SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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Depends how long the test can detect infected people. Let's say it is 14 days. If doubling time in Stockholm in March was around 4 days, it gives us 2^(14/4)=11. So it should be missing only 2.5%/11=0.23% of the cases. Which would mean less than 10% of the 2,5% of the people had had it and recovered so they are not detected in the test. So it doesn't change almost at all.
Probably not. With an exponential increase in the number of cases, you can bet that the vast majority of the infected are infected right now (not infected and then healed). That 2.5% might go to 3% or so, but not much more than that IMO.
5 days according to Tegnell today.

We’ll see tomorrow, I suspect it’ll be a lot higher.

Anyone in the test group infected for example between 1st March - approx 20th March would have shown as negative.
 
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But is 5 days today or 3-4 weeks ago? Anyway doesn't change much. If 2.5% is correct (it had confidence levels from 1.4%-4.2%) the "real" total amount is at most 3% as @Revan said
The test isn’t an antibody test, no-one has an approved one yet.

The test can see if any of the test group were bearing the virus when the took the test, and Tegnell said that will likely be a window of 5 days.

Although yeah, I get that you can take from that that 2.5% of Stockholm had the virus during those dates. I get your maths and Revan’s input now.
 
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JPRouve

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With the increase on infections, also the testing should increase. France now per capita is doing the same as the US (which is blamed for not doing enough testings). Of course much better than the UK, but for example, far worse than Germany (who is trying to increase it from 80k to 200-300k per day).
But it's not really low, you have been using South Korea has an example every day and now you make that type of claim. I can accept the argument that they need to continue increasing daily tests which is exactly what they are doing but you can't go around claiming that it's really low when it's not, particularly when the country that has been used as a reference didn't test a lot more.

Anyway, it's not the goal, veterinary labs have been given the authorisation to help increase the testing capabilities, the only issue at the moment is that people don't go to labs, something may have to be done about it.
 

massi83

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The test isn’t an antibody test, no-one has an approved one yet.

The test can see if any of the test group were bearing the virus when the took the test, and Tegnell said that will likely be a window of 5 days.
Thought you meant doubling time. 5 days to show it on test can not be correct. People have symptoms a lot longer even in some of the milder cases.

Hmm, maybe on average, if asymptomatic people "recover" in 1-3 days. So if the test really is that bad, it would indeed double it to 5% and bring the death rate down accordingly.
 
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antsmithmk

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BBC
England reports 765 new coronavirus deaths
NHS England has recorded 765 new deaths in hospital from coronavirus.
It said that 140 of them occurred yesterday, while 568 took place between 1 April and 7 April.
The remaining 57 deaths took place in March, including two on 19 March and one on 16 March

My make the numbers seem better but this could go for any released daily figures in Europe
It doesn't make the numbers seem better? The delay is deaths is in the systems used to report
Why would Northern Italy be giving off the most pollution? I obviously know that it’s been a badly hit area but can’t see the correlatio, unless they’re taking no notice of any curfew?
You wouldn't naturally associate Northern Italy with heavy industry perhaps? I don't have much to go on but I do know that quite a bit of train manufacturing takes place in that area.
 
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Thought you meant doubling time. 5 days to show it on test can not be correct. People have symptoms a lot longer even in some of the milder cases.

Hmm, maybe on average, if asymptomatic people "recover" in 1-3 days. So if the test really is that bad, it would indeed double it to 5% and bring the death rate down accordingly.
Only passing on what was said in presser:

Anders Tegnell poängterar dock att viruset finns kvar hos personer i omkring fem dagar och att viruset spridits i huvudstaden i över en månads tid.

(Sure you get the above but for the rest).

Anders Tegnell makes the point however that the virus exists in the person for approximately 5 days and that the virus was in the capital for over a month.
 

massi83

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Only passing on what was said in presser:

Anders Tegnell poängterar dock att viruset finns kvar hos personer i omkring fem dagar och att viruset spridits i huvudstaden i över en månads tid.

(Sure you get the above but for the rest).

Anders Tegnell makes the point that the virus exists in the person for approximately 5 days and that the virus was in the capital for over a month.
Thanks, well that's good news. So I would revise my death rate to around 0.5%
 

Igor Drefljak

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With 65k confirmed cases, where do we reckon we're at in reality.... 10x that, maybe 20x by now?
Doesn't even scratch the surface in reality
 

Ish

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South African lockdown as just been extend by another 2 weeks (from the original 3 weeks). So we’re in here for 5 weeks in total (for now), until end April.

Average daily increase in cases before lockdown 42% (1,100 cases at lockdown) to 4% daily increase in cases for the past 2 weeks (1,900 or so cases, roughly).
 

sammsky1

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A doctor who was a good friend of my uncle and sister (also a doc) died in UK today from covid19, picked up on the front line.
Ironically and tragically, he wrote to PM 3 weeks ago, desperately asking for more PPE


 
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dannyrhinos89

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My whole street was out then clapping and there was quite a few fireworks going off in the distance too.
 

sammsky1

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I think some of those things can open. Pubs, Cinema's, Gyms can open as long as there is strict enforcement of the number of people in them & carefully management of crowds gathering outside. Maybe you'll have to make a booking to go into a pub or gym (so you don't queue up outside), limit group sizes etc.
Cant see gyms opening soon at all, given the heavy breathing and multiple surface touching that goes on in a work out.
 

Igor Drefljak

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A doctor who was a good friend of my uncle and my sister (also a doc) died in UK today from covid19, picked up on the front line.
Ironically and tragically, he wrote to PM 3 weeks after asking for more PPE


His kids have literally been on Sky News just now. 11 year old daughter speaking about him, absolutely heartbreaking
 

utdalltheway

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Watching the governor of California giving his briefing; it's night and day away from Trump's daily show, which I've stopped watching now for a few weeks.
 

Hansa

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Just noticed that Scotland has 447 deaths from only 4957 cases, with 1781 hospitalized - that's a very worrying rate on every level, which points to a severe lack of testing. Not to be too morbid, but is there a detailed list of the UK, where you can monitor the testing done in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, or possibly the counties of England? I've watched quite a few news reports from the London area, but the rest seems to be a bit forgotten.
 

F-Red

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Meh. You can indeed argue that the odus should not be on private commercial organisations, or indeed wealthy individuals, to be responding to a crisis, but the reality is simply that government simply cannot afford it by itself. Its an extreme comparison, but look at the World Wars - companies were enlisted to produce was was required for the national war effort, civilian factories were repurposed into military ones.
It is an extreme comparison, but we're not anywhere near a world war style scenario. People's lives aren't on hold for years and years, this is a short term (by war time scales) scenario. There are some commercial organisations that can do something to help, using knowledge, expertise and capability - i don't see any problem with this, and certainly should be applauded but society issues shouldn't sit at their door to fix. However this is just a convenient smoke screen for government and their failings of being prepared for a scenario like this, both in terms of physical supplies and the structure to support it.

As mentioned, the current initiatives to me smell a bit like "PR stunt" rather than "genuine effort to improve the situation". The phone companies could [for instance] offer discounts on line rental for key workers, or offer contract freezes/months free for those who have been made unemployed due to the pandemic. Do they have to? No. Do they stand to gain from it? Not financially, although an argument could be made for reputational value. As someone who worked for Vodafone for 5 years - giving away some free data is largely meaningless and costs the company pretty much nothing.
Having sold into Vodafone for 7 years and knowing them intimately, the data element is an easy one for them to give away but actually will help people. Giving away discount as a notional gesture is a bit hollow for me, they weren't doing it before - so why now? What defines a key worker? The industry i work in now classes some people in our industry as a key worker which in reality is laughable. It doesn't necessarily help the hardest hit or the most needy, but as a gesture i can see why people assume that giving money away is the right thing to do.

The commercial reality is that businesses up and down the chain have challenges of money coming in to keep the business afloat (Vodafone is a wrong example here), but for some businesses the pitch fork nature of offering discount isn't going to help them keep their business solvent once restrictions are lifted. There's certainly a bandwagon & if i speak to my other half who works for the NHS, they would rather have the tools to do the job than some temporary and notional £10 off their phone contract.
 

F-Red

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Just noticed that Scotland has 447 deaths from only 4957 cases, with 1781 hospitalized - that's a very worrying rate on every level, which points to a severe lack of testing. Not to be too morbid, but is there a detailed list of the UK, where you can monitor the testing done in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, or possibly the counties of England? I've watched quite a few news reports from the London area, but the rest seems to be a bit forgotten.
People are only being tested when they're admitted to hospital.
 

FootballHQ

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I think you misunderstood what I mean. Even now the Chinese are being blamed for this. Even though in my opinion the countries who are getting it so badly got it because of the incompetence of their own politicians .
Now if China opens up Wuhan and it comes back and spread out again USA and UK could declare war on China. A war of some sort and not necessarily military.
Guess contact tracing and flight tracking will be taken a little more seriously over next few months then from January-March so you'd like to think any new outbreak will be more locally contained.

The problem remains with the virus already in the UK and everything else. It will be back in the winter but then you hope the antibody tests will be around, decent % of population already got immunity and then a vaccine might only be a few months away.
 

FootballHQ

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I'm not buying that either. Too many people have come out of the woodwork to claim they were infected back in December. Flu or not, none of their relatives died or anybody they knew.
F
Pretty sure I read there was higher % of deaths from "flu" in UK hospitals than in many other previous years. A few people living in China are freely saying it was around in November so I think it's a sure bet it was roaming in europe earlier than we've seen.