SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Zlatan 7

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Here is what I know:

- I had flu several times in my life which all felt similar

- between 15-27 December, what started with a dry cough and fever, also included periods of deep sleep, loss of smell/taste, felt like I had glass shreds in throat when I coughed which was often, sometimes felt I couldn’t get enough air into my lungs, deep and prolonged abdominal pain, traumatic mental depression, total loss of energy and constant fatigue. It was the most horrifying ‘at home’ illness I’ve ever had.

- I took various OTC medicines like day/Night nurse, benilyn flu cough syrup, paracetamol. None seemed to provide any relief.

- it was certainly unlike any ‘flu’ I’ve ever had.

If I’d have these symptoms today, I’d almost certainly get admitted into hospital as a suspected covid19 patient. Instead I just assumed it was ‘flu’ and so toughed it out at home.

Anecdotally, I now know many others had same symptoms at same time. How many who knows.

If it was covid19, and some people died of it, I’m assuming those would have been recorded as simply death by flu. And as the media reports show, people died of flu in record numbers during December/January. And majority of others would have just roughed it out at home like I did, unlike many now who are going into hospital.

I think the Government should ask a sample of those who suffered in December to volunteer for the antibody test to get the bottom of this. But they won’t, because if it proves that we did have it in December, all hell would break lose in terms of Government incompetence.
I know of two people, one a baby, that had had letter from the hospital they were ill in, in January to return to have further tests. Related, who knows
 

Utdstar01

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How in the hell is Wuhan the epicentre going back to normal after 3000 deaths and the UK are recording nearly a 1000 a day something is not adding up here at all..
Because more than 3000 obviously died.
 

Mr Pigeon

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How in the hell is Wuhan the epicentre going back to normal after 3000 deaths and the UK are recording nearly a 1000 a day something is not adding up here at all..
Wuhan didn't allow like-minded individuals from affluent areas to meet up for a Sunday pub lunch.
 

Compton22

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How in the hell is Wuhan the epicentre going back to normal after 3000 deaths and the UK are recording nearly a 1000 a day something is not adding up here at all..
Because there have actually been significantly more deaths than 3000. China are kidding no one.
 

sammsky1

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How in the hell is Wuhan the epicentre going back to normal after 3000 deaths and the UK are recording nearly a 1000 a day something is not adding up here at all..
Because they live in 'prison style' tower blocks, every resident is on surveillance via mobile app, and you only get a 'green pass' which unlocks the residence gate if you've tested clean for at least 14 days. Those suspected of still being infected cant get out of their residential complex.

I've no idea how many died, but their lockdown was much more authoritarian and comprehensive than ours, as was their testing and tracking.
 

Simbo

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On 17th of January they locked down a province with more than 40 million people. 3 days after they found 'no evidence' of human to human transmission.

With the number of infections going from 27 (31of January) to hundreds when there was no evidence from human to human transmission. Give me a break, how on Earth people are falling for this?
It was 31st of Jan when they made the statement of "For the time being, no obvious human-to-human transmission has been observed and no healthcare workers have been infected. The causative pathogen and cause of infection are still under investigation". Translated in a HK press release here: https://www.info.gov.hk/gia/general/201912/31/P2019123100667.htm

Then This paper - https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30154-9/fulltext#back-bib24
- Talks about a family admitted on 10th Jan that had clearly transmitted it between themselves. I guess it was these cases that caught the attention of the Chinese government and began the drastic lockdown measures.

I don't know what others are expecting but it all seems pretty quick to me and I'm yet to see any evidence of a cover up?
 

Deery

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Wuhan didn't allow like-minded individuals from affluent areas to meet up for a Sunday pub lunch.
But even at that the virus is showing no signs of stopping but China is completely free of it now?
I mean what the hell is going on..
 

Dr. Dwayne

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But even at that the virus is showing no signs of stopping but China is completely free of it now?
I mean what the hell is going on..
Viruses need hosts. If you limit interpersonal contact and let things run their course you should theoretically be able to rid a population of it.

If you have affluent, like minded individuals getting together at the pub for a Sunday Sunday roast dinner then you'll give the virus plenty of hosts.
 

Deery

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Because they live in 'prison style' tower blocks, every resident is on surveillance via mobile app, and you only get a 'green pass' which unlocks the residence gate if you've tested clean for at least 14 days. Those suspected of still being infected cant get out of their residential complex.

I've no idea how many died, but their lockdown was much more authoritarian and comprehensive than ours, as was their testing and tracking.
But you’d think that a spread that reached ever corner of the world would be worst where it began even with a lockdown.
 

Mr Pigeon

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Because they live in 'prison style' tower blocks, every resident is on surveillance via mobile app, and you only get a 'green pass' which unlocks the residence gate if you've tested clean for at least 14 days. Those suspected of still being infected cant get out of their residential complex.

I've no idea how many died, but their lockdown was much more authoritarian and comprehensive than ours, as was their testing and tracking.
Yeah but someone was asked to move from a bench this week over here so it's practically the same thing.
 

sammsky1

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It's the main factor. And we have pretty good examples with vampire bats who saw their habitat destroyed and diminished which has led them to feed on what replaced it, cattle and cowboys in Central and South America. And for some reason people are surprised that we have more contacts with animals that ideally don't want to have anything to do with us.
Foxes on the streets of London :nervous::eek:
 

Deery

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Viruses need hosts. If you limit interpersonal contact and let things run their course you should theoretically be able to rid a population of it.

If you have affluent, like minded individuals getting together at the pub for a Sunday Sunday roast dinner then you'll give the virus plenty of hosts.
That was crazy now whenever you think about it and Cheltenham I am genuinely scared now at heights this virus will reach.
 

sammsky1

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But you’d think that a spread that reached ever corner of the world would be worst where it began even with a lockdown.
I don't think you truly understand how they 'locked' down.

Wuhan 'contained' the virus spread so much better than UK has been able to do, albeit through draconian and authoritarian methods. People were literally forcibly moved into quarantine or welded into their apartments.

As @Mr Pigeon points out, we have people in UK moaning about not being allowed to sit on a park bench for 2 hours or sunbathing in the park.

 
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TMDaines

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Yeah, kind of agree. If some strain mutated in something that is way more contagious than before, then we probably could assume that the new strain spread much more rapidly (essentially from a linear or quadratic spread to an exponential one) but there is nothing to suggest that this is the case.

What I think is more likely is that we just had a really bad year. A very bad flu season followed by the new virus. I guess it is the easiest explanation for more than average deaths/infections during the winter.
Where are people getting 19/20 being a particular bad flu season? It was miles better than both two and three years ago: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/weekly-national-flu-reports-2019-to-2020-season

I was listening to More or Less talking about this too earlier on, on how COVID-19 is killing off a lot of people who otherwise might have gone in a worse-than-average flu season.
 

redshaw

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With China they locked down hard at ~500 cases and even took infected people away to isolate from their family and had lots of tracing. Our lockdowns are like a holiday camp, France Spain Italy UK had done theirs at 200-300 deaths and thousands of cases and I don't expect the soft lockdowns to last long

We see other Asian countries doing very well but one thing they haven't done is press on with a hard lockdown so the cases are still ongoing but small numbers. China have smothered this to zero and it will probably come from outside if it starts again..

When I look at the way other Asian countries have kept the numbers very low despite having way more Chinese visitors and were hit earlier on than Europe. Germany so far doing a decent job of managing it relative to other large European countries and China with it's severe enforcement, the numbers all look commensurate to the actions, technology and preparedness.

South Korea's outbreak is like a mini version of what happened in Wuhan China and shows what can be done when you zero in on it except with China they have clamped down until it's run to an end while SK like others in Asia have heavily limited it but it's creeping along the bars and clubs in the younger populace. To truly stop the virus quickly it has to die with its hosts and be fought off by the body in strict isolation. What we have in Europe is a bit of damage control to help the services.
 
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Dr. Dwayne

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I think all this Germany talk is a myth.

They are managing treatment well, it seems, because they have a low death rate.

They still have 113k cases. Nothing to be proud of. Their containment is as shitty as anyone's in Europe.
 

justboy68

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Whatever the numbers might really have been, there's surely no way that the Chinese government would risk opening up Wuhan now unless they were pretty confident they could manage and contain the virus from here on out.

The health code app and gps tracking will be playing a central role, and honestly something similar will probably be needed in all countries to get things moving again while monitoring and tracing potential further outbreaks.
 

sammsky1

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The health code app and gps tracking (eg China) will be playing a central role, and honestly something similar will probably be needed in all countries to get things moving again while monitoring and tracing potential further outbreaks.
Meanwhile in the USA .... Freedom!!
 
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Volumiza

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To think half the population have had it is just stupid though. Theres no benefit to entertaining such ideas.

If you look at the hospitilisation data alone, this virus is far, far too aggressive for cases to have slipped through and been chalked up as just the flu. In Italy the flu season is spread out over months but at its peak less than 100 people needed ICU care, even in this apparently bad year. Within 3 weeks of the virus outbreak almost 2,000 people were in ICU. Theres no way it goes unnoticed through half the population.
Pretty clear isn’t it? I’m sure we may have had a few cases before the UK’s first recorded case but, seeing hospitalisation timelines and numbers in every country, to think it was here running loose through the population since December is pure fantasy.

ICU’s would have been overrun weeks before now and we’d be in a terrible mess.

I know quite a few people who are saying ‘I reckon I had this over Christmas’ or something similar. Dunno, they either want bragging rights or are trying to convince themselves they’re immune or something.

I had a mild cold and chest infection about 5 weeks ago but I’m assuming it wasn’t this virus and I’ll assume the same until I’ve had an antibody test. Until that day I’m taking social distancing really seriously.
 

Kopral Jono

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Here is what I know:

- I've had flu several times in my life, all which felt similar

- between 15-27 December, what started with a dry cough and fever, also included periods of deep sleep, loss of smell/taste, felt like I had glass shreds in throat when I coughed which was often, sometimes felt I couldn’t get enough air into my lungs, deep and prolonged abdominal pain, traumatic mental depression, total loss of energy and constant fatigue.

- I took various OTC medicines like day/Night nurse, benilyn flu cough syrup, paracetamol. None seemed to provide any relief.

- It was the most horrifying ‘at home’ illness and certainly unlike any ‘flu’ I’ve ever had.

If I’d have these symptoms today, I’d almost certainly get admitted into hospital as a suspected covid19 patient. Instead I just assumed it was ‘flu’ and so toughed it out at home.

Anecdotally, I now know many others had same symptoms at same time. How many who knows.

If it was covid19, and some people died of it, I’m assuming those would have been recorded as simply death by flu. And as the media reports show, people died of flu in record numbers during December/January. And majority of others would have just roughed it out at home like I did, unlike many now who are going into hospital or being tested as positive cases.

I think the Government should ask a sample of those who suffered in December to volunteer for the antibody test to get the bottom of this. But they won’t, because if it proves that we did have it in December, all hell would break lose in terms of Government incompetence.
I started a thread on this. Long story short, during the last week of January I went down with with the nastiest 'flu' you could imagine: a persistent fever ranging at 39C, constant shivering, night sweats, severe body aches, a bad headache and a slight dry cough. I wasn't out of breath but a quick trip to the toilet or kitchen would leave me fatigued. Those symptoms went away within one week fatigue aside, but for around a couple of weeks after I had trouble with dizziness and confusion and that was really unsettling.

Four days prior to me developing those symptoms, I had dined with a good friend of mine who was visiting Jakarta from Paris via Singapore. She, too, developed the same thing the same day as I did but without the dizziness part afterwards. My partner had a dry cough, low-grade fever and a slight shortness of breath (though she does suffer from asthma) soon after, and I also learned that another mutual friend caught pneumonia about a week after seeing her.

It's just too much of a coincidence.
 

Tucholsky

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Just had a virus expert on the morning news here, he reckons Stockholm is “likely” up to 30-40% infected already.
Crazy numbers if so, 30% would mean almost 700,000 people.
If he is right AND the percentage of ICU beds needed per infected is nearly as high as reported from other countries, then Stockholm and the health system is fecked.
Lets just hope one of the numbers is wrong.
 
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If he is right AND the percentage of ICU beds needed per infected is nearly as high as reported from other countries, then Stockholm and the health system is fecked.
Lets just hope one of the numbers is wrong.
His point was that the ICU beds per infected is looking much much lower.
Or well, that’s you can keep it miles lower the better you are at keeping it away from your 70+ population.
So yeah, let’s hope that number is way out, which is what we’ve all been hoping for since the start.
 
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MDFC Manager

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Yeah, it looks extrmely unlikely to me. We saw how fast it spread in March if it was since November in Europe then why it waited so long to spread?
Simplest explanation is often the correct one.

The virus simply waited for Liverpool to get closer to winning the title.
 

C'est Moi Cantona

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Did you or anyone around you completely lose your sense of taste and smell?
My brother had this, the most unusual thing I had was eye ball pain on the left when I moved it, which lasted about 2 days.

To be clear as some other poster said this isn't about 'bragging rights'. or convincing yourself of anything, hearing about other people's illnesses is extremely tiresome, it was just what I think is an unusual illness to have had, and others around me to have had just before this thing kicked off, I could be miles off the mark.
 

Pogue Mahone

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My brother had this, the most unusual thing I had was eye ball pain on the left when I moved it, which lasted about 2 days.

To be clear as some other poster said this isn't about 'bragging rights'. or convincing yourself of anything, hearing about other people's illnesses is extremely tiresome, it was just what I think is an unusual illness to have had, and others around me to have had just before this thing kicked off, I could be miles off the mark.
Really?! Wow. That might have been covid so. When was this? Had any of ye travelled recently?
 

Pogue Mahone

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Is that a socio-economic thing or a difference in levels of immunity between races?
Definitely socio-economic (will rip through high population density communities much quicker and lack of free healthcare means poor people more likely to die) but hypertension, cv disease and renal failure is more predominant in black people (because of genetic differences) which will cause a higher mortality rate.