SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[mu4c_20le]

I read something about Harvard estimating that there is about 50x more cases than we actually know about? Is that true?

Sounds like Facebook nonsense.

 

[Revan]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

granted Wuhan is a city but I don't anyone was expecting this at the start of the outbreak.

Except those that were expecting it. Like pretty much every expert. But what do they know?

Wuhan started lockdown at 400 cases, while doing more testing than Italy. Italy started the lockdown on a few thousand cases. Of course it it gonna be worse than in Wuhan, heck it is very likely that Italy is gonna reach the point (in the next week or two) that in a single day there are gonna be more deaths than accumulated deaths in Wuhan.

And it is gonna be soon in UK, and US and all the other stupid countries that are not taking this seriously. While China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Israel are gonna be fine cause they don’t have morons in charge.

 

[DOTA]

Why?

The bit where you're painting your behaviour as wise and sensible unlike those panicking idiotic poors.

This isn't just reckless. This is M&S recklessness.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

Because at this point the cat is out of the bag. If the goal was to catch cases and quarantine to prevent transmission, testing would be great, which is what S. Korea has successfully done more or less.

Now testing would be a waste of resources given the already wide-spread prevalence. Waste of testing kits, personnell to do, ppe equipment etc.

FYI I am ICU physician in USA.

Maybe a better explanation here.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Thanks. Good luck in your work.

 

[kps88]

there’s no reason at the moment to lock myself away. Nobody ill and nobody knows anybody that is ill. When things escalate that may change.

But you have no way of knowing that is true of everyone in a packed pub. There's a middle line between self isolation and going to crowded places.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Well, both really.

It was basically saying that for every known cast there is 50 that we don’t know about.

A lot of experts have said that the real number of infected people is much higher. Which is obvious when you think about it. This also means that the death rate is much lower in reality. Maybe even not too different from the common flu (that part is speculation). That should not matter though as many deaths will be a function of the medical facilities being overwhelmed which is the really scary thing. That's why the slowing down of the spread should be top priority.

 

[Ubik]

Because at this point the cat is out of the bag. If the goal was to catch cases and quarantine to prevent transmission, testing would be great, which is what S. Korea has successfully done more or less.

Now testing would be a waste of resources given the already wide-spread prevalence. Waste of testing kits, personnell to do, ppe equipment etc.

FYI I am ICU physician in USA.

Maybe a better explanation here.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

As he says in the thread however, that's due to a lack of testing resources leading to them needing to be targeted.

 

[UncleBob]

Im head of PE at a very large primary school and myself, and my Pe team who are all self employed, plus the 40-50 staff and 800 + children will be in as normal tomorrow and for the foreseeable future. I’ve just actually had a roast and few drinks in a local pubs alongside a lot of the parents. Luckily we live and work in a very affluent and likeminded area, not mass panic. People doing as they’re told and getting on with it whilst getting on with life too.

Sadly you're all morons.

 

[The Firestarter]

Those in charge in some of the countries may find themselves lucky if they are convicted and imprisoned .

 

[Revan]

I've found repeatedly that majority of peope dont grasp some basic math concepts even if they've had not terrible grades on the subject in school, which has been mostly due to learning how to solve the problems mechanically .

A total failure of educational system.

 

[Starkie_1]

The bit where you're painting your behaviour as wise and sensible unlike those panicking idiotic poors.

This isn't just reckless. This is M&S recklessness.

Nice of you to leave the rest of my post off your reply. Do whatever you want. If you want to believe you’re doing the right thing, good for you. I’ll stick to doing what my school and local council, department of education and government has told us to do. When that changes I’ll do what is expected.

 

[Revan]

Sounds like Facebook nonsense.

Harvard school really estimated that. Is the estimation true is hard to know, but it certainly is over 10x hidden infected for every infected.

 

[DOTA]

Nice of you to leave the rest of my post off your reply. Do whatever you want. If you want to believe you’re doing the right thing, good for you. I’ll stick to doing what my school and local council, department of education and government has told us to do. When that changes I’ll do what is expected.

The rest of your post had nothing to do with you looking down on poor people.

 

[Drawfull]

I mean it will plateau eventually, the virus will eventually run out of hosts. But in countries that have gone too far, expecting a lockdown to just bring about that immediate plateau and stop the virus in its tracks is naive. You are still going to have exponential growth after a lockdown, unless you hold it until the last possible moment.

Anyone who was hoping to look at Italy in the next few days and see a miracle is going to be disappointed. The virus is everywhere and there are still too many possible hosts first.

I missed the plateau word from your initial comment. Any lockdown will slow the growth in new cases, its main purpose to help health services. I expect to see a slow down in new cases in Italy shortly, and here in Spain, in a couple weeks. That's all I was getting at.

 

[Wumminator]

C’mon cut it out. The last thing this place needs is people on their high horses gliding in and trying to shame people who are actually adhering to the guidance being given.

No. That is exactly what society needs.

If you’re going out to packed pubs right now; you’re selfish. Simple as that.

 

[Starkie_1]

Sadly you're all morons.

Nice. Well put Sir. How’s hiding away in your bunker, stockpiling the toilet rolls and sending panicked messages to people you’ve never met on the internet going for you?

The 24 hours news and constant misinformation is going to be the biggest issue the current plan has to overcome.

 

[mu4c_20le]

Harvard school really estimated that. Is the estimation true is hard to know, but it certainly is over 10x hidden infected for every infected.

I just want to see some reasoning behind those numbers, otherwise it sounds like someone just attached the Harvard name to add credibility. Tried searching on google but found nothing.

 

[Revan]

No. That is exactly what society needs.

If you’re going out to packed pubs right now; you’re selfish. Simple as that.

Worse than that, if you’re going to a packed pub you’re a killer.

 

[adexkola]

A total failure of educational system.

Yeah, when people say they don't like/understand math/stats I ascribe it to poor teachers

 

[Siorac]

Nice of you to leave the rest of my post off your reply. Do whatever you want. If you want to believe you’re doing the right thing, good for you. I’ll stick to doing what my school and local council, department of education and government has told us to do. When that changes I’ll do what is expected.

I thought even the UK recommends social distancing at least.

 

[adexkola]

Worse than that, if you’re going to a packed pub you’re a killer.

Steady on now

 

[4bars]

In my urbanizacion in Spain, behind my house there's an apartment block with a communal pool for its residents. I'm not going out to take a pic (I can hear it), but there are approaching dozens of families with their kids around it as if nothing is going on. It boggles the mind.

My local Carrefour had no delivery slots for a week this morning which is unprecedented, and are limiting (with no checks, despite what the site says) online orders to the elderly, those in quarantine or those that are ill, incapacitated whatever. I kinda qualify for the incapacity thing (but felt bad clicking to say as much) and went ahead and ordered some shit - but there was NOTHING that I really needed in stock. No eggs, no pasta, no tinned tomatoes (even ketchup is out of stock) no bread, no meat. Ended buying shitty quality stuff.

End times.

What we were talking about yesterday... Spain will be much worse than Italy. Specially after the PM speech yesterday

 

[Wumminator]

Nice. Well put Sir. How’s hiding away in your bunker, stockpiling the toilet rolls and sending panicked messages to people you’ve never met on the internet going for you?

The 24 hours news and constant misinformation is going to be the biggest issue the current plan has to overcome.

How can you look at a virus that is just getting started killing around 500 people in a day and think “24/7 news has a lot to answer for”

People who are staying in who desperately want to go out? They're putting societies needs before their own. They are literally the people who are gonna help us out.

 

[Drawfull]

No. That is exactly what society needs.

If you’re going out to packed pubs right now; you’re selfish. Simple as that.

Yup

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

This is going to sound batshit crazy, but if one were worried about their elderly relatives - and decided to privately purchase a ventilator for home use should the ICU departments become full, I would presume that they are not something that a layman could safely operate or set up? And furthermore, the CPAP ones from Amazon which are designed for people with sleep Apnea are presumably not not suitable for intubating people with lung failure following Covid-19?

I know this sounds obvious. I'm just curious really.

@Arruda ?

 

[sullydnl]

No. That is exactly what society needs.

If you’re going out to packed pubs right now; you’re a stupid fecking cnut. Simple as that.

Fixed.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Nice of you to leave the rest of my post off your reply. Do whatever you want. If you want to believe you’re doing the right thing, good for you. I’ll stick to doing what my school and local council, department of education and government has told us to do. When that changes I’ll do what is expected.

All of these are irrelevant, just adding them to make it sound like these bodies have also come to the same conclusion as the government to add weight is erroneous. They're following government advice and that's it, none of them want to be the outlier.

 

[0le]

It's the Conservative ethos manifested as an action plan to my eyes.

If the government had carried out a different plan, there would almost certainly be a different group of scientists who disagree with it. Science is full of disagreement and always will be. Consequently we would have similar newspaper articles where a group of scentists question the plan and it would follow that there would be people from the general public who question that plan. This means there will always be people from the general public, with zero relevant qualifications in the science either A) reading some articles written by journalists with no relevant background and assume the entire plan is wrong B) listening to scientists (through these articles etc) who disagree with the plan, despite the fact that there will always be disagreement. So regardless of how the government inteprets the science, they are damned if they do and damned if they don't.

 

[balaks]

This is going to sound batshit crazy, but if one were worried about their elderly relatives - and decided to privately purchase a ventilator for home use should the ICU departments become full, I would presume that they are not something that a layman could safely operate or set up? And furthermore, the CPAP ones from Amazon which are designed for people with sleep Apnea are presumably not not suitable for intubating people with lung failure following Covid-19?

I know this sounds obvious. I'm just curious really.

@Arruda ?

You need on average 4 nurses and a doctor to operate a ventilator in normal times.

 

[Sweet Square]

Except those that were expecting it. Like pretty much every expert. But what do they know?

Wuhan started lockdown at 400 cases, while doing more testing than Italy. Italy started the lockdown on a few thousand cases. Of course it it gonna be worse than in Wuhan, heck it is very likely that Italy is gonna reach the point (in the next week or two) that in a single day there are gonna be more deaths than accumulated deaths in Wuhan.

And it is gonna be soon in UK, and US and all the other stupid countries that are not taking this seriously. While China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Israel are gonna be fine cause they don’t have morons in charge.

Is this all you've got ? Because it's rather boring,.

And it is gonna be soon in UK, and US and all the other stupid countries that are not taking this seriously. While China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Israel are gonna be fine cause they don’t have morons in charge.

We don't know this as they are still in lockdown(In particular China). Personally I think it's clear the tories in Britain aren't taking it seriously(Although thats for a whole number of reasons, not duh they be stupid!)but at the moment no one know what we will happened when China tries to returned back to some sort of normality.

 

[TMDaines]

I read something about Harvard estimating that there is about 50x more cases than we actually know about? Is that true?

Can’t find anything on that. Last Thursday, Sir Patrick Vallance and Chris Whitty were confident the number of cases vs those test positive different by 10-20x.

If you’re looking for a miracle,I think the only one possible for this to end sooner than we currently anticipate, is that this virus is way more widespread than we estimate, more people than we understand are asymptomatic, and this things burns through its hosts quicker with no where to go.

 

[Member 90887]

No. That is exactly what society needs.

If you’re going out to packed pubs right now; you’re selfish. Simple as that.

Exactly.

 

[Di Maria's angel]

Don’t live in Italy. Do you? It’s horrible I agree. But it’s happening. Deal with that and start reacting with some sense of reality.

Im encouraging people to listen to the experts and the advice in their own countries. When I am told I cannot work, or go to see family and friends I will listen and do as I’m told. As will everyone I know and their social/family circles. What I won’t do is panic and listen to people on a football Internet forum who think they know better.

Its people with this very view who have caused the biggest issues across the planet. The reason Italy have almost amassed 2000 deaths is because they went on with their lives and made nothing of this virus. Don't listen to me. Open your eyes and just see whats happening around the planet.

 

[Starkie_1]

Worse than that, if you’re going to a packed pub you’re a killer.

Genuine question. Now you’ve labelled myself and others, of all ages and all different backgrounds ‘killers’ can you tell me where you’ve got your evidence for your claim? Also, now I’m a killer, would you say the doctor, police man, teacher, retail manager, health worker, social worker and therapist I’ve been out with are also killers?

 

[TMDaines]

You need on average 4 nurses and a doctor to operate a ventilator in normal times.

Can you get those from Amazon too?

 

[Drawfull]

What we were talking about yesterday... Spain will be much worse than Italy. Specially after the PM speech yesterday

I agree to a point - and I have made some stupid choices the past couple of days as well, so I guess I'm in with the idiots to some extent. However, now I am locked down totally, looking out at those that don't seem to give a feck.

 

[sullydnl]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[golden_blunder]

https://www.businessinsider.com/tru...020-3?amp&r=US&IR=T&__twitter_impression=true

What.the.feck!?!?

 

[17 Van der Gouw]

You need on average 4 nurses and a doctor to operate a ventilator in normal times.

Jeez, so actually the stress on the health service isn't going to just be lack of ventilators, but staff numbers required to maintain the intubated patients.

Thanks for reply.

 

[432JuanMata]

Ireland reporting 40 new cases today so up too 169.