SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Sky1981]

These are probably some of the reasons why the government of my country, Indonesia, in the last minute decided to go against a lockdown and opted for a large-scale enforced social distancing in so-called 'danger zones' such as Jakarta instead. People living in poverty, to which there are millions here, are stressed enough without these countermeasures let alone a full lockdown. Here, offices but a few exceptions for several key sectors, factories, retail stores and shopping malls are closed; social, cultural and religious events are banned; restaurants and street hawkers (a major source of livelihood for many) are takeaway only; banks, supermarkets, most informal markets (another very large source of livelihood for many) and corner shops are open with social distancing protocols in place. Intra-province public transport is open whilst inter-province travel is banned for everyone unless for extraordinary circumstances and this requires a special permit. Those measures have fortunately slowed down the growth of corona cases and deaths in Jakarta, although testing hasn't been up to par.

I just don't think there's a one-size-fits-all solution in slowing down the spread of virus. Lockdowns in general help, of course, but it's not the be all and all. Take Jakarta. You have hundreds of thousands, most likely even millions, of people here living in squalid conditions in our shantytowns. Folks there earn their meagre wages daily, a twenty square meter room is often shared with five to six people and toilets are public. How are you going to impose a lockdown for an extended period of time when taking such circumstances into account? Without sacrificing people's livelihoods and probably even lives, you can't, because the government of a developing economy like Indonesia just don't have enough money to support the livelihoods of millions for an extended period of time. This is why I've always been sceptical when governments (especially of developing countries) shout lockdown left and right without considering its long-term implications.

As difficult to implement as it may be, I'm proponent of a more balanced approach for this reason: a 'soft' lockdown and coupled with an overzealous test, track and isolate regime, but then again different countries are different! In Indonesia's case -- despite the fact that our government, in my opinion, has done the right thing by opting against a full lockdown -- needs to do a lot more in the testing, tracking and isolating front.

I wonder what @Sky1981 has to say about this.

Jokowi, in my own opinion faces a very daunting task.

I see several problems with lock down:
1. If it's a lockdown, you need punishment or some sort of deterrent along with it. We don't and can't spare the valuable manpower.
2. Jokowi probably sees that the majority of Indonesians actually quite obedient (knowing us very well, I'd say this time we're quite obedient) and he can choose not to enforce the lockdown.
3. If it's a total lock down then the government has to provide food, most Indonesians lives on day to day paycheck, you can't force hungry people to stay at home. The logistic of providing foods is impossible for Indonesia, Jakarta alone has 12 million citizens, the government has no data on the who and where, it's a nightmare.
4. We don't know about behind the screen politics, there are possibility of big corruption with locals and centrals discrepancy on policy on emergency funding. There are also potential imbalance when province A and Province B can't cooperate. I also think that there are parties that wants to use this to incite chaos and champions their own agenda. We don't know whether Jokowi as full support internally to take measures, there could be lobbying inside we're privy to.
5. PSBB sounds better, and there are loopholes on both sides. Enough for it to be practical, and enough for it to scare the masses to cooperate.
6. I'm also guessing lockdowns has it's own legal ramifications. I'm not a lawyer, but I think the wording matters on what constitute as force majeure. If you're forced by the official to close your business, then your contracts would probably can be voided without penalty. Many business would need the proper wording.
7. And there's masses who's scared of virus, but dont want to stop their business because their neighbor hasn't. My friend who opens stores says it's better for it to be official, at least I don't have to worry about losing my customer he says.

And yes, I agree you can't lock down for long, 1-2 months is the max max max you can survive, anything longer than that would be chaos and riots because as real as this virus is, you can only survive 3 days without food. I don't even think I can survive beyond 3 months without defaulting my mortgage etc. Even if physical survival is possible, the financial damages of having no income for 3 months is long lasting.

 

[sullydnl]

Agreed. There was no need to reveal the visitor's identity. The press is just absolutely vile in this country.

Particularly given the UK had just recorded the highest death toll in Europe, which you'd think would be a more pressing and newsworthy story to lead with. They had to actively reach past that headline news to go with this side-story.

 

[711]

Second phase of downsizing the lockdown in Belgium starts on Sunday, some small changes:
- 4 persons can come and visit you, but always the same 4.

This is asking people to identify which relatives they like the most, or which mates are their favourites. I can't decide if this is funny or not.

 

[nimic]

It would pass public interest criteria I reckon.

The guy, sure, but plastering the woman's face all over the paper?

 

[RobinLFC]

This is asking people to identify which relatives they like the most, or which mates are their favourites. I can't decide if this is funny or not.

Mother-in-law already called the missus to see if we wanted to come by this Sunday (it's Mother's Day), but you have to limit your contact to just the one other family. So if we're going on Sunday, they are our 2 people and we are theirs. No chance we're doing that.

But it creates problems yeah, definitely. Just think of a family with 3 kids all living apart.

 

[Jippy]

The guy, sure, but plastering the woman's face all over the paper?

Those dallying with folk in the public eye are considered fair game with them, rightly or wrongly.

 

[Vitro]

The population of London is greater than Paris, Barcelona and Brussels combined isn't it? It's densely populated enough to spread like wildfire and with that many people it seems a higher death total was an inevitability.

The population density of Paris is 4 times higher than London's. Madrid has approximately the same population density as London. Grand Paris has a population similar to that of Greater
London and Madrid is about half the size of both.

Regardless, all of these numbers were known prior to the outbreak and nothing was inevitable if the right action was taken. As many epidemiologists (and redcafe FFS) said at the time, social distancing imposed 2 weeks earlier and a lockdown imposed a week earlier would have a saved a great many lives and reduced the total time of lockdown. The government erroneously cited herd immunity and delayed, and here we are.

 

[SteveJ]

'See NUDE pix of the immoral Blonde Strumpet who Professor Pantsdown's knobbing! (pages 2-29). Also, more deaths than both World Wars etc etc (page 30, column 27)'

 

[Jippy]

The British notion that foreigners are, compared to us, always a disorganised rabble is ingrained, and won't change (except very gradually). Even my father & grandfather - from whom I literally never heard a racist word - would look at old news footage of, say, Egyptian workers in the Valley of the Kings and say things like: "Ha, look at that lot - every one of them wants to be the leader, and nothing's getting done properly. It's chaos."

The belief in British grit and graft so visibly breaks down as well when we have to fly over foreign fruit pickers cos our workers aren't up to it.

 

[Carolina Red]

The belief in British grit and graft so visibly breaks down as well when we have to fly over foreign fruit pickers cos our workers aren't up to it.

I remember watching a documentary on that one day, where they gave unemployed Brits a job picking produce or working as a waiter in a curry house or whatnot. If I remember correctly, they all quit.

I'd imagine you'd get similar results here in the realm of "jobs foreigners do".

 

[golden_blunder]

I took the opportunity to bin our trampoline when we moved house after going out for beers with a neurosurgeon who told me it would half the number of paralysed children with spinal cord damage he operates on each year if trampolines were made illegal.

Jesus. I’ve got a 12ft one in the garden which has become almost like a UFC ring for my 2 lads. Because I can’t get out I’ve been doing my own exercises in it too

 

[sun_tzu]

The belief in British grit and graft so visibly breaks down as well when we have to fly over foreign fruit pickers cos our workers aren't up to it.

i dunno - mass unemployment - work for your benefits etc (probably unworkable due to not enough people living close to fruit farms ) - could see some elements of the conservative party pushing for that

 

[golden_blunder]

Second phase of downsizing the lockdown in Belgium starts on Sunday, some small changes:

- 4 persons can come and visit you, but always the same 4.
- All shops can reopen on Monday. Only 1 customer per 10 m², and a maximum of 30 minutes inside the shop.
- Masks are recommended. Mandatory on public transport.

Next steps will be taken on May 18th, if everything goes according to plan. Museums and libraries would probably reopen, hairdressers can go back to work, more people allowed at weddings and funerals...

Nothing about bars and restaurants yet. Competitive sports are forbidden until 31/07.

We are at about 40.000 tests per million inhabitants at the moment.

I think it’s the same for Ireland - you have to do a list of people who can visit

 

[Pagh Wraith]

So Germany is basically opening everything now. Merkel's just held a press conference. Contact restrictions (1.5 metres) and mandatory masks in public transport and shops will be extended until 5 Jun but all shops are allowed to open (they've done away with the 800 sqm rule) and everything else is up to the states now who can open restaurants, pubs, beer gardens, hotels, cinemas and apparently even brothels. Some states have already announced they will open gastronomy on Saturday. Bundesliga allowed to continue next weekend as well.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Jesus. I’ve got a 12ft one in the garden which has become almost like a UFC ring for my 2 lads. Because I can’t get out I’ve been doing my own exercises in it too

They’re ok if used safely. Supervised and (ideally) one person on them at a time. The danger comes when parents take their eye off the ball. Which I didn’t trust myself not to do!

 

[Pogue Mahone]

So Germany is basically opening everything now. Merkel's just held a press conference. Contact restrictions (1.5 metres) and mandatory masks in public transport and shops will be extended until 5 Jun but all shops are allowed to open (they've done away with the 800 sqm rule) and everythings else is up to the states now who can open restaurants, pubs, beer gardens, hotels, cinemas and apparently even brothels. Bundesliga allowed to continue next weekend.

What’s driving this accelerated return to normal? Are they being encouraged by the lack of cases after first few days out of lockdown?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think it’s the same for Ireland - you have to do a list of people who can visit

Where did you read about the list of visitors?

 

[golden_blunder]

Where did you read about the list of visitors?

Now I’m doubting myself, it was a few days ago. Will see if I can find it

 

[sun_tzu]

So Germany is basically opening everything now. Merkel's just held a press conference. Contact restrictions (1.5 metres) and mandatory masks in public transport and shops will be extended until 5 Jun but all shops are allowed to open (they've done away with the 800 sqm rule) and everythings else is up to the states now who can open restaurants, pubs, beer gardens, hotels, cinemas and apparently even brothels. Some states have already announced they will open gastronomy on Saturday. Bundesliga allowed to continue next weekend as well.

erm...?

 

[VP89]

The population density of Paris is 4 times higher than London's. Madrid has approximately the same population density as London. Grand Paris has a population similar to that of Greater
London and Madrid is about half the size of both.

Regardless, all of these numbers were known prior to the outbreak and nothing was inevitable if the right action was taken. As many epidemiologists (and redcafe FFS) said at the time, social distancing imposed 2 weeks earlier and a lockdown imposed a week earlier would have a saved a great many lives and reduced the total time of lockdown. The government erroneously cited herd immunity and delayed, and here we are.

Density only matters so much when you're looking at death totals. Ultimately London as a standalone city is more than dense enough to have an extremely fast spread of the virus. The virus has enough legs to spread from one to another, and when you consider London has 4x more people than Paris, it will have more deaths.

I'm in whole agreement that our lockdown, our closure of flights, our stockpiling among other areas should have been done earlier. However I do think we were likely to have the highest death total in our city as soon as the virus came and we failed to trace the source effectively.

 

[Hugh Jass]

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I feel a bit bad for the prof and his lady friend getting thrown to the wolves.

The sun headline is awful. A humiliation. If that were me i would be contacting my lawyer. Doubt much could be done though.

If the sun had said it about the woman there would be a national outcry.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

What’s driving this accelerated return to normal? Are they being encouraged by the lack of cases after first few days out of lockdown?

The low numbers but also the state PMs I think. As many know, Germany has a federal system granting the 16 states a lot of autonomy. Merkel in particular however, has been pushing for uniform regulations nationwide during this crisis. This has proven to be impossible with the states announcing new relaxations of the regulations on a weekly basis and the fact that the situation is very different from region to region.

 

[Ludens the Red]

Random question but saw a graph which shows females under 50 are testing positive for corona more than males in that age group . Yet for over 50’s it’s a complete u turn. Why is this?

erm...?

Gloryhole I imagine ?

 

[Pagh Wraith]

erm...?

Had the same thought!

But I think the first is a federal regulation, the second one is up to the states.

 

[TMDaines]

Its different in America, daines

I know it is. At least I and others have the common sense though not to blindly issue UK policy to those abroad and would have the contrition to withdraw any dangerous advice that I mistakingly issued online.

 

[Lj82]

I know the right wing press has been churning out their jingoistic shit about Britain leading the global fight against coronavirus but are people actually swallowing this?
Today in The Sun they have a piece saying Heathrow is to trial thermal camera imaging in the fight against corona with this quote.


WTf? Singapore had this at least in mid-February, yet we're talking about Britain pioneering some amazing new technology

Actually most of the Asian international airports have this since SARs. I'm so used to it that I was very surprised when I don't see it in the US

 

[JPRouve]

Density only matters so much when you're looking at death totals. Ultimately London as a standalone city is more than dense enough to have an extremely fast spread of the virus. The virus has enough legs to spread from one to another, and when you consider London has 4x more people than Paris, it will have more deaths.

I'm in whole agreement that our lockdown, our closure of flights, our stockpiling among other areas should have been done earlier. However I do think we were likely to have the highest death total in our city as soon as the virus came and we failed to trace the source effectively.

You can't consider that though because from a practical standpoint it's wrong. The actual comparison between the two cities would be at metro level, London has 14m inhabitants and Paris has 12m but Paris is 4 times smaller and therefore denser.

 

[berbatrick]

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[Pogue Mahone]

Random question but saw a graph which shows females under 50 are testing positive for corona more than males in that age group . Yet for over 50’s it’s a complete u turn. Why is this?



Gloryhole I imagine ?

Haven’t seen that graph but I’d imagine it’s skewed by who is getting tested. In the Uk, you either need to be a healthcare worker or admitted to hospital to be tested.

The majority of nurses/care home workers are women, which would explain female majority in people of working age. When you get older is when people are more likely to get very sick and men are much more likely than women to get very unwell from covid (nobody knows why).

 

[VP89]

You can't consider that though because from a practical standpoint it's wrong. The actual comparison between the two cities would be at metro level, London has 14m inhabitants and Paris has 12m but Paris is 4 times smaller and therefore denser.

I'm not denying the density is greater with Paris, but London is still very densely populated even when you branch out to greater London be it Harrow or Croydon. When one city has 8x more people and is still very densely populated, the virus will take more lives.

 

[Drifter]

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I feel a bit bad for the prof and his lady friend getting thrown to the wolves.

Note the papers leading with the story .

 

[TMDaines]

I don't really understand what we're doing at this point. I havent really understood at any point but now it's just bordering on sheer lunacy.

I thought the whole point of lockdown was to allow the health service to cope during the peak period which would also potentially have come at a time when they are already stretched. Now we are past both of those possibilities and ae still carrying on exactly the same.

Who are we even saving at this point? The virus is not going to go away and one way or another most people will get it before there is a vaccine...unless they are literally made to live a life of misery as permanent prisoners in their own home. Even those who don't get it before there is a vaccine...the vaccine wont help a lot of them who the virus is actually a risk to.

I don't know anyone who's been affected by corona virus, yet know countless people who've lost jobs, income, opportunities, who are living in misery or who's mental health has been severely affected. A friend of a work colleague has committed suicide. My dad who's been forced to self isolate has seen his health deteriorate where he can't exercise and has been drinking and smoking more. My mum has severe mental health issues and I'm not even allowed to see her to check she is ok. things like this are 500x more widespread as corona virus and for a signnifiant percentage of people are a far bigger risk.

We're on the verge of a point now where we are killing and torturing people rather than helping them, I'm afraid. I see people laughing at people who think they're being "opressed"...but the reality is we've all had most of our freedoms taken away with no guarantee we'll ge tthem back, and if I asked anyone to explain what it's actually achieving, it's very hard to say it's achieving anythhing at all as there is literally NO evidence or plan to support any argument.

We're at 30,000 deaths, plus probably a whole load more, plus a whole load more again that are due to lockdown measures rather than the virus. The recorded overall death numbers suggest lockdown is killing thousands a week already. There will be a much bigger death toll number next to the lockdown/economic impact in the longer term. If the aim is to save lives where is the evidence that it is doing that?

We can’t move to the next stage until the tracking and tracing infrastructure is ready, especially with the disease spreading rapidly through care homes. That’s why we currently in a bit of a holding pattern. I can assure you that people are working like manic to get this done on both a national and regional level.

 

[Garethw]

So what lockdown measures will be eased in the UK then?

I can see a huge second wave of this bastard virus on the horizon.

 

[Buster15]

Nah. Look at the States and how many of them are believing Trump and a continuous stream of lies. When the information channels fail to portray an objective view and/or over a critical part of the populous are indoctrinated or more interested in what fits their narrative or worldview rather than factual/scientific truths, then you get a large portion of people that are unable to make up their own decision and unwilling to reconsider their own views based on new information. This goes both ways.

The same tendencies, regarding the media and a more populistic/Trumpistic governmental public relation strategy, are already happening. It all depends on the ability of the average Englishman to be able to make up his own opinion. You already "failed" with Brexit two times, and you elected an obviously incompetent and morally unscrupulous man as prime minister. So I'm not so sure about England/UK not turning into USA 2.0 within the next 10 years.

Yes. Have to agree.
Sad state of affairs.

 

[JPRouve]

I'm not denying the density is greater with Paris, but London is still very densely populated even when you branch out to greater London be it Harrow or Croydon. When one city has 8x more people and is still very densely populated, the virus will take more lives.

But you kind of made a comparison and drew a conclusion that was wrong. Paris and London metro areas are comparable in terms of population but Paris is significantly denser, it should be the worst hit area in Europe and I wouldn't be surprised if it actually is, London should be the second one and it probably is.

So you have a point about the fact that it's not surprising to see the UK near the top but I had to quibble regarding Paris vs London.

 

[Ludens the Red]

Haven’t seen that graph but I’d imagine it’s skewed by who is getting tested. In the Uk, you either need to be a healthcare worker or admitted to hospital to be tested.

The majority of nurses/care home workers are women, which would explain female majority in people of working age. When you get older is when people are more likely to get very sick and men are much more likely than women to get very unwell from covid (nobody knows why).

Ah, course, makes sense.

 

[Penna]

It would pass public interest criteria I reckon.

Who she is isn't relevant, though. She's not a Government public health expert. I don't see why the story couldn't run without the pictures of the attractive blonde woman (which is completely irrelevant to the issue here), but of course, she's an attractive blonde woman so they're bound to show her. It's really invading her privacy.

 

[711]

I remember watching a documentary on that one day, where they gave unemployed Brits a job picking produce or working as a waiter in a curry house or whatnot. If I remember correctly, they all quit.

I'd imagine you'd get similar results here in the realm of "jobs foreigners do".

There is some logic to putting unemployed people to work picking crops, but at the moment I wouldn't look at those on jobseekers allowance of £300 a month, I'd look at those furloughed. Start off with the ones on £2,500 a month and work down til you have enough. Want your furlough money? Get down to the farms mate.

In the Lancashire Cotton Famine of the 19th century (bloody yanks again with their civil war, no cotton) the mill workers were literally starving to death so the local authorities sustained them, but in return they to landscape parks, build roads and reservoirs, all sorts of things. I expect they were happy to be fed too.

 

[Carolina Red]

There is some logic to putting unemployed people to work picking crops, but at the moment I wouldn't look at those on jobseekers allowance of £300 a month, I'd look at those furloughed. Start off with the ones on £2,500 a month and work down til you have enough. Want your furlough money? Get down to the farms mate.

FDR instituted stuff like that in the Great Depression... that said, we weren't mid pandemic at the time.

bloody yanks again with their civil war, no cotton

Yeah... sorry about that.

 

[Jippy]

I remember watching a documentary on that one day, where they gave unemployed Brits a job picking produce or working as a waiter in a curry house or whatnot. If I remember correctly, they all quit.

I'd imagine you'd get similar results here in the realm of "jobs foreigners do".

I saw one of those a while back, maybe the same one, and yep they all quit, moaning about the

i dunno - mass unemployment - work for your benefits etc (probably unworkable due to not enough people living close to fruit farms ) - could see some elements of the conservative party pushing for that

The Daily Mail comment section already is.