SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

11101

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Sounds a good plan, but struggling to see how that would be viable in London with the tube. The queues would be huge and it would be risky, as a lot of the stations are built in places that can't accommodate massive two metre spaced queues, eg on major roads etc...Would need to be a massively staggered return to work over weeks potentially, maybe with the young and healthy first, then those in their 40s, 50s, 60s etc...No quick way out of this I can see.
One of the rules is to have staggered shift patterns so people are not all commuting together, and the licenses required to open will mean a lot of companies will have to keep people at home. It won't be back to normal by any means.

Italy is getting a good idea of where and how the virus transmits by now. Manufacturing, construction and real estate are considered low risk. Commerce, sport and land travel are medium risk. Air travel and health services are high risk.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Sounds a good plan, but struggling to see how that would be viable in London with the tube. The queues would be huge and it would be risky, as a lot of the stations are built in places that can't accommodate massive two metre spaced queues, eg on major roads etc...Would need to be a massively staggered return to work over weeks potentially, maybe with the young and healthy first, then those in their 40s, 50s, 60s etc...No quick way out of this I can see.
Yeah I'd imagine so. I don't see why employers can't take the intiative here and start changing their working hours. What I mean is, it's not written in stone that every officer worker needs to be in the office from 9am-5pm. Why can't they do the exact same job from 11am-7pm instead? 10am-6pm? If employers started to be a bit more flexible it could mean less people cramming onto certain tubes/trains/buses. My employer is already talking about doing this once we're allowed to return to the workplace - staggering people's hours so that 50% of the office is always empty, coming to an agreement with each individual about what hours would work best for them, are there any specific trains/buses that make them nervous due to how busy they are etc.


EDIT - 1101 above me just said the same thing.
 

sullydnl

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Ugh, I'd murder a pint of Guinness right now. Hopefully they'll be allowed open in some capacity over the summer. limited numbers, beer gardens etc.
I guess the problem is that even if you have limited numbers social distancing will definitely go out the window a few pints in. More so than restaurants, which would maybe have a better chance of opening.

Plus given the queues for shops, can you imagine the queues to get in to limited capacity pubs on a Saturday?
 

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Ugh, I'd murder a pint of Guinness right now. Hopefully they'll be allowed open in some capacity over the summer. limited numbers, beer gardens etc.
I doubt it's just a question of capacity and even that might be an insurmountable issue, considering I just read that a German state demands people to keep a 50 meter distance before eating ice cream. Think about how pubs clean their glasses, they basically just give them a quick dunk in the water, everything is basically served in open containers and alcohol makes people careless and stupid. I think the best you can hope for is bottled beer.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Sounds a good plan, but struggling to see how that would be viable in London with the tube. The queues would be huge and it would be risky, as a lot of the stations are built in places that can't accommodate massive two metre spaced queues, eg on major roads etc...Would need to be a massively staggered return to work over weeks potentially, maybe with the young and healthy first, then those in their 40s, 50s, 60s etc...No quick way out of this I can see.
One of the rules is to have staggered shift patterns so people are not all commuting together, and the licenses required to open will mean a lot of companies will have to keep people at home. It won't be back to normal by any means.
I don’t think anyone who’s been able to do their job from home should - or will be allowed to - return to their office again when current lockdown is eased. And that will likely be the status quo for the next year or two.
 

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I mean, pubs are pretty low down the pecking order in terms of importance and priority I know (and I love a drink), but if this is true then I think we can safely say that we'll possibly lose pubs for good. As in, the vast majority of them. And when this is all over, starting up a pub will be seen as a dangerous proposition because 'something like this could happen again' and it will all have been for nothing.
Time heals, people forget. We're social creatures. It's not like humanity stopped socialising after the plagues or the Spanish flu.
 

Don't Kill Bill

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I mean, pubs are pretty low down the pecking order in terms of importance and priority I know (and I love a drink), but if this is true then I think we can safely say that we'll possibly lose pubs for good. As in, the vast majority of them. And when this is all over, starting up a pub will be seen as a dangerous proposition because 'something like this could happen again' and it will all have been for nothing.
Its a sizable fraction of the economy though if you consider all mass gatherings, restaurants and events.

What is a football club worth if you can't ever play in front of a crowd?
 

Massive Spanner

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I guess the problem is that even if you have limited numbers social distancing will definitely go out the window a few pints in. More so than restaurants, which would maybe have a better chance of opening.

Plus given the queues for shops, can you imagine the queues to get in to limited capacity pubs on a Saturday?
Yeah but ... My Guinness :(
 

Snafu17

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I guess the problem is that even if you have limited numbers social distancing will definitely go out the window a few pints in. More so than restaurants, which would maybe have a better chance of opening.

Plus given the queues for shops, can you imagine the queues to get in to limited capacity pubs on a Saturday?
I guess they could just set up a system on their website where you can reserve your slot. Or you just phone in. Businesses will have to adapt if they're going to survive.

Serving alcohol to drunk people is technically supposed to be illegal anyway, at least where I live.
 

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I mean, pubs are pretty low down the pecking order in terms of importance and priority I know (and I love a drink), but if this is true then I think we can safely say that we'll possibly lose pubs for good. As in, the vast majority of them. And when this is all over, starting up a pub will be seen as a dangerous proposition because 'something like this could happen again' and it will all have been for nothing.
There will be astroturf movements starting in the UK soon about opening up the country, targeted at the people who voted for Brexit. Similar to the "grassroot" AKA astroturf movement going on in USA now aimed at the conservatives/Trump supporters.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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I don’t think anyone who’s been able to do their job from home should - or will be allowed to - return to their office again when current lockdown is eased. And that will likely be the status quo for the next year or two.

We are going to be to an extent, once lockdown ends. I work for a university, WFH now of course.

It's going to be a phased return, by all accounts. So 2 days a week in the office, with people taking it in turns each week so only half the team is in the office at one time and can socially distance. I think one of the main things is that some of my colleagues haven't been so fortunate and have been having to go to work daily in this current climate - there's obviously some feeling that this is not a fair situation, so the sooner the university can try levelling the play field a little, they're going to try. I think if you're considered at risk (maybe one of my team), you won't be expected to go in. I'll be one of the first expected to return to the office part-time (30s, good health, no children/family/childcare issues).
 

Sky1981

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Sounds a good plan, but struggling to see how that would be viable in London with the tube. The queues would be huge and it would be risky, as a lot of the stations are built in places that can't accommodate massive two metre spaced queues, eg on major roads etc...Would need to be a massively staggered return to work over weeks potentially, maybe with the young and healthy first, then those in their 40s, 50s, 60s etc...No quick way out of this I can see.
They can do male female only days.

That make sure and even half alternately going out.

Kinda like the odds even plate number only
 

Pagh Wraith

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I doubt it's just a question of capacity and even that might be an insurmountable issue, considering I just read that a German state demands people to keep a 50 meter distance before eating ice cream. Think about how pubs clean their glasses, they basically just give them a quick dunk in the water, everything is basically served in open containers and alcohol makes people careless and stupid. I think the best you can hope for is bottled beer.
The beer gardens are open here, though. And they sell draught beer. You just cannot sit down or consume it within the premises.
 

Jippy

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One of the rules is to have staggered shift patterns so people are not all commuting together, and the licenses required to open will mean a lot of companies will have to keep people at home. It won't be back to normal by any means.

Italy is getting a good idea of where and how the virus transmits by now. Manufacturing, construction and real estate are considered low risk. Commerce, sport and land travel are medium risk. Air travel and health services are high risk.
Staggered shift patterns makes sense, but obviously easier for some businesses to implement than others. I guess one obvious downside is that a lot of older, higher risk people are the business owners and senior managers of companies, who economically it is more important to have back in the business.

They can do male female only days.

That make sure and even half alternately going out.

Kinda like the odds even plate number only
Oh god that sounds awful.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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Happy to have a look, if you provide a link :)
You can get all of the information yourself. Loads of people are churning out content on it.

Sweden is an outlier for a few reasons that may impact approach.

- High numbers of single person dwellings
- 85% of Swedish folks live in villages of 200 people or cities. Large towns don’t seem to be a thing the way they are in most European spots.
- 6 out of ten Swedes do not live in a Urban system (50,000+ people)

This is 2018 Swedish Census data. Nobody is making stuff up, but evidently some values will shift.

Edit : BBC article links to figures of over 50%

Link
 
Last edited:

Skills

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Staggered shift patterns makes sense, but obviously easier for some businesses to implement than others. I guess one obvious downside is that a lot of older, higher risk people are the business owners and senior managers of companies, who economically it is more important to have back in the business.


Oh god that sounds awful.
The question a lot of businesses need to ask - how many people do they really need on site? I mean, if there are people who are just as effective WFH - why not just let them continue? And then for everyone else - check how frequently everyone else needs to be in?
 

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I'm sure some have thought about this, but there is a chance that in a few decades people might finally understand why 20% develop serious symptoms. If it isn't viral load, then it might be linked to a myriad possibilities.

Maybe if enough analysis is done on those who are asymptomatic, a thread might be found that links all those people. What does 80% of the population eat? Or drink? Or do? It could be logical in hindsight or it could be downright crazy! I wonder...
 

yumtum

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Italy is outlining today how to start coming out of lockdown from 4 May:

- increasing public transport services so distance can be kept between people, and everybody needs to have their temperature scanned before boarding a bus or a train.
Imagine that in the UK? My other half gets a train from Bridgend to Cardiff 6 days a week (well, when she was working) and half the times the trains are randomly cancelled on short notice, with them putting two buses on to replace a train full of people commuting from a small town to the capital, missing smaller stations on the way.

The infrastructure in the UK is a joke, can't see the UK coming up with anything remotely good enough to start shuttling people to work from smaller towns to major cities.
 

Maagge

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Sweden is an interesting one for sure. Being Danish I like to compare it to here where we closed a lot of stuff down fairly early.
Sweden has carried out more than 20k tests less than Denmark but ended up with almost twice as many cases (14385 cases to 7515 cases). That's in a population that's almost twice as big. So they're dipping into a larger pool of people fewer times and getting out a much higher number of positives. If you were testing at random you'd say they have a lot of cases that hasn't been reported yet. (Of course no one's really testing at random though)
They have almost three times as many deaths as Denmark (1540 to 355 deaths), and many more in serious/critical condition (450 to 84). So currently (and this will change) ~10.7 % of the people testing positive end up dying (but then they'll predominantly test people who are quite ill compared to here). In Denmark ~4.7 % of people testing positive pass away.
However, if you look at the amount of cases per capita (keeping in mind they are testing less than half the people we are per capita) it isn't that grim. They have 1424 cases per million people whereas we have 1297 per million. This could be due to them having a population density of 23/km^2 where we have more than five times as many people per km^2 (and of course fewer tests).

So yeah, I think their approach probably hasn't been as bad as it would have been elsewhere (at this point), but they most likely have a lot more cases they aren't aware of compared to here. Although, again, population density might make the relative amount of unreported cases lower than somewhere like Denmark.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I'm sure some have thought about this, but there is a chance that in a few decades people might finally understand why 20% develop serious symptoms. If it isn't viral load, then it might be linked to a myriad possibilities.

Maybe if enough analysis is done on those who are asymptomatic, a thread might be found that links all those people. What do 80% of the population eat? Or drink? Or do? It could be logical in hindsight or it could be downright crazy! I wonder...
It could be genetic differences. Have heard about household where one parent gets seriously unwell, the other only minor disease, with a similar pattern in their kids. Which could imply heritability of vulnerability.
 

Drawfull

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Yeah I'd imagine so. I don't see why employers can't take the intiative here and start changing their working hours. What I mean is, it's not written in stone that every officer worker needs to be in the office from 9am-5pm. Why can't they do the exact same job from 11am-7pm instead? 10am-6pm? If employers started to be a bit more flexible it could mean less people cramming onto certain tubes/trains/buses. My employer is already talking about doing this once we're allowed to return to the workplace - staggering people's hours so that 50% of the office is always empty, coming to an agreement with each individual about what hours would work best for them, are there any specific trains/buses that make them nervous due to how busy they are etc.


EDIT - 1101 above me just said the same thing.
Whilst I am not a fan, Labour have been promoting a 4 day (or less) week for ages now. In my opinion they can be a bit devil may care with the economy, but in principle, someone somewhere has done the maths and figures that it works. I could see that working, with only one overlap day to severely limit (effectively halve) those commuting. i.e., Half work Mon - half-way through Thursday, the rest, Thursday afternoon til Sunday. Sure that changes the concept of what weekend means, and it could feck over some families if anything like it was adopted, but maybe it's got merit.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Sweden is an interesting one for sure. Being Danish I like to compare it to here where we closed a lot of stuff down fairly early.
Sweden has carried out more than 20k tests less than Denmark but ended up with almost twice as many cases (14385 cases to 7515 cases). That's in a population that's almost twice as big. So they're dipping into a larger pool of people fewer times and getting out a much higher number of positives. If you were testing at random you'd say they have a lot of cases that hasn't been reported yet. (Of course no one's really testing at random though)
They have almost three times as many deaths as Denmark (1540 to 355 deaths), and many more in serious/critical condition (450 to 84). So currently (and this will change) ~10.7 % of the people testing positive end up dying (but then they'll predominantly test people who are quite ill compared to here). In Denmark ~4.7 % of people testing positive pass away.
However, if you look at the amount of cases per capita (keeping in mind they are testing less than half the people we are per capita) it isn't that grim. They have 1424 cases per million people whereas we have 1297 per million. This could be due to them having a population density of 23/km^2 where we have more than five times as many people per km^2 (and of course fewer tests).

So yeah, I think their approach probably hasn't been as bad as it would have been elsewhere (at this point), but they most likely have a lot more cases they aren't aware of compared to here. Although, again, population density might make the relative amount of unreported cases lower than somewhere like Denmark.
I know I’m repeating myself here but you can’t accurately do per capita comparisons. The epidemic doesn’t instantly spread evenly throughout the entire population of a country so dividing the number of cases by the entire population will make outbreaks look worse in countries with small populations and less bad in more populous countries.
 

Maagge

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I know I’m repeating myself here but you can’t accurately do per capita comparisons. The epidemic doesn’t instantly spread evenly throughout the entire population of a country so dividing the number of cases by the entire population will make outbreaks look worse in countries with small populations and less bad in more populous countries.
Oh I know that. I don't think a lot of what I said really hinges on per capita data. It basically makes it look slightly better, but that could essentially be for population density reasons and not because their strategy is great.
 

Alabaster Codify7

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Imagine that in the UK? My other half gets a train from Bridgend to Cardiff 6 days a week (well, when she was working) and half the times the trains are randomly cancelled on short notice, with them putting two buses on to replace a train full of people commuting from a small town to the capital, missing smaller stations on the way.

The infrastructure in the UK is a joke, can't see the UK coming up with anything remotely good enough to start shuttling people to work from smaller towns to major cities.

I get the same train, from further up the line. We get it even worse, because if it leaves Cardiff Central more than 20mins late, it doesn't even go beyond Bridgend so everyone who is going to stations all the way up to Maesteg is essentially punted off the train and we have to either wait in Bridgend for 1hr for the next train to come up, or on rare occasions they have had the time/foresight to order a replacement bus to take us the rest of the way.

I've been to third world countries with FAR more reliable train infra structure than the UK, it's an absolute disgrace for apparently one of the world's 'premier' countries.
 

Fosu-Mens

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Sweden is an interesting one for sure. Being Danish I like to compare it to here where we closed a lot of stuff down fairly early.
Sweden has carried out more than 20k tests less than Denmark but ended up with almost twice as many cases (14385 cases to 7515 cases). That's in a population that's almost twice as big. So they're dipping into a larger pool of people fewer times and getting out a much higher number of positives. If you were testing at random you'd say they have a lot of cases that hasn't been reported yet. (Of course no one's really testing at random though)
They have almost three times as many deaths as Denmark (1540 to 355 deaths), and many more in serious/critical condition (450 to 84). So currently (and this will change) ~10.7 % of the people testing positive end up dying (but then they'll predominantly test people who are quite ill compared to here). In Denmark ~4.7 % of people testing positive pass away.
However, if you look at the amount of cases per capita (keeping in mind they are testing less than half the people we are per capita) it isn't that grim. They have 1424 cases per million people whereas we have 1297 per million. This could be due to them having a population density of 23/km^2 where we have more than five times as many people per km^2 (and of course fewer tests).

So yeah, I think their approach probably hasn't been as bad as it would have been elsewhere (at this point), but they most likely have a lot more cases they aren't aware of compared to here. Although, again, population density might make the relative amount of unreported cases lower than somewhere like Denmark.
To early to tell, but given the restrictions in social movement in place in Denmark for some time compared to in Sweden with bars and nightclubs open, people living as normal etc, there is some reason to believe that they will have different outcomes.

Denmark will most likely start with the dance for the foreseeable future until a vaccine or effective treatment is in place, having been relatively successful with the hammer. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Sweden and Tegnell will soon be asked the question about how much a life is worth? I.e keeping the economy rolling for the sake of £££ instead of a lockdown and a proven strategy for saving lives. Given their loose restrictions and non-aggressive testing, the current status or situation in Sweden can only be verified/gauged 2-3 weeks from now.
 

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It could be genetic differences. Have heard about household where one parent gets seriously unwell, the other only minor disease, with a similar pattern in their kids. Which could imply heritability of vulnerability.
How long does it take to map someone's genetic code? And if it is indeed genetic, can one change someone's DNA? I guess not. I know this sounds silly, but I need to ask.
 

Ludens the Red

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I get the same train, from further up the line. We get it even worse, because if it leaves Cardiff Central more than 20mins late, it doesn't even go beyond Bridgend so everyone who is going to stations all the way up to Maesteg is essentially punted off the train and we have to either wait in Bridgend for 1hr for the next train to come up, or on rare occasions they have had the time/foresight to order a replacement bus to take us the rest of the way.

I've been to third world countries with FAR more reliable train infra structure than the UK, it's an absolute disgrace for apparently one of the world's 'premier' countries.
Too right, the tube is fine but the train, Jesus , the incompetence is staggering. And when you consider the money people are paying for it. It’s amazing that British people take it so well.
 

Jippy

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The question a lot of businesses need to ask - how many people do they really need on site? I mean, if there are people who are just as effective WFH - why not just let them continue? And then for everyone else - check how frequently everyone else needs to be in?
Yeah I guess, while it's preferable to have our team all together in the office, it's not essential, even if wfh is sub-optimal. That's the compromise I suppose and as someone with emphysema, albeit mild, it's probably no bad thing i stay mainly at home.
 

yumtum

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I get the same train, from further up the line. We get it even worse, because if it leaves Cardiff Central more than 20mins late, it doesn't even go beyond Bridgend so everyone who is going to stations all the way up to Maesteg is essentially punted off the train and we have to either wait in Bridgend for 1hr for the next train to come up, or on rare occasions they have had the time/foresight to order a replacement bus to take us the rest of the way.

I've been to third world countries with FAR more reliable train infra structure than the UK, it's an absolute disgrace for apparently one of the world's 'premier' countries.
It really is crazy, it would make more sense for her to go to the Pencoed station as she can drive to there without paying for parking, but there were more than a few occasions where nothing showed up and everyone one the platform were left scrambling for ways to get into Cardiff - now I have to take her and pick her up from Bridgend.

I went to Hong Kong last year, and obviously not a third world country, their transport was something to be admired, if you missed one train then another came like 1-2 minutes later.
 

do.ob

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Ah well, so I guess it's not too dissimilar from what the ice cream shops are doing. I'm not sure that will work outside of beer gardens and parks though. If your regular pub in the middle of the street tried that, even if you don't allow customers inside they would congregate on the sidewalks around the pub. To some degree you already see that with alcoholics and kiosks.
 

Maagge

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To early to tell, but given the restrictions in social movement in place in Denmark for some time compared to in Sweden with bars and nightclubs open, people living as normal etc, there is some reason to believe that they will have different outcomes.

Denmark will most likely start with the dance for the foreseeable future until a vaccine or effective treatment is in place, having been relatively successful with the hammer. https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Sweden and Tegnell will soon be asked the question about how much a life is worth? I.e keeping the economy rolling for the sake of £££ instead of a lockdown and a proven strategy for saving lives. Given their loose restrictions and non-aggressive testing, the current status or situation in Sweden can only be verified/gauged 2-3 weeks from now.
Yeah we're definitely about to start dancing here. Most schools opened on Wednesday for up to and including fifth grade (~650k pupils), more will follow this week after needing a bit more time to prepare. Some businesses are starting to open again. At the briefing the health guy put a lot of emphasis on the fact that with the gradual opening we'd still stay at an R of around 0.8 according to their models, of course under the assumption that people will keep up social distancing.
 

Fosu-Mens

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Yeah we're definitely about to start dancing here. Most schools opened on Wednesday for up to and including fifth grade (~650k pupils), more will follow this week after needing a bit more time to prepare. Some businesses are starting to open again. At the briefing the health guy put a lot of emphasis on the fact that with the gradual opening we'd still stay at an R of around 0.8 according to their models, of course under the assumption that people will keep up social distancing.
As long as you don't have any large gatherings with a massive spread of the virus, aggressive testing and common sense and restrictions, you guys should be relatively safe.
 

Sky1981

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Staggered shift patterns makes sense, but obviously easier for some businesses to implement than others. I guess one obvious downside is that a lot of older, higher risk people are the business owners and senior managers of companies, who economically it is more important to have back in the business.


Oh god that sounds awful.
Very easy to police though. Better than all the certificate and time stamp stuff.
 

Kag

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Too right, the tube is fine but the train, Jesus , the incompetence is staggering. And when you consider the money people are paying for it. It’s amazing that British people take it so well.
I’ve argued this for a long time. The UK is full of people (and this isn’t their fault) that have never really left their own village. They’ve been conditioned into accepting dogshit in relation to public services.

Our public transport infrastructure is horrendous given the size of our economy. I’ve been to developing countries that have better telecommunications infrastructure. Yet in the North East of England there are several towns and villages that struggle to maintain a 3G connection. There are some smaller villages that are in complete blackness dependent on your phone network.

Spend only a little time and Europe and East Asia and you’ll really come to terms with how far we are behind in some aspects of our services.