What I'm saying is that the idea is dangerous. We could end up in Italy's situation before we know it and that 35 deaths could be 1000+ and growing exponentially.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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Dante
Average bang
Transmitting the disease to PangolinmanI was about to say. Where the feck is Batman when you need him.
fergieisold
New Member
Pub packed annoyingly! Hope nobody has it . There’s a lot of media hype though. Can’t find anyone who knows anyone with it.
VorZakone
What would Kenny G do?
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I never knew of their existence before I read about them being a potential host for Covid 19.Transmitting the disease to Pangolinman
432JuanMata
Full Member
That’s what I’m thinking. Korea and China have done well sure China wasn’t even in the top 20 for new cases today and Korea are maintaining/decliningRegarding testing, if it’s the method that is most effective why are so few countries doing it in anywhere near the South Korean level, is it simply a lack of resources?
I went into Cardiff yesterday for a meal and it was incredible how busy it was.Pub packed annoyingly! Hope nobody has it . There’s a lot of media hype though. Can’t find anyone who knows anyone with it.
Unfortunately, as Brits it's in our nature in the event of a crisis to just head to the pub.
Massive Spanner
Give Mason Mount a chance!
Go home you dope.Pub packed annoyingly! Hope nobody has it . There’s a lot of media hype though. Can’t find anyone who knows anyone with it.
MikeKing
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That's what they want you to believe. The penguin is behind this shit.Transmitting the disease to Pangolinman
Henrik Larsson
Still logged in at RAWK (help!)
When they're closing hash bars and sex clubs until at least April 6th like they're doing over here, you know shite is about to get serious...
lsd
The Oracle
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It’ll always be Abed, followed by Lego.
Abed for sure . I mean he is Batman for real
Then Ben Wyatt
not yetPub packed annoyingly! Hope nobody has it . There’s a lot of media hype though. Can’t find anyone who knows anyone with it.
give it a month
4bars
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+368 new deaths in Italy
Camilo
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In a month we'll be bored with this news. It'll be royal babies soon enough. If you didn't read the news you'd never even know.not yet
give it a month
Yeah, and then, assuming we ignore social distancing precautions, we give it to an old person, or an immunosuppressed person, and then they fecking die.But even you and me for example could have that virus with no symptoms
Wtf, in the last day??+368 new deaths in Italy
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In a month, you’re going to have thousands of daily fatalities. And you’ll realize you are an idiot for not being able to do basic math.In a month we'll be bored with this news. It'll be royal babies soon enough. If you didn't read the news you'd never even know.
Classical Mechanic
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They have 1500 in critical care at the moment.Wtf, in the last day??
Conor
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While I am not privy to the inner workings of the UK's plan, it seems to me that there are so many holes in the arguments of people defending it in this thread:
We are saving the lockdown for when we need it most
Currently, without drastic measures, the virus is spreading exponentially. Each day that you leave people interacting with each other, you are adding thousands of cases down the line in a couple of weeks, with potentially thousands of those needing hospital care. Surely it makes sense to limit the number of cases as early as physically possible, to allow for proper treatment of those in bad shape, while also having some form of capacity to treat the growing(much slower) number of new cases, which are an inevitability? Also, if the over 70s, who you claim would end up looking after the kids in a lockdown, are locked down themselves, who will be looking after the kids?
What is the point of going into lockdown when the virus has already spread far wider than the health service can handle? How will the country cope with that level of sickness, even from a mild cases perspective, where people will have to stop working and quarantine no matter the sector?
If we close everything down, who is going to look after children etc.
Some of the stats being thrown around regarding the amount of health care workers etc. that would literally have to stop working to look after their children seem wildly exaggerated. Other countries are having to deal with this scenario now, are they failing? It's a one in a life time situation, solutions will be found to these sorts of non-essential questions. The amount of companies allowing people to work from home, closing down for a number of weeks in the case of full blown lockdown will mitigate this issue considerably.
Once these other countries stop the strict isolation measures, it's back to square one
This is just such a ridiculous argument, do you think all of these countries are just going to announce that people should resume licking each other's faces 9AM Monday morning after the lockdown? Clearly, governments and businesses will be equipped with more knowledge, and better plans to cope with community spread after this period of lockdown, more will be known about the virus, and in general, people will be better equipped to deal with measures to mitigate the spread after experiencing something like this. This will lead to a lower rate of spread than before the lockdown, where half the people weren't even taking the issue seriously, and companies etc. were still scrambling to understand what was going on, and what the could do.
Some answers from those backing the UK's plan would be greatly appreciated.
We are saving the lockdown for when we need it most
Currently, without drastic measures, the virus is spreading exponentially. Each day that you leave people interacting with each other, you are adding thousands of cases down the line in a couple of weeks, with potentially thousands of those needing hospital care. Surely it makes sense to limit the number of cases as early as physically possible, to allow for proper treatment of those in bad shape, while also having some form of capacity to treat the growing(much slower) number of new cases, which are an inevitability? Also, if the over 70s, who you claim would end up looking after the kids in a lockdown, are locked down themselves, who will be looking after the kids?
What is the point of going into lockdown when the virus has already spread far wider than the health service can handle? How will the country cope with that level of sickness, even from a mild cases perspective, where people will have to stop working and quarantine no matter the sector?
If we close everything down, who is going to look after children etc.
Some of the stats being thrown around regarding the amount of health care workers etc. that would literally have to stop working to look after their children seem wildly exaggerated. Other countries are having to deal with this scenario now, are they failing? It's a one in a life time situation, solutions will be found to these sorts of non-essential questions. The amount of companies allowing people to work from home, closing down for a number of weeks in the case of full blown lockdown will mitigate this issue considerably.
Once these other countries stop the strict isolation measures, it's back to square one
This is just such a ridiculous argument, do you think all of these countries are just going to announce that people should resume licking each other's faces 9AM Monday morning after the lockdown? Clearly, governments and businesses will be equipped with more knowledge, and better plans to cope with community spread after this period of lockdown, more will be known about the virus, and in general, people will be better equipped to deal with measures to mitigate the spread after experiencing something like this. This will lead to a lower rate of spread than before the lockdown, where half the people weren't even taking the issue seriously, and companies etc. were still scrambling to understand what was going on, and what the could do.
Some answers from those backing the UK's plan would be greatly appreciated.
432JuanMata
Full Member
Yeah I don’t know the site I’m on updates every minute hasn’t reported any deaths today yet(official report will update later) Iran has 131 UK 14 Spain 93 etc but Italy hasn’t updated yetWtf, in the last day??
4bars
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not even 24 hoursWtf, in the last day??
Why are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.Wtf, in the last day??
432JuanMata
Full Member
Italy are at 8% deaths wow. I know they have the oldest population in Europe but that is insanely highTweet
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Hugh Jass
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Same in Ireland last night. All dancing.I went into Cardiff yesterday for a meal and it was incredible how busy it was.
Unfortunately, as Brits it's in our nature in the event of a crisis to just head to the pub.
Pubs shutting down now, but its probably too late.
Restaurants and coffee shops will probably follow suit.
TrustInOle
Full Member
Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
2 weeks after the lockdown. So at earliest, end of next week. Assuming that it has worked on the first place (China did more than a lockdown and wash your hands strategy).fecking hell. When do we expect to see the effect of the lock down?
And by that, I mean the number of deaths will stop increasing. It will still be on the hundreds daily for a long time to go.
PreachWhy are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.
That is devastating.Tweet
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psychdelicblues
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aw blessIn a month we'll be bored with this news. It'll be royal babies soon enough. If you didn't read the news you'd never even know.
Irwin99
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The numbers in Iran are pretty shocking. Can anybody tell me why they've been affected so quickly and is it just older people that are making up the numbers? I know Italy has an ageing population but i'm wondering if that's the same for Iran.
yeah I really fail to understand people’s brains sometimes.Why are people getting surprised. It is a fecking exponential function, it is supposed to work this way. In less than a week it is gonna be thousands daily deaths.
Overwhelmed medical system. This is why ‘lol it is just 1% mortality’ brigade are stupid. 1% is a fecking disaster if 70% get infected, but even worse, 1% is only with a medic near you. With an overwhelmed medical system, it is gonna be much more (easily, 4%, probably as big as 10%). Essentially, everyone who needs a ventilator will die.Italy are at 8% deaths wow. I know they have the oldest population in Europe but that is insanely high
Drawfull
Full Member
Thanks, I went to google after my post in any case. I think there will be a good effect. The Washington Post corona simulator, whilst not reassuring (that'd be the wrong word), does show how the measures implemented are intended to work.2 weeks after the lockdown. So at earliest, end of next week. Assuming that it has worked on the first place (China did more than a lockdown and wash your hands strategy).
And by that, I mean the number of deaths will stop increasing. It will still be on the hundreds daily for a long time to go.
jymufc20
Last Man Standing finalist 2019/20
I'm in the same boat, very anxious about sending them in, under current guidelines I think we legally have to send them in unless they are unwell themselves.Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
Starkie_1
Affluent and Likeminded
Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.Out of curiosity, and also aimed at UK residents. What are you doing with your children tomorrow? I am extremely anxious about sending them in. Haven't heard a dime from their school and no one seems to be able to give me any clear advice on the matter.
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TMDaines
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Whilst a reasonable observation, we’d need more data points to confirm.The UK's arc is worrying there. It's difficult to see because of how cramped it is around that point but it looks like most countries the arc flips from exponential to logarithmic by now whereas the UK is still exponential.
I just can’t see though how any country in Western Europe can possibly be doing the volumes of testing required to accurately survey the growth in cases. I can see how they can do sampling to get high confidence ranges, but this volume of testing requires so much manpower. We’re not set up for that like East Asian countries perhaps are. We were doing more tests than any other Western Europe country outside of Italy and even they were not considered to be doing enough.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/