Odds on to stay the same for the next block of 3 weeks.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
When it does happen you can bet your tail feathers that the Government will say "please still refrain from mass gatherings" but every beach and park will be mobbed before breakfast time.
How bad do you think the second wave will be? I'm petty certain that there is going to be one, but will it be remotely as bad as it is now?
Not as bad because I'll be down the beaches and parks scaring folk off with my army of pangolins.
It depends on the testing and other issues that we are currently struggling with getting sorted in time. There is the possibility that the second wave could be much worse than the first simply because it's due in winter when the NHS is already stretched to the maximum so the additional strain due to another peak would potentially have a much bigger and therefore worse impact.
My guess is that they’ll start to ease around the start of May but that’ll be school and more essential businesses opening whilst social distancing remains. I’d guess June before we get back to something approaching normalcy and then another shit storm come autumn.
This is likely to continue till June/July at the earliest in my opinion.
Sell you more nudes
I dunno...it'd look a bit ridiculous if the lockdown was eased while the PM is in intensive care.
That's an elaborate coming out. Well done sir.
Well give me your plan for how to make China do what we want and I'll see how I feel about it.
I doubt schools will open in all honesty. Parents will likely avoid sending their children to school whilst there is still the chance that they could get the virus. Thats just my opinion though, before the schools closed, i know of a lot of friends who's children refused to go anyway because they didn't feel safe
This is my opinion on the lockdown as well. It’s allowing the NHS to cope with current patients numbers and getting production of the testing kits sufficient enough to test nations rather than a few thousand people. I highly doubt a cure will be found, and even if they do it would be surprising if they found one in less than 2 years.
Once there is sufficient testing kits anyone who’s had the virus should in theory be able to carry on as normal, and slowly things can go back to normal.
Look at Mr Pangolin with his army of pigeons...or something.
Thoughts and prayers to his wife, children and boyfriend.
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Are we allowed schadenfreude for this one?
I reckon another 3 weeks with same restrictions Steve . It seems im one of the unlucky ones who can work , but all our trade suppliers are closed so we cant get paint and materials. Also unlucky in the respect we are not entitled to government help in the way of grants or 80 % wage etc . Should be able to get by for a few months if needed , my concern is how long it takes for the economy to kick start afterwards.
I think the lockdown will be lifted for the VE day bank holiday. So 8 May 2020.
But we'll be asked to continue social distancing.
But we'll be asked to continue social distancing.
Let me give you a counter argument where we should be thanking China. For a Virus to threaten our entire species it would have to become endemic (everyone carrying it) and then mutate some lethal symptoms in a rapid progression that medical communities can't counter in time.
If a virus gets out and starts making people ill / developing a range of symptoms early then there is more chance it can be detected early, people can take precautions to avoid infection and the virus will eventually run out of steam and either be starved of new infections or inadvertently kill all it's hosts before it can infect everyone.
So you could say that by creating a "Hot house" environment China has exposed the corona virus early in it's evolution and brought it to the world's attention, saving us from a potential extinction level event by creating a horrible pandemic early on in the diseases progression.
It's a natural human response to seek blame, particularly when you hear some of the awful stories now coming out, but ultimately it will not help us to prepare for the next one.
We could not have known for sure it was a respiratory based illness, so I've no problem with a shortage of specialist disease specific equipment like ventilators in this case - that is just the luck of the draw. However, whatever the nature of the next pandemic we face, we can be absolutely sure that we need to have massive stockpiles of high level PPE available to protect Medical and Care staff from infected patients, whatever the nature of the infection, whether airborne, waterborne or through blood / fluid transfer.
To simplify, you are suggesting that we thank China for the opportunity of so much sorrow and hardship?
I didn’t expect they would be ao careless in the beginning, I mean its Japan...
Probably they have left it too late. I hope they don’t have to pay for it.
Nah, that's mostly the press and Facebook and the like seeking failures out. My town centre is deserted and the park quieter than normal. Police doing a good job of course. Can't speak for London if that's what you mean though.
Figures just released by NHS. 758 deaths in England which includes delayed reporting from the weekend.
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854 dead in UK today.
Oooof. There's a huge jump some expected after the lull of Sun/Monday (in comparative terms).
Looks like we're entering the mire. 854 is Spain/Italy peak numbers almost. I can see this continuing for a good few days.
Looks like we're entering the mire. 854 is Spain/Italy peak numbers almost. I can see this continuing for a good few days.
No absolutely not - I'm just trying to ward against this idea of seeking reparations against China that some are floating. There are aspects of any culture that might make it more likely to develop a particular type of infection. We shouldn't try and blame that culture, just try and prepare as best we can and learn from it.
It includes some deaths from the weekend.
Did yesterdays 400ish include any from the weekend? How does it work?
Is this why Tuesdays are considered to the big spike day of the week?
I knew I must have misinterpreted something. I can't help feeling myself that we are constantly held hostage to new viruses coming out of China, responsible for deaths and horrendous debts, businesses failing, people out of work etc. So needless in some sense however there has been deceit involved, cover-up etc that to my mind needs reparations.
Why are people so obsessed with ending the lockdown? Do you honestly feel safe when you’re out and about? This won’t change within a month and everything will magically be back to how it was. The virus will still be out there in a months time.
Yeah - life will not properly get back to normal once we have a working vaccine which realistically could be sometime next year as depressing a thought that is. Things may be relaxed to a degree for a few months over the summer but I still wouldnt feel confident to go out unless I was sure I'd already had the virus (I'd much rather not get it though).
This is better data from which to derive England's death curve: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
It's not as current as worldometer and is specific to England, but it does distribute the deaths according to when they occurred rather than when they were reported.
The distribution of today's deaths can be downloaded from the above site in xls format.
Cliff notes: Only 81 of today's announced deaths occurred yesterday, 451 were from over the weekend, 191 from the previous working week and 35 from before that.
It's not as current as worldometer and is specific to England, but it does distribute the deaths according to when they occurred rather than when they were reported.
The distribution of today's deaths can be downloaded from the above site in xls format.
Cliff notes: Only 81 of today's announced deaths occurred yesterday, 451 were from over the weekend, 191 from the previous working week and 35 from before that.
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Do we an estimation of the percentage of people carrying the virus without any symptoms ?
Japan and Sweeden were both being lauded just a few days ago for their success. And yet both now change strategy and are now deeper in crisis.
covid19 is a clever, duplicitous and deceitful bugger and evolving its character and ability as it matures. Who knows how much more sophisticated it will become to evade human defence systems.
Nobody knows - that will only be known once we get a working antibody test.
Yes that's right. From what I understand there was a group of people with most notably Bill Gates who've been warning for pandemics for a couple of years as the biggest realistic threat to our societies. They saw the potential danger but weren't sure whether it would be a natural virus like in this instance, or some lunatics using bioterrorism. If we learn our lessons now we can perhaps raise our awareness and prevent being as vulnerable to that in the future.
This category of people scare the shit out of me
There's always lower reporting of deaths on those periods of Sunday & Monday.
Cool. Very similar to rules in Ireland. Encouraging. That #savethesummer hashtag is clever. I’d like us to do something similar.
Its due to the delay in the reporting of deaths from the weekend. Tuesday is when NHS gets the full set of data from every hospital and that includes all the patients who died over the weekend.