SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

BusbyMalone

First Man Falling
Joined
May 22, 2017
Messages
10,362
Its the same virus there as it is here, similar medical facilities. I'm unaware of any reason we can't expect to be in the same situation in the near future. They got it first, not worse.
Well as others have said, you have to take into account the cultural norms and the fact that Italy is a very old city in terms of its population. Lots of old people who are clearly the most vulnerable.
 

C'est Moi Cantona

Full Member
Joined
Feb 15, 2014
Messages
8,787
You can say the same about flu, colds etc. But relative to them, the mortality rate is orders of magnitude higher as is the number of people who need medical attention.
I'm not doubting that, I've just seen figures of 7 % mortality rate in Italy, but that is only based on confirmed cases, so we can surely times the infected numbers by 8-10 at least, and bringing this down considerably.

I'm not doubting the 'magnitude' is higher, I'm just trying to make sense of it all, as I am with the UK line of 'probably 5,000 - 10,000 infected, yet so far 11 deaths. putting it far lower than the 1 % we keep hearing so far.
 

Classical Mechanic

Full Member
Joined
Aug 25, 2014
Messages
35,216
Location
xG Zombie Nation
Well as others have said, you have to take into account the cultural norms and the fact that Italy is a very old city in terms of its population. Lots of old people who are clearly the most vulnerable.
Its also blown up in one region massively and is hammering medical resources there. It’s much more geographically diffuse in the UK currently.
 

T00lsh3d

T00ly O' Sh3d
Joined
Mar 20, 2014
Messages
8,470
Nope, I had a mild flu but they can't take any chances with medical students because we're not insured so they put me in quarantine. I wrote to my infectious diseases professor (he's the doctor in charge of all the cases being brought to Pavia) to ask him to let me back in to help them out, just waiting to hear back from him. Technically, I should be allowed back in now since I officially graduated as a doctor yesterday.
Congratulations. What crazy circumstances to do it in
 

Tucholsky

Full Member
Joined
Jun 1, 2012
Messages
181
Location
Somewhere in Germany
Supports
VfB Stuttgart
The Trump press conferences are so "amazing".
The experts and scientists that in every 3rd sentence praise the great president and try to express the important messages during the other time.
But at least Trump is sticking this time to the script he was handed. Far less adlibbing than usual.
 

redshaw

Full Member
Joined
Jul 17, 2015
Messages
9,701
Borders should've been closed about 2 weeks ago. Ridiculous that they've been left open so long. feckers have still been going on holiday for the last few weeks, shows how lacklustre the response has been.
EU and Germany have advised against this but it seems they want to keep the economy going and expect the majority will get this anyway. EU, Germany and UK seem to have the same stance although UK is in the spotlight.

China cases have really slowed down if you believe the figures and Wuhan is 11 million population. China ~80k cases and ~3000 deaths, is it on pause or fading away?
 

Tucholsky

Full Member
Joined
Jun 1, 2012
Messages
181
Location
Somewhere in Germany
Supports
VfB Stuttgart
Nope, I had a mild flu but they can't take any chances with medical students because we're not insured so they put me in quarantine. I wrote to my infectious diseases professor (he's the doctor in charge of all the cases being brought to Pavia) to ask him to let me back in to help them out, just waiting to hear back from him. Technically, I should be allowed back in now since I officially graduated as a doctor yesterday.
Congratulations to you. Hope you are able to do your job as fast as possible.
We need you and your coworkers. So best to you and your colleagues.
 

Fener1907

Full Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2014
Messages
3,102
Location
Istanchester
If I'm not mistaken on average it takes around 11 days between infection and the first symptoms and if I'm not mistaken I have read that there is the suspiscion that you don't need to be symptomatic to be contagious. So it's quite sneaky and there isn't really a way to spot it before it's too late.
I've read the same. It looks as if it hit sooner than anticipated and swept through unsuspecting populations, resulting in alarming numbers of positives that only came to light because of increasingly effective testing procedures, not because it suddenly took hold to coincide with the beginning of testing, which I think might be the assumption for many. Even South Korea - widely praised for its effective response against the virus - only had its test for the virus ready in early February.
 

Pink Moon

Full Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2009
Messages
8,283
Location
Glasgow
Supports
Celtic
Wow. Had the flu once I think but it must have affected you way worse than me. i'd say Norovirus was the worst illness I can remember. The duration was much shorter than flu but i was actually vomiting water for a few days. If i drank any liquid at all it would immediately be thrown right back up. Had to rinse my mouth and spit it out to try and help the dehydration whilst not being sick. My understanding of Covid-19 is that the symptoms are high temperature, muscle aches, fatigue and sore throat (though not a runny nose). I guess the severity will vary from person to person.
Yeah I feel you there, I had that at the start of 2019 and it was horrible. Way worse than the flu ever was. Those few days were (again) spent sleeping on the toilet floor and waking up every 10 minutes to puke water :lol:
 

Fiskey

Can't stop thinking about David Nugent's hot naked
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
4,667
Location
Oxford
Yeah I feel you there, I had that at the start of 2019 and it was horrible. Way worse than the flu ever was. Those few days were (again) spent sleeping on the toilet floor and waking up every 10 minutes to puke water :lol:
Must be horrible. I had swine flu when that came around and felt like I wanted to die, but that sounds much worse!
 

Skills

Snitch
Joined
Jan 17, 2012
Messages
42,100
EU and Germany have advised against this but it seems they want to keep the economy going and expect the majority will get this anyway. EU, Germany and UK seem to have the same stance although UK is in the spotlight.

China cases have really slowed down if you believe the figures and Wuhan is 11 million population. China ~80k cases and ~3000 deaths, is it on pause or fading away?
The situation in Wuhan is different though. They're the original source of the virus, so it's statistically unlikely than any new cases there will be from an outside source (up until now). They closed their own borders to stop transmission within China which has been really effective.

We were in a favourable situation until a week or 2 ago. Where if we kept the only sources of new transmissions to be those already inside the country, we could've identified and significantly slowed down this increase. But we've kept everything open and repeatedly let people in from places with a much higher rate of infection.
 

shamans

Thinks you can get an STD from flirting.
Joined
Oct 25, 2010
Messages
18,226
Location
Constantly at the STD clinic.
The mortality rate would actually be lower since I believe a lot of people aren't even reporting it.

I am feeling a fever (very mild) have cough with phlegm and slight headache but the doctors don't have enough kits to test me. Been locked up in my room basically. I'm sure there are many cases like myself who are just fighting it on their own.
 

Fiskey

Can't stop thinking about David Nugent's hot naked
Joined
Oct 12, 2009
Messages
4,667
Location
Oxford
The situation in Wuhan is different though. They're the original source of the virus, so it's statistically unlikely than any new cases there will be from an outside source (up until now). They closed their own borders to stop transmission within China which has been really effective.

We were in a favourable situation until a week or 2 ago. Where if we kept the only sources of new transmissions to be those already inside the country, we could've identified and significantly slowed down this increase. But we've kept everything open and repeatedly let people in from places with a much higher rate of infection.
But it's actually a good time to seed the infection now. It seems like the government are trying to ensure the peak hits in summer.
 

Starkie_1

Affluent and Likeminded
Joined
Jan 23, 2007
Messages
2,898
Location
Failing a Jib anywhere, anyhow
The situation in Wuhan is different though. They're the original source of the virus, so it's statistically unlikely than any new cases there will be from an outside source (up until now). They closed their own borders to stop transmission within China which has been really effective.

We were in a favourable situation until a week or 2 ago. Where if we kept the only sources of new transmissions to be those already inside the country, we could've identified and significantly slowed down this increase. But we've kept everything open and repeatedly let people in from places with a much higher rate of infection.
What evidence do you have that closing borders and stopping travel stops or helps anything? Maybe 100 years ago but the entire world is so connected that it’s already everywhere. Maybe it’s mutated since Wuhan but if so it’s mutated here as well. Closing the borders does nothing but increase panic and feck up the businesses involved in travel and tourism even more. Not one country who’s closed their borders or stopped travel has any evidence it’ll work, following suit and guess work.
 

van der star

newprawn warrior
Scout
Joined
Dec 2, 2012
Messages
8,938
Location
San Siro
Congratulations to you. Hope you are able to do your job as fast as possible.
We need you and your coworkers. So best to you and your colleagues.
Cheers, there's a few dozen of us recent graduates who were volunteering until recently but we couldn't do much except paperwork and triage as students, but now we'll hopefully be able to help even more, and our city and hospital desperately needs all the help we can get.
Congratulations. What crazy circumstances to do it in
Probably the most unique graduation ceremony in close to 800 years of this university's existence. At least it'll be a good talking point some day when I'm applying for jobs elsewhere.
 

Finn MacCool

New Member
Joined
Mar 27, 2016
Messages
1,535
Supports
Liverpool
I just saw an interview with a guy from the WHO who said that relying on herd immunity, which is essentially natures vaccine, to protect the UK is only feasible IF Covid-19 doesn't mutate in the same way seasonal flu does. Otherwise you would need to gain new herd immunity every year in the same way as a new flu jab is administered each year.
 

TMDaines

Fun sponge.
Joined
Sep 1, 2014
Messages
14,003
I just saw an interview with a guy from the WHO who said that relying on herd immunity, which is essentially natures vaccine, to protect the UK is only feasible IF Covid-19 doesn't mutate in the same way seasonal flu does. Otherwise you would need to gain new herd immunity every year in the same way as a new flu jab is administered each year.
I presume we are all hoping for a vaccine by then, otherwise we are all fecked around the world anyway.
 

Revan

Assumptionman
Joined
Dec 19, 2011
Messages
49,635
Location
London
Missed Trump's declaration of emergency. What does exactly state of emergency means, what are they banning now?
 

ArmandTamzarian

Full Member
Joined
Aug 11, 2009
Messages
3,830
Location
Belfast
Supports
Liverpool
For someone who's supposed to be heading the Coronavirus task force Mike Pence doesn't seem to be able to do feck all unless it's "at the president's direction"
 

The Firestarter

Full Member
Joined
Apr 8, 2010
Messages
28,228
Missed Trump's declaration of emergency. What does exactly state of emergency means, what are they banning now?
Probably means federilizing the national guard , which will drive the the resemblance to your average US disaster movie a bit closer.