The Mark of the Beast. Revelation something.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Anti-vaxxers
5g consiracy theorists
End of days nutters
Gun nuts/white supremacists
The four
Germany haven’t dropped to single digit figures for cases though. Are you suggesting Germany have got it wrong ? And that they should have continued in full lockdown? Isn’t it also the case that actually none of these countries are looking for a complete eradication of cases due to the unreliability on a date for a vaccine? And so are still going for a part herd tactic?
You’re probably right in that a second wave will come a lot further down the line.
The general tone and conclusions from your post though seem to be either an unrealistic expectancy of us getting to single digit infections worldwide or worse case scenarios situations. You will never be able to do a Korean type lockdown in Europe or America. And you’ve stated that deaths will be significantly higher and that the victim count will be a few times higher than it is now but this doesn’t seem to be the general consensus as there’s still a lot of factors to be understood as well as how potent the virus is after this initial phase. Seems to be a strong point of view to take when everyone else seems uncertain.
Agreed but I have no hope that’ll happen, “human rights” “freedom of speech” etc. Just far too many stupid people in the world.
Do drive-in cinemas have a renaissance elsewhere, too? In Germany not just with films, they are used for concerts, too, and on June 12 the top German pole vault jumpers will have a competition in one!
The one in Frankfurt in the last years only had about one or two shows, often older films, each week. Now two or more daily.
And from June 1st on my next bigger city will use its festival place as drive-in cinema vor various events.
The one in Frankfurt in the last years only had about one or two shows, often older films, each week. Now two or more daily.
And from June 1st on my next bigger city will use its festival place as drive-in cinema vor various events.
But if you walked the length of one pavement, then crossed the road and walk back down it would be a mile right?
China's New Outbreak Shows Signs the Virus Could Be Changing
Bloomberg link
"Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.
Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.
Cases in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients."
“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” said Qiu, who was earlier sent to Wuhan to help in the original outbreak. Some 46 cases have been reported over the past two weeks spread across three cities -- Shulan, Jilin city and Shengyang -- in two provinces, a resurgence of infection that sparked renewed lockdown measures over a region of 100 million people.
Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they’re able to observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan. When the outbreak first exploded in the central Chinese city, the local health-care system was so overwhelmed that only the most serious cases were being treated. The northeast cluster is also far smaller than Hubei’s outbreak, which ultimately sickened over 68,000 people."
Was reading of just the new cases eariler and a little surprised by the amount that just popped up but this might be a reason. Hopefully it's just observational differences.
Bloomberg link
"Chinese doctors are seeing the coronavirus manifest differently among patients in its new cluster of cases in the northeast region compared to the original outbreak in Wuhan, suggesting that the pathogen may be changing in unknown ways and complicating efforts to stamp it out.
Patients found in the northern provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang appear to carry the virus for a longer period of time and take longer to recover, as defined by a negative nucleic acid test, Qiu Haibo, one of China’s top critical care doctors, told state television on Tuesday.
Cases in the northeast also appear to be taking longer than the one to two weeks observed in Wuhan to develop symptoms after infection, and this delayed onset is making it harder for authorities to catch cases before they spread, said Qiu, who is now in the northern region treating patients."
“The longer period during which infected patients show no symptoms has created clusters of family infections,” said Qiu, who was earlier sent to Wuhan to help in the original outbreak. Some 46 cases have been reported over the past two weeks spread across three cities -- Shulan, Jilin city and Shengyang -- in two provinces, a resurgence of infection that sparked renewed lockdown measures over a region of 100 million people.
Scientists still do not fully understand if the virus is changing in significant ways and the differences Chinese doctors are seeing could be due to the fact that they’re able to observe patients more thoroughly and from an earlier stage than in Wuhan. When the outbreak first exploded in the central Chinese city, the local health-care system was so overwhelmed that only the most serious cases were being treated. The northeast cluster is also far smaller than Hubei’s outbreak, which ultimately sickened over 68,000 people."
Was reading of just the new cases eariler and a little surprised by the amount that just popped up but this might be a reason. Hopefully it's just observational differences.
It’s a nice idea and will appeal to people because of its novelty but can’t see it being more than a passing phase. In these days of IMAX watching a film through your car windscreen must be a terrible substitute.
I’ve even heard people talking about drive-in dance music festivals. What the feck?
It does sound more like what we’ve experienced in Europe. Which fits with the early data coming out of China causing most of Europe to underestimate the transmissibility of the virus. Much more likely that it’s our understanding of the virus that has evolved over the last few months than the virus itself evolving.
Drive in movies are awesome - better for blockbusters and old favorites but I love them anyway. They work best in warmer climates.
Depends what the government is trying to do. Nobody believes they can totally eradicate this virus and everybody started from a different stage. Australia is not comparable with the UK. Only similar countries like France, Germany, and Spain are, with similar populations, profiles and advance warning, and we won't know who performed best for a few years yet.
I think the UK is focusing on keeping the virus beneath the capacity of the NHS, nothing else. I don't think they want to admit it but they're trying to keep the balance between that and keeping the economy moving as much as possible. In that sense they have succeeded so far.
I have to stop reading about our government because they just drive me mad. After 10 years of fecking education over by these assiduous cnuts, they start going on about children's education as being vital. Running the line that getting children back too school is important for their education. What about the last decade you wankers!
How critical is it to find Patient Zero from China still?
You know I’ve never actually been to one! What’s the view like through the front window? I picture it as seeming really small and far away.
I’m not sure. Probably useful to learn how to avoid the next pandemic but won’t tell us anything useful about stopping this one.
FAO Irish
This is a really good interview with Cillian De Gascun about all things virus. He was a couple of years below me in med school and has a brain the size of a planet. He also toured New Zealand playing rugby for the Irish schoolboys team. Bastard. Probably has a small mickey though.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-coronavirus-ireland-podcast/id1503255048?i=1000475102407
@sullydnl
@golden_blunder
@lynchie
@Massive Spanner
@Brophs
Apologies to anyone I forgot.
This is a really good interview with Cillian De Gascun about all things virus. He was a couple of years below me in med school and has a brain the size of a planet. He also toured New Zealand playing rugby for the Irish schoolboys team. Bastard. Probably has a small mickey though.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-coronavirus-ireland-podcast/id1503255048?i=1000475102407
@sullydnl
@golden_blunder
@lynchie
@Massive Spanner
@Brophs
Apologies to anyone I forgot.
I guess they are similar to silent discos where everyone is wearing headphones. Just in your car.
Easier to knock one out on the quiet too
of courseMoonlight cinemas are awesome, like the one in Centennial, drive in not so much, decent for nostalgia though.
@Pogue Mahone big fan of your work.
Regards previous chat about Vit D supplements and dosage - what’s best/necessary, any recommendations?
Regards previous chat about Vit D supplements and dosage - what’s best/necessary, any recommendations?
What's your view on what countries like Australia and New Zealand do in the the hypothetical scenario that it begins to look like there's never going to be a vaccine? They've been very successful in avoiding this first wave, but if all our vaccine trials fail, and the virus keeps gradually spreading throughout the world, those countries that locked down successfully start to look very vulnerable if and when they start letting the outside world in, while the UK, which has massively messed up this first stage, is potentially well on the way to some level of herd immunity - if our IFR is similar to elsewhere in the world, we've got maybe 5-10% of the population exposed already.
I guess over time, we should at least find some decent therapeutic drugs, to manage the symptoms and reduce the mortality rate, but it would be a brave leader who makes the call that you need to let the virus back in if you're not going to be forever cut off from outside.
In the hypothetical scenario where there is never going to be a vaccine, it is also almost certain there is no such thing as "herd immunity".
So I was just about to apply for the contact tracer role to do on the side (4 hour session, flexible shifts with not great pay but work seems not that hectic) then this!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52732818
This is also in addition to
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810
I'm also seeing on GP groups online massive delays in patients and staff getting tested, now with the expansion to testing all symptomatic patients over the age of 5 massive delays in getting a testing slot from point of symptom emergence and also delays in getting testing results
Can put these down to teething issues sure but would be wise to iron these out perhaps before easing lockdown restrictions even further and sky is saying that thats what certain scientific advisors are telling number 10
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...is-a-success-say-government-advisers-11991336
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52732818
This is also in addition to
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810
I'm also seeing on GP groups online massive delays in patients and staff getting tested, now with the expansion to testing all symptomatic patients over the age of 5 massive delays in getting a testing slot from point of symptom emergence and also delays in getting testing results
Can put these down to teething issues sure but would be wise to iron these out perhaps before easing lockdown restrictions even further and sky is saying that thats what certain scientific advisors are telling number 10
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...is-a-success-say-government-advisers-11991336
It's interesting but I still don't get why we are being so unbelievably slow in easing restrictions in comparison to every other country in Europe. He doesn't really explain that either beyond "well look we went into this cautiously so we need to come out of it cautiously." Great.
Can you start tagging me in the posts with other good posters so others start to respect me more.
This is a fair point!
Honestly after being tagged there I think my chances of getting worst poster this year have gone down massively.
I think 1000iU/day will do it. That’s what I’m on anyway. I do know some people recommend higher doses.
I think it’s the fine margins we have with ICU beds. Just takes a couple of hundred admissions to fill them up completely. Partly because as a small country our absolute numbers are small. Partly because our health service infrastructure has been chronically poorly underfunded. This latter reason will be a touchy subject in the HSE, so he has to dance around it.
EDIT: Thinking about it, being an island also complicates the ICU situation. I’ve heard about patients being taken across borders in mainland Europe by ambulance to transfer to available ICU beds in other countries. Which isn’t an option for us.
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Our ICU capacity is pretty good right now though with the merging of the private hospitals, isn't it? Certainly better than other countries who haven't got the same restritions as us. Personally I think Holohan is getting far too much unchallenged weight. Naturally from his perspective he wants to stop spread above all else but there surely has to be a point where we look at our crumbling economy, our jobless numbers, the fact that cancer screenings have been put on hold, the sheer amount of empty hospital beds that could be used for other aspects, and overall, that we are being so ridiculously slow compared to just about everyone else.
The media and government have basically taken his word for gospel so far and no doubt he did do a good job initially but our roadmap, for me, is a total joke. I think general consensus from the public is starting to echo that, too.
I don’t think that’s true. Do you have any specific countries in mind that have a similarly low number of ICU beds and are exiting quicker than we are?
Dunno about the strict definition of herd immunity but assuming that catching the virus gives you at least some protection (which is likely) then the higher the % of population previously infected the smaller the size of any subsequent “waves” (and/or the less severe the lockdown measures needed to flatten them)
We got one in Kraków now but it’s sold out forever so won’t be able to attend anytime soon.
https://www.politico.eu/article/charting-europes-capacity-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-crisis/
This is the most recent graph I can find. But I'm pretty sure our numbers of ICU beds have increased since then. Either way all the countries around us there are exiting faster than we are.
Or.. well.. every European country is exiting faster than we are!
EDIT: From April, we have an extra 30 apparently, not a huge amount, not sure how it fits in with that graph. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...ents-warn-critical-care-specialists-1.4232655
Went to restaurant yesterday, it felt great. It was almost completely empty (they reopened in Monday) and had shorter menu than before pandemic but it still felt good. Technically you are only able to sit down with people you live with in the same household but it’s obviously impossible to verify that so they are letting everyone in.
I got appointment with my barbershop on Saturday to cut my hair after 4 months, I look ridiculous now. They pissed me off though, I was supporting them for 4 months paying for visit that obviously didn’t happen, full price, so I thought they would have at least allowed me to make reservation before they opened to public. The least they could do is to let me know booking is open. By the time I realized they reopened for booking they already sold out for the week. Ungrateful cnuts.
I got appointment with my barbershop on Saturday to cut my hair after 4 months, I look ridiculous now. They pissed me off though, I was supporting them for 4 months paying for visit that obviously didn’t happen, full price, so I thought they would have at least allowed me to make reservation before they opened to public. The least they could do is to let me know booking is open. By the time I realized they reopened for booking they already sold out for the week. Ungrateful cnuts.
I’ve seen that graph before and I think there are varying definitions of what constitutes a critical care bed. Plus a bed is useless without the appropriately qualified staff to use it. And we’ve been haemorrhaging our medical talent abroad for years (another touchy subject, politically)
EDIT: That Irish Times link you shared basically makes the same point I’ve been making. Did you read the article?!
Yeah I'm not disputing that HSE is a pile of dogshit and no doubt plays a part in why we're so cautious. I would still like to think it's not a worse health system than many of the poorer Eastern European countries who are exiting lockdown far quicker than we are have.
Plus.. we aren't even at half capacity right now, or something. I think it's crazy that he hospitals are half empty after we have so effectively managed this virus through our lockdown yet our roadmap doesn't allow us to travel more than 5k away for another month or something, and more than 20k for nearly 2 months!
Maybe I'm just being a grump cause I need a haircut.
Apparently we should be celebrating the death figure going down according to this chap. Right response from Morgan:
Half capacity for us is just 200(ish) admissions from zero capacity. In bigger countries, where you have thousands of beds to play around with, they aren’t treading such a fine line. If one region starts to get overwhelmed during an outbreak they will still have capacity in other regions. Once our 400 beds are full it’s game over.
Anyway, I’d like to think there’s flexibility in our road map. They keep saying that they can slow down the exit if we get a surge of cases. I’m sure they can speed things up if we do better than predicted. Fingers crossed anyway.
And buy some hair clippers!
My point was that if it is not possible to develop a vaccine for it, then it’s also likely that natural immunity is also unlikely to last for the same reason. Speculation on my part and I understand that there is other reasons why vaccination might not be viable but surely antibodies not persisting has got to be most likely?