Eh? Have Sweden changed strategy @sammsky1 ?
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Today's reported number of deaths at 854 is obviously terrible.
But if you were to spread the numbers to cover the underreporting on Sunday and Monday, it doesn't look as bad. Here's a graph of running 3 day totals.
I think a graph like this is a more accurate way of looking at things.
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Unfortunately, I’d say that timeframe is more optimistic than realistic. I don’t think people realise how much work goes into developing a vaccine. 8 to 10 years is the usual timeframe. And that’s without getting into the manufacturing/distribution head-feck of trying to roll it out all across the world in a hurry.
Same over here, data today shows biggest death day but it was approx 40 /day since Saturday on actual daily figures.
Cuomo's basement reports have been pretty insightful
In the UK? Certainly not getting eased, might get tightened, i.e. shutting parks down.
Thanks. Anything similar for hospital admissions ?
Today's reported number of deaths at 854 is obviously terrible.
But if you were to spread the numbers to cover the underreporting on Sunday and Monday, it doesn't look as bad. Here's a graph of running 3 day totals.
I think a graph like this is a more accurate way of looking at things.
He is, fortunately, in position of no power whatsoever. Just part of parliament but without major voting power in his party. The lunatics who run the country now are not much better but at least they are not as detached from reality.
And indeed, lockdown in Netherlands is actually very similar.
Singapore's basis of its current Covid-19 strategy is based on lessons learnt from SARs. First thing is the protection of its healthcare workers (43% of the SARS victims were frontline workers) -- so they stockpiled PPEs ventilators for the past decase.
YOu can read their pandemic playbook: https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librari...erim-pandemic-plan-public-ver-_april-2014.pdf
I never heard of social distancing until a month ago -- but it appeared in that document that was written in 2014.
Do you not count as either employed or self employed? Or do you have a company and take dividends? I think once the lockdown restrictions start to ease in mid/late May, there'll be a boom in demand for things like builders work as it'll have been pent up over the current couple of months. Things like travel will probably see a slower return to normal though
Do you have any idea why Sars covid1 didn't spread more? Wikipedia shows that it has a basic reproduction number of 2 to 4, similar to Covid-19, but it only seems to have affected about 10k people. Though the death rate was higher at 10%.
Here's a graph of deaths per day in England once they've been distributed according to the date of death rather than date of reporting (the last 5 days will likely see significant revision):
That 271 from last Tuesday seems massively out of place.
That 271 from last Tuesday seems massively out of place.
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If Jesus comes out of isolation I'll be on the phone to the old bill
Sorry, I don't know where to get that data.
You're surprised that people have a different set of priorities to you?
Why old bill? Shouldn't you report it to the FA or to Man City?If Jesus comes out of isolation I'll be on the phone to the old bill
that’s a plague.inc type thing. If the virus was being carried by everyone then suddenly mutated to become far more deadly, it wouldn’t simultaneously mutate in everyone. It doesn’t have the ability to telepathically get every other virus in different people to simultaneously mutate.
Because to cut a long story short we will become a third world country if we don't.
I fully expect (and want) it to be extended next week but after that things need to be brought back slowly.
Thanks anyway. I was thinking a fall in admissions should precede a fall in deaths, but I'm just being impatient, and probably wrong again.
This. The idea that the world is going to be essentially in lockdown for a year or something is absolute lunacy. Governments will have an indicator of the longest possible time we can go through lockdown before the economy and people's actual livelihood, well-being, sanity and ability to survive life in general become under severe threat. Once we reach that maximum time-frame, there will no be longer lockdowns. The hope will be that the peak has been hit by then and while measures will still be in place, life will have to be allowed to slowly get back to normal.
Nobody is saying the virus is going away - but life isn't going away, either. There has to be, and will be, a compromise. It will mean people still die - but that is inevitable unfortunately. Once governments feel that they have reached a point where they can minimise deaths as much as possible, and relieve pressure as much as possible on health services, normality will slowly but surely resume.
Sweden drafts new legislation to allow 'extraordinary steps' to combat Covid-19
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...legislation-allow-extraordinary-steps-combat/
I think you're making the mistake of just assuming life will go back to the way it was. It won't. This will potentially change everything as we know it. Well overdue as well. The whole concept of life and economies etc has been brought into major question here and I think there could be some huge changes going forward.
Like..?
Bringing your sick children to their grandparents and going into work with a cold are two things I can't see returning.
People wearing face masks when sick might become a thing too. Shaking hands might disappear for a good while.
The reason people bring the economy Into things it's because it affects life. People don't factor the economy Into the equation because they want to jet off to Sydney or but a new house in Kensington, they do it because it's vital in saving lives not just in the immediate but long term aswell.
Let's say we do actually go into lockdown until there's a vaccine/cure/it fizzles out what next?
We re open up the world and 60% of businesses are gone (and that's a Ty level optimistic prediction, it will probably be worse) so who will pay the taxes to keep the NHS going (and save lives)? Who will pay the taxes to feed the majority (yes majority) of families who can't find work fed?
Will it go back to the completely normal like it was before ? Almost certainly not (not for a while anyway) but long term lockdown will lead to many many more problems. The awful poverty we see in Africa could well then up on our door.
I really don't envy the guy tasked with working out the happy medium but it absolutely has to happen, I'd go as far as saying it's probably the most crucial aspect of this whole crisis.
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Much less emphasis on the ‘rat race’ and it’s shown the huge flaws in the way wealth is distributed and how unfair the whole game of life is. It’s shown people what’s truly important and that is life.
Yeah, but that’s not changing strategy. That’s just streamlining the decision process mate.
It’s been in the pipeline for a couple of weeks that, so that "if" the pandemic was to start looking very worrying, they could extremely quickly make some big decisions without parliament approval.
Strategy is still exactly the same, confirmed by PM in his press conference this avo even after that was put forward.
That said, there's plenty of us in Sweden not 100% happy about the proposal as it'll give the government power that should really be in the hands of the myndighet (Health Authority). "Popular" propositions might be put forward over scientific ones. We're hoping it'll still only be used as a worst case scenario.
As it looks here now, the number of positive cases have dropped for quite a few consecutive days (maybe 5 days if today follows the trend), new ICU patients per day has been between 30-40 per day since 23rd March, and deaths per day which obviously is a view of the pandemic 2-3 weeks ago has been:
April 1: 40
April 2: 55
April 3: 49
April 4: 40
April 5: 49
April 6: 37
So steady enough there also.
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Good description of the situation in India and will be in most 2nd and 3rd world countries and probably some first world ones as well...
A new kind of health consciousness, which will result in people taking personal cleanliness more seriously, applying principles of social distancing more regularly, and a desire for more health spending with a particular focus on prevention.
A new conception of necessary travel, particularly in terms of many more business trips by air being replaced by online communication, many more office workers working from home frequently, and a general decline in leisure air travel due to it now being a significant contributor to pandemic risk on top of the environmental harm.
A move away from the "face-to-face economy" to online solutions more generally.
A move towards more authoritarian, nationalistic policies in response to the national supply shortages and relative lack of successful international co-operation and increased need for safety, with compromises accepted to deliver that.
They're all plausible to some degree. Some could go in completely the opposite direction. Major events generally do leave a psychological impression (many would say scar) on society that do fundamentally alter regular life. We're often not very good at predicting them though.
Breathing exercise should you get into difficulty and could help you maintain your lungs before you get bad.
Also should mention not to do the exercises and cough around others who could become infected. Do this on your own.
Also should mention not to do the exercises and cough around others who could become infected. Do this on your own.
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Breathing exercise should you get into difficulty.
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Think it can help before you get bad helping the lungs stay functioning and not getting logged up and also that old guy from the cruise very early on in the outbreak managed to avoid going on a ventilator in Japan by doing breathing exercises he knew.
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Think it can help before you get bad helping the lungs stay functioning and not getting logged up and also that old guy from the cruise very early on in the outbreak managed to avoid going on a ventilator in Japan by doing breathing exercises he knew.
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Much of this I’d go with. I would also add no large gatherings of folk until such time as there is a vaccine. Can you imagine 75,000 at OT or 25k plus at the O2 arena in the current climate. In addition I certainly think go where you want and when you want will be an absolute no no for many a month and what’s the betting when restrictions are relaxed that travel to and from China in the foreseeable future will result in automatic quarantine. It’s strange that we had 3 years of what economic damage Brexit would do whereas the cost to the nation of Covid 19 will IMHO dwarf for generations any damage that leaving the EU will.
Coronavirus ‘could kill 2 million in Bangladesh’, warns leaked UN memoGood description of the situation in India and will be in most 2nd and 3rd world countries and probably some first world ones as well...
https://www.channel4.com/news/coronavirus-could-kill-2-million-in-bangladesh-warns-leaked-un-memo?
That'll all depend on the antibody tests being developed. If we can test a large portion of the population and find out a huge portion has been infected, then we could go back to "normal" quicker than otherwise.
Without that, it's a long long road.
Excludes data from Manchester, Leeds and NI. True total must be 800+.
I'm surprised and terrified that people are so willing to give up their essential freedoms because they're a little scared. If someone would have asked me in January how deadly a pandemic would have to be for people to be as willing as they currently collectively are to give up their freedoms I'd have said at least 10x more deadly overall and around 50x more deadly for those under 60.
As someone concerned about the progressive erosion of civil liberties (which is always under the guise of keeping the populace safety) the enthusiasm with which we're gifted our basic rights to government for a bit of purported safety is far more concerning that the virus itself. I've no doubt future governments will look at how quickly we were willing to sacrifice these freedoms and use it as a blueprint.
Literally in this thread less than 48 hours ago a video was posted of someone alone on a park bench in a communal space with no-one within 50 metres of them with close to zero chance for infecting anyone else. Several police officers who were not themselves following the guidelines they were enforcing arrested them without being able to quote the legislation for which they were relying. If that in and of itself wasn't frightening enough, rather than protests regarding a clear abuse of police powers, we have people criticising that the person even had the right to sit on the bench in the first place. We've joyfully sleepwalked into 1984.
Surely you realised a long time ago that as a libertarian your views on these things were completely out of sync with the majority of the population?
Only the people tested data. The deaths are all those reported today.