Rise in deaths toady at 870
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
What exactly does doomed mean?
There is still a Syria, still a Libya, still a Palestine...
Hell, my country lost a huge chunk of population WW I and we are still here.
I don't know if you are originally from England, but if you are, the part of the problem might be that you in the West have been sheltered for too long. Other parts of world have gone through far worse things in recent history and are still here.
the public are expected to be at home; if they're in a park they should be exercising. so i don't really have a problem with the police asking some random guy with an iPhone out standing around filming to move along. how do they know he's a journalist? basically this means we can all just go about our business and if questioned by police use the journalist card.But it's not up to you(Or the police) to decide what should and shouldn't be filmed, right ? He's well with his rights to film the arrest, now you can disagree that it wasn't of huge importance but that clearly wasn't the argument the police were making, they simply wanted him to stop the recording and go home.
Alternatively how about the officers let the person continue to film at a safe distance ? Rather than breaking the social distance they are suppose to be enforcing ? Which would have resulted in a safe outcome for both the officers and the journalist.
It was the officers who broke the socially distancing in order to try to stop him filming(In fact it seems they got out of their van to do this). There was no need for them to do this as the guy filmed hadn't broken any laws.
why should the police allow (to them) some random guy to stand around and film on a phone? we should be indoors or exercising. he was clearly not. now, if he was able to prove he was a journalist, that's a different story. but he didn't do that in the video.
15k daily tests at this stage is pretty bad. Can see Hancock doing a final press conference on April 29th and then being locked away for a month like Priti Patel has been.
He'll find some small print that said he really meant end of May when he said end of April for 100k tests a day.
He'll find some small print that said he really meant end of May when he said end of April for 100k tests a day.
Definitely true. I'm not sure what Ireland is like but it's very typical of the UK to wait until the goverment says jump. Loads of people at work were sensibly saying distancing was coming and that we should adjust to working from home early to prepare but the bosses wouldn't take action until Boris stood on Mount Sinai holding his commandments. It was also seen in a lot of everyday areas too - including noticably the pubs the Friday before lockdown came.
Then there were the parks afterwards, like people couldn't take a frigging common sense approach to avoid overcrowding them.
It's frustrating, as you say.
the point is that future peaks (hopefully) won't be as bad because we will be in a better position by then, we will be testing more, we will be tracking and tracing better, we will have more ICU beds ready to be used, more ventilators. this first peak is being used (again, hopefully) to develop the processes so we're in a better position when the next peaks do take place. we're not doomed.
Yes, I think there would be a big spike in infections and deaths. What I'm saying is I think a lot of people don't really care if that's the case. People will call it selfish etc... , but there's definitely a limit to how long people will stop living their lives for. There will come a point when the majority will say "enough is enough", and it won't really be civil disobedience at that point...
On a side note, rather than suggesting we all have to become less and less natural/human in order to survive, I wish humanity would have a look at our relentless increase in population. We just plonk another Germany down every year and act all shocked at pollution, climate change, inequality, disease..
Actually that's a good thing to keep mind, yeah, I agree. I'm not worried really.
It's more that excessive positivity in situations like this makes uncomfortable.
She didn't though. It was very shallow comparison by an historian. These are some opinions from people actually working in relevant fields
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ided-comparison-uk-ireland-coronavirus-record
They have run the numbers for the case we were everyone gets treatment. The projected total number of deaths in that scenario was just under 700 deaths per day for a year, which is close to current numbers for the past few days.
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thanks. Yes there is some bits such as age of population and the difference in rural populations but the overall message I think was spot on. It ties in with what we were being told here a week or 2 before our friends and family in the Uk. I think that isn’t debatable. As one of the professors says himself
“Dr William Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard University, said Doyle had made some good points, noting that he and many of his colleagues had been concerned about the UK’s early response to coronavirus, but cautioned that it was still too early to draw definitive conclusions”
You can social distance on a bike too.
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I cycle from April - Nov/Dec and get the train from Dec-April. I tend to get sniffles from Dec - April. There could be a huge increase in cyclists though and then Geebs point stands for possible transmission from cyclists to others but still seems a lot more hygenic and health to use the bike.
I could see it being here for a long time but we learn to live with it until it dwindles away.
At the moment it strikes the balance of lethality and ability to spread. As more people get it and become immune, the ability to spread will naturally reduce, so it either weakens to adapt or it dies out.
I'm quite confident you can get at least some immunity from it too. After 2,000,000 infected, ~500k recoveries, if you didn't I'm sure we would have been able confirm at least one reinfection by now.
That's not even close to what I implied or said is it? Like I said personal responsibility. Was it necessary for that journalist to be following the police recording in that instance? No it wasn't. I said it isn't about the legality, its about adapting and using some common sense in these times. What usually happens when someone starts recording police and gets into an argument is that other people SURROUND and FOLLOW, which of course does wonders for social distancing. If those officers were being cnuts by mistreating that female or doing something that was worthy of being recorded by all means record. It was clearly a complete non event and that journalist clearly is the one that actually needs to "mind their own fecking business".
As above, completely missing the point, complete inability to recognise the use of common sense in these times. The journalist was following the officers, your behaviour effects others behaviour, that didn't need to become an incident.But it's not up to you(Or the police) to decide what should and shouldn't be filmed, right ? He's well with his rights to film the arrest, now you can disagree that it wasn't of huge importance but that clearly wasn't the argument the police were making, they simply wanted him to stop the recording and go home.
Alternatively how about the officers let the person continue to film at a safe distance ? Rather than breaking the social distance they are suppose to be enforcing ? Which would have resulted in a safe outcome for both the officers and the journalist.
It was the officers who broke the socially distancing in order to try to stop him filming(In fact it seems they got out of their van to do this
And how exactly were the officers supposed to know he was a journalist? when they were in the vehicle. And even if he is one as claimed, the likelyhood of him carrying around his work ID whilst jogging is extremely low, how can this be verified by the officers.
Maybe i'm wrong but leaving your house during lockdown should be for exercise, buying food etc, no?. I dont remember the bit where you're meant to follow officers around recording them for merely a routine arrest. Where do you draw the line? Presumably by the logic youre inferring because its technically legal, people should basically be out and about following and filming officers carrying out their duties just because they can and officers should not say anything and let it continue. All massively helpful during this time of a global pandemic.
If those are England's figures then that would be 1 in 500 positive tests, ala 1 in 500 who need hospital treatment.
Also if the testing of the Valencia squad was anything to go by (35% tested positive despite not a single member displaying symptoms) then a lot more people just have it without even knowing than people think.
Maybe I overshoot it a bit by comparing the odds to a plane crash but the chances of a young person dying even if they get the virus (getting the virus in anyway not just hospital admissions) is beyond miniscule and it's only a matter of time before they start playing percentages, even the elderly will eventually as a fair number I imagine would prefer one month of freedom as opposed to potentially their last months/years in sevee restrictions if it ultimately came down to Hobson's choice. For another example a freind of mine has cystic fibrosis but despite that has acted like the rest of us for years, his logic is he'd rather die in a blaze of glory then fizzle out (which in itself would almost certainly be a reliteve young age if not earlier) restricting himself, he's being sensible right now but if it ultimately came to a decent amount of freedom at the risk of it being short term or long term restrictions at this level (which will take sizeable chunk of what life he has left anyway) I know exactly what he will choose and I'll take a stab in the dark and say that he's very much not an outliner.
The government need to be working night and day to work out a sustainable strategy that can allow for something of a functioning society at worst, this is truly the part where they earn their money. That's mainly why restrictions will be gradually eased, that way we will get some sort of idea at just what wriggle room we have (ie we may be managing well after stage 1 and 2 but when it gets to stage 3 there's a concerning spike so we need to revert back to stage 2 for now).
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On the last point, I'm not sure what you can do about people having children but I think there will definitely be a re-think about how many things are done.
We can all see the drop in pollution/CO2 emissions etc and I can't see everything going back to the way it was.
Certainly, there'll be less mass commuting to city centres to sit in offices 5 days a week which will ease congestion/pollution and the ever increasing growth of major cities.
I'll be strongly be pushing for working from home 3/4 days a week, depending on the project, once this is done.
Well said. Common sense and basically being a bit fecking reasonable is what’s needed for us all to get through this without killing each other. Gobshites trying to prove a point, just because they can, are incredibly unhelpful.
Would be so fun if this all proves to be only a prelude to WW 3.
Fun is not the word I am looking for, but you get what I mean.
standing still doesn't sound like exercising to me. standing and filming definitely not. are you saying we should all just ignore the government advice in the middle of this pandemic?
Worst case scenario involves no vaccine ever and no long term immunity after infection (or even no short term immunity) combined with more severe disease with each second and subsequent infection (which is what happens with Dengue Fever).
I said yesterday that this would wipe us off the face of the earth in that scenario. I was probably exaggerating. There would come a point where it would get too lethal to be able to keep spreading. Mankind would be basically fecked though. End of days. The Dengue fever thing would be unbelievably bad luck but no vaccine/no long-term immunity is not all that unlikely.
Duration of immunity the key here. Anything less than 12 months and we’ll get annual cycles of this, like seasonal flu. We haven’t followed up anyone who’s recovered for more than a couple of months.
It takes courage to admit to our mistakes, kudos. I'm sure if I ever make a mistake in my lifetime I'll admit to it as well.
The end of humanity would be my guess.
870 is a big number, compared to the last few days but that could well be the bank holiday weekend lag. Expecting a big number tomorrow, too, unfortunately. Still optimistic though that we're seeing the peak.
Do you know roughly what proportion of other infections confer such short term active immunity? It would be quite unusual no?
List of drugs being used to see if they have an effect:
https://www.laboratoryequipment.com...xychloroquine-Leronlimab-Ivermectin-and-More/
https://www.laboratoryequipment.com...xychloroquine-Leronlimab-Ivermectin-and-More/
I think the 1 in 500 odd wasn't based on UK hospitalisations, but it may have been for the under 40 whereas you were talking about people who are under 30. The actual break-down by age is somewhere in the famous imperial paper that I can't be arsed to find again. Regarding the percentage of people not showing symptoms, the best estimates say about 20%. Note that a lot of people test positive symptomless but then later on develop symptoms. If I recall that's what they observed from the cruiseship data, as well as the data from Japanese citizens flying from Wuhan. In South Korea, they reckon it's 20%. So the UK data is missing 1/5 to 1/3 who are asymptomatic plus actual sick people who aren't tested. That's why the numbers from the guardian article posted earlier that started this discussion was adjusted accordingly.
I agree with your second paragraph. Perhaps they will also try track, trace, and isolate the vulnerable approach.
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That would be a mistake.
If all of that was confirmed to be true, there would certainly be a complete global 14-day lockdown. And some countries would actually be able to enforce it (shoot on sight when seen on the street).
You can of course but it’s something to be aware off when everyone starts to cycle to work in cities. The cycle lanes will be busier
You know, I actually have no idea! Will google and revert...
Quick google reveals that an example of a virus known to generate only short-term immunity would be the coronavirus (i.e. the one that causes the common cold). So that's not ideal
EDIT: Short term immunity only with SARS (the original) and MERS too. So I'd say it looks pretty unlikely we'll get long-term immunity after infection with SARS-CoV2. Feck knows we could do with catching a break though!
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I have a question for all like-minded people drowning in affluence.
Since my family hardly gets out these days, from what diseases are we now being protected in our hygienic paradise? Can we get the cold? The flu? Can we get any viral disease whatsoever? Can flies, mosquitoes or cockroaches spread viral infections?
Do we now turn our attention to those pesky bacteria?
Since my family hardly gets out these days, from what diseases are we now being protected in our hygienic paradise? Can we get the cold? The flu? Can we get any viral disease whatsoever? Can flies, mosquitoes or cockroaches spread viral infections?
Do we now turn our attention to those pesky bacteria?
It's not even 15k people yet, which is the worrying element. Which is meaning some people are getting tested twice a day & they're counting that as a test. It's been at the 13-14k people for the last 7 days, no sign of improvement or that moving forward.