SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone said:
In Ireland they’ve been as consistent as possible, despite dealing with curveballs that are completely out of their control, such as global shortages of testing reagents and PPE. They’ve also been pretty clear and precise with their advice, based on the best available evidence at the time. Obviously, with hindsight, there were things they could have done differently but they’ve not done a bad job at all, based on the information and expert advice they had at the time.
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Is there even any indications so far that Ireland acted too late with closing pubs, then lockdown etc?
 
0le said:
We've already had the discussion about masks quite a lot. No one disputes that they can be effective, but the issue is compliance (wearing them correctly, taking them off correctly, wearing the correct type etc) and also supply - there is a finite amount of resources. People can barely listen to instructions of staying indoors so can you imagine trying to get the public to wear masks properly. You are right it will have some effect even when worn incorrectly. The main concern however is most people will assume they are wearing them correctly, giving them a false sense of security and thereby possibly changing their behavioural habits. This may lead them to breaking isolation if they think it is okay when for some of those wearing it incorrectly, it is not.

The main focus must be to get these masks to keyworkers i.e. all people working in hospitals and all carers first, which also includes training. Other keyworkers can later be added such as supermarket staff, plumbers, electricians and whatever.

The video also has two glaring mistakes, which makes me question whether the authors know what they are talking about.
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These concerns I would say are far outweighed by the many who do or would wear them properly and combating the spiraling nature of contamination. Also people would learn the more they wear them and you can have more instructions.
 
DVG7 said:
Any positive economists on here?

7months from now, once the mortgage holidays and all the payment deferrals are done with, and banks And lenders start wanting that $ back, what’s the best case scenario for the state of the world then? My understanding is that some lenders are tagging payments on at the end of the term, but some will be asking for their money once the deferral period is up. At that stage, we will have the most people in history unable to pay their bills, what happens in that situation?

Need someone to explain how it won’t be as bad as my logical brain tells me it almost certainly will be.
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The positive is that countries that paid their people during the outbreak will be able to do over more quickly and will have few incidents of civil unrest and fewer deaths resulting from famine.

A country like U.S. sadly may have many additional casualties due to famine and civil unrest seems like an inevitability.

So news is only good for countries that care for their citizenry
 
Pogue Mahone said:
Or, you know, they got the appropriate advice from the experts and acted on it accordingly.

One thing that backseat driver Twitter experts don’t get in all of this is that even the people who know considerably more about all of this than they do don’t always agree on everything. It easy to say the pubs should have closed on exactly this day, and schools on exactly this day and so on but those are huge decisions and getting a consensus from everyone involved won’t be easy. Which is further complicated by the day to day changes to scientific consensus, re the infectiousness and lethality of the virus. It’s why so many countries have so many different approaches, despite all of them being guided by legitimate experts who know infinitely more than paddy277575 on Twitter about how and when to introduce Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions in a pandemic.

I’ve been as critical of the UK and US approach as anyone but that’s because they’ve so obviously contradicted themselves with their dramatic changes in approach, as well as their shambolic mixed messages coming from their leader.

In Ireland they’ve been as consistent as possible, despite dealing with curveballs that are completely out of their control, such as global shortages of testing reagents and PPE. They’ve also been pretty clear and precise with their advice, based on the best available evidence at the time. Obviously, with hindsight, there were things they could have done differently but they’ve not done a bad job at all, based on the information and expert advice they had at the time.
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Have to say I agree with you. I know there is a pretty well managed PR campaign by our govt comms unit (that at times can be pretty cringe) but all that aside I think he have genuinely been following the health professionals advice as best they can. In fairness to FG, they have done well.
 
Organic Potatoes said:
Amazon stopped selling masks to the public. I don’t know how I’d get one if I had to wear one.
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They will cost a lot if you do find someone selling them.

I went into my local pharmacy today to get hand sanitizer. First bottle was 16 euro. Before this crisis the same bottle would have been four euro.

I ended up getting a smaller bottle for seven euro. That was still over priced.
 
Pogue Mahone said:
It would take a spectacularly fecking stupid deity to try and control over-population by creating a disease that was lethal for the elderly but leaves kids more or less untouched. Goes without saying that anyone who would take that theory seriously is just as stupid.
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Nevertheless the world does #replenish# itself in terms of population, by the old dying off and the young breeding, it is part of the natural cycle. If occasionally things gets accelerated by Nature/God , through disease etc. it does have a 'culling effect' and reduces the load so to speak. After the great plague, in Europe in particular, roughly a third of the population perished, leaving the remaining two thirds, with more food to eat, more space to expand into and greater access to natural resources. Lots of lessons were learned, and things progressed for a while, maybe the human race is approaching another such 'pinch-point'. Certainly many in the 'Extinction Rebellion' movement seem to think so.
 
Been indoors for almost two weeks, felt like just having a little walk outside and then I saw that video posted about droplets. Think i'll stay inside.
 
0le said:
We've already had the discussion about masks quite a lot. No one disputes that they can be effective, but the issue is compliance (wearing them correctly, taking them off correctly, wearing the correct type etc) and also supply - there is a finite amount of resources. People can barely listen to instructions of staying indoors so can you imagine trying to get the public to wear masks properly. You are right it will have some effect even when worn incorrectly. The main concern however is most people will assume they are wearing them correctly, giving them a false sense of security and thereby possibly changing their behavioural habits. This may lead them to breaking isolation if they think it is okay when for some of those wearing it incorrectly, it is not.

The main focus must be to get these masks to keyworkers i.e. all people working in hospitals and all carers first, which also includes training. Other keyworkers can later be added such as supermarket staff, plumbers, electricians and whatever.

The video also has two glaring mistakes, which makes me question whether the authors know what they are talking about.
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Watching the daily UK Govt/Medical briefing - as usual, Jonathan Van Tam (medical guy) comes across very well. And he called Peston out t'other day so he gets bonus points for that.

One of the journalists has just asked if there are benefits to wearing a facemask.....

JVT says "a controversial area in 15 years he's been involved"... "on phone today to professor who works with WHO".... "there is no evidence that face masks help"... "The key is social distancing".... "It's frequent in some countries".... "We do not recommend wearing face masks in the UK"

Pretty clear view.
 
Irwin99 said:
Been indoors for almost two weeks, felt like just having a little walk outside and then I saw that video posted about droplets. Think i'll stay inside.
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When outdoors most of the time there is motion in the surrounding air for the droplets to disperse them considerably. The stronger the motion (i.e. if it happens to be quite windy), the greater (and faster) the dispersion. The chance of inhaling a stray droplet in a secluded area is therefore very slim. Don't be fooled by the video. I've already explained above, simulations of these processes aren't great. The experiment was interesting, but it seems it was carried out indoor with little to no surrounding air motion, which is usually unrealistic when going outdoors.

Hugh Jass said:
They will cost a lot if you do find someone selling them.

I went into my local pharmacy today to get hand sanitizer. First bottle was 16 euro. Before this crisis the same bottle would have been four euro.

I ended up getting a smaller bottle for seven euro. That was still over priced.
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You could also use a bar of soap, normally they are a lot cheaper and also, at least for me, last a lot longer.
 
I'm sure I'm reading this wrong, but how has the government ordered 17m antibody tests if they haven't been able to find them and nobody has any?
Hancock: We continue to search for antibody test
Matt Hancock is asked about promises of antibody tests that have yet to emerge - which will show if some has already had the virus.
On Thursday he admitted no working test had been found yet.
Today, Mr Hancock says the government has ordered 17 million, but says he has been "absolutely clear all along we will only use them if they work".
He says no G7 country has found a home antibody test that works yet, "but we continue to search for one".
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redshaw said:
Should disperse easily outside, it's more in shops and homes with other people and other confined spaces.
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Nah, I'm good. I've always wanted to become a recluse but couldn't afford to. Things are different now with all this furlough business.
 
Camy89 said:
Agree.

The natural course of a virus is to survive as long as possible with a preferred route of becoming more infectious but less lethal. SARS was an exception. People seem to think it'll get both more infectious AND lethal, which is counter-intuitive in itself.
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Precisely, a virus does not want to kill the host. It will lose lethality over time. Figures being quoted suggest 10 million Infections worldwide, that puts it at 0.5 cfr.
 
Berbaclass said:
Nah, I'm good. I've always wanted to become a recluse but couldn't afford to. Things are different now with all this furlough business.
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United fans have been forced into doing this for the last few years already :D
 
sullydnl said:
I can't tell you what the science is, that's my point, I'm not remotely qualified to argue it.

What I can say is that from various bits and pieces I've read it appears different measures have different impacts at different times, different measures react to other measures and different measures have their own negative secondary effects which have to be countered. Which means that in order to judge the best time to implement a given measure (neither too early nor too late to be its most effective) you have to judge it in relation to more factors than I could conveniently list. So when you ask "why not a week earlier", that's why. Or maybe it isn't. Neither of us are qualified to say or second guess, really. I'm not even in a position to judge how accurate those bits and pieces I read actually are. And even people who are qualified may well have differing opinions as that tends to be how science and medicine works.

What we can do though is compare it to the consensus approach of other countries and the recommendations of expert bodies like the WHO, which Ireland has been largely in line with throughout. Beyond that... *shrugs*

As for the north, there may well have been political mistakes in the government's approach. It's not exactly an easy political situation even at the best of times though and if we're looking to point fingers at someone for the divergence in response across the island, most would probably point to the UK government's initial decision to go in a rather atypical direction. The ROI government didn't create the back door that is NI, nor are they the primary government responsible for dictating the direction NI takes.

It's also worth pointing out that every single government will make mistakes, mistakes which will cost lives. They're all hopelessly overmatched and unprepared and trying their best in those circumstances. I don't think our mistakes thus far are particularly out of order or unreasonable relative to what's going on in the rest of the world.
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It comes down being able to lead, be honest, and get the citizenry to get in line with directives.

Since I’m not from the UK I can’t speak intelligently. My sense that the UK has been a bit of shambles but its failings pale in comparison to the US where I am from.

The fact that up until a week ago the governor of the state of Georgia didn’t know that the virus could be spread by asymptomatic carriers is beyond shocking. When you compile this with the concept that Florida is still allowing religious groupings as essential goes to show that there is no centralized leadership in the US.

Regarding the death portion of things. The problem with this disease isn’t going to be the disease itself, but it’s ability to cripple a lack of planning.

While this thing is nasty as hell. The bigger problems emerging in the US are the potential deaths due to a lack of medical personnel, medical supplies, beds along with the secondary issues of lack of food, shelter, water.

This doesn’t even delve into the issues of civil unrest once 1/2 the country is out of money or god forbid a second wave this upcoming winter.

This isn’t a case of fear mongering but rather being alert to the catastrophic issues that create even more death and destruction if measures aren’t taken immediately.

This still doesn’t even address the additional Issues that could arise from a hurricane or a major earthquake.

This is why having proper leadership makes a difference because they grasp the terrifying concept that any additional problems could be devastating because the normal protections are gone.
 
BeforeKeanetherewasRobson said:
Watching the daily UK Govt/Medical briefing - as usual, Jonathan Van Tam (medical guy) comes across very well. And he called Peston out t'other day so he gets bonus points for that.

One of the journalists has just asked if there are benefits to wearing a facemask.....

JVT says "a controversial area in 15 years he's been involved"... "on phone today to professor who works with WHO".... "there is no evidence that face masks help"... "The key is social distancing".... "It's frequent in some countries".... "We do not recommend wearing face masks in the UK"

Pretty clear view.
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The appropriate face masks prevents inhalation of droplets. Apart from the dispersion aspects which I discussed above, the uncertainty from the biological point of view seems to be as best I can understand it (I have no knowledge of the biology and I am just reading the news) is that the scientists are not sure if a) you can become infected from inhaling the droplets and b) if (a) is true, how significant is it. The stance by JVT seems quite reasonable, at least in terms of the science.

But by saying "we don't recommend it" does risk alienating people because the alternative argument is that if there is a chance you become infected via inhalation of droplets containing the virus, then why not just give the masks anyway and not take the risk. This is not a view I personally hold entirely - I think we should be giving masks to the doctors/nurses/carers only, but others have a different view which is fair enough.
 
FrankDrebin said:
Thankfully I haven't come across any disturbance or abuse thrown at security guards regarding my shopping experiences during this lockdown but the ones out there that do are absolute selfish,ignorant cnut bags.
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I’ve just returned from a trip to Purley Tesco’s and it was one of the best shopping experiences I’ve ever had there!
Security at entrance limiting numbers inside the store which are way lower than usual. Everyone being respectful of the 2m distance and some esprit de corps with the chat with people.
Usually that store is chock full of cnuts and it’s horrible shopping in there. I presume they are still there but behaving themselves?
The security guard at the door was about 6ft10 and 20 stone at a guess so that may have dissuaded anyone from teeing one up
 
WHO thinks covid19 takes 2-14 days to show symptoms (median 5 days ). It's been 10 days since covid19 UK shut down on March 24th.

Is it correct to assume those dying now are largely from pre lock down period. So I guess we can expect daily numbers dead (RIP) to keep same or rising for a week longer, ie before we ‘flatten or lower the curve’.

Two thoughts:

1) What if number keeps rising this time next week?

2) Could Government have enforced total shut down a week earlier? Boris acted fast once Imperial report was published, but surely evidence from China, Italy, Iran would have justified them to act 'on a hunch'?

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
 
jojojo said:
Hmmm, well yes, knobheads will be knobheads, but keep in mind some at least of the ones shouting at the supermarket staff may not be in great shape themselves. There are quite a few people around with "hidden" disabilities - ranging from the minor (that mean they can cope with routine, but not with the lack of it) to the major (that mean they often rely on others to help them maintain that routine, or to manage essential medication or addiction).

A lot of support systems, (particularly informal ones and voluntary services but also GP/public health driven things) are out of action, or not operating in the normal way. Care in the community can be a beautiful thing when it works, but it's also very fragile.
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That's a very good point- loads of people must be struggling without their support groups. I guess we all need to be more tolerant.
I saw some of the addiction support groups have moved online, but there seems to be a lot of concerns over the sanctity of group meetings held over Zoom.
 
@Henrik Larsson and @Suedesi - here's some more detailed info from the American Hospital Association that breakds down what our "intensive care beds" are...

Total Staffed Beds in All U.S. Hospitals
924,107​
Staffed Beds in Community 1 Hospitals
792,417​
Intensive Care Beds 3 in Community Hospitals
​
Medical-Surgical Intensive Care 4 Beds in Community Hospitals
55,663​
Cardiac Intensive Care 5 Beds in Community Hospitals
15,160​
Neonatal Intensive Care 6 Beds in Community Hospitals
22,721​
Pediatric Intensive Care 7 Beds in Community Hospitals
5,115​
Burn Care 8 Beds in Community Hospitals
1,198​
Other Intensive Care 9 Beds in Community Hospitals
7,419​

edit - source: https://www.aha.org/statistics/fast-facts-us-hospitals
 
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0le said:
Genuine question but how did Zoom become so popular. I had never heard of even only two weeks ago???
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Yep same! Share price doubled in two months, but has come back a bit on the security concerns.
 
0le said:
The appropriate face masks prevents inhalation of droplets. Apart from the dispersion aspects which I discussed above, the uncertainty from the biological point of view seems to be as best I can understand it (I have no knowledge of the biology and I am just reading the news) is that the scientists are not sure if a) you can become infected from inhaling the droplets and b) if (a) is true, how significant is it. The stance by JVT seems quite reasonable, at least in terms of the science.

But by saying "we don't recommend it" does risk alienating people because the alternative argument is that if there is a chance you become infected via inhalation of droplets containing the virus, then why not just give the masks anyway and not take the risk. This is not a view I personally hold entirely - I think we should be giving masks to the doctors/nurses/carers only, but others have a different view which is fair enough.
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I've got no idea, just thought interesting (sic) as question asked as I saw topic on here.

JVT is very calm, precise but that's not a guarantee. Personally, anything that can help NHS staff is good by me... my sister's a Sister (honestly :) ) so would like to minimise her chances of catching if possible.
 
fergieisold said:
They definitely work to contain the virus when you are infected. The evidence they provide protection from the virus for someone who isn't infected is limited.
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The more people wear masks the less chance of the virus spreading.
 
Cal? said:
As I've been saying all along, face masks work, and finally the WHO is coming round to the most obvious fact.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/...-mask-use-general-public-coronavirus/12118042
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My wife is wearing a n95, goggles, a hair cover, gloves, a gown, and a plastic fasemask... and she's been trained on how to put them on and take them off to avoid contamination.

Average people wearing just a facemask thinking that will prevent them from catching this virus are fooling themselves. It's about like all the people wearing gloves and then touching things and then touching their faces with the gloves on... or touching things with the gloves on then later touching those same things with the gloves off.
 
Revan said:
Prices are a bit absurd. For N95, a box of 10 masks costs $75. Considering that they are meant to be used only once, it is really very expensive.

I have no idea how much protection cheaper alternatives provide: https://ebay.to/2UCPYs6
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I wouldn't bother with the N95s since they are almost all going to get taken down at some point due to the healthcare need. I got 20 regular hospital style masks for 29.99 a couple of days ago. Should last me a couple of months since I don't go out much.
 
Sparky Rhiwabon said:
So this may well mean that the UK is doing much better than we thought.
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At the moment the UK only counts and knows about people that are hospitalized, it's the same story than Italy or France(until this week).
 
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