SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Wolverine]

There's some harrowing and not at all hyperbolic reads here from an ICU doctor at Charing Cross Hospital, read all 5 entries.
https://icudiary.com/covid-1/?fbclid=IwAR13h59TGHjKoHR_zaQFIT7HBWjiCnwfQh7dThtxFU-28AXJkv8T0fOCQjw

Incidentally in one of those entries the LUCAS machine which was just being trialled when I was working in CCU, this is what a resuscitation attempt looks like

 

[worldgonemad]

In most ways the UK response is turning out to be the worst in Europe and possibly worst in the world if you consider how big the US is . This after the fact that the UK had a couple of extra weeks on the other European countries. Death per million population might still be not as bad as other countries but we are still 2 weeks behind so that will change.

I was going through the UK death registration statistics and last year in the 4 weeks of April the total deaths registered were about 42000 with no week going above 11k . This year it was 16k, 18k,22k and 22k in the 4 weeks which is a total of 78k in April . So much for all the discussion about how a lot of people would have died anyway argument. UK will end with 50k+ deaths from the first wave and it's genuinely sad to see the politicians trying to take any credit from this

Im really not sure how you come to the conclusion that the uk is doing worse in most ways in the world. How on earth do you come to that?
Yes, in hindsight we could have done better here and there, as could almost every country.

Regarding the excess deaths, those figures are sobering. Have you looked at other countries excess deaths also? Have you taken into account how accurately other countries measure deaths, or the medical systems in the other countries? How about from an economic point of view? From what i understand, our financial help from the government is among the best in the world, a figure of 8 billion per month being paid to adults in this country was quoted earlier, against an nhs budget of 11 billion per month.

We could have done better, in hindsight as could every country, starting with China for a start, but to say we have coped the worst in the world is a huge over exaggeration.

 

[ivaldo]

You wanna answer a question with a question?

The word frenzy implies the media are being irrational if they talk about the UK having the highest number of deaths in Europe. I'd say it's a national scandal, not a media frenzy.

You evidently do. That depends if your question is actually relevant to what I said. It's OK to admit you misconstrued what I said without doubling down on being an arse.

 

[Dante]

And yet I see feck all on the media or news there about how bad it is, even on the BBC it's barely mentioned. Yet when Italy and Spain were at their peak all your saw was stories about the horror over there. Shocking.

It's the top new story on the BBC. Most media outlets are leading with it.

 

[Wibble]

There's been interesting development with regards to antibody tests
https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2020-05-03.htm

Roche mentioning theirs have specificity and sensitivity of nearly 100% each (14 days post-PCR)!
Which I've been conditioned with all the badness that has come out of COVID to be firmly in the "too good to be true category" but looking forward to its evaluation.

Apparently its been evaluated by Public Health England with initial results expected by the end of the week with aim to start role out mid-May onwards. FDA are looking at it to. Definitely something to watch out for.

Claims are that serological screening machines (called MosaiQ) which have European regulatory approval each can test up to 3000 per day with results in 35 minutes and with 12 machines ready that would be around 250000/week if its works, more here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52529294

Hope that is true - some good news

 

[Pogue Mahone]

There's been interesting development with regards to antibody tests
https://www.roche.com/media/releases/med-cor-2020-05-03.htm

Roche mentioning theirs have specificity and sensitivity of nearly 100% each (14 days post-PCR)!
Which I've been conditioned with all the badness that has come out of COVID to be firmly in the "too good to be true category" but looking forward to its evaluation.

Apparently its been evaluated by Public Health England with initial results expected by the end of the week with aim to start role out mid-May onwards. FDA are looking at it to. Definitely something to watch out for.

Claims are that serological screening machines (called MosaiQ) which have European regulatory approval each can test up to 3000 per day with results in 35 minutes and with 12 machines ready that would be around 250000/week if its works, more here
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-52529294

Needs venous sample. So no testing without phlebotomy. Good news all the same.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

This is when we’re opening up the country. Restaurants, movie theaters, hair salons, churches etc. opened up May 1st in Oklahoma. The number of new cases in the US on the right is still rising.

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[Suedesi]

They got a smaller dose of virus in late Feb-early March. The most important factor in all these comparisons. I mean, surely fecking Belarus tells you that? Their leader still denies corona is even an issue.

Why did New Jersey do so much better than New York?

Why did Massachusetts do even better still?

Also, why is that Belgium number on the map so incorrect?

New Jersey is not doing so much better than New York - adjusting for population it's hard to tell the difference.
Massachusetts is not doing well either.

I have also graphed total deaths, and added a few other states for comparative purposes. California and Washington (that's Seattle, not DC) because that's where the first cases were observed and they locked out hard. They've done well. I also added Florida - and I thought due to Floridiots and old people the death toll would be much higher

 

[Suedesi]

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[Wibble]

New Jersey is not doing so much better than New York - adjusting for population it's hard to tell the difference.
Massachusetts is not doing well either.

I have also graphed total deaths, and added a few other states for comparative purposes. California and Washington (that's Seattle, not DC) because that's where the first cases were observed and they locked out hard. They've done well. I also added Florida - and I thought due to Floridiots and old people the death toll would be much higher

This video is good to help people understand graphs

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

Im really not sure how you come to the conclusion that the uk is doing worse in most ways in the world. How on earth do you come to that?
Yes, in hindsight we could have done better here and there, as could almost every country.

Regarding the excess deaths, those figures are sobering. Have you looked at other countries excess deaths also? Have you taken into account how accurately other countries measure deaths, or the medical systems in the other countries? How about from an economic point of view? From what i understand, our financial help from the government is among the best in the world, a figure of 8 billion per month being paid to adults in this country was quoted earlier, against an nhs budget of 11 billion per month.

We could have done better, in hindsight as could every country, starting with China for a start, but to say we have coped the worst in the world is a huge over exaggeration.

Well because UK is currently at the second highest number of deaths in the world and that too when other European countries daily death numbers are now much below us so UK is likely to have a much bigger number. I think the whole thing about who reports what in terms of deaths is just an easy excuse really. I find it hard to believe that the UK is somehow following a reporting system that is majorly superior to other European countries. The whole idea of two weeks extra to deal with it can not be ignored as well . UK allowed sporting events to happen with fans around . Atleti fans couldn't go to their own stadiums but came to Liverpool.



I do agree with you in terms of the financial support stuff and the government deserves credit for that but otherwise it's been really bad . Even if you argue that it's not the worst, I don't think that anyone can argue that it's been amongst the worst

 

[arnie_ni]

Honestly I know ALOT of people treating this as a big holiday whilst being paid. Defer your mortgage at the same time and some people are up financially in the short term (I’m ignoring interest added to the mortgage). I have to say I wish I was furloughed as working 5 days a week at home on my own absolutely sucks. Even more so when so many colleagues received 100% pay for the last two months as work guaranteed this before the furlough scheme was announced. And they can work else where if they really wanted to.

The scheme was ill thought out in my view but they had to do something before the nation panicked about their financial position. The next step is that self employed should only make a claim ‘if’ they have been unable to work during the last 3 months. Who exactly is going to turn down 3 months taxable profit? And who from HMRC is going to check if they also earnt money in these 3 months whilst making a claim? There will be so many people taking advantage of this scheme that is going to cause a colossal amount of national debt.

On the last paragraph hmrc are going to come down hard on all this. Any business that has claimed furlough or claimed the self employed check will be investigated.

They'll check billable hours, invoices, phone bills, electric bills etc etc to claw as much back as possible.

I know businesses claiming furlough that are still working in an office and hmrc will nail them easily when they get investigated.

 

[Ludens the Red]

And yet I see feck all on the media or news there about how bad it is, even on the BBC it's barely mentioned. Yet when Italy and Spain were at their peak all your saw was stories about the horror over there. Shocking.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news...sdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-11983714

Been all over the news at the top of the hour too. You definitely been watching British media?

 

[Revan]

Jesus wept i never realized prof Ferguson's modelling/ prediction record was so tragic. For context this were his and his college's predictions on previous epidemic's/pandemic's.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/six-questions-that-neil-ferguson-should-be-asked

Am i missing something? How the fecking hell is that guy still in a job let alone being trusted to help make decisions that will shape this country for generations.

The first two questions actually are not that bad.

H5N1 influenza has a mortality rate of over 60%. Luckily, it does not spread from person to person. However, there were at least three documented cases that it happened, so there is always the risk that the virus can mutate and spread more efficiently (there is also a research paper that shows that the virus needs only 5 mutations to be airborne). Considering that all influenza viruses are very contagious (though not as much as coronaviruses), is H5N1 or H7N9 (over 30% mortality rate) go human to human (while being only as infectious as different types of flu we get like H1N1, H3N2 or B type) then it is gonna be a civilization destruction event. His calculation was always based on it going human to human (or course 200m people cannot die from it if it only spreads from birds to humans).

About the second question he got it wrong, I believe everyone got it wrong. Initially it was believed that the particular strain of H1N1 which caused the swine flu has a mortality rate of 1-2% (bear in mind, it is the same virus as the one who caused the Spanish flu which killed 40-100m people back then). The flu shots (even for regular strains of it) are not very efficient (only 40-50% I believe). So, I assume that him (and most of experts) thought that the virus is gonna be as deadly as the version responsible for the Spanish flu. Fortunately, this was not the case and the calculation was totally wrong.

I am not very familiar with questions 3-5.

 

[Carolina Red]

Isn't that exactly what you shouldn't do?

CDC tells us to contact a doctor and see if we can get tested.

My wife got sent home from work at the ICU and sent to get tested the next day.

Please don’t follow this terrible advice and go to a doctor with this fever. You need to self isolate and follow the UK guidance online. Mods need to delete this post.

Sorry for triggering you.

 

[arnie_ni]

CDC tells us to contact a doctor and see if we can get tested.

My wife got sent home from work at the ICU and sent to get tested the next day.

Sorry for triggering you.

Its different advice in the UK, Carolina.

 

[Carolina Red]

Its different advice in the UK, Carolina.

I see that now. Actually, I saw it when @Rado_N responded.

Just think somebody might have over reacted a bit.

 

[roykeane19]

If the UK has the highest rate in europe, with the economy gone to shit with 2 months of lockdown, whats the point, all it shows is either lockdown isnt the right solution, or else it was done too late.
Personallly I find all the world locking their countries up, shows the power the governemtn has over controlling people in the future, and this is a large and succesful test, that didnt even require much of a military prescence to implement

Along with the scaremongering that has people walking on the road to avoid walking past people on the footpath, shows how terrified and easy it is to cause mass anxiety and fear in a general populace

Im not saying this covid is a hoax, but its at the same time a great way for government to experiment how easy it is to control their populations. Also I dont agree with this mass lockdown.

Just seen an article Sweden and one other scndinavian country were compared, sweden are not doing a lockdown, and other cuntry was, and both have a similiar R rate.

Plus there is no scientific evidence that a lockdown is beficial, everyone is doing it just because other countries did it, no one has any idea what they are doing with corona, theyre just making it up as they go along, and sadly this will have severe economic and unemployment repercussions on the general populace

 

[SalfordRed18]

If the UK has the highest rate in europe, with the economy gone to shit with 2 months of lockdown, whats the point, all it shows is either lockdown isnt the right solution, or else it was done too late.
Personallly I find all the world locking their countries up, shows the power the governemtn has over controlling people in the future, and this is a large and succesful test, that didnt even require much of a military prescence to implement

Along with the scaremongering that has people walking on the road to avoid walking past people on the footpath, shows how terrified and easy it is to cause mass anxiety and fear in a general populace

Im not saying this covid is a hoax, but its at the same time a great way for government to experiment how easy it is to control their populations. Also I dont agree with this mass lockdown.

Just seen an article Sweden and one other scndinavian country were compared, sweden are not doing a lockdown, and other cuntry was, and both have a similiar R rate.

Plus there is no scientific evidence that a lockdown is beficial, everyone is doing it just because other countries did it, no one has any idea what they are doing with corona, theyre just making it up as they go along, and sadly this will have severe economic and unemployment repercussions on the general populace

How could it be scaremongering if the UK has the highest death toll in spite of the lockdown?

The lockdown isn't designed to stop covid 19, it's designed to slow down the spread, so our health resources aren't stretched and more people who could have survived, die.

 

[Wibble]

Please don’t follow this terrible advice and go to a doctor with this fever. You need to self isolate and follow the UK guidance online. Mods need to delete this post.

Don't you have drive through testing centers? Must be bad if you can't get a test on demand.

 

[TMDaines]

Sorry for triggering you.

You're either ignorantly or willingly providing incorrect advice to people, and then mocking others for being triggered when correcting you? What an absolute dick.

For someone who has been banging on about his significant other needing PPE to do their job, you'd think you might know better than getting members of the public with suspected COVID-19 to make unnecessary contact with healthcare workers.

 

[TMDaines]

Don't you have drive through testing centers? Must be bad if you can't get a test on demand.

Here's testing eligibility for England: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested

Here's stay at home guidance; https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Essentially you are just expected to isolate, self care and not get tested, unless you have a particular need for a test or your symptoms get worse:

If you have coronavirus (COVID-19) symptoms:

• do not go to a GP surgery, pharmacy or hospital
• you do not need to contact 111 to tell them you’re staying at home
• testing for coronavirus (COVID-19) is not needed if you’re staying at home

For the love of God though, don't just rock up to a hospital or GP surgery unannounced. You shouldn't do that with any viral fever, let alone COVID-19. You could literally kill people.

 

[DVG7]

Just found out my grandmother has Covid and has had for a week, she’s 87 and in a care home.

 

[Wibble]

Needs venous sample. So no testing without phlebotomy. Good news all the same.

Phlebotomy. I like that word. Sounds like the removal of idiots from your life (with the removal of one letter).

 

[Carolina Red]

You're either ignorantly or willingly providing incorrect advice to people, and then mocking others for being triggered when correcting you? What an absolute dick.

For someone who has been banging on about his significant other needing PPE to do their job, you'd think you might know better than getting members of the public with suspected COVID-19 to make unnecessary contact with healthcare workers.

You really are sensitive, aren’t you?

The goddamn CDC says to contact your doctor and get tested. They literally just did that to my wife. Rado spends time in the US and I figured he was here.

Have a word with yourself, asshole.

 

[Wibble]

Essentially you are just expected to isolate, self care and not get tested, unless you have a particular need for a test or your symptoms get worse:

Wow. So the UK figures are likely far far higher if you are doing so little testing.

 

[arnie_ni]

Here's testing eligibility for England: https://www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-getting-tested

Here's stay at home guidance; https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...-with-possible-coronavirus-covid-19-infection

Essentially you are just expected to isolate, self care and not get tested, unless you have a particular need for a test or your symptoms get worse:



For the love of God though, don't just rock up to a hospital or GP surgery unannounced. You shouldn't do that with any viral fever, let alone COVID-19. You could literally kill people.

Its different in America, daines

 

[sglowrider]

GOP Ohio state lawmaker refuses to wear face mask because faces are the 'likeness of God'

A Republican Ohio state representative cited his religious beliefs to explain why he would not wear a mask as recommended by Gov. Mike DeWine (R) to help limit the spread of the novel coronavirus.

“This is not the entire world,” state Rep. Nino Vitale wrote in a lengthy Facebook post on Monday morning. “This is the greatest nation on earth founded on Judeo-Christian Principles.”

“One of those principles is that we are all created in the image and likeness of God. That image is seen the most by our face. I will not wear a mask,” he continued.

 

[Suedesi]

This video is good to help people understand graphs

Linear scale

 

[Suedesi]

I can't believe people need still to be told about face masks during a pandemic. There were a couple of dimwits here debating the efficacy of facemasks about a month ago...

 

[Suedesi]

You can go even more detailed than that. It's now thought the Atalanta v Valencia game on 19th February is the spark that created the storm in Italy and Spain. Bergamo (Atalanta's hometown) is a big Milan commuter town and quickly became the worst affected place in Europe after that, and the virus travelled back to Spain with the Valencia team and it's fans.

Same thing is speculated to have happened in Liverpool with the Madrid game.

I wonder if we can eventually trace back to specific events in those other cities.

How many Valencia fans were there for the San Siro leg? And was/is Valencia (the town) disproportionately affected versus other towns / regions in Spain?

Same questions could be asked about Liverpool I suppose.

And why Bergamo hit so hard in the first place, is it a town that has a lot of traffic with Wuhan?

 

[Wibble]

Linear scale

Almost as if an early lockdown works

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Holy shit, they cannot be this stupid. This is just so fundamentally dishonest it's terrifying:

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[Charlie Foley]

Holy shit, they cannot be this stupid. This is just so fundamentally dishonest it's terrifying:

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Wouldn’t a cubic fit go below zero in a few weeks? Negative deaths?

is there ANY legitimate reason for using this model (so not “it makes us look good” or “the last trend was down so it’s going down”)?

why did the colour change and the line change from dashes to dots?

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I don’t know if it’s news, but it is peer-reviewed proof on things we suspected. Because of data studied in samples worldwide, they confirmed it not have jumped to humans earlier than late last year. So the hope that some strain was floating around for longer and many more people have been exposed than suspected is gone. No true anecdotes about a weird flu that some guy had in October or something then.

But it was in Europe, America, and other places earlier than expected, and the first actual cases were earlier than what has been confirmed. Though finding ‘patient zero’ in these areas would be a fruitless endeavor.

CNN

 

[VP89]

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You can tell by the tone of his tweet he's scare mongering.

 

[Atze-Peng]

https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8

Apparently it seems to get confirmed what many people already suspected in late January/early February

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Wouldn’t a cubic fit go below zero in a few weeks? Negative deaths?

is there ANY legitimate reason for using this model (so not “it makes us look good” or “the last trend was down so it’s going down”)?

why did the colour change and the line change from dashes to dots?

Yeah, it would, or went to negative deaths at some point in the past eg:

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It's transparent curve fitting in order to get the outcome you want. Has no predictive power whatsoever. We know it's wrong from the single datapoint we received yesterday lifting deaths back up to 2.4k. We know the historical IHME model is wrong because their predictions for deaths by August change every update only to once again be overtaken by reality within a week or two. Yet these are the predictions the US government chooses to go with to make policy decisions? They can't be that stupid.

The US government is making policy decisions first, then picking a graph to fit that policy second.

Edit: No idea why it goes to dots, but the idea that the US could be approaching zero deaths a day by the 16th of this month is spectacularly dumb.

 

[Abizzz]

https://apnews.com/bf685dcf52125be54e030834ab7062a8

Apparently it seems to get confirmed what many people already suspected in late January/early February

If only they had any sort of credibility left. (I am not saying the allegations aren't true, but that those raising the allegations have other reasons for doing so than thinking the alleged is really culpibable of anything substantial)

 

[Wednesday at Stoke]

I flew through Paris for Christmas vacation and got terribly sick with breathing trouble and dry cough. Now I don't know what to think considering France apparently found a case predating that. Breathing issues aren't uncommon to me though, I have trouble when I go from low pollution areas to high pollution and I chalked it to that. I was also hugging and kissing my family and friends over the holidays and none of them got anything.