I shall utilize this kind of pitch when the quarantine is over.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
In case of B.C. , the first focus was in one of them. hopefully they took precautions but I am afraid that is unavoidable as a big % of the deaths happens there in everycountry
I hope Canada learnt from europe (not like US it seems) but the chronic shortage of medical personnel and a non centralized medical authority might create some difficulties. I see the authorities engaged and taking it seriously at list in their appearances. Will see their actions. I believe we should be in a more strict lock down
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Aren't this areas less dense? lucky dumb bastards....
I really think the government and provincial authorities are taking this extremely seriously. Also the people at least where I live are taking it seriously. When I go for a walk, everyone makes sure that the 2 metre distance is observed. I took my son Toronto to pick up some of his things as he has moved in with us. Traffic was almost non existent and when we went to the condo - we never saw anyone! That is amazing for a busy place. Let’s see if this translates to any flattening of the curve like B.C.
I'm nailing my doors shut tomorrow.
Trish Regan apparently fired from Fox, amidst fear that Fox can be sued for downplaying the risk from the virus. https://god.dailydot.com/fox-news-f...ABuNzpJ8ZrF2g2aB4exTqBSY8FjezzngRw3McuPp3uFlw
I am not sure if they can be really successfully sued, but it would be great if that happens. To be fair, Tucker should be safe cause he has been big into the risks from coronavirus since the beginning, but the others have been an absolute shambles.
I am not sure if they can be really successfully sued, but it would be great if that happens. To be fair, Tucker should be safe cause he has been big into the risks from coronavirus since the beginning, but the others have been an absolute shambles.
Friend of my wife's lives in New York and (understandably) monitoring situation carefully.
sent her this..... https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections ...... which projects American cases as one country and per state. Very scary as looks like there's a lot to come
sent her this..... https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections ...... which projects American cases as one country and per state. Very scary as looks like there's a lot to come
This is more like a best-case scenario rather than scary. When all this is done, if the US has only 93.5k deaths, then that would be a massive success. A bad flu season like that of 17-18 killed 60k people, this would be just 1.5 times as bad.
I am afraid it would be quite a bit worse. The White House deaths had a 95% interval confidence with 100k and 240k deaths as limits, which essentially has the point estimate at 170k. That is what probably will happen, which actually is nowhere as bad as some of the other projections.
Less and more
I wonder how those who were saying that this is just a bad flu in the first few pages of this thread are feeling about those statements now.
TBF this is new territory - just 3 weeks ago - at least for me and many people this was not “real”! How things have changed now.
I worded that badly. What you said is what I meant to get at - not a "Ha told you so". Going from thinking/hoping it was a fuss about nothing to the current shit show in such a shirt time takes some adjusting to.
Most people cannot think exponentially (or logarithmically). They might know the concepts, but still, for the most part, think linearly (like, it killed 2k in 3 months, how bad can it really be?).
It is also the reason why some people started panicking when they saw the number of deaths reaching a few hundred per day when in all likelihood, that was only the start and it was going to get much worse before was going to get better. Heck, even now, it is going to get much worse before it gets better (and then it might get worse again when countries start relaxing the constraints they have put).
I guess part of it is just luck. In country A patient zero is some loner living in a village and the initial spread is quite slow, in country B it's a person working in the city center who serves hundreds/thousands of people per day.
Agreed. When I saw the early guesstimate of R0, hospitalisation rates and ICU rates, did the ballpark figures and then looked at how few ICU beds we all have I have a huge "oh shit" moment.
The difference between an R0 of 1.3 and 3 after 10 generations of infection being 14 vs 49,000 people infected makes you go back and check your figures.
Exactly. And I don't know if it was a coincidence, but the R0 numbers you got seem to be close to the flu and guesstimated R0 for COVID-19. Even the 'it is just a flu' was real (obviously it is not) when it came to mortality, it is extremely more contagious. The flu in the US infects 20-25m people per year and kills 10-60k people for year. Without mitigation, this was going to easily reach 70% of the population which is 230m and kill 230k people. So, even if it was just as mild as the flu, it being so contagious makes this a disastrous disease.
Which is why 'this is just a flu' was wrong when some random person said, and extremely dangerous when politicians/media said it.
I would say most increases are now community spreading. If people would keep their distance it would be a lot better for all of us.
Nope definitely not me anyway
Not a huge amount really.
Obviously I was wrong but this was late Jan. I'd seen all the scare mongering over SARS, swine flu, bird flu etc etc and I didn't really appreciate the novel aspect.
I now know a lot more about epidiomology than I care to.
Ah, I understand. Thank you
I figured as much. We will get through this but it is truly unprecedente stuff!
Not unprecedented but hopefully once in a century event (the last one with a similar impact might have been the Spanish flu a century ago). Of course, we can hope that the fatalities would be much lower, mostly because of the mitigations we have been doing, but also because of the advancements of the medicine.
Yeah - should have said unprecedented in my lifetime. Hope my kids will never see one of these again.
How many deaths do we think we’ll see worldwide?
Hopefully under 5 million (current season). One month ago I thought it was going to be much worse. In countries where it is hard to mitigate (India, most African countries) I am afraid it is going to be particularly bad.
That would be a major victory IMO - stupid though that sounds.
I fear a much higher total but I hope you are right.
Yep, I know. Just a month ago I thought that it will easily reach tens of millions, maybe even on the hundreds. However, with the mitigation happening everywhere, I hope the numbers will be much lower, maybe in that region.
Of course, I said for this season. When the constraints get relaxed, the numbers will increase again. I hope countries are seriously thinking and having plans on what to do once we are on the other part of the curve, and how to prevent it happening again without having catastrophic economical consequences (until we all get vaccinated).
We really need a vaccine and/or an effective anti-viral ASAP
A redistribution of wealth is a good thing in this circumstance.
The Tories have been very liberal socialist in the last few weeks. Good on them.
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https://www.theguardian.com/society...ry-after-telling-the-very-ill-not-to-call-999
Using the state to save British capitalism after a decade of austerity is a funny way of saying socialism. Also I think it's pretty clear why they are having a go at footballers and not their party donors.
We will not abandon you - the last line. If it wasn't sad, it would be lol-worthy.
At the same time, it is the correct decision. Obviously, if the governments didn't suck, they would have invested much more in medicine and disease prevention and then everybody would have the needed care. But if there is one ventilator, with one person having 10% chance of surviving, and the other having 70% chance, it makes sense to give it to the second person.
I hope that those who can depend on the other members of the family stay at home all the time, get isolated and get groceries from their family, then don't touch the food for a week. It is extremely dangerous to be old, unfortunately.
Tottenham, Newcastle et al are in the news a lot recently for furloughing their non-playing staff. That's why football clubs and their playing staff have been brought up.
I don't care about the party as much as I care about the policies being enacted (or in this case, talked about in a news conference).
Here in vancouver people don't take it seriously enough IMO. There are cars everywhere and mostly no masks in the supermarkets. Im the most careless person in a normal life even too much for most people but now I am getting too paranoid
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I hear you. But a longtime ago, I learned that you can‘t do much about other people actions and behaviour. The only thing you can control is your own actions. Hopefully this also sets examples for others. Stay safe and healthy.
Jeez, I had to edit my message. Yeah, you take care also
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Well then why not criticise the owners instead ? The furloughing of non playing staff wasn't a decision made by the players but one made by owners like Mike Ashley. I've mentioned this already but it's worth saying again, a career in football is one of the few ways working people in Britain can truly see the benefits of real wealth and money. For the fact alone they are hated by the tories, it's nothing but the lowest level of conservative populism.
You might want to think about the recently unemployed such as workers on zero hours contracts or the NHS staff who haven't got enough safety equipment if you care about policy. Considering quite a lot of British people left their living rooms last night to bang pots and clap in the front garden, like pre industrial peasantry trying to ward off evil spirits, I'm not expecting a lot of critical thinking at the moment but you are basically applauding a party who's covered the country in dog shit and broken glass for the past decade for now coming to the conclusion it might be best to start using a mop.
''It must be admitted that the English people are at present doing their utmost to justify the low estimate in which their rulers hold them'' - James Connolly.
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