SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

sullydnl

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A genuine concern that has crossed my mind is how Ireland will handle the eventual re-opening of pubs.

In pretty much every other area I can see us being sensible as lockdown measures are gradually lifted but social distancing is kept in place. People will stay relatively well disciplined, I suspect.

In the particular case of the pubs though, I can't even imagine that happening. As soon as they open their doors there will be an absolute pile in. Which is a problem given this will presumably happen before a vaccine is available but also at a point where there is still a large swathe of the population yet to be infected.

The lockdown itself is absolutely fine but handling things post-lockdown will be much trickier.
 

17 Van der Gouw

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The cnut next door is having people over, she's having other kids over to play with hers. She's a mega twat.
I mean, my instinct is to tell the cops.

...but then, what if she's looking after children whose parents are in hospital with Coronavirus?

Then again, she can always tell that to the cops.
 

Lennon7

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It’s more so him stating we need draconian measures etc, asking for manslaughter and premeditated murder charges, it was quite an emphatic stance to take. But then hes returned from a country that was put on the high risk and gone out shopping straight away. Wasnt anything to do with what you’ve said.
Yeah, that’s a fair point. It’s an OTT stance to take, but having followed orders and returned home I assume the man needs to eat. Hopefully he followed procedure ie washing hands, 2metres etc but needs must - we can’t completely avoid certain essential trips.

Wasn’t aware Thailand is any higher risk than here, though?
 

antsmithmk

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I know we have not got numbers for everyone who has covid 19 but 1019 deaths from 17089 positives means nearly 6% death rate. That is seriously worrying.
We are only testing those who end up in hospital... They are the people who are seriously ill from it.
 

Compton22

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I know we have not got numbers for everyone who has covid 19 but 1019 deaths from 17089 positives means nearly 6% death rate. That is seriously worrying.
You can't put the death rate as a percentage against those tested who need hospital treatment. That is not an accurate representation of the death rate for the disease as a whole
 

Dumbstar

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I've just had a look at middle Eastern countries affected. Their deaths are negligible or single digits. Could be lack of management of the issue but then Iran seems to buck that trend and then some. What's going on there then (not Iran, we know about them)?
 

sullydnl

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Puts current numbers into context. Still a long way to go.
 

Skills

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A genuine concern that has crossed my mind is how Ireland will handle the eventual re-opening of pubs.

In pretty much every other area I can see us being sensible as lockdown measures are gradually lifted but social distancing is kept in place. People will stay relatively well disciplined, I suspect.

In the particular case of the pubs though, I can't even imagine that happening. As soon as they open their doors there will be an absolute pile in. Which is a problem given this will presumably happen before a vaccine is available but also at a point where there is still a large swathe of the population yet to be infected.

The lockdown itself is absolutely fine but handling things post-lockdown will be much trickier.
Pubs & Restaurants should be one of the last things to open tbh
 

Olly Gunnar Solskjær

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Call the police.
Call the police.
Report that shit straight away.
According to a message on Facebook another neighbour is going to (or has done), which is good, she's absolutely awful and would make living next to her unbearable for the one that reported her.


I mean, my instinct is to tell the cops.

...but then, what if she's looking after children whose parents are in hospital with Coronavirus?

Then again, she can always tell that to the cops.
AFAIK, she's had other adults over too, not just kids, like their parents and stuff.

Call the midwife.
:lol:
 

Drawfull

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According to a message on Facebook another neighbour is going to (or has done), which is good, she's absolutely awful and would make living next to her unbearable for the one that reported her.



AFAIK, she's had other adults over too, not just kids, like their parents and stuff.


:lol:
If she's that bad, I would leave 'em to it. Let nature do its work.
 

sullydnl

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Pubs & Restaurants should be one of the last things to open tbh
Tbf restaurants seemed to manage social distancing a lot better than the pubs did. But yeah, they definitely will be the last to open. I don't think either we or the UK have the restraint to see pubs re-opening as anything other than a cue for a piss up.
 

Samid

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Where did that new case figure come from, @Samid? I'm seeing on La Repubblica that today there's 3,651 new positive cases, as opposed to 4,401 yesterday.

The number of recovered is 1,434 (589 yesterday).


 

Snafu17

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Where did that new case figure come from, @Samid? I'm seeing on La Repubblica that today there's 3,651 new positive cases, as opposed to 4,401 yesterday.

The number of recovered is 1,434 (589 yesterday).
I think these are new active cases. If you subtract the deaths and the recovered from the newly infected you get La Repubblica's number.
 

11101

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Where did that new case figure come from, @Samid? I'm seeing on La Repubblica that today there's 3,651 new positive cases, as opposed to 4,401 yesterday.

The number of recovered is 1,434 (589 yesterday).
Civil Protection Agency always reports active cases first as that is what they are most concerned with for hospital utilisation.

Apparently hospitalizations and ICU admissions have been reducing drastically the last few days, not sure why that is.
 

Revan

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It is not an upper bound. Deaths lag behind, so it could easily rise. People were saying the same thing about S Korea when it was 0.4%, now it is well over 1%. For the record i think true CFR will be around 0.5%-1%. But Germany doesn't provide an upper limit at the moment like you claim
Fair point. But active cases (which can die) and the silent cases (which are not tested and documented) probably balance each other.
 

Snafu17

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Yes, I was posting the new case figures.
There's 5974 new cases. There's 3651 new active cases. 5974 people tested positive but 1434 recovered and 889 died so there are now 3651 more people hospitalised than there were yesterday.
 

Penna

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There's 5974 new cases. There's 3651 new active cases. 5974 people tested positive but 1434 recovered and 889 died so there are now 3651 more people hospitalised.
The new active cases are the main concern, though (notwithstanding the deaths, but those can't be controlled by national quarantine), surely? It's the daily new active positives that we need to focus on. The way it's reported in the press makes more sense to me, although I may be simplifying things.
 

Snafu17

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The new active cases are the main concern, though (notwithstanding the deaths, but those can't be controlled by national quarantine), surely? It's the daily new active positives that we need to focus on. The way it's reported in the press makes more sense to me, although I may be simplifying things.
I mean, it's all data, it all has it's uses. You could technically have negative new active cases, but if there still a thousand newly infected every day you probably wouldn't lift the quarantine measures just yet.
 

Penna

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I mean, it's all data, it all has it's uses. You could technically have negative new active cases, but if there still a thousand newly infected every day you probably wouldn't lift the quarantine measures just yet.
Yes, you're right on that. But as long as new infections are falling, it means something's working. It's great to see the numbers for recovered people rise, but sadly we can't affect the deaths once people have already caught it, beyond what the hospitals are doing.
 

Fortitude

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Liar!
to base your entire argument on that is a bit daft. It's also daft to not use a bit of common sense when you can go two weeks without showing any symptoms. I know it's difficult for you to understand that because, as you've already asserted; you think I think I'm a bird.

It's EXTREMELY daft to get so uppity about the whole thing as well so I recommend you spend a couple of weeks thinking about why you're so defensive all the time on this forum. Preferably indoors and maintaining six feet of distance between you and others.
:lol:
Six is the number after you've counted all the fingers one hand, just in case you're struggling. Again; I'm not an actual bird. Please try and remember that.
:lol:
 

Withnail

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A genuine concern that has crossed my mind is how Ireland will handle the eventual re-opening of pubs.

In pretty much every other area I can see us being sensible as lockdown measures are gradually lifted but social distancing is kept in place. People will stay relatively well disciplined, I suspect.

In the particular case of the pubs though, I can't even imagine that happening. As soon as they open their doors there will be an absolute pile in. Which is a problem given this will presumably happen before a vaccine is available but also at a point where there is still a large swathe of the population yet to be infected.

The lockdown itself is absolutely fine but handling things post-lockdown will be much trickier.
I honestly think it'll be long time before the pubs are open again. I'd say they'll be one of the last things to come back for obvious reasons as you've said yourself.

I'm not sure why you think they'll open the pubs before we're out of the woods with this thing.
 

Ady87

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I now know 2 people hospitalised from this. One of them is my brother in laws mum (critical) and one of them works in my office, but not my room. He is 32. The room he works in only sent people home to work on Wednesday last week. The numbers in my area are about to rocket I inagine.
 

Revan

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America has a sixth of the worlds cases.
It's either the US has been very good with testing and the other numbers are shit or the US response to this has been diabolical. The rate of infection in America is something else.
Both I guess. The Us has done more tests than any other country, and is doing over 100k tests per day.

It also is very big, decentralized and the population is build over a libertarian system, which makes the virus easy to be spread.
 

Unlikely lad

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At Oslo University Hospital, Scientists say they may have an anti-body ready in 3-4 weeks. If the test works as good as it seems. If/When all is good with that test it will tell us how to handle the pandemic.

Since the virus is so recent in many humans, some time will go before we have all the answers. When some time has passed after the infection, we can say more about the quality of the anti-bodies.

The Anti-body tests can be run at high volumes in machines at hospitals.

The best possible scenario is that the tests shows that we get herd immunity for life from this Virus, like chickenpox. That means no more Covid-19 in a year or two. Or it could be that when the virus hits again, it does not cause as severe symptoms and disease as the first time due to the antibodys left behind. Another scenario can be that the virus mutates enough to avoid the existing antibodies.

Corona will produce antibodies though.

And the infected persons immune defense will first produce immuneglobuling M (UgM). This happens while you are sick or contagious. Call it the intensive phase.

Then after a while, IgM disappears, and the body produces ImmuneGlobulin G (IgG). This gives vital information. If a patient has positiv IgM we now they have a recent infection, maybe active. If one just can detect IgG, we know the patient has been infected earlier. Right now the tests can tell to a certain degree when a person was infected, but in a year that will be impossible.

So now, the question is when our countries will be able to develop these tests, as they will be extremely valuable to tell us what we need to do forward in time. Estimates for Norway at least is that a test will not be finished before earliest a month from now.
The issue with the antibody tests currently being made is that they seem to be struggling in terms of specificity (according to the most recent literature, at least).

They seem to be picking up different corona viruses (inc. the seasonal ones, SARS, MERS etc..). More work is needed, but hopefully we'll get there soon enough. Would be game-changer for frontline staff.
 

Unlikely lad

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are the younger patients tubed or supplemental o2? Hope they are ok.
Most have/are doing ok with supplemental O2, but some are still currently intubated. ITU admissions have been softer those past 2 weeks, we need to be harsher - it sounds callous, but the numbers we've had so far shows that it's not worth blocking beds for likely poor outcomes.
 

Shakesy

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We live in an area with no confirmed cases, yet my wife has been experiencing shortness of breath for the last 3 days. She doesn't have a cough and also not a fever. Weird. Yet, we now worry she might have it.

Strange times.
 

Smores

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The issue with the antibody tests currently being made is that they seem to be struggling in terms of specificity (according to the most recent literature, at least).

They seem to be picking up different corona viruses (inc. the seasonal ones, SARS, MERS etc..). More work is needed, but hopefully we'll get there soon enough. Would be game-changer for frontline staff.
I'm intrigued what happens if the results come back and rather than bringing medics out of self-isolation it results in even more needing to self-isolate.