently

 

[Revan]

The state I originally come from (Kosovo), just went semi-quarantine mode (similar to Italy) despite no official cases yet. Very proud of the government's decision to act before it is too late.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

Even though I want to blame the government it's a lot to do with attitude of football fans in general themselves. PSG fans in thousands outside the stadium tonight. I promise that Liverpool would have the same scenes if they banned people inside the stadium. I am part of the hospital where a surgeon came back from a holiday in Italy and went to work only to test positive 4 days later

 

[RobinLFC]

The state I originally come from (Kosovo), just went semi-quarantine mode (similar to Italy) despite no official cases yet. Very proud of the government's decision to act before it is too late.

Admirable, but for how long? Chances are it’s gonna be even worse in two or three weeks. We don’t know yet at this point - are they gonna keep the inhabitants in quarantine for 1,5 month, or even longer than that?

 

[Fully Fledged]

Well football around Europe seem to be taking measures by playing behind closed doors. It’s this country that appears to be sleeping on it. Don’t know what the feck they’re waiting for.

The PSG fans might not be allowed in the ground but they are still at the match.

 

[Revan]

Admirable, but for how long? Chances are it’s gonna be even worse in two or three weeks. We don’t know yet at this point - are they gonna keep the inhabitants in quarantine for 1,5 month, or even longer than that?

So far it is only until 27th of March.

I expect that the academic year is effectively over regardless of the countries, just that people are having a hard time getting used to it. I don't know how we will deal when the production will suffer, but I expect the mass meetings, sports events, restaurants and so on to be closed for the entire year.

 

[Skills]

Even though I want to blame the government it's a lot to do with attitude of football fans in general themselves. PSG fans in thousands outside the stadium tonight. I promise that Liverpool would have the same scenes if they banned people inside the stadium. I am part of the hospital where a surgeon came back from a holiday in Italy and went to work only to test positive 4 days later

I think it's the general attitude of people now. I think in many ways this will be a watershed moment for western civilisation, where for the last 10 years especially we've let stupidity run wild under the disguise of "freedom". Anti-Vaxers being the face of this stupidity, so if anything positive is to come out of it is that people start to listen to qualified professionals.

 

[madzo2007]

Irish Government warning against all but essential travel to areas of Spain - Madrid, Vitoria & Labastida in the Basque Country and La Rioja.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Heard an interesting point about why the timing/extent of forced social isolation is such a tough call. The aim is to flatten the curve but the worry is that we might just delay the peak by several months. If it coincides with the seasonal influenza peak next winter then resources will be much more stretched.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Heard an interesting point about why the timing/extent of forced social isolation is such a tough call. The aim is to flatten the curve but the worry is that we might just delay the peak by several months. If it coincides with the seasonal influenza peak next winter then resources will be much more stretched.

British medical advisors have openly been saying they're trying to manufacture it so that the peak hits this summer. Like you say, they actually want it to hit us full force in a couple of months time, rather than playing constant whack-a-mole with outbreaks.

Obviously this plan turns to shit if infection doesn't confer significant long-lasting immunity.

 

[Revan]

Heard an interesting point about why the timing/extent of forced social isolation is such a tough call. The aim is to flatten the curve but the worry is that we might just delay the peak by several months. If it coincides with the seasonal influenza peak next winter then resources will be much more stretched.

Interesting point.

To be fair, I don't think that we can totally delay it that long (unless we go full Wuhan, which is not gonna happen), so I guess that a natural spread is going to happen assuming that some protective measures are put on place.

 

[Pexbo]

Heard an interesting point about why the timing/extent of forced social isolation is such a tough call. The aim is to flatten the curve but the worry is that we might just delay the peak by several months. If it coincides with the seasonal influenza peak next winter then resources will be much more stretched.

So it’s actually possible that they are almost encouraging the spread by allowing some events to happen? The sooner it peaks the sooner it declines?

 

[Balljy]

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That's seriously crazy. 10 days with a fever and still waiting for the test that was promised near the start, never mind the results!

 

[Revan]

British medical advisors have openly been saying they're trying to manufacture it so that the peak hits this summer. Like you say, they actually want it to hit us full force in a couple of months time, rather than playing constant whack-a-mole with outbreaks.

Obviously this plan turns to shit if infection doesn't confer significant long-lasting immunity.

That is extremely important. If we don't get immunity from it, then I don't see how society continues. You cannot expect to get quarantined forever, and it is a bit disturbing having a disease (that infects half and kills 1-5% of the infected) lurking around every year.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

That is extremely important. If we don't get immunity from it, then I don't see how society continues. You cannot expect to get quarantined forever, and it is a bit disturbing having a disease (that infects half and kills 1-5% of the infected) lurking around every year.

Then it would just be a race for an effective antiviral treatment or possibly a vaccine.

 

[RobinLFC]

So far it is only until 27th of March.

I expect that the academic year is effectively over regardless of the countries, just that people are having a hard time getting used to it. I don't know how we will deal when the production will suffer, but I expect the mass meetings, sports events, restaurants and so on to be closed for the entire year.

Dunno about schools, they’ve reverted to webinars in Belgium and exams in June are expected to go on in one way or another.

Think you’re right about the rest though yeah.

 

[Maagge]

Denmark going into lockdown now as well...

Denmark shutting down universities and schools for 2 weeks apparently

Yup from Friday schools and universities are closed, and all non-essential public employees are send home. All non-urgent surgeries are postponed as well.
Fingers crossed the timing is right.

 

[Arruda]

That is extremely important. If we don't get immunity from it, then I don't see how society continues. You cannot expect to get quarantined forever, and it is a bit disturbing having a disease (that infects half and kills 1-5% of the infected) lurking around every year.

Something will slow it down. Milder strains will be selected by evolution.

 

[redshaw]

I'd hope UK block Real fans coming here next week for the City Real game.

The situation over there is very bad and they've stopped fans going to games. 2222 cases, 54 deaths, nearly half of the cases in Madrid last I read a few days ago,, they announce 400-500 cases per day now. God knows what it'll be like next week but UK should make it known not to come tomorrow.

 

[Rado_N]

I'd hope UK block Real fans coming here next week for the City Real game.

The situation over there is very bad and they've stopped fans going to games. 2222 cases, 54 deaths, nearly half of the cases in Madrid last I read a few days ago,, they announce 400-500 cases per day now. God knows what it'll be like next week but UK should make it known not to come tomorrow.

They should have already done that ahead of tonight’s game. It’s genuinely outrageous that Atleti fans are over here.

 

[11101]

Yup from Friday schools and universities are closed, and all non-essential public employees are send home. All non-urgent surgeries are postponed as well.
Fingers crossed the timing is right.

I doubt it is enough. Italy did all those things 2 weeks ago and it made no difference. The only areas that have shown improvement are those that went into total shutdown. I am pretty sure that's why they have closed the whole country, they know its the only thing that works.

 

[Coxy]

Some idiot in my parents home town came home from a skiing holiday in Italy. Was told to self-isolate with the rest of his family, but instead decided he didn't need to so went to the local pubs etc. Anyway it was confirmed yesterday he has the virus - first case in the town. What a selfish git.

 

[Maagge]

I doubt it is enough. Italy did all those things 2 weeks ago and it made no difference. The only areas that have shown improvement are those that went into total shutdown. I am pretty sure that's why they have closed the whole country, they know its the only thing that works.

It's hard to say. I get the feeling the Danish government have acted slightly ahead of the Italian timeline, if that makes sense. Probably due to what's unfolding in southern Europe right now.
At least Danes aren't very social, I guess.

 

[redshaw]

They should have already done that ahead of tonight’s game. It’s genuinely outrageous that Atleti fans are over here.

I know, I've posted my concerns days ago before anyone else. Shame people are only commenting now while the game takes place.
My focus is on next week now.

I don't need a boost in infected people putting my mum at more risk, she has underlying conditions, just so some people can watch Real kick a bag of wind about Eastlands.

To be fair, the lax government, ineffective phone line advice/action, airports and people here who just don't give a feck to self isolate coming back from holiday, we're probably looking at a big acceleration soon.

 

[Top]

Things are getting crazy in Denmark, people are storming the super markets and grocery stores.