Well you do have 10 fingers
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I actually think what this may do is completely kill freedom of travel to other countries, at least for a few years. When we all come out of full lockdown (which will happen even in the UK) then we will have to have closed borders for a period of time so that we don’t get any incoming infection from countries that are lagging behind us still. Then when you think how horrible this will be in India and Africa.....
It's not unthinkable that mortality will go down to 0.5% or something when the dust settles. We do not know the extent at this point.
That may well happen. Was supposed to go to US on May 1 for my first holidays in 2 years but it's probably out of question already. Hope I can do that by the end of year. I have Zanzibar booked for October but it's more of my wife's dream than mine.
Not yet, but there's already been reports of fully healthy doctors between 30-50 critically sick because of this. We've asked recently retired professionals to come help out which has led to over 1k applications, very admirable imo. It's all about flattening the curve, some math models have us at 4.5k infections after next weekend, which is doable for our hospitals. They're already making free extra capacity in tents, sports centra and the likes, which is definitely a good thing to react so proactive. How our health system will be able to deal with this goes a long way into how many deaths there will ultimately be.
People looking at Germany France and Spain and wondering how Germany's death rates are low with similar case amounts, well Germany have ramped up the testing
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticke...ndel-fordert-sofort-Direktzahlungen-vom-Staat
135k tested in last two weeks. We know Spain recently said just 30k tested. France was a 6k on 5th of March and probably at 20k before the lockdown.
So Germany will be testing lots of people with mild symptoms unlike France. I think this shows the outbreak is far less than in Spain or France. Of course some will be down to top healthcare in Germany but the big tourist spots of Italy, France and Spain are the forerunners. Germany is just up there with Korea like testing.
Reckon Germany will come out of this best.
https://www.tagesschau.de/newsticke...ndel-fordert-sofort-Direktzahlungen-vom-Staat
135k tested in last two weeks. We know Spain recently said just 30k tested. France was a 6k on 5th of March and probably at 20k before the lockdown.
So Germany will be testing lots of people with mild symptoms unlike France. I think this shows the outbreak is far less than in Spain or France. Of course some will be down to top healthcare in Germany but the big tourist spots of Italy, France and Spain are the forerunners. Germany is just up there with Korea like testing.
Reckon Germany will come out of this best.
Also European countries have population density slightly in their favour. Hubei province had the largest portion of cases in China and that area is far denser and has the same population or more than most EU countries. Geography plays a big part in this too.
Even if the virus is completely gone in Europe, would you still leave on holiday care-free if you know it's lingering somewhere in Tanzania or nearby in Africa? I personally wouldn't - the most comforting thing to me right now is that I'm living in a place where the healthcare is almost as good as it gets in the world.
Nope, wouldn't go to Africa at all if it's present there in any form - unless I already had it and knew I was completely immune or unlikely to get re-infected. I'd go to US just fine, only I'd buy good insurance before. I'd probably go in May if we are allowed to travel then, 90% of my trip will be within any people present within 100 meters. Airport would be a concern.
I'm not saying its all going to be all right but the very worst chances of dying from this are about 0.003% We have a population of 65m and the Imperial College Model from yesterday said we would at the very worst have 250,000 deaths. This is terrible but you can't say Boris was lying when he said the chances were "quite small".
That’s the lag in the system. It takes about 2 weeks for a shutdown to be effective.
I meant more in terms of deaths rather than new cases, a lockdown will put more pressure on a countries health service.
You’ve never heard of an asymptomatic carrier ever before? It’s a thing.
As to this virus...
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0412_article
Yeah I'm aware of that. But going back to a place where I don't have any obvious way of self-isolating isn't great either. Here I have an apartment where my partner and I can sleep in separate bedrooms and use separate bathrooms if needed. If we go to Denmark we would have to go live with someone else in a more confined space most likely. I don't wanna drag anything back to my parents or to hers for that matter.
Then there's an employment contract to adhere to as well.
And so will more people needing critical care. But only one of them is going to change exponentially.
Amazed at the queues of people wanting to buy guns. Certain industries are going to do well out of this outbreak.
Of course i have, its been known that infected people can be contageous 2 days before showing signs. My point is kids dont ever seem to show signs, like i said there was the case of a new born baby having Covid 19 at bith and then being clear less than a day later. There is a thought that due to lung development the virus doesnt take hold and dies in children.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/why...ng-sick-from-coronavirus-20200302-p545x8.html
The discussion is if they are contagious, not it they are symptomatic. That’s 2 completely different things.
I know....
Yeah, organisation and team cultures should reflect on whether they are doing enough to empower and trust their employees if people are still presenting sick with these guidelines widely known.
How?
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Lockdown, kids are at home with no child care some doctors and nurses will have to stay at home to look after them. More presure on the health service.
That's 0.3% not 0.003%. Not only it's quite high, it's also underestimated and doesn't take into consideration people who will die because they don't get quality healthcare because beds are occupied by coronavirus patients.
Compared to cases growing by 30-50% each day it's nothing.
Hopefully now. I’m not so sure you did about a half hour ago.
Think you might have got your decimal point in the wrong place there! Multiply those chances by 100
Where are you getting this from?
If you say so, as pleasent as ever i see.
This fecker doesn't mind warm whether it seems. Lovely.
seems a bit low but who knows. Symptomatic cases for my group 30s death rate 0.08% estimated
Yeah Iran is what over 20 degrees mostly, no sign of slowing at all.This fecker doesn't mind warm whether it seems. Lovely.
I put some hope in it, as even if it comes in 2nd wave we could be a bit a more prepared. Absolute worst scenario imo.
Worth pointing out that Singapore never closed its schools and people praised their extreme, hard response.
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Parents, grandparents, school friends’ parents.
Australia is about 20-30 degrees, varies each day but the virus is looking to have taken hold, 451 cases and 5 deaths out of 24 million, they're just a bit behind by a 1-2 weeks
I suppose Europe can reach 40+ these days. Perhaps temps in the 30-40 range can affect it but UK and others will be 20-30 mostly this summer.
I suppose Europe can reach 40+ these days. Perhaps temps in the 30-40 range can affect it but UK and others will be 20-30 mostly this summer.
Don’t know much about Singapore. I just find it hard to understand how you can keep schools open when there’s a pandemic going on.
Italy is to renationalise Alitalia.