SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[sullydnl]

I've no problem with them writing that. It's an objective fact which a journalist has every right to discuss, as difficult or as controversial as that might be. In this case i don't think they were being malicious and you have to remember that the Telegraph's audience primarily consists of people in those brackets (elderly) so I don't think they are trying to incite the public to treat these people with contempt.

My issue is less with them presenting that information and more the way it was expressed. For example, the use of the word "culling" in this context is less than appropriate.

 

[11101]

Just playing the odds it seems. Most self-isolating now for 7 days won’t have the coronavirus, and most that did will no longer spread it after 7 days. Absolutely there will be many that do have it and go on to spread it after 7 days in self isolation.

The aim is not to eradicate transmission. That is not possible. The aim is to bring the reproductive number under 1. Presumably the government scientists think that can be done by bringing these measures in.

Only in Korea, China and Italy where the cases are already beyond the capacity of the health services do they need to act more aggressively, and the people are willing to accept it. In the early days of restrictions people in Italy mostly ignored them because they weren't scared of the virus. It doesn't sound like people in the UK are either.

 

[11101]

Business as usual today in hospitals. Slightly unbelievable. We know this thing is in the community. They are risking passing this on to nurses, junior doctors, registrars and consultants. All of whom will be now expected to isolate for 7 days at the mere sign now of high fever or recurrent cough which honestly will mean last minutes sick calls that rota coordinators will not be able to get replacements/locums in for and massive harm to patients now let alone when this thing is at its peak.

If you don't want to do social isolation in certain respects then fine, but surely flattening the curve can be achieved in numerous more ways than has been currently proposed. Saddest part of this all is it won't be made political when its entirely political that chronic underinvestment in our critical care and other aspects of NHS will lead to deaths.

Doctors in Italy are now working during their quarantine. I'm not sure how/what they are able to do but the hospitals can't afford to have them sitting at home anymore.

 

[hungrywing]

Business as usual today in hospitals. Slightly unbelievable. We know this thing is in the community. They are risking passing this on to nurses, junior doctors, registrars and consultants. All of whom will be now expected to isolate for 7 days at the mere sign now of high fever or recurrent cough which honestly will mean last minutes sick calls that rota coordinators will not be able to get replacements/locums in for and massive harm to patients now let alone when this thing is at its peak.

If you don't want to do social isolation in certain respects then fine, but surely flattening the curve can be achieved in numerous more ways than has been currently proposed. Saddest part of this all is it won't be made political when its entirely political that chronic underinvestment in our critical care and other aspects of NHS will lead to deaths.

No testing accompanying the bold part?

 

[Di Maria's angel]

There are comments which allude to how prepared South Korea were for such an outbreak.

fecking ridiculous that the message me spouted months back was that the UK was well prepared to deal with this. Bullshit.

 

[TMDaines]

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I mean that’s healthcare commissioning in a nutshell. We make difficult decisions all the time about where to invest to deliver the most QALYs (quality-adjusted life years). Resources are finite.

There’s more compassionate ways of putting it, but the long standing gallows humour is that a harsh winter actually benefits the NHS long term.

 

[horsechoker]

That's an extremely scary factor, Is there factual evidence that immunity is guranteed because if that is not the case 10000s in the UK will die for little to no reason apart from keeping the economy running for a few more days.
Of little surprise with this government though.

As far as I know, no. There might be immunity but I don't think it's been verified and there's been cases of people getting infected again.

 

[Flying high]

There's so much noise around all this, it's hard to get reliable information without turning into a full time researcher.

Can anyone answer some of these questions:

Is there any chance(with harsh measures) that the virus could be wiped out worldwide?
How much difference does warmer weather make to the transmission of the virus?
How likely is mutation of the virus? Is mutation random or is there any level of predictability?
What percentage of people who contract the virus and survive, become immune? Does this depend on mutations?

 

[Prometheus]

Geez, the British government doesn't have a version of science to which only they are privy.

 

[Dan_F]

In Spain and France due to high amount of deaths there's probably around 50,000 cases or more. Surely you're clever enough to understand that?

I'm showing info to show UK is possibly just not there yet, might be 1 week or 4 before we move to other measures. Nearly all countries have limited testing requirements and kits available and UK testing was in line with Italy's testing last week when Italy had 79 deaths and 2500 cases while we had 300 cases and 5 deaths. Italy positivity rate was 10-11% at around 25k tested and UK was 1.3%, for a mild situation in the UK and the grave one in Italy as of the first week of March we had done a good amount of testing. Other countries refuse to let the testing amounts known, probably because they're low.

So we should let things like Cheltenham happen till we get to a stage where it’s spread more, then act. We’re not talking about self isolating or closing businesses, just basic stuff like stopping thousands of people gathering.

 

[Infra-red]

Geez, the British government doesn't have a version of science to which only they are privy.

Their strategy doesn't appear to be based on medical science, but rather behavioural science and the advice of The Nudge Unit.

 

[Smores]

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This got a bit lost in the talk of the UK's general strategy but any idea where they got their 7 days recommendation from? Most other places seem to be saying 14.

The median incubation period appears to be 5-7 days so by the time you show symptoms another 7 days should take you to 14 days. If you've been tested then i think that's a different matter and its 14 days.

 

[stepic]

This is what I am not understanding. Merkel said 70-80% of Germans may get it - that is 58 Million People or thereabouts. Johnson says lots more People in the UK will get it and die.

But China with a Population of 1.4bn seems to have topped out at around 80,000 cases (0.005% of their Population), the WHO confirms they are in decline and praised the Actions that they took.

How is it then that the rest of us are so fecked? Leaves me to believe that the Governments are only concerned with protecting their economy and not their people.

i've been wondering this too. is it because China is a much larger country and it's able to quarantine the virus a lot more effectively? whereas in Europe it's almost impossible to do so?

can anyone else answer this?

 

[Wolverine]

No testing accompanying the bold part?

Nope, new guidelines as of a yesterday part of the "delay" phase
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/
Stay at home if you have coronavirus symptoms
Stay at home for 7 days if you have either:

• a high temperature
• a new, continuous cough

Do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital.
You do not need to contact 111 to tell them you're staying at home.

Call 111 if

• you feel you cannot cope with your symptoms at home
• your condition gets worse
• your symptoms do not get better after 7 days

 

[Sarni]

There's so much noise around all this, it's hard to get reliable information without turning into a full time researcher.

Can anyone answer some of these questions:

Is there any chance(with harsh measures) that the virus could be wiped out worldwide?
How much difference does warmer weather make to the transmission of the virus?
How likely is mutation of the virus? Is mutation random or is there any level of predictability?
What percentage of people who contract the virus and survive, become immune? Does this depend on mutations?

According to my understanding:

1. No
2. Very little
3. Likely/certain
4. We don't know

 

[Hugh Jass]

i've been wondering this too. is it because China is a much larger country and it's able to quarantine the virus a lot more effectively? whereas in Europe it's almost impossible to do so?

can anyone else answer this?

I read that because China is a one party state, they could do what they liked. Whereas in liberal democratic countries, like those in Europe, this is not possible.

 

[JPRouve]

No testing accompanying the bold part?

Based on what was just said by Montpellier's CHU, at this point the answer is no. During the previous phase people with symptoms would be tested but now if you have symptoms, you are isolated at home.

 

[11101]

There's so much noise around all this, it's hard to get reliable information without turning into a full time researcher.

Can anyone answer some of these questions:

Is there any chance(with harsh measures) that the virus could be wiped out worldwide? Yes, but its looking more and more unlikely as cases grow worldwide. Personally i think it will die out on its own but i have no idea if that will be in a few months or a few years.
How much difference does warmer weather make to the transmission of the virus? Nobody knows. Only assumptions made from research on similar coronaviruses suggest temperature might affect how long the virus can survive outside a host. What is known is that warm weather pushes people outdoors where transmission is less likely to take place.
How likely is mutation of the virus? Is mutation random or is there any level of predictability? Viruses continually mutate to some degree. Generally large mutations die out quickly but that's not always the case, and generally mutations that do survive tend to be less deadly, but again that's not always the case. The Spanish flu mutated into a far more deadly strain.
What percentage of people who contract the virus and survive, become immune? Does this depend on mutations?
Nobody knows yet. Stories of people becoming reinfected are unreliable, and it has been confirmed that recovered patients do have antibodies to the virus.

In short, it's currently impossible to answer any of these with conviction. Anybody who tells you otherwise is lying.

 

[Needham]

The aim is not to eradicate transmission. That is not possible. The aim is to bring the reproductive number under 1. Presumably the government scientists think that can be done by bringing these measures in.

Only in Korea, China and Italy where the cases are already beyond the capacity of the health services do they need to act more aggressively, and the people are willing to accept it. In the early days of restrictions people in Italy mostly ignored them because they weren't scared of the virus. It doesn't sound like people in the UK are either.

Cases in Korea are not beyond the capacity of the health services.

 

[Sarni]

Realistically it's not going to go away for a good 2-3 months, right? I mean they've closed schools for 2 weeks here but we are probably going to see increase in cases during this time so they'll have to extend that. I'm supposed to travel to US on May 1, if they lift travel ban I'm still going ahead with that but I doubt it's going to happen.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

So... you know all the countries that have closed their schools? China, S.Korea etc - how have they managed this conundrum of childcare for Doctors / Nurses that this Tory Government and their obedient followers are telling us is a seemingly impossible conundrum to solve?

How have China got things under control and improved Healthcare while schools are closed?

How is this possible if the great minds within the current U.K Government can't solve it?

Could we approach these other countries and ask them for the elusive secret of childcare for Doctors / Nurses if that's the main reason why schools are being kept open?

 

[Sarni]

So... you know all the countries that have closed their schools? China, S.Korea etc - how have they managed this conundrum of childcare for Doctors / Nurses that this Tory Government and their obedient followers are telling us is a seemingly impossible conundrum to solve?

How have China got things under control and improved Healthcare while schools are closed?

How is this possible if the great minds within the current U.K Government can't solve it?

Could we approach these other countries and ask them for the elusive secret of childcare for Doctors / Nurses if that's the main reason why schools are being kept open?

We've closed schools and there are very little issues because of it. Usually one parent can stay home. In some cases parents just drop kids at someone else's home where one of the parents can stay and work from home.

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

Probably posted before but anyways, a good read on why social isolation is the most effective action right now: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-cases-quarantine-cancellation

 

[JPRouve]

So... you know all the countries that have closed their schools? China, S.Korea etc - how have they managed this conundrum of childcare for Doctors / Nurses that this Tory Government and their obedient followers are telling us is a seemingly impossible conundrum to solve?

How have China got things under control and improved Healthcare while schools are closed?

How is this possible if the great minds within the current U.K Government can't solve it?

Could we approach these other countries and ask them for the elusive secret of childcare for Doctors / Nurses if that's the main reason why schools are being kept open?

In these countries the answer is generally obvious, family. Grandparents are the main childcare support.

 

[stepic]

So... you know all the countries that have closed their schools? China, S.Korea etc - how have they managed this conundrum of childcare for Doctors / Nurses that this Tory Government and their obedient followers are telling us is a seemingly impossible conundrum to solve?

How have China got things under control and improved Healthcare while schools are closed?

How is this possible if the great minds within the current U.K Government can't solve it?

Could we approach these other countries and ask them for the elusive secret of childcare for Doctors / Nurses if that's the main reason why schools are being kept open?

you do realise China has 1b people right? the number of people who have contracted it is under 1%. you can't just compare one country to another. use your head.

 

[hungrywing]

There's so much noise around all this, it's hard to get reliable information without turning into a full time researcher.

Can anyone answer some of these questions:

Is there any chance(with harsh measures) that the virus could be wiped out worldwide?

Wiped out of existence completely (in all vectors including animals), pretty much zero chance. It'd be possible in a sci-fi novel where you had nanobots released to find every organism with covid19 in it and tag them and then drones go out and kill and incinerate every marked creature.

Wiped out as a 'recurring' threat to humans, possible in 12-18 months. But no one knows. We just got all of Ebola in humans (FOR NOW), for example. This is also why it's important to find the animal host, which you may have heard. AKA if we can't get a vaccine, then all it takes is one mofo to eat/screw/rub lips over contaminated ______ again and it starts all over.

How much difference does warmer weather make to the transmission of the virus?

Unknown.

EDIT: Maybe known a little bit.

(On a related note, we have theories as to why we catch more colds/flu upper respiratory infections during the cold months.)

How likely is mutation of the virus? Is mutation random or is there any level of predictability?

Mutation itself is happening all the time. Yes, largely random. No predictability of the type you're probably getting at (Gadzooks, Johnson! look where it's headed! another few mutations and it will be able to move through fiber optic cable!)

Viruses, like any organism, have energy expenditures and the resultant restrictions. AKA there might have already been individual units capable of airborne transmission/survive for weeks in air, but that particular mutation also meant they had to give up a protein that helped them survive above a certain temperature. Like Wile-E-Coyote getting a huge sledgehammer to klobber the roadrunner but that hammer gets stuck on a passing white blood cell. Or like a limited amount of total attribute points to spend setting up your character stats in a computer game.

What percentage of people who contract the virus and survive, become immune? Does this depend on mutations?

Unknown. Technically yes it does depend on mutations but everything does.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

In these countries the answer is generally obvious, family. Grandparents are the main childcare support.

Ah crap. In the UK, we don't have either of those things.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

you do realise China has 1b people right? the number of people who have contracted it is under 1%. you can't just compare one country to another. use your head.

Use yours and answer the fecking question if you're gonna bother wading in.

Respected Health officials the Globe over are criticizing the Tory Governments heel dragging, particularly over schools.

Repeating the same blurb that you've heard some fat conman peddling on TV isn't answering the question - it's paying lip-service, so save the bother if that's all you're willing to do.

 

[Sara125]

@Nou_Camp99 Btw, are you willing to eat your slice of humble pie seeing as you were arguing with everyone and adamant that the virus is not that big of a deal?

 

[JPRouve]

Ah crap. In the UK, we don't have either of those things.

You jest but it's not necessarily the case for people in Europe, there is sometimes a different culture when it comes to live close to family members. If you take West Africa or Asia as an example, it's not surprising to see 10 or 20 people from the same family living in the same neighborhood which makes some logistic easier.

 

[Simbo]

There are comments which allude to how prepared South Korea were for such an outbreak.

fecking ridiculous that the message me spouted months back was that the UK was well prepared to deal with this. Bullshit.

There's a study which shows the US as #1 in capable to deal with a global outbreak, UK is #2 or #3. It seems the researchers failed to factor in how much our governments give a shit

 

[Raees]

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[Kentonio]

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[Redlambs]

So my son was ill yesterday, fever shivers and dry cough. Phoned the NHS line and they were clueless, just said ask the school. So phoned the school and they said keep him and his brother off for 2 days.

Now I was worried about their attendance marks, so phoned again today and they said keep them off for 7 days but they'll phone me back. I've just had a phonecall say actually don't because there's no guarantee that they'll beable to justify it as authorised absence and the no one is advising them.

Basically they are clueless, the NHS line are clueless and everyone is being left to their own devices. Meanwhile my son is absolutely fine now, but I have a tickly throat

 

[Nou_Camp99]

@Nou_Camp99 Btw, are you willing to eat your slice of humble pie seeing as you were arguing with everyone and adamant that the virus is not that big of a deal?

Impossible to know right now. So far we have just 10 deaths.

Germany's death rate for now is as low as 0.15%.

Lets see what happens. It is more scary than I thought it was few weeks ago but I'm not panicking just yet.

 

[Redlambs]

Business as usual today in hospitals. Slightly unbelievable. We know this thing is in the community. They are risking passing this on to nurses, junior doctors, registrars and consultants. All of whom will be now expected to isolate for 7 days at the mere sign now of high fever or recurrent cough which honestly will mean last minutes sick calls that rota coordinators will not be able to get replacements/locums in for and massive harm to patients now let alone when this thing is at its peak.

If you don't want to do social isolation in certain respects then fine, but surely flattening the curve can be achieved in numerous more ways than has been currently proposed. Saddest part of this all is it won't be made political when its entirely political that chronic underinvestment in our critical care and other aspects of NHS will lead to deaths.

My sister is a head nurse and us having to send people home from work left, right and centre despite having to deal with increasing patient loads.

I think people really don't get the impact this will ultimately have.

 

[Tincanalley]

Helping people get a grip of themselves

 

[swooshboy]

So my son was ill yesterday, fever shivers and dry cough. Phoned the NHS line and they were clueless, just said ask the school. So phoned the school and they said keep him and his brother off for 2 days.

Now I was worried about their attendance marks, so phoned again today and they said keep them off for 7 days but they'll phone me back. I've just had a phonecall say actually don't because there's no guarantee that they'll beable to justify it as authorised absence and the no one is advising them.

Basically they are clueless, the NHS line are clueless and everyone is being left to their own devices. Meanwhile my son is absolutely fine now, but I have a tickly throat

Have you tried phoning the school for your tickly throat?

 

[Redlambs]

Have you tried phoning the school for your tickly throat?

They told me to man up

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Impossible to know right now. So far we have just 10 deaths.

Germany's death rate for now is as low as 0.15%.

Lets see what happens. It is more scary than I thought it was few weeks ago but I'm not panicking just yet.

Noucamp is just bummed that FF is off! *

* only joking pal, I know you do care about this