Hello, good to meet you. I agree with you.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
And as I said, those jobs can be done with some relaxation of constraints. Restaurants can open, as can bars. Pubs, probably will have to suffer.
Factories will open IMO within a month or two. They would probably need some reorganization to allow more space for people, but they have to open.
Sports and concerts on the other hand, no way. Too much risk for some entertainment. Not many people lose the jobs (yes, some do, but that is inevitable).
I think that this is an equivalent of a World War. People will suffer, some really hard, some will die, the economy will suffer and there will be bad consequences directly related from that. But the alternative is tens of millions of deaths (just read University College study), and that is even worse, much worse.
I do not see how we can go back to life as usual without a vaccine. We saw that one case resulted in tens of thousands of cases within 2 months. Even after this stage of mitigation, there are going to be thousands of infected people in most countries. Go back to life as usual, and within 2-3 weeks we are back at the same position we are now. Which brings the question, why do this lockdown in the first place, if it just postpones stuff for a month? I believe that a situation like in Korea, where many things are banned and reduced, the economy gets a hit, but still the society and economy is functional is the best we can hope for before we get the vaccine. And even for that, we have to fight hard.
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That's what people said during the economical crisis after world war one in Austria. The Austrian cancellor of the time was given the right to rule via regulations. People thought it would only be temporarily. It was the start of the Austrian fascism under Dollfuß.
Not comparing this whole situation with the time back then. At all. Measures taken are necessary. But not caring about your basic rights surely isn't the right thing to do now. We need to be very careful with what our governments are doing and how they are doing it. Just look at Hungary. fecking Orban used Corona to pretty much shut off the parliament.
No they don't. The vast majority of people, do not need to get infected. You can manage the spread within the community by effectively testing, tracing & isolating.
Schools, universities & other places can also manage by systematically testing and identifying outbreaks in places like those. You can reduce their likelihood by changing timetables, shift patterns & still keep society functioning. Even pubs etc can open as long as you limit the crowds inside of them.
This whole thing about having 36m people infected over 18 months (i.e. 60%) relies on a dreadful assumption that you will manage to split it evenly over 18 months. That's the only way we can manage the load on the healthcare system & that doesn't work.
France now report deaths outside hospitals since April 2nd. Some are backdated but wasn't expecting to see more huge numbers continue like today. Worldmeters just adds them all up but note other countries haven't released them yet.
Hospital
78167 cases +3777
30027 hospitalized +305
7131 intensive care +59
7091 dead +607
Care homes
30902 cases +7282
3237 dead +820
Perhaps other countries will be similar but a UK report suggests maybe care home deaths are 7% of the hospital total as most are said to arrive in hospital anyway but France's care homes deaths are about 45% of the hospital deaths.
Italy is thought to be quite high outside hospitals but there's a huge backlog, they're not withholding or under reporting.
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It’s a huge challenge and honestly I don’t see how we get out of this. We will, I’m sure, but I just cannot fathom how and when. Western Europe have resources to deal with this through tracing, distancing, improving healthcare and try to soften economic blow through supporting people and businesses. I don’t have nearly as much hope for my country as our government will be focused on keeping their offices and buying votes for elections, they won’t support businesses as that will go against their agenda and we don’t really have resources to deal with the whole situation because they’ve given it all away six months ago when they were buying votes for parliament elections.
Your point is about Government incompetence, is it? Thank goodness for wise and prudent administration?
We should be using this time to talk about how awful Dominic Raab is in case he gets sick and we're no longer allowed to.
Not convinced screening would have even been that effective, Milan Malpensa did screenings from early February and it turned out to be about as much use as a chocolate fireguard.
Even that assumes that UK will be able to handle 2 million infected people at the same time. They can't.
We saw Italy's system collapsing with less than 100k infected people. We are seeing what is happening in New York with less than 100k infected people. It is hard to see a country the size of UK being able to deal with 2m infected people at all time, for 18 months. Heck, doctors and nurses will be already dead if they will have to work in a very infected environment, in double shifts for 18 months. It was always, a totally nonsense plan that had no basis in reality.
And as you said, fof that to happen, you need a uniform distribution. Which would be pretty much impossible to achieve. What is going to be instead is something that looks like a Gaussian, when 10m+ people will get infected in the same time, and hundreds of thousands if not more are gonna die within a few weeks.
Which begs the question, if countries have to do that after the lockdown, why bother with a lockdown in the first place? We actually saw University College's study that showed that a lockdown followed by going back to life as normal has the same number of infections and fatalities as no lockdown at all. Which is why the removal of constraints is going to be gradual, and life as usual will continue only in 2022 if we are lucky to have a highly effective vaccine. Until then, hopefully a South Korea scenario, which while is not ideal, it is pretty acceptable.
Thank you. I've been on this forum the whole time since I quit posting since then. I must say u guys are awesome I dont go anywhere else for facts as it's all posted here and fact checked, by doctors and various experts and crazy guys who are so committed. My gf reads just Facebook.
I look at China etc and am jealous of their handling as a super power, they test, trace and send u a message on an app. I think we should be doing similar to that, some things are more important than a bit of temporary civil privacy.
I didn’t expect France would have such high numbers when was I think the first nation to close schools and other places....maybe I’m wrong
Nice to hear from you.
See you again in 2030?
(And I'm not that bothered about breaches of my civil liberties. Some people are desperate to politicise anything, including the impact of a pandemic.
When I'm subject to a mind experiment a la Clockwork Orange, I'll be bothered. When I'm asked to stay at home for 1, 3 or 6 months to save my life and collectively save thousands of other lives (or more), I've got no issue with it.)
Fair point. We could have forced them to self-isolate, though.
Crazy that anyone from the UK actually believes that people and businesses would have understood the impact themselves without it being enforced by the government. Almost like the two weeks before that never happened
Taken what I said out of context. Which can happen if you only quote part of a post.
Earlier in that post I made it clear strict measures will need to be put and kept in place for those at higher risk to this. But there is clearly (people on here for some reason seem to not want to acknowledge this) a large portion of society that this will not effect or effect very little. These are the people I’m saying will need to get out there. And they’re going to have to stay away from the risk groups at all costs.
It’d be a difficult process to implement but I don’t see an alternative and it’s being done now anyway.
The data is there, the information is there and it would be weird and feel slightly big brotherish but I don’t see an alternative. Well I do but they’re not realistic nor sustainable.
@Revan
Yes exactly. The lockdown gives us a chance to go back to square 1 and any competent govt now will be working on increasing their testing capacity & planning for life after lock down. Life isn't going back to normal anytime soon, but its obvious having people locked in for months on end will cause society to collapse anyway. So we need a compromise & the SK model is the best one on the table.
Thank you
I laughed at that one. U could be right I keep reading, say a random thread and think one opinion and its not long till someone says the same thing so i dont bother. This thread though is a bit more important to me than say if I think ole is good enough or whatever.
I think this forum has never been so valuable as it is right now.
If the government articulated a non-authoritarian approach and spoke candidly about death rates under various social responses, along with a pleading for extreme social distancing, hugely reduced social gatherings etc and the amount of peoples lives that this approach would save... I don't agree that people would merely carry on regardless. The "bad flu" rhetoric was back when Boris was also shaking hands with everyone he met, several days before the lockdown this nonsense was already purged from all but the most idiotic of minds. Obviously a small minority would, but these are the same minorities that will be flouting the current rules just in a more surreptitious manner. At least if they're out in the open we can model on the reality than x% won't follow the guidelines (whether enforced or strongly requested).
This is before even talking about the deaths caused by the authoritarian measures. How many children remain in at risk households because their court hearings have been delayed? How many criminals will offend again because their hearings have been pushed back? How many spouses are at risk due to spousal abuse in confined spaces? How many years of lives will be cut short by the poverty such a lockdown will cause? How many elderly people will waste the last several weeks of their lives not seeing loved ones?
There are so many unknown factors (for any person or body to analyse right now) so for people to merely accept the implementation of authoritarian measures simply because government is doing what governments always do and use a scary situation as a power grab terrifies me. We've seen it too many times before. Using people's immigration fears to implement inhumane measures for the greater good. Using people's fears of terrorism to hold people in a cell for longer than should be deemed equitable. Using people's fears of crime to aggressively increase surveillance.
Don't get me wrong I don't have all the answers and am aware the government don't either. Likewise I'm not a conspiracy theorist who thinks the government were rubbing their hands with glee at the prospect of implementing the measures to increase their powers; I just think it's very rare for a government to relinquish powers once they have them. I'm also aware that government are politically motivated so if given the choice of 100000 years of life being taken from a terrifying invisible illness that can be directly compared to our European neighbours next year and 150000 years over a 60 year period that can't be so simply compared /calculated or held accountable they'd inevitably opt for the latter.
Overall I think there's far too many motivating factors that would (and does) attract government to strict measures over less authoritarian ones, even if they could be equally as effective. I think the quick change of UK tact a couple of weeks ago suggests this.
What proportion of businesses did voluntarily close after a decent compensatory scheme was introduced?
Don’t believe what comes from China, independent news reported the arrival of 5000 urns just for one funeral home -they have 8 on that city, the numbers of infected and dead people must be huge. They lied to the world, they didn’t stop the spreading of the virus to other countries and WHO leaders must get a supplement check from china, the same ones who said US banning planes coming from China was wrong.
yes im bored to death and my wife gave me a list of things to do around the house I kept postponing for years ...damn I really hate the chinese government and WHO
But people live with each other. They have parents, at times in the same home.
Also, people in their fifties who might be considered low-risk category could overwhelm the system on their own, if all of them get the disease. The risk is less for those under 40, but if most/all of the gets sick, it is gonna be bad, a total collapse.
There is no way to both achieve herd immunity and to keep the number of deaths small. No way. Which is why I said that Boris' plan was nuts back then, backed by experts or not. And the plan changed two days later, because you know, it was nuts.
I think we can have both a functional society and economy, and limit the number of deaths. This is not a thought experiment, South Korea has already demonstrated that you can do so, without even having a lockdown, without closing the factories, without even closing restaurants. So yes, I am in favor for a gradual relaxation of constraints when the number of infections get low (hopefully by the end of the month). But relaxing some constraints to have a working economy does not mean going back to before, and having thousands of people in sporting events, or concerts, or having hundreds of people in pubs are steps too far. Do that, and you will be forced to do another lockdown just 2 weeks later.
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The moment I heard that China decided to shut movie theaters again just a few days after they declared the victory and claiming that all new infections are imports, it removed any doubt I had that China was lying all alone. Sure, they had a good action against the virus since January, but they also minimised the numbers in order to show the superiority of their system (especially with big Western countries except Germany failing to do anything right).
WHO should either be disbanded or totally changed. If I was in charge of the US, I wouldn't give them a single penny before their general director gets fired (not even allowed to quit on his own term), there is an investigation of the feckup they did, and deep reforms are done. With the US controlling the purse strings, this should be easy to achieve. Of course, that doesn't give amnesty to anemic action Trump's administration took to prevent or mitigate the disease until mid-March.
We're on the same page, but for one caveat - which is that those who are safe/not at risk will need to get infected over 18 months. We still can't afford to have that many people infected over 18 months, even if they are somehow all from the lowest risk group. There are still a significant number of young people/people without comorbidities who need medical intervention because of this - and though they're at a lower risk of dying once they get medical intervention, if the health care system is overloaded they will also be dying because they won't get a ventilator/oxygen/hospital bed.
Sounds plausible. Norwegian media is reporting the location of every single death, and so far the care homes have slightly higher numbers than hospital deaths. It just goes to show that while we all focused on hospital capacity, very few countries were able to solve the problem of keeping the virus out of care homes.
One of the alleged origin of the outbreak happened around two weeks before the lockdown in Mulhouse, an evangelist event, so it was kind of too late for the north east part of the country. At the opposite corner we are kind of fine and fortunate, without the lockdown we would probably be in the same situation.I didn’t expect France would have such high numbers when was I think the first nation to close schools and other places....maybe I’m wrong
Glad it's brought you back. To be honest, a once a decade sensible comment average is better than most people's (especially mine).
This has been one of the threads that has been of real value over recent weeks... learned a lot about how spread, face masks, causes, options, discovered the Worldometers website. Sounds twee but Caf has also helped me feel some sort of social link (I'm in week.4 of working from home and it sucks).
Stay safe and remember ...... #Olein
A photo of the "ice palace". An ice rink in Madrid enabled days ago as a morgue.
It´s being said that the death toll could be close to 30,000, about double. There are many virus-related death licenses, but not all of them are counted.
"If a person dies without having undergone the test, in the death part, the last one is considered correct, that is to say, multiple organ failure, respiratory stress, or ,
severe respiratory insufficiency must be included as the immediate cause."
It´s being said that the death toll could be close to 30,000, about double. There are many virus-related death licenses, but not all of them are counted.
"If a person dies without having undergone the test, in the death part, the last one is considered correct, that is to say, multiple organ failure, respiratory stress, or ,
severe respiratory insufficiency must be included as the immediate cause."
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I just watch these videos of how these far east countries seem to so much more organized, with mass testing and tracing and think obviously nievley that we shouldnt be so crap, but here we are. And if it meant a bit of privacy lost would help than I'd be fine with that they can track what I do and look at what I Google.
I just like everyone else just wants this over I dread these daily death numbers.
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Grim.
Its definitely a social link and very helpful I dont read the papers out of principle. I'm a plumber and the phone isnt ringing so am at home with the family. I'm drinking every night got my gym stuff at home and its hard but I'd go mad without this outward connection.
It is around Strasbourg, right? Our branch in France is located in Strasbourg and my colleague from over there was saying the other day that most people she knows have either been infected or had someone from their close relatives infected. She was infected herself but fortunately it wasn’t that bad, her husband was in a pretty dire state for a while but he pulled through this.
So many countries are close to 10% mortality now... Italy well over that, Spain, France, UK, Netherlands, Belgium. I know the true infected number is much higher than reported but so is probably the number of deaths seemingly.
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Have you ever been to China or any authoritarian country? By the way the USA and other major countries have offices in China.
I have been there many times and though it's a dictatorship it's not North Korea. This talk about Urns is a complete bollocks. As for the story of hiding the true fact there is a complete article on this on the New York times as to what exactly happened. Nothing in it is about the federal government hiding it. China is more decentralized than most people think. The provinces have a lot of autonomy including different taxation.
Did the health authority in Wuhan hide it? Absolutely they did. Not only that they censored not only one doctor but most of them who treated this new virus. Did Beijing hide it? Not to any credible source. The Chinese CDC was as puzzled as anyone else about what was going on in Wuhan. This story about how the virus was discovered in November is after the investigation they did. In January when they discovered this was not SARs but a new one was when they alerted not only the WHO but everyone else too
The Chinese CDC even had US consultants working with them in Beijing.
The USA and Korea tested their first case on the same day on around the 23rd of January.
The rest of the world apart from the Asian countries did feck all from that time to beginning of March. That's why it has been so bad in these countries and not because of China or WHO.