It's easy to stop virtually everyone here, because it's such a small place. Two police officers can do it all. The lady I was waiting with actually said they wouldn't do this in Milan, because there's too many people!
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
All premised on him actually being a journalist;
- We absolutely do not want to go down a route that sees Police tell journalists they can’t bear witness to something and report on it.
The correct move would be for one copper to say;
“Please stand next to the van, film and document, but please move on when the ‘arrest’ concludes”
Any dilution of that is a dilution of freedom for zero upside.
The exact sort of behaviour we chastise countries like China for, in other words.
It's funny to laugh at countries like that but on a serious note - does anyone really believe that the people there think that it's weird? Or would their attitude be "they need to do this to protect us and keep us safe". It's how decades and decades of propaganda takes its toll on a population.
Nice idea in theory. In reality though if you do that then you can't get all the money, and only all the money counts. Worst is that someone else might get some of the money: Stat modelling by Golden Balls University - Jasper Carrott.
Uk fudging the numbers?
We have discovered evidence that at least one NHS trust is gently discouraging doctors from giving Covid-19 as a cause of death. https://t.co/9S3dH6G1nX
We have discovered evidence that at least one NHS trust is gently discouraging doctors from giving Covid-19 as a cause of death. https://t.co/9S3dH6G1nX
I wouldn't want to get to a point where Police are running a state like route of aggresiveness either but I think things like this also serve to stir up hatred of the Police at a time when they're in a very difficult situation. It's possible to enforce social distancing as a Police Officer but it is also very difficult and when you're in a high pressure job such as that you won't have your mind set to "oh shit I forgot I have to be 2m away from everyone". Things will slip.
Yeah, we need to have people reporting on the world still but the journo was able to film a bit and then was told to leave and go home.I don't think that is wrong. Probably a better way about it from the Police side of things and the rules should be laid out a bit clearer to them if it already hasn't been that journalists can film but I think there is going to need to be a bit of two way respect here. If we are told to go home then we should do so and when home take it up with relevant authority. Prolonging an incident does more harm.
Surely a late lockdown like ours costs the same amount of money compared to an early one. The difference is with an early one you have a slightly bigger chance of snuffing the problem out at the root. Also with an early lockdown, you probably wouldn't need it to last 6 fecking weeks.
Its gone well and truly viral .... Captain Tom Moore has so far raised £13.5m in sponsorship for NHS: https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/tomswalkforthenhs
His final 10 laps:
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At this point in time anybody dying from pneumonia is highly likely to be covid-19. They can inflate the pneumonia numbers all they want but the truth is easily revealed if you compare to data from past years.
The peak you are referring to is only the first peak. It's not all plain sailing after that.
Once you lift restrictions there'll be a second peak and third etc, etc.
Without a vaccine I can't see a situation where there won't be some level of restrictions this time next year.
Not if you manage your exit strategy well and people adhere to the "lesser restrictions" with which people should be able to live for a much longer period of time. I think it's obvious to everyone that it definitely won't be "plain sailing" like it used to be after that first peak.
We need to learn how to live with the virus for a long time. It's no good imposing a lockdown, then free for all after that, then a second lockdown when a second peak arrives, rinse repeat. We need to come up with a way of life that manages the level of infections, i.e. we need to find a way of life to co-exist with the virus yet return to "normal" life as much as possible. Finding that balance will be difficult and might take some time, it'll be different for each country. But the obvious goal is to not get second and third peaks when you lift the "hardcore lockdown" which is now in place in a lot of countries. It might fluctuate and will get worse at times, but the goal is to avoid as big a peak as we've seen now, and I think that's possible because both governments and the population will be better prepared and act way in advance if they see a new rise in cases.
It's up to the governments now to implement the exit strategy they think will work long term. It's no use to change measures every two weeks depending on new cases.
I think the Merkel video from yesterday explains how difficult that will be really well. If each person gives it to 1 other (i.e the status quo with current restrictions) it's manageable, if each person gives it to 1.1 their health service would be at capacity in August, if one person gives it to 1.3 it would be overwhelmed in June.
The rate of infection without restrictions is estimated between 4 to 6 per person now so any lifting of restrictions is going to be risky.
That's very much worst case scenario at this point. It's unlikely the virus will go away but eventually the country will learn to live with it because there is just simply no other choice that doesn't involve extreme long term poverty which will make this virus look harmless by comparison. Even now with the peak either here or close less than 200 out of every million are dying, ultimately there's more chance of dying on the road (probably even a plane for under 30s) it's only a matter of time before the majority of people start looking at that and playing to percentages instead of the worst case scenario, especially once the numbers go vastly down.
Indefinite house arrest just isn't viable for a huge number of reason's. And what tends to go unnoticed is we aren't in this lockdown to completely prevent death or wipe out the virus, unfortunately neither are possible, we're in it so we don't overwhelm the NHS and buy time to sort out more sustainable measures like building extra hospitals (Boris said as much in the lockdown announcement and Rishi Sunak reinforced that same message in his most recent daily briefing).
I spoke to a mate this morning who’s a paramedic in London. He said it’s absolutely brutal at the moment.
He said it’s the other deaths not directly attributed to the Coronavirus that are not getting reported at all that are just as worrying.
If you have a heart attack or are involved in a serious accident you’re basically fecked as it’s taking over half an hour to get through to the emergency services Let alone get them too you.
Awful times.
He said it’s the other deaths not directly attributed to the Coronavirus that are not getting reported at all that are just as worrying.
If you have a heart attack or are involved in a serious accident you’re basically fecked as it’s taking over half an hour to get through to the emergency services Let alone get them too you.
Awful times.
Germany can do things with that high accuracy because of the testing. For us, we have nowhere near the testing capacity of Germany so we'll be lifting the restrictions without as much in hand information compared to them. Argh.
Why can't we improve on the testing?
On this topic, what are considered to be the real epicentres in the UK at the moment?
London, obviously, but is there any other specific cities or regions that have been badly hit? i have mates in Yorkshire who say Sheffield is bad?
Not to mention how good she is at being direct and explaining things well unlike our government.
You can check cases by local authority here: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#local-authorities
Birmingham and Sheffield are pretty bad.
Is it really about that though? The legality? I mean let’s ask ourselves, is him filming that incident necessary at all? The woman wasn’t having her head kicked in.
Is the guardian going to run a story of ‘female arrested in park and walked to van by officers’ ?
I get the fascination with filming absolutely everything under the sun and posting it online out of context but could people just not do this whilst the country is being ravaged by a virus?
People need to take some fecking responsibility sometimes. In these times, act like an adult. You don’t need to film that, onlookers and people nearby don’t know he’s a journalist, they’ll see that and they’ll think something is going on and in turn they too will start gathering and pulling out cameras. We don’t need martyrs encouraging this sort of behaviour, especially as I’ve already said it’s completely unnecessary. Are officers now supposed to check on everybody filming them to see if they’re legitimate journalists? Just because they said they were. How about you just not film?
That video was shot in Finsbury Park, where I worked for a day about two weeks ago and during the day there were groups of people repeatedly going there to socialise and have beers and pretty much everyone we spoke to greeted us with snobby, sarcastic remarks. Thats probably why a TSG unit are there because to put it bluntly they tend to be a bit more “assertive” and less customer friendly.
And expecting Police to be able to socially distance themselves when out and about is absurd. It is encouraged but in reality it is completely unrealistic.
People are deluded. People are whinging and moaning about people not respecting the lockdown and somehow think these same people will simply obey and adhere to instructions to go home from an officer standing two metres away and politely asking “can you go home please”?
What planet are these people living on?
There’s a complete lack of personal responsibility in this country. But I guess it shouldn’t be a surprise when you have government officials putting out the most insincere apologies known to man when asked about their response to the coronavirus. Why would the citizens behave any different?
https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.cyc...-safe-distancing-while-exercising-goes-viral/
there is a more extensive one but I can’t find it right now
She is amazing and I really have a renewed respect for her in the way she's handled this event.
It's not perfect in Germany of course but I can at least, hand on heart, convince myself that she really is trying her best, unlike many other world governments.
Christ some in here actually think its doom mongering to suggest they'll be a second peak?
It's as if some think we can just think positive thoughts and it'll all be okay.
It's as if some think we can just think positive thoughts and it'll all be okay.
Also been told exactly the same from my 2 sisters who both work in London NHS hospitals right now.
Increase in deaths today to 870. Up a bit from the past few days, catching up from the Easter holidays maybe?
Try comparing it to Ireland who has .1 difference in ICU capacity. Let’s see how the UK response stacks up then. It’s not a pretty picture
I've explained the difference between Holland and Belgium before. In Belgium, more than 70% of all deaths concerning Covid19 happen in nursing homes. Even people who aren't tested after their death are still counted in the statistics. This distorts the numbers massively. If 20 people die in a nursing home and there are some cases of Covid19 there, they are all counted as Covid19 patients, as we weren't able to test everyone before. Holland doesn't count those. If you would compare the actual confirmed Covid19 deaths (after tests) we have a 'better' mortality rate than Holland.
Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. An unwelcome rise of 89 in reported cases today to 740. Still not the big increase in cases I thought would happen though. One more tiny data point that timorously suggests we might've already passed peak deaths and are beginning the long, slow, wobbly slide.Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Decent news from NHS England today. Due to the long weekend I thought there'd be a big rise in reported deaths, instead the opposite happened and they fell to 651 (-93) by 5pm yesterday. Gives some hope that we may well be just around or just past the peak. Let's hope tomorrow is similar.
Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
Orange is a 5 day trailing average (last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes):
So. I was reading some article saying a mutation has been observed..
Any chance it keeps coming back like the flu and by coming back, I mean never goes away ... because it doesnt really have a "flu season" ?
Any chance it keeps coming back like the flu and by coming back, I mean never goes away ... because it doesnt really have a "flu season" ?
The odds of dying on a plane are 1 in 5 million, according to Google. Covid 19 kills 1 in 500 young people. That's 1000x the odds!
No, the worst case scenario would be hit if it killed minimum 1400+ people every day for a year without fail!
And that's not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.
You're talking about the peak as if it were some unique point. It's just a point at which current numbers appear to be plateauing due to the measures in place. I keep seeing this misunderstanding everywhere, including the media. If you remove the measures after observing a reduction in the number of cases and deaths, then it's likely that you will see a rise again, hitting another peak.
For the record I completely appreciate the fact that economy will suffer, and that long-term lock down isn't sustainable.
I just simply can't see any solutions. I pretty much think we're "doomed" (to barrow the word from the complaints about doom-mongering in this thread).
Nah sorry, we shouldn’t ever accept the police getting to decide when journalists can and cannot report. I have no problem with them being required to carry a press ID or something, but one they’ve identified themselves and as long as they’re not breaking any laws, the police can mind their own fecking business.
But it's not up to you(Or the police) to decide what should and shouldn't be filmed, right ? He's well with his rights to film the arrest, now you can disagree that it wasn't of huge importance but that clearly wasn't the argument the police were making, they simply wanted him to stop the recording and go home.
Alternatively how about the officers let the person continue to film at a safe distance ? Rather than breaking the social distance they are suppose to be enforcing ? Which would have resulted in a safe outcome for both the officers and the journalist.
It was the officers who broke the socially distancing in order to try to stop him filming(In fact it seems they got out of their van to do this
). There was no need for them to do this as the guy filmed hadn't broken any laws.There's definitely an undercount going on. That's already beginning to show up in the difference between the official government Covid figures and the 6k increase in deaths registered by the ONS for the week ending 3rd April.
You're going off the worst case scenario assumption and then conclude that we're doomed. You're of course entitled to your opinion, but you'll end up in a depression if you wake up every day with those thoughts. I'm not one for blind optimism but come on, we're a few months into this pandemic, you've only felt the consequences of it for four weeks or so, yet you're already resigning to the fact that humanity is doomed... Well, sorry for not being that negative and thinking that there will be a viable solution for this shit or at least a way to co-exist with the virus.
I just want to own up and say how terribly wrong I was. I massively underestimated something I knew nothing about and I was beyond ignorant in assumptions and claims I made when this was all beginning.
I have no problem admitting I was wrong and using this as a lesson. I was wrong. I am sorry.
I hope somehow things return back to normality sooner rather then later but I just dont see it at the moment. Stay safe everyone.
I have no problem admitting I was wrong and using this as a lesson. I was wrong. I am sorry.
I hope somehow things return back to normality sooner rather then later but I just dont see it at the moment. Stay safe everyone.
Check out @laineydoyle on Twitter
she did a good job of laying bare a comparison between UK response and Ireland
she hit many notes that we were trying to convey to my wife’s elderly parents who live in the UK. It was like an alternative reality. In Ireland we were being told the seriousness and shutting down schools and St. paddy’s day. Meanwhile Boris was talking about shaking hands, washing hands and so on. My wife’s mum was planning trips to meet her friends in London, going to mass, going to m&s to buy a bunch of flowers. We’d be saying no, stay indoors and shed be telling us “but we are allowed to go out”. It’s what they were being told, and even when the messaging started it was confusing and unclear. People were literally waiting for the government to tell them and it wasn’t coming.
Concerts, football matches, Cheltenham, pubs, etc. Madness!
its all bad leadership and why the UK numbers are so ducked up compared to Ireland. Thousands have died because of the response.
I find it so bloody frustrating
she did a good job of laying bare a comparison between UK response and Ireland
she hit many notes that we were trying to convey to my wife’s elderly parents who live in the UK. It was like an alternative reality. In Ireland we were being told the seriousness and shutting down schools and St. paddy’s day. Meanwhile Boris was talking about shaking hands, washing hands and so on. My wife’s mum was planning trips to meet her friends in London, going to mass, going to m&s to buy a bunch of flowers. We’d be saying no, stay indoors and shed be telling us “but we are allowed to go out”. It’s what they were being told, and even when the messaging started it was confusing and unclear. People were literally waiting for the government to tell them and it wasn’t coming.
Concerts, football matches, Cheltenham, pubs, etc. Madness!
its all bad leadership and why the UK numbers are so ducked up compared to Ireland. Thousands have died because of the response.
I find it so bloody frustrating
What exactly is the worst case scenario? No vaccine for a while.. eventually infects 60%+ of the population.. kills several million. and then goes away..
Or keeps coming back with different strains, making no one immune and vaccines ineffective?
Or keeps coming back with different strains, making no one immune and vaccines ineffective?
You misread that. The worst case scenario was a reply to a particular comment.
The rest of my post wasn't underpinned by assuming the worst case scenario will happen.
Yet you still think we're doomed? Okay then, enjoy that thought, I guess. For all we know, we'll have a vaccine ready by spring and distributed on masse by next summer. I'd like to go from that thought right now. And the eventual truth will probably be somewhere in the middle, but I'd rather be positive right now than anything else.
Very enlightening discussion on Radio 5live earlier with Bill Gates wife.
Their foundation is funding research into a CV19 vaccine. And her view is 18 months at very best. And that assumes that it will work and be safe.
She sites Germany as being the 'Gold Standard' in terms of managing the virus.
And her view is that the world is going to have to live with this virus for a very long time to come.
She sees mass testing of the population as the only way to achieve that. And we are going to have to accept that a level of deaths, amongst the most susceptible of the population will inevitably occur.
She rejects the herd immunity issue because of potential mutations of the virus.
I got the distinct impression that she is not a big fan of Donald Trump, in particular his decision to withhold funding to the WHO.
Very smart woman.
Their foundation is funding research into a CV19 vaccine. And her view is 18 months at very best. And that assumes that it will work and be safe.
She sites Germany as being the 'Gold Standard' in terms of managing the virus.
And her view is that the world is going to have to live with this virus for a very long time to come.
She sees mass testing of the population as the only way to achieve that. And we are going to have to accept that a level of deaths, amongst the most susceptible of the population will inevitably occur.
She rejects the herd immunity issue because of potential mutations of the virus.
I got the distinct impression that she is not a big fan of Donald Trump, in particular his decision to withhold funding to the WHO.
Very smart woman.
Yep absolutely, you only have to look at the numbers of people dying in nursing homes to see that the numbers being reported aren't a full picture of the crisis we have going on here.