Very sorry to hear that
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
That may have to do with the cover up in Dec-mid Jan. Many countries have fecked this right up since Feb, but the CCP did try to cover things up with the help of their CHO puppet Tedros.
RIP
Good study. Stockholm has around 460 deaths. 100%/2.5%=40 So with everyone infected (everyone will not get it), around 18k deaths. Population 2,3m, equals death rate of around 0.8%. Sounds about right.
Study was done 27.3-3.4. It takes some time to develop symptoms, but average time for death is around 20 days. So many haven't had time to die yet from that time period. Many things influence it in both directions but death rate of 0.4-1.2% seems quite likely from previous info also.
I asked this a week ago and didn't get a good answer, but why the feck are Italy, 1 month after a national quarantine, still getting 4,204 new cases in a day?
What's the reason for this?
What's the reason for this?
Terrible news mate, so sorry to hear that. Small consolidation i know, but hes a hero and i will clap a little longer tonight for him
We will have to wear protection on our faces starting next week, doesn’t have to be a mask - can be a scarf as well (not sure who would wear a scarf in April though). Lockdown is basically extended until 3 May as well. They will have to lift it then as elections are the following week so millions of people will have to go out anyway (you go to jail for up to 3 years if you don’t submit your voting card).
Meh. You can indeed argue that the odus should not be on private commercial organisations, or indeed wealthy individuals, to be responding to a crisis, but the reality is simply that government simply cannot afford it by itself. Its an extreme comparison, but look at the World Wars - companies were enlisted to produce was was required for the national war effort, civilian factories were repurposed into military ones.
As mentioned, the current initiatives to me smell a bit like "PR stunt" rather than "genuine effort to improve the situation". The phone companies could [for instance] offer discounts on line rental for key workers, or offer contract freezes/months free for those who have been made unemployed due to the pandemic. Do they have to? No. Do they stand to gain from it? Not financially, although an argument could be made for reputational value. As someone who worked for Vodafone for 5 years - giving away some free data is largely meaningless and costs the company pretty much nothing.
In the world of 4G and beyond, bandwidth and capacity isnt really an issue any more for network providers, frankly its laughable that data limits still exist in that scope (and speaking from experience, that is mostly so that they can charge extra when people exceed the limit).
Yeah, as I said above, data limits are an outdated concept now in my view. Back on Edge/GPRS/3G an argument could be made for networks lacking bandwidth capacity, but not anymore. But we digress. Im glad if the offer improves the lives of some NHS workers, but I dont really consider the gesture from EE to be a significant contribution. Still, better than other companies that arent doing anything.
Glad you guys have come to your senses and ignoring Tedros.
Most numbers won't tell the whole picture.
Covid patients in poor country will be most likely to die, compared to patients in richer country. Perhaps poor and rich is a wrong word, but you get the gist. If a person got covid in a place where their NHS is already overwhelmed the death number would be exponentially higher, thus skewing whatever mortality rate they have.
Let's assume Whole hospital have 100 beds.
100 beds vs. 100 Patients = low death rate
100 beds vs. 200 patients = 100 death rate?
100 beds vs. 300 patients = 200 death rate?
In an ideal world, a patient diagnosed with Covid receiving a 1 on 1 proper medical treatment would have a much higher survival rate. But the same patient, same virus, same everything on a 1 on 100 care would probably have a slimmer chance.
Each country NHS maximum capacity is the Dam that must not be broken.
That’s dreadful news. I’m sorry.
The extremist in people is finally coming out of hiding.
He is also the same guy that hates the gay people and generally mocks Europe for being so liberal and weak. I guess the liberal ideology is taking a big hit after this crisis?
1/40 is infected (2.5%). Deaths now in Stockholm 460. If everybody gets it: 40*460= 18.400 deaths in Stockholm. Population of Stockholm 2.3m. 18.400/2.300.000=0.8%
Deaths we see today (9.4.) are from infections taking place 2-5 weeks ago. So earlier than this study was made. So this would under-estimate the death rate. But so many things affect it (demograpichs of tested/infected/dead, who had it before the test but recovered, and so on) that it isn't a final figure, but in the same ball park we knew from elsewhere.
Rumour is that word got out that they were locking down the north a day or two before it happened. A bunch of people then left their homes up north and went to stay with their families in the south of Italy. This is probably why.
https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/...says-he-once-gay-but-cured-myself/1327345001/The extremist in people is finally coming out of hiding.
I guess the liberal ideology is taking a big hit after this crisis?
The guy who admitted to "used to be gay"?
Of course. Depends from country to country and from region to region with-in countries for multiple of reasons. Still a useful data point.
RIP
Thanks guys. The risk these people take.
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Sorry sorry mate, thoughts with you and your family x
Yes, it’s truly humbling really. Even more so when I read posts like yours.
Correlation and causation, etc: how would you know from that picture whether it's because of bad air, or whether it's population density that's causing both bad air quality and rapid spread?
What a warrior he was. Condolences to you mate.
Even then, should it still be spreading so much so late into a full quarantine? If everyone fled South on the 8th March?
Cheers, but 2.5% random people were infected right there and then, so likely the percentage who "have" been infected was much much higher right? Even a fair amount the 97.5% of negative people in the study may have had the virus, just weren't bearing it then.
That's what hopefully tomorrow will tell us once they've put that into the model.
Easily, yeah, when you take into account the incubation period. Someone may get it and then it takes up to a couple of weeks for them to be ill and pass it to the next person and so on and so on.
This didn't really tell me much to be honest.Had this been posted? Satellite photo showing air pollution levels in Europe (from February)
What do we compare it to?
@Revan the updated figures for tests in France. On April 5th hospitals labs had done 274409 tests and on April 7th 59398 tests were done in private labs, so at least 333807 tests were done on April 7th. Currently around 20k tests are done in hospitals and 5k-6k in private labs, daily.
But how are they passing it on to the next in quarantine?
Ok, better than before, though I still think that 25k is really low at this stage.
Because they went to live with their families in the south. So they are passing it on in quarantine to people they now live with, for starters.
I think the point is that places that have high air pollution are also the places being hardest hit. So maybe people’s respiratory systems are weaker there.
Right, that makes sense, I suppose. I thought it was one of those pictures showing how little air pollution we have after the outbreak.
I did too at first. Had to stare at it for a while.
Depends how long the test can detect infected people. Let's say it is 14 days. If doubling time in Stockholm in March was around 4 days, it gives us 2^(14/4)=11. So it should be missing only 2.5%/11=0.23% of the cases. Which would mean less than 10% of the 2,5% of the people had had it and recovered so they are not detected in the test. So it doesn't change almost at all.
Edit: I am saying it in a silly way that should be added to the 2.5%, so 2,73% would have had it before or have it during study.
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So can we get back to hating Boris now that he isn't in intensive care?
Probably not. With an exponential increase in the number of cases, you can bet that the vast majority of the infected are infected right now (not infected and then healed). That 2.5% might go to 3% or so, but not much more than that IMO.
That's pretty much what South Korea were doing when everyone was praising them. Now of course that's not the goal but to call it really low is a bit ridiculous.
Good plan
But we already have reasons why northern Italy was hit hard early. The picture needs more context and a legend (and source).
With the increase on infections, also the testing should increase. France now per capita is doing the same as the US (which is blamed for not doing enough testings). Of course much better than the UK, but for example, far worse than Germany (who is trying to increase it from 80k to 200-300k per day).