You know I’ve never actually been to one! What’s the view like through the front window? I picture it as seeming really small and far away.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
I’m not sure. Probably useful to learn how to avoid the next pandemic but won’t tell us anything useful about stopping this one.
FAO Irish
This is a really good interview with Cillian De Gascun about all things virus. He was a couple of years below me in med school and has a brain the size of a planet. He also toured New Zealand playing rugby for the Irish schoolboys team. Bastard. Probably has a small mickey though.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-coronavirus-ireland-podcast/id1503255048?i=1000475102407
@sullydnl
@golden_blunder
@lynchie
@Massive Spanner
@Brophs
Apologies to anyone I forgot.
This is a really good interview with Cillian De Gascun about all things virus. He was a couple of years below me in med school and has a brain the size of a planet. He also toured New Zealand playing rugby for the Irish schoolboys team. Bastard. Probably has a small mickey though.
https://podcasts.apple.com/ie/podcast/the-coronavirus-ireland-podcast/id1503255048?i=1000475102407
@sullydnl
@golden_blunder
@lynchie
@Massive Spanner
@Brophs
Apologies to anyone I forgot.
I guess they are similar to silent discos where everyone is wearing headphones. Just in your car.
Easier to knock one out on the quiet too
of courseMoonlight cinemas are awesome, like the one in Centennial, drive in not so much, decent for nostalgia though.
@Pogue Mahone big fan of your work.
Regards previous chat about Vit D supplements and dosage - what’s best/necessary, any recommendations?
Regards previous chat about Vit D supplements and dosage - what’s best/necessary, any recommendations?
What's your view on what countries like Australia and New Zealand do in the the hypothetical scenario that it begins to look like there's never going to be a vaccine? They've been very successful in avoiding this first wave, but if all our vaccine trials fail, and the virus keeps gradually spreading throughout the world, those countries that locked down successfully start to look very vulnerable if and when they start letting the outside world in, while the UK, which has massively messed up this first stage, is potentially well on the way to some level of herd immunity - if our IFR is similar to elsewhere in the world, we've got maybe 5-10% of the population exposed already.
I guess over time, we should at least find some decent therapeutic drugs, to manage the symptoms and reduce the mortality rate, but it would be a brave leader who makes the call that you need to let the virus back in if you're not going to be forever cut off from outside.
In the hypothetical scenario where there is never going to be a vaccine, it is also almost certain there is no such thing as "herd immunity".
So I was just about to apply for the contact tracer role to do on the side (4 hour session, flexible shifts with not great pay but work seems not that hectic) then this!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52732818
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810
Can put these down to teething issues sure but would be wise to iron these out perhaps before easing lockdown restrictions even further and sky is saying that thats what certain scientific advisors are telling number 10
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...is-a-success-say-government-advisers-11991336
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52732818
This is also in addition to
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-52725810
I'm also seeing on GP groups online massive delays in patients and staff getting tested, now with the expansion to testing all symptomatic patients over the age of 5 massive delays in getting a testing slot from point of symptom emergence and also delays in getting testing results
Can put these down to teething issues sure but would be wise to iron these out perhaps before easing lockdown restrictions even further and sky is saying that thats what certain scientific advisors are telling number 10
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...is-a-success-say-government-advisers-11991336
It's interesting but I still don't get why we are being so unbelievably slow in easing restrictions in comparison to every other country in Europe. He doesn't really explain that either beyond "well look we went into this cautiously so we need to come out of it cautiously." Great.
Can you start tagging me in the posts with other good posters so others start to respect me more.
This is a fair point!
Honestly after being tagged there I think my chances of getting worst poster this year have gone down massively.
I think 1000iU/day will do it. That’s what I’m on anyway. I do know some people recommend higher doses.
I think it’s the fine margins we have with ICU beds. Just takes a couple of hundred admissions to fill them up completely. Partly because as a small country our absolute numbers are small. Partly because our health service infrastructure has been chronically poorly underfunded. This latter reason will be a touchy subject in the HSE, so he has to dance around it.
EDIT: Thinking about it, being an island also complicates the ICU situation. I’ve heard about patients being taken across borders in mainland Europe by ambulance to transfer to available ICU beds in other countries. Which isn’t an option for us.
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Our ICU capacity is pretty good right now though with the merging of the private hospitals, isn't it? Certainly better than other countries who haven't got the same restritions as us. Personally I think Holohan is getting far too much unchallenged weight. Naturally from his perspective he wants to stop spread above all else but there surely has to be a point where we look at our crumbling economy, our jobless numbers, the fact that cancer screenings have been put on hold, the sheer amount of empty hospital beds that could be used for other aspects, and overall, that we are being so ridiculously slow compared to just about everyone else.
The media and government have basically taken his word for gospel so far and no doubt he did do a good job initially but our roadmap, for me, is a total joke. I think general consensus from the public is starting to echo that, too.
I don’t think that’s true. Do you have any specific countries in mind that have a similarly low number of ICU beds and are exiting quicker than we are?
Dunno about the strict definition of herd immunity but assuming that catching the virus gives you at least some protection (which is likely) then the higher the % of population previously infected the smaller the size of any subsequent “waves” (and/or the less severe the lockdown measures needed to flatten them)
We got one in Kraków now but it’s sold out forever so won’t be able to attend anytime soon.
https://www.politico.eu/article/charting-europes-capacity-to-deal-with-the-coronavirus-crisis/
This is the most recent graph I can find. But I'm pretty sure our numbers of ICU beds have increased since then. Either way all the countries around us there are exiting faster than we are.
Or.. well.. every European country is exiting faster than we are!
EDIT: From April, we have an extra 30 apparently, not a huge amount, not sure how it fits in with that graph. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ire...ents-warn-critical-care-specialists-1.4232655
Went to restaurant yesterday, it felt great. It was almost completely empty (they reopened in Monday) and had shorter menu than before pandemic but it still felt good. Technically you are only able to sit down with people you live with in the same household but it’s obviously impossible to verify that so they are letting everyone in.
I got appointment with my barbershop on Saturday to cut my hair after 4 months, I look ridiculous now. They pissed me off though, I was supporting them for 4 months paying for visit that obviously didn’t happen, full price, so I thought they would have at least allowed me to make reservation before they opened to public. The least they could do is to let me know booking is open. By the time I realized they reopened for booking they already sold out for the week. Ungrateful cnuts.
I got appointment with my barbershop on Saturday to cut my hair after 4 months, I look ridiculous now. They pissed me off though, I was supporting them for 4 months paying for visit that obviously didn’t happen, full price, so I thought they would have at least allowed me to make reservation before they opened to public. The least they could do is to let me know booking is open. By the time I realized they reopened for booking they already sold out for the week. Ungrateful cnuts.
I’ve seen that graph before and I think there are varying definitions of what constitutes a critical care bed. Plus a bed is useless without the appropriately qualified staff to use it. And we’ve been haemorrhaging our medical talent abroad for years (another touchy subject, politically)
EDIT: That Irish Times link you shared basically makes the same point I’ve been making. Did you read the article?!
Yeah I'm not disputing that HSE is a pile of dogshit and no doubt plays a part in why we're so cautious. I would still like to think it's not a worse health system than many of the poorer Eastern European countries who are exiting lockdown far quicker than we are have.
Plus.. we aren't even at half capacity right now, or something. I think it's crazy that he hospitals are half empty after we have so effectively managed this virus through our lockdown yet our roadmap doesn't allow us to travel more than 5k away for another month or something, and more than 20k for nearly 2 months!
Maybe I'm just being a grump cause I need a haircut.
Apparently we should be celebrating the death figure going down according to this chap. Right response from Morgan:
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Half capacity for us is just 200(ish) admissions from zero capacity. In bigger countries, where you have thousands of beds to play around with, they aren’t treading such a fine line. If one region starts to get overwhelmed during an outbreak they will still have capacity in other regions. Once our 400 beds are full it’s game over.
Anyway, I’d like to think there’s flexibility in our road map. They keep saying that they can slow down the exit if we get a surge of cases. I’m sure they can speed things up if we do better than predicted. Fingers crossed anyway.
And buy some hair clippers!
My point was that if it is not possible to develop a vaccine for it, then it’s also likely that natural immunity is also unlikely to last for the same reason. Speculation on my part and I understand that there is other reasons why vaccination might not be viable but surely antibodies not persisting has got to be most likely?
If the UK is focusing on keeping infections below the capacity of the NHS to cope they are still doing it all wrong.
Most of Europe hasn't done a great job but the UK has done a truly terrible job. The economy is going to get smashed every time there is a new wave of infection.
If there is never a vaccine NZ and AU have made the wrong choice. But a vaccine is more likely a question of when rather than if.
Large but not the best rez. Watching a film you know and love is best.
I assume it's not actually just Holohan who calls the shots though, is it?
Every time they talk about recommendations being made it's NPHET that are making the recommendations, which means all these guys too:
Prof Colm Bergin, infectious diseases consultant at St James’s Hospital and Professor of Medicine at Trinity College Dublin.
Paul Bolger, director of Department of Health resources division.
Dr Eibhlin Connolly, deputy chief medical officer at the Department of Health.
Tracey Conroy, assistant secretary in the acute hospitals division of the Department of Health.
Dr John Cuddihy, interim director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).
Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD.
Colm Desmond, assistant secretary for corporate legislation, mental health, drugs policy and food safety division in the Department of Health.
Dr Lorraine Doherty, national clinical director for health protection in the HPSC.
Dr Mary Favier, president of the Irish College of General Practitioners.
Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer in the Department of Health.
Fergal Goodman, assistant secretary in the primary care division in the Department of Health.
Dr Colm Henry, HSE chief clinical officer.
Dr Kevin Kelleher, HSE assistant national director of public health.
Marita Kinsella, director of the national patient safety office in the Department of Health.
David Leach, HSE deputy national director of communications.
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan, assistant secretary in Department of Health social care division.
Dr Jeanette McCallion, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA) medical assessor.
Tom McGuinness, assistant national director at HSE office of emergency planning.
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian, HSE lead for integrated care.
Prof Philip Nolan, chair of Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group and president of Maynooth University.
Kate O’Flaherty, head of health and wellbeing at Department of Health.
Dr Darina O’Flanagan, special adviser to NPHET at Department of Health.
Dr Siobhán O’Sullivan, chief bioethics officer at Department of Health.
Dr Michael Power, national clinical lead of HSE critical care programme and consultant in intensive care medicine at Beaumont Hospital.
Phelim Quinn, chief executive of Health Information and Quality Authority (Hiqa).
Dr Máirín Ryan, deputy chief executive and director of health technology assessment at Hiqa.
Dr Alan Smith, Department of Health deputy chief medical officer.
Dr Breda Smyth, HSE director of health and public health medicine.
David Walsh, HSE national director of community operations.
Deirdre Watters, head of communications at Department of Health.
Liam Woods, HSE national director of acute operations.
Lorraine Doherty, HPSC clinical director for health protection.
Paul Bolger, director of Department of Health resources division.
Dr Eibhlin Connolly, deputy chief medical officer at the Department of Health.
Tracey Conroy, assistant secretary in the acute hospitals division of the Department of Health.
Dr John Cuddihy, interim director of the Health Protection Surveillance Centre (HPSC).
Dr Cillian de Gascun, director of the National Virus Reference Laboratory in UCD.
Colm Desmond, assistant secretary for corporate legislation, mental health, drugs policy and food safety division in the Department of Health.
Dr Lorraine Doherty, national clinical director for health protection in the HPSC.
Dr Mary Favier, president of the Irish College of General Practitioners.
Dr Ronan Glynn, deputy chief medical officer in the Department of Health.
Fergal Goodman, assistant secretary in the primary care division in the Department of Health.
Dr Colm Henry, HSE chief clinical officer.
Dr Kevin Kelleher, HSE assistant national director of public health.
Marita Kinsella, director of the national patient safety office in the Department of Health.
David Leach, HSE deputy national director of communications.
Dr Kathleen Mac Lellan, assistant secretary in Department of Health social care division.
Dr Jeanette McCallion, Health Products Regulatory Authority (HPRA) medical assessor.
Tom McGuinness, assistant national director at HSE office of emergency planning.
Dr Siobhán Ní Bhrian, HSE lead for integrated care.
Prof Philip Nolan, chair of Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group and president of Maynooth University.
Kate O’Flaherty, head of health and wellbeing at Department of Health.
Dr Darina O’Flanagan, special adviser to NPHET at Department of Health.
Dr Siobhán O’Sullivan, chief bioethics officer at Department of Health.
Dr Michael Power, national clinical lead of HSE critical care programme and consultant in intensive care medicine at Beaumont Hospital.
Phelim Quinn, chief executive of Health Information and Quality Authority (Hiqa).
Dr Máirín Ryan, deputy chief executive and director of health technology assessment at Hiqa.
Dr Alan Smith, Department of Health deputy chief medical officer.
Dr Breda Smyth, HSE director of health and public health medicine.
David Walsh, HSE national director of community operations.
Deirdre Watters, head of communications at Department of Health.
Liam Woods, HSE national director of acute operations.
Lorraine Doherty, HPSC clinical director for health protection.
You'd hope that with all those voices present there's reasonably thorough scrutiny and an awareness of how these policies impact other areas of the health service. As opposed to any one person having their word treated as gospel and a blinkered focus on the virus alone.
If there is never a vaccine then the best informed decisions at the time will have just offset the pain.
I really doubt that we won't develop a vaccine though.
Bastards
I gave 50€ to my favourite pub/restaurant as part of a crowdfunding campaign for local bars and restaurants. That would have entitled me to five beers "for free" as soon as they reopen. So we went there last Friday and I ended up having seven, but forgot about the voucher. Well, at least a reason to go back.
So he’s an expert in virology and putting his wanger in his mates’ pints. Sounds like the man for the job, alright.
Oh right, yeah. With herd immunity (and, usually, vaccines) the goal is to stop people becoming infected. Even if repeat infections can’t be prevented, though, the second and subsequent infections with any virus are almost always much less severe. That’s why the swine flu pandemic didn’t kill as many elderly as first feared. Most people born before the 1950s had already been exposed to a version of H1N1 flu virus, so got quite a mild illness. Catching COVID-19 may not give you permanent (or even long term) immunity but it will almost certainly give you some protection.
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I’ve given them about 500 PLN total, so that’s about £100. I don’t get a discount, free visit or even any pre-booking rights.Bastards
I gave 50€ to my favourite pub/restaurant as part of a crowdfunding campaign for local bars and restaurants. That would have entitled me to five beers "for free" as soon as they reopen. So we went there last Friday and I ended up having seven, but forgot about the voucher. Well, at least a reason to go back.
It's just not possible to say this yet. The UK's Q1 growth figures were better than the Eurozone and the other main EU economies, but we will have to wait for Q2 to see the true effects.
If the UK can keep growth above it's neighbours and the number of Covid patients under the NHS capacity, that would mean they have achieved their goals. I would prefer they prioritised minimising deaths over all else, but a lot of people in the country don't see it that way.
This is all based on the premise the virus is still completely out of control though, which isn't really the case. The key factors they need is numbers to be down enough to test anyone with symptoms immediately, to be flexible in that individual schools can close again if there is a concern with cases of people attending, and to have necessary measures in place within the schools to control and monitor things correctly.
We are talking about a week and a half from now and realistically we are going to be at the first of those points by then, and the main thing obstructing the other two is less the virus and more people being obstructive to it. Over 3 weeks is enough time to put measures in place considering it should have been being discussed the whole time.
On your second point. Again, I keep saying this, but if that was the aim, we should have gone into lockdown MUCH sooner, and been fully monitering the case numbers MUCH MUCH sooner. We did neither of these things. I agree we should have done, obviously, but we didn't, and there isn't really much point plugging a leak in a boat after it's sitting at the bottom of the lake. You'll just drown yourself trying. There is an epidemic in care homes. The number of "elderly" or vulnerable who have died is already around 60,000...I know people don't want to accept it but the final number at this point isn't going to be far off the number if we'd done nothing at all. The main factor in saving lives at this point is and was making sure the NHS isn't overwhelmed.
Basically we waited until our last line of defence was in danger of getting breached before accepting we needed to do anything. It's not much use at this point trying to pretend we can still hide behind the other lines that aren't there anymore. How you monitor casse numbers and make sure they drop at this point changes little whether you start doing it now or in a month's time.
THis is also completely ignoring again the fact that we have a quite unique problem in this country with the sheer number of families who will struggle to survive due to the "economic impact". The number outweighs the likely death toll from the virus if 100% of the population got it. It's not a minor factor you just glance at and chuck to one side. At this point it's an absolutely massive concern that will threaten to overshadow the virus itself if it's not taken as seriously. THere are entire communities where i am who will be under threat. The same people who have used this as a stick to beat the tories with for years are the ones who are determined to ignore it just because it's no longer a weapon they can use, which makes me think that really they've never really had to experience or fully appreciate the scale of the problem. It's just ceased to be important because doing something to help suddenly isn't as simple as ranting from behind a computer or phone screen.
I don't think our government has done a good job at all, but at this point politics are nothing to do with it. I would put money on the fact the people advising the government at this stage are taking all these factors into consideration and coming up with a calculated plan that tries to balance them against each other. It is literally their job and what they spend all day doing, while clearly a vast majority of the people moaning about it have not done this. The biggest problem in all this is it took the government FAR too long to start listening to them.
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Of course the UK should have locked down earlier. That isn't a good reason to reduce the half arsed lockdown that did occur far too early just because not quite so many people are dying every day.
Cost benefit analysis shows it is 5 times cheaper to save a life vs unlocking too early. More so in the US where the value of life is calculated at a far higher rate. But Bojo and Trump.either don't know what they are doing or don't give a shit.