SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[TMDaines]

Old people have stopped contributing to the economy through taxes and probably cost the state more than they now contribute. However, older people typically tend to vote Conservative. Its a really risky strategy, if it goes wrong the Tories will need to make people forget they let the old die.

Unless you think all triage doctors and nurses are paid up Conservatives, it won’t be them making the decision. The health system will inevitably be overwhelmed at some point. The strategy is to minimise the number of people who suffer from that. Triage at this time will focus on efficiency and not sentimentality. Those to be treated will be prioritised based on effort required, chance of survival, age, number of dependents, value to society etc. That will contribute to the mortality rate in the elderly.

It’s already happened in Italy already. Below is an essential read.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/03...us-cautionary-tale-italy-dont-do-what-we-did/

That’s going to be utterly soul destorying.

 

[BusbyMalone]

What’s the prognosis for America in all of this? I’ve obviously been reading a few articles and listening to what some experts predict to happen, but i’ve been mainly concentrating on the UK side of things. I read an article in the NYT and they gave a pretty grim outcome, but it was worse case scenario. They said up to 160/ 214 million people could be infected over a period of months, resulting in 200,000 to 1.7 million deaths. I’m not sure how true this is, though. They do say it is the worst case scenario, but is this close to being true?

These numbers seem huge, but perhaps they’re not and this is genuinely something that could happen. When you factor in their seemingly bungled response to it and take into consideration their health care system, them maybe this is true.

 

[jojojo]

I hear this line constantly and now I am genuinely curious, do all people in UK who have children stop working when schools close for holidays? Why is it that UK is the only country in the universe that can't cope with school closure for a few weeks? I don't want to hear anything about corona etc., I am just curious why is this issue is quite specific to UK only.

They go on holiday with mum/dad. They stay with grandparents. They go to daycare. The older ones hang round shopping centres with their mates. Those things don't really help in terms of isolating them from infection or from being the ones who spread it to more vulnerable people.

There will come a point where schools close, because teachers will get the virus, or will themselves decide to self-isolate. It will also happen because at some point too many kids may be absent either because of symptoms, or because their parents choose, in effect stopping the educational function of the school and no longer offering any advantage. Emotion and public opinion will play a role of course, science is one thing, but people may want it to happen sooner than the mathematical models say.

 

[Fooza]

The goal is to treat people that absolutely need it, not get accurate data/numbers. In most countries If you start wide testing, you spread the means when the vast majority of people don't need any medical attention.

I would have thought to help with the treatment you need to know the actual number of cases, if it's rising more, more action will be needed to prepare on what to do, like the need of more equipment and staff. Don't they go hand in hand?

 

[Paxi]

A simple powerful message for those who haven’t seen it

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Only kills the old and compromised sure...

 

[TMDaines]

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It definitely won’t be crude mortality rates. That isn’t any basis for comparison with different segments of populations are affected in different countries. You will need to standardise the mortality rate, which requires a lot more data.

Edit: affected/effected.

 

[jojojo]

This question needs to be answered and explained, it makes no sense to stop testing the public and only test those who are in hospital, how will they get accurate data/numbers.

They're relying on statistical analysis - random testing according to a population profile in other words.

 

[The Firestarter]

Which is futile.

Most nations are trying to contain and delay.

What's your opinion on Singapore / Hong Kong then ?

 

[Dante]

I'd rather doctors and nurses concentrated on helping the people who are ill enough to be hospitalised, rather than spending time testing everyone who starts to present symptoms.

Incomplete data is less important than providing medical care.

 

[Drifter]

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Oh please be true.

 

[Smores]

No, the UK is following a model with much higher figures than the current recorded numbers.

So... not at all actually.

Can you provide a link to the model?

 

[Dante]

What's your opinion on Singapore / Hong Kong then ?

Their policies are not sustainable. And the UK would never be able to implement them anyway.

 

[sullydnl]

It definitely won’t be crude mortality rates. That isn’t any basis for comparison with different segments of populations are effected in different countries. You will need to standardise the mortality rate, which requires a lot more data.

Yep, tbf he retweeted someone just after that making the same point.

 

[senorgregster]

Ive tried to read every post but I may (probably) have missed it. In the UK approach, if an individual becomes symptomati in a high risk environment, say in an old people's home or immunocompromised hospital wing, what is the proposed course of action? @Dante I think you seem to have the most knowledge of the UK approach.

 

[Nogbadthebad]

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Which is why I think the idea of deliberately throwing 80% of available data away is outright idiocy.

The more data the better. That is not my opinion, that is the WHO. We are not even tracking where the disease is, because we are actively telling people who have it not to inform anyone.

If you are a paid statistician and defend that then all I can say is wow.

@TMDaines



Don't bother responding to him, mate.

You can’t hope to win with some. It’s more others that are on the fence or are willing to have a sensible discussion with a different perspective, that you hope to engage with. He just went way too far.

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Well woop de doo you pair of condescending twats.

As I said, ignoring 90% of cases is not a good way to proceed, the WHO stress how important testing is.

 

[Offside]

Yeah killing 2 million people so the economy will be better .

That's really sensible

Jesus wept.

 

[TMDaines]

Can you provide a link to the model?

On Thursday, Whitty and Vallance in their presentations said they believe the number of cases was already 5000-10000, when I think we still only had 300-odd positive tests.

That still puts us on the flat bit at the bottom of the curve before it even begins to ramp up, by the way. That was the most important info from Thursday.

 

[The Firestarter]

Their policies are not sustainable. And the UK would never be able to implement them anyway.

How are they not sustainable? If the borders stay closed , or every traveller gets quarantined, it absolutely is. Not to mention, the testing will become more automatic and robust . They have contained the clusters within their borders.

 

[TMDaines]

Yep, tbf he retweeted someone just after that making the same point.

Hah. I had an all-day masterclass on this from Public Health England only this Wednesday!

 

[JPRouve]

I would have thought to help with the treatment you need to know the actual number of cases, if it's rising more, more action will be needed to prepare on what to do, like need more equipment and staff. Don't they go hand in hand?

No, for the treatment you need to study the actual virus, they don't need the exact number of cases, the same way they don't need the number of people with the flu. And they are not going to get more staff, we are not going to find new doctors and nurses in the next weeks. If there is a an efficient and easy way to test everyone, they will, the korean drive thrus are a good idea but if you look at other testing points, people are in line next to each others and you may question the safety of the process when the majority of people won't have issues with the virus.

Now, I do think that the US could implement it, with the amount of people with access to a car, they could do large drive thru testings, in France I don't think that it's possible, in the UK I don't know.

 

[TrustInJanuzaj]

So my girlfriend is a nurse in Manchester and was working with a patient last week who subsequently ended up testing positive. in this period (before she found out her patient had tested positive) she travelled to my flat in London. Obviously this was a large cause of concern for us both. Anyway roll on a few days and she is told by her hospital (against the advice of 111 to come back into work this weekend, so of course she did. So it's been nearly a week since she first had contact with this positive patient and she doesn't seem to have picked up any symptoms. I on the other hand now have a cough and a really sore throat (nothing else symptom wise).

Do people think this could be a weird coincidence and I've just picked up a cold or could I have Corona Virus in a mild form? I worked at home Thursday - Friday last week but I'm feeling pressure to turn into work tomorrow. It's so frustrating not being able to get tested etc to find out if you have it. Can't even get my hands on a temperature gauge as they have already been cleared out of stores.

 

[Dante]

Ive tried to read every post but I may (probably) have missed it. In the UK approach, if an individual becomes symptomati in a high risk environment, say in an old people's home or immunocompromised hospital wing, what is the proposed course of action? @Dante I think you seem to have the most knowledge of the UK approach.

I don't know, mate.

That'll be decided by the NHS policy on such things. I don't think they've been published it n the same way that they have done their public guidance.

Isolation for over 70s has been proposed this morning, so I'd imagine something along those line.

 

[Sparky Rhiwabon]

I'm not sure that a lot of the hysterical posts on here, probably by people who are not experts in this, are helping.

 

[Sweet Square]

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[BluesJr]

So my girlfriend is a nurse in Manchester and was working with a patient last week who subsequently ended up testing positive. in this period (before she found out her patient had tested positive) she travelled to my flat in London. Obviously this was a large cause of concern for us both. Anyway roll on a few days and she is told by her hospital (against the advice of 111 to come back into work this weekend, so of course she did. So it's been nearly a week since she first had contact with this positive patient and she doesn't seem to have picked up any symptoms. I on the other hand now have a cough and a really sore throat (nothing else symptom wise).

Do people think this could be a weird coincidence and I've just picked up a cold or could I have Corona Virus in a mild form? I worked at home Thursday - Friday last week but I'm feeling pressure to turn into work tomorrow. It's so frustrating not being able to get tested etc to find out if you have it. Can't even get my hands on a temperature gauge as they have already been cleared out of stores.

Here is the problem you’re right. I’d assume you have it tbh it’s safer that way.

 

[Ubik]

So my girlfriend is a nurse in Manchester and was working with a patient last week who subsequently ended up testing positive. in this period (before she found out her patient had tested positive) she travelled to my flat in London. Obviously this was a large cause of concern for us both. Anyway roll on a few days and she is told by her hospital (against the advice of 111 to come back into work this weekend, so of course she did. So it's been nearly a week since she first had contact with this positive patient and she doesn't seem to have picked up any symptoms. I on the other hand now have a cough and a really sore throat (nothing else symptom wise).

Do people think this could be a weird coincidence and I've just picked up a cold or could I have Corona Virus in a mild form? I worked at home Thursday - Friday last week but I'm feeling pressure to turn into work tomorrow. It's so frustrating not being able to get tested etc to find out if you have it. Can't even get my hands on a temperature gauge as they have already been cleared out of stores.

If it's lasted more than half a day, the current advice is to self-isolate for 7 days.

I'm not sure that a lot of the hysterical posts on here, probably by people who are not experts in this, are helping.

Agree.

 

[Utdstar01]

Jesus. 2000 new cases and 100 more deaths in 24 hours for Spain.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Austria has banned any gatherings with more than five people.

 

[Dante]

How are they not sustainable? If the borders stay closed , or every traveller gets quarantined, it absolutely is. Not to mention, the testing will become more automatic and robust . They have contained the clusters within their borders.

When do they open their borders? Or do they keep their disease monitoring up forever?

 

[SqueakyWeasel]

I would have thought to help with the treatment you need to know the actual number of cases, if it's rising more, more action will be needed to prepare on what to do, like the need of more equipment and staff. Don't they go hand in hand?

The “numbers” are only the numbers that have been tested and found positive. There could be one more or millions more cases in the untested portion of any given countries population. You can’t even rationally scale up tested figures as only high probability cases are subject to testing. Scientists deal in facts. The best thing for them to do is work on affected cases.

 

[Paxi]

I've told her that you might not care about dying but if you get sick and I have to take you to hospital then you might take a bed from somebody who does care about dying.

oh and I'm 50 ya cnut!

I've told my mum same thing; If you don't care about dying think of other people.

Well you're old enough to be my dad... that's nice to know.

 

[The Firestarter]

When do they open their borders? Or do they keep their disease monitoring up forever?

Well obviously the will.keep the monitoring until the disease has reduced sufficiently globally. Of course it may be months even a year. It is absolutely the right thing to do, first responsibility of a country is to ensure safety of its people.

 

[JPRouve]

The “numbers” are only the numbers that have been tested and found positive. There could be one more or millions more cases in the untested portion of any given countries population. You can’t even rationally scale up tested figures as only high probability cases are subject to testing. Scientists deal in facts. The best thing for them to do is work on affected cases.

Exactly, South Korea has a population of 51m people and tested around 200k. They are a long way from testing everyone, it will take months during which people that have been tested could get it from someone that hasn't yet.

 

[Drifter]

Coronavirus: Supermarkets ask shoppers to be 'considerate' and stop stockpiling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51883440

What were they expecting from a me,me,me ,i'm alright jack society. This virus bought out the worse in people.

 

[Cpt Negative]

Austria has banned any gatherings with more than five people.

could still get games on at the Etihad with those rules

 

[kps88]

I'm not sure that a lot of the hysterical posts on here, probably by people who are not experts in this, are helping.

I don't think it's good for your mental health in general to get too invested in this. Constantly obsessing over the numbers, reading articles and getting worked up about things out of your control will not be a sustainable approach considering this is going to last for months.

And stress/anxiety doesn't help your immune system either.

 

[Paxi]

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@Rado_N South Korea: Mass testing and quarantine have slowed the spread.


But yeah, it's futile, don't look data, just take Dante's word for it.

 

[horsechoker]

Coronavirus: Supermarkets ask shoppers to be 'considerate' and stop stockpiling

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51883440

What were they expecting from a me,me,me ,i'm alright jack society. This virus bought out the worse in people.

No good asking, they need to enforce it.

 

[Rado_N]

@Rado_N South Korea: Mass testing and quarantine have slowed the spread.


But yeah, it's futile, don't look data, just take Dante's word for it.

Who’d have thunk it.

 

[RonaldoVII]

Going to Morocco Wednesday, I don’t know whether to go or not.

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