LilyWhiteSpur
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Well you do have 10 fingersYes now people have ten guns each as opposed to a few.
Well you do have 10 fingersYes now people have ten guns each as opposed to a few.
It's not unthinkable that mortality will go down to 0.5% or something when the dust settles. We do not know the extent at this point.Wuhan is about as good a case study we'll ever have for an epidemic like this.
Like I said yesterday, the faster they can develop an antibody test and get China to test the vast majority of people there - then we'll really know the true extent of this.
That may well happen. Was supposed to go to US on May 1 for my first holidays in 2 years but it's probably out of question already. Hope I can do that by the end of year. I have Zanzibar booked for October but it's more of my wife's dream than mine.I actually think what this may do is completely kill freedom of travel to other countries, at least for a few years. When we all come out of full lockdown (which will happen even in the UK) then we will have to have closed borders for a period of time so that we don’t get any incoming infection from countries that are lagging behind us still. Then when you think how horrible this will be in India and Africa.....
Not yet, but there's already been reports of fully healthy doctors between 30-50 critically sick because of this. We've asked recently retired professionals to come help out which has led to over 1k applications, very admirable imo. It's all about flattening the curve, some math models have us at 4.5k infections after next weekend, which is doable for our hospitals. They're already making free extra capacity in tents, sports centra and the likes, which is definitely a good thing to react so proactive. How our health system will be able to deal with this goes a long way into how many deaths there will ultimately be.Is there figures on how many nurses and doctors the lockdown has taken out of the system? A lockdown will slow the spread long term but the deathrate would surely go up short term?
Also European countries have population density slightly in their favour. Hubei province had the largest portion of cases in China and that area is far denser and has the same population or more than most EU countries. Geography plays a big part in this too.I think it'll be much higher than that.
Using some poor math and assumptions (they really are poor assumptions because China their definition diagnosis half way through and their lockdown was even more stringent than Italy IIRC). Say the day you have 400 cases is Day 1. And you peak at 80k after 14 days with a uniform increase.
Now if you lag, that and make the day you have 1000 cases as your day 1. Your peak day (14) is then at 240k.
Even if the virus is completely gone in Europe, would you still leave on holiday care-free if you know it's lingering somewhere in Tanzania or nearby in Africa? I personally wouldn't - the most comforting thing to me right now is that I'm living in a place where the healthcare is almost as good as it gets in the world.That may well happen. Was supposed to go to US on May 1 for my first holidays in 2 years but it's probably out of question already. Hope I can do that by the end of year. I have Zanzibar booked for October but it's more of my wife's dream than mine.
Nope, wouldn't go to Africa at all if it's present there in any form - unless I already had it and knew I was completely immune or unlikely to get re-infected. I'd go to US just fine, only I'd buy good insurance before. I'd probably go in May if we are allowed to travel then, 90% of my trip will be within any people present within 100 meters. Airport would be a concern.Even if the virus is completely gone in Europe, would you still leave on holiday care-free if you know it's lingering somewhere in Tanzania or nearby in Africa? I personally wouldn't - the most comforting thing to me is that I'm living in a place where the healthcare is almost as good as it gets in the world.
I'm not saying its all going to be all right but the very worst chances of dying from this are about 0.003% We have a population of 65m and the Imperial College Model from yesterday said we would at the very worst have 250,000 deaths. This is terrible but you can't say Boris was lying when he said the chances were "quite small".As things build, it is worth remembering Johnsons first speech about this
"... it should be business as usual for the overwhelming majority of people in this country, for the simple reason this is a great country, massively strong economy,...
The scientists have done a very good job of explaining to us what the risks are, and they are really quite small. They are appreciable, but quite small”
At the point he said this, several countries were in complete lockdown to control it. There are no excuses.
That’s the lag in the system. It takes about 2 weeks for a shutdown to be effective.Lockdown going well then.
I meant more in terms of deaths rather than new cases, a lockdown will put more pressure on a countries health service.That’s the lag in the system. It takes about 2 weeks for a shutdown to be effective.
You’ve never heard of an asymptomatic carrier ever before? It’s a thing.Please enlightne me, there has been plenty written on this but no answer that I can find. There have been a confirmed case of a new born baby being born with Covid 19 only to be given the all clear less than 17 hours later.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0412_articleAsymptomatic carrier transmission has been reported for SARS-CoV-2 (2); hence, patient A could have been screened as a close contact during her incubation period and then hospitalized on the basis of a positive test (PCR) result only. However, her clinical symptoms did not appear until after hospitalization. Because persons with asymptomatic COVID-19 can spread the virus, patient A also could have been an asymptomatic carrier with a persistent infection
Yeah I'm aware of that. But going back to a place where I don't have any obvious way of self-isolating isn't great either. Here I have an apartment where my partner and I can sleep in separate bedrooms and use separate bathrooms if needed. If we go to Denmark we would have to go live with someone else in a more confined space most likely. I don't wanna drag anything back to my parents or to hers for that matter.You do realise that there is no guarantee that you will be ok if you do end up getting it? Not sure why you would want to be in one of the poorest countries in the world over one of the richest in that scenario.
And so will more people needing critical care. But only one of them is going to change exponentially.I meant more in terms of deaths rather than new cases, a lockdown will put more pressure on a countries health service.
Amazed at the queues of people wanting to buy guns. Certain industries are going to do well out of this outbreak.I'd rather be where my support system is best. Friends and family. Plus yanks will start going berzerk with guns in a few weeks
Of course i have, its been known that infected people can be contageous 2 days before showing signs. My point is kids dont ever seem to show signs, like i said there was the case of a new born baby having Covid 19 at bith and then being clear less than a day later. There is a thought that due to lung development the virus doesnt take hold and dies in children.You’ve never heard of an asymptomatic carrier ever before? It’s a thing.
As to this virus...
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0412_article
The discussion is if they are contagious, not it they are symptomatic. That’s 2 completely different things.Of course i have, its been known that infected people can be contageous 2 days before showing signs. My point is kids dont ever seem to show signs, like i said there was the case of a new born baby having Covid 19 at bith and then being clear less than a day later. There is a thought that due to lung development the virus doesnt take hold and dies in children.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why...ng-sick-from-coronavirus-20200302-p545x8.html
I know....The discussion is if they are contagious, not it they are symptomatic. That’s 2 completely different things.
Yeah, organisation and team cultures should reflect on whether they are doing enough to empower and trust their employees if people are still presenting sick with these guidelines widely known.It's a cultural thing. Most organisations just don't trust their employees, so people feel like they need to prove that they're genuine.
How?I meant more in terms of deaths rather than new cases, a lockdown will put more pressure on a countries health service.
Lockdown, kids are at home with no child care some doctors and nurses will have to stay at home to look after them. More presure on the health service.How?
That's 0.3% not 0.003%. Not only it's quite high, it's also underestimated and doesn't take into consideration people who will die because they don't get quality healthcare because beds are occupied by coronavirus patients.I'm not saying its all going to be all right but the very worst chances of dying from this are about 0.003% We have a population of 65m and the Imperial College Model from yesterday said we would at the very worst have 250,000 deaths. This is terrible but you can't say Boris was lying when he said the chances were "quite small".
Compared to cases growing by 30-50% each day it's nothing.Lockdown, kids are at home with no child care some doctors and nurses will have to stay at home to look after them. More presure on the health service.
Hopefully now. I’m not so sure you did about a half hour ago.I know....
Think you might have got your decimal point in the wrong place there! Multiply those chances by 100I'm not saying its all going to be all right but the very worst chances of dying from this are about 0.003% We have a population of 65m and the Imperial College Model from yesterday said we would at the very worst have 250,000 deaths. This is terrible but you can't say Boris was lying when he said the chances were "quite small".
Where are you getting this from?I'm not saying its all going to be all right but the very worst chances of dying from this are about 0.003% We have a population of 65m and the Imperial College Model from yesterday said we would at the very worst have 250,000 deaths. This is terrible but you can't say Boris was lying when he said the chances were "quite small".
If you say so, as pleasent as ever i see.Hopefully now. I’m not so sure you did about a half hour ago.
seems a bit low but who knows. Symptomatic cases for my group 30s death rate 0.08% estimatedWhere are you getting this from?
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'We'll find ourselves implementing most of Jeremy Corbyn's programme' is how he put it
Yeah Iran is what over 20 degrees mostly, no sign of slowing at all.This fecker doesn't mind warm whether it seems. Lovely.
I put some hope in it, as even if it comes in 2nd wave we could be a bit a more prepared. Absolute worst scenario imo.Yeah Iran is what over 20 degrees mostly, no sign of slowing at all.
Worth pointing out that Singapore never closed its schools and people praised their extreme, hard response.Has Britain still not closed the schools?
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Parents, grandparents, school friends’ parents.Whos looking after the kids?
Don’t know much about Singapore. I just find it hard to understand how you can keep schools open when there’s a pandemic going on.Worth pointing out that Singapore never closed its schools and people praised their extreme, hard response.