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Do you think there will be a Deal or No Deal?


  • Total voters
    194
  • Poll closed .

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
Tariffs are paid by the importer not the exporter . Johnson agreed to the Customs Border being in the Irish Sea, even if he didn't realise it and whatever happens now there has to be a customs border between the EU and the UK not only between Ireland and the UK but at all the other border points eg Dover.
If Johnson were insane enough to do this then the borders will be virtually sealed. Little would go in or out.
Yes, sorry, my mistake and happy to be corrected. I agree with the rest of what you have said.
 

MikeUpNorth

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Tariffs are paid by the importer not the exporter . Johnson agreed to the Customs Border being in the Irish Sea, even if he didn't realise it and whatever happens now there has to be a customs border between the EU and the UK not only between Ireland and the UK but at all the other border points eg Dover.
If Johnson were insane enough to do this then the borders will be virtually sealed. Little would go in or out.
Around 150,000 Irish trucks use the 'land bridge' across the UK each year to export goods to the rest of the EU. Two-thirds of Irish goods exporters, I believe.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Around 150,000 Irish trucks use the 'land bridge' across the UK each year to export goods to the rest of the EU. Two-thirds of Irish goods exporters, I believe.
Yes but if the UK do the unthinkable then passing through the UK would not be an option and the ferries between the north of France and Ireland could become very busy and they will avoid the inevitable queues (even with a deal and no insanity) at Dover and Liverpool/UK Irish Sea port now that there is no customs union with the UK so it could even be quicker strangely enough.
 

JPRouve

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I am simply pointing out that across the world all countries seek to protect what they see as their vital interests, including the EU and the UK. In most cases this amounts to protectionism of some kind for certain industries /services and the only way to try to create a so called level playing field is via some form of protectionism that stops others entering your market, whether that be on price, on quality, on health & safety whatever reasons, your level playing field only relates to those things you want it to relate to, and to those countries you want to do business with and its effectively a quid pro quo arrangement.

However in essence this is nothing new in various forms it has existed almost since the first trade deals were ever struck. A 'level playing field' implies some kind of 'fairness' exists, but only to those deemed eligible to enter 'the field' You ask some of the third world countries what they think about 'level playing fields'.

If you are a small country but relatively prosperous, say like Ireland, and already on the field, then clearly you would be mad to want to leave/alter the field . If however you are a large country, but impoverished and can't get on to the field, or even be allowed in some circumstances to approach the gate to the field, then you want to look to somewhere else to do business. This is where the UK will want to seek alternative business outside the EU, so why should it be a threat to the EU? The only reason being that the UK would now be perceived as a threat to the protectionism of EU, even when it would be dealing with countries who are currently, not even allowed to beg at the gates of the EU!
No that's not what you pointed out, you talked absolute nonsense and are now trying to wiggle your way out of it with even more nonsense.
 

MikeUpNorth

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Yes but if the UK do the unthinkable then passing through the UK would not be an option and the ferries between the north of France and Ireland could become very busy and they will avoid the inevitable queues (even with a deal and no insanity) at Dover and Liverpool/UK Irish Sea port now that there is no customs union with the UK so it could even be quicker strangely enough.
Not sure there is currently anything like the ferry capacity that would be needed to circumvent UK transit. And apparently the sea journey (40 hours minimum) is generally too long for perishable goods.
 

MikeUpNorth

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By the way, my money is still on the UK conceding the major points at the 11th hour to agree an FTA and looking the fool. And then repeated legal skirmishes over interpretation and implementation of the agreement in the years to come.
 

JPRouve

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I cannot see anything in the Bill which would prevent the EU27 from imposing tariffs to UK goods due to the UK violating the WA. If tariffs are imposed and we ignore the tariffs then the EU27 can simply refuse to allow the goods to enter their jurisdiction.

The only changes I can make out in the Bill are to disapply customs arrangements between NI and GB, which the UK Government agreed must take place (in certain circumstances) back in January.
You confused me here, the issue is with the custom arrangement and the fact that according to the NI protocol in the absence of an FTA the commission are the ones calling the shots in NI and the Irish sea either becomes a border or the UK as a whole have to follow EU laws. My understanding is that the government wants to ignore that part.
 

Frosty

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Yes I can hear you Clem Fandango!
You confused me here, the issue is with the custom arrangement and the fact that according to the NI protocol in the absence of an FTA the commission are the ones calling the shots in NI and the Irish sea either becomes a border. My understanding is that the government wants to ignore that part.
Yes, you are right. I think I was talking at cross purposes which confused matters.
 

Paul the Wolf

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Not sure there is currently anything like the ferry capacity that would be needed to circumvent UK transit. And apparently the sea journey (40 hours minimum) is generally too long for perishable goods.
In that scenario the ferries to the UK would no longer be needed so they could be diverted from Dover/Calais for example. The crossing is about 14/18 hours and perishable goods are kept in refrigerated trucks. Even if you add a few extra hours for north/east EU destination goods it could still be a lot quicker than queuing to get across the Irish Sea, driving across the UK and queuing again at Dover and the same on the return journey. I think this route could be used much more even with a deal.

Many things that were taken for granted before this charade will change.
 

Smores

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By the way, my money is still on the UK conceding the major points at the 11th hour to agree an FTA and looking the fool. And then repeated legal skirmishes over interpretation and implementation of the agreement in the years to come.
They won't be considered foolish by those who voted for them, it'll be spun as a great victory. They voted for a win and they'll have got a win.

I was contemplating the other day that it's actually a very rare feeling to vote for something and get a direct sense of return/achievement. As much as I'd mock brexiteers reasoning i can certainly understand the value in that. They won't give that up due to details
 

Fluctuation0161

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:lol: Ha, ha... the sort that clears the nostrils and the head and allows you to recognize that a government with an 80 seat majority can do almost anything it wants ...and will!
When was the last time a UK government spoke about plans to break international law in Parliament?
 

Fluctuation0161

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Technically I think they are supposed to Build hard border infrastructure to protect the integrity of the single market?

Not that they will and boris knows it
Boris doesn't care. All he cares about is his rich backers.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...nt-hammond-was-right-to-query-no-deal-backers

Ex-top civil servant: Hammond was right to query no-deal backers

‘They are shorting the pound and the country’ warns Nick Macpherson of Boris Johnson’s hedge fund supporters
 
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Buster15

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As stupid and incomprehensible as it is, if I were the EU or Ireland, I wouldn't rule out the UK doing anything at this point and would be preparing for the worst. No matter how insane it might sound. We have morons in charge.
Morons who are perfectly happy to trash our economy for what. A pipedream.
Taking back control of our borders? What about the last month. A record net immigration influx of some 350,000.
Some taking back control.
 

nickm

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It is ludicrous. The EU have some of the sharpest trade negotiators on the planet, people who are on the detail and know how to calculate the trade offs, while we have a bunch of amateurs who think negotiations are like bluffing and folding in poker.
 

nickm

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:lol: Ha, ha... the sort that clears the nostrils and the head and allows you to recognize that a government with an 80 seat majority can do almost anything it wants ...and will!
Not without consequences.
 

nickm

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I am simply pointing out that across the world all countries seek to protect what they see as their vital interests, including the EU and the UK. In most cases this amounts to protectionism of some kind for certain industries /services and the only way to try to create a so called level playing field is via some form of protectionism that stops others entering your market, whether that be on price, on quality, on health & safety whatever reasons, your level playing field only relates to those things you want it to relate to, and to those countries you want to do business with and its effectively a quid pro quo arrangement.
FFS that's why we have trade deals - to agree how these distortions will be smoothed out and the mechanisms for doing so. A level playing field is about eliminating distortions within a free trade area so competition is fair.

However in essence this is nothing new in various forms it has existed almost since the first trade deals were ever struck. A 'level playing field' implies some kind of 'fairness' exists, but only to those deemed eligible to enter 'the field' You ask some of the third world countries what they think about 'level playing fields'.
Well done for noticing one of the great benefits to us of the single market (which we helped birth) we are about to jettison.

If you are a small country but relatively prosperous, say like Ireland, and already on the field, then clearly you would be mad to want to leave/alter the field . If however you are a large country, but impoverished and can't get on to the field, or even be allowed in some circumstances to approach the gate to the field, then you want to look to somewhere else to do business. This is where the UK will want to seek alternative business outside the EU, so why should it be a threat to the EU? The only reason being that the UK would now be perceived as a threat to the protectionism of EU, even when it would be dealing with countries who are currently, not even allowed to beg at the gates of the EU!
We are free to trade with anyone we want. But it is blindingly obvious that if we want to access the single market, we have to accept the rules that enable that market to work equally for all its participants.

But let's put this another way, about the realities of power, since you seem to understand it in a domestic context: the EU is an economic superpower and thus gets to set the rules of the game. Arguments about "sovereignty" are for children, this is about who has the power and where the leverage and mutual interests lie on each side. The fact is the UK's range of negotiating options is narrower than the EU's, that is just a function of our relative sizes.
 

africanspur

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Every time I think I can't hate these utter twats more, or that I can't be even more ashamed of our government and frankly much of the population of the country, they find a new and unexpected way to prove me wrong.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Every time I think I can't hate these utter twats more, or that I can't be even more ashamed of our government and frankly much of the population of the country, they find a new and unexpected way to prove me wrong.
Oh man. I feel for you. I’m probably a little unusual for an Irish man in that I’ve a lot of love for Britain and British people. We’re way more similar than most Irish people would like to admit. So it breaks my heart to see what’s happened over there in the last 10 years. Obviously, makes me glad I moved home when I did but it’s such a crying shame to see what’s happened to the place.
 

Cheimoon

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My newspaper suggested the UK is playing these games to try and get the EU and US to compete with each other to obtain a trade advantage with the UK. Looks like that might not work out quite as planned, then.
 

Wibble

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Oh man. I feel for you. I’m probably a little unusual for an Irish man in that I’ve a lot of love for Britain and British people. We’re way more similar than most Irish people would like to admit. So it breaks my heart to see what’s happened over there in the last 10 years. Obviously, makes me glad I moved home when I did but it’s such a crying shame to see what’s happened to the place.
I hardly recognise the place. :(
 

nimic

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My newspaper suggested the UK is playing these games to try and get the EU and US to compete with each other to obtain a trade advantage with the UK. Looks like that might not work out quite as planned, then.
That'd be a really, really dumb negotiating strategy. Which makes it very pausible.
 

Maticmaker

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No that's not what you pointed out, you talked absolute nonsense and are now trying to wiggle your way out of it with even more nonsense.
You keep slinging out the word 'nonsense', but with no explanation... I respectfully suggest that' is what is nonsense...absolutely!
 

JPRouve

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You keep slinging out the word 'nonsense', but with no explanation... I respectfully suggest that' is what is nonsense...absolutely!
You used China as an example in a conversation about FTAs, that's nonsensical, China do not have an FTA with the EU.
 

Maticmaker

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this is about who has the power and where the leverage and mutual interests lie on each side.
Agreed, but not quite sure why you keep going on about the EU's level playing field since we are now outside that playing field and must look at life differently, this will of course influence what will be required to 'sell into' the EU in future. As will the EU countries that wish to 'sell in to us' realize they will need to look at life differently as well.

I was always worried from the start when people described the UK's leaving the EU as a 'divorce situation', because in such situations old grievances rumble on and will (for years probably) affect how both sides view the other, sad, but fairly inevitable. The current rumpus over possible changes to the WA are a good example of that. I suspect negotiations are going to get even more hyped and disjointed as a no deal becomes...well virtually inevitable., with both sides 'banging the door' as they leave.
 

JPRouve

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Agreed, but not quite sure why you keep going on about the EU's level playing field since we are now outside that playing field and must look at life differently, this will of course influence what will be required to 'sell into' the EU in future. As will the EU countries that wish to 'sell in to us' realize they will need to look at life differently as well.

I was always worried from the start when people described the UK's leaving the EU as a 'divorce situation', because in such situations old grievances rumble on and will (for years probably) affect how both sides view the other, sad, but fairly inevitable. The current rumpus over possible changes to the WA are a good example of that. I suspect negotiations are going to get even more hyped and disjointed as a no deal becomes...well virtually inevitable., with both sides 'banging the door' as they leave.
Because the UK are trying to get free access to the single market, that's why there are trade negotiations. If the UK wanted to be outside they would not negotiate a deal and simply put borders and customs checks where they are supposed to in accordance with WTO rules.
 

sun_tzu

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Wonder how Cummings and Johnson will spin economic sanctions.

How many MPs will actually knowingly vote for a BIll that contravenes International Law?

In the meantime the UK have decided to have a new National Anthem:

Im not sure they will get the opportunity

most likley we get an amendment proposed by a back bench conservative MP associated with the original deal (theresa may?) that basically preserves the original conditions

I think she could carry 20 - 30 mps who would back her amendment and perhaps the same amount who would abstain as they eye the future and think it might look bad on their voting records

If the opposition parties backed it (I think the regional parties and libs would - pretty sure starmer would (though there may be some brexity labour MPs who wouldnt back a conservative amendment?) they would have enough votes and the bill would pass amended without an opportunity to vote on a version that actually contravenes international law

Though who knows Boris might just bumble along for a month or two then try and prorouge parliament again for some unfathomable reason (but i can imagine Mogg looking for precedent from hundreds of years ago)... and again we get the pro eu judges, remoaners lines trotted out again that boris and cummings seems to think they need to get his core support energized
 

Maticmaker

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You used China as an example in a conversation about FTAs, that's nonsensical, China do not have an FTA with the EU.
I used China's dumping of steel on the EU markets, because the demand in China itself diminished, creating an excess which they dumped, all over the world, it was nothing to do with having a FTA, they were able to access the single market without a FTA, and as I think Paul the Wolf pointed out, the tariffs were then change.

It was simply to illustrate (see rest of that post) the point that all countries (if they are able to) will try to protect certain industries they see as being vital.

Taking things out of context is of course nonsense!
 

Paul the Wolf

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Im not sure they will get the opportunity

most likley we get an amendment proposed by a back bench conservative MP associated with the original deal (theresa may?) that basically preserves the original conditions

I think she could carry 20 - 30 mps who would back her amendment and perhaps the same amount who would abstain as they eye the future and think it might look bad on their voting records

If the opposition parties backed it (I think the regional parties and libs would - pretty sure starmer would (though there may be some brexity labour MPs who wouldnt back a conservative amendment?) they would have enough votes and the bill would pass amended without an opportunity to vote on a version that actually contravenes international law

Though who knows Boris might just bumble along for a month or two then try and prorouge parliament again for some unfathomable reason (but i can imagine Mogg looking for precedent from hundreds of years ago)... and again we get the pro eu judges, remoaners lines trotted out again that boris and cummings seems to think they need to get his core support energized
I also saw that EU lawyers have the opinion that the UK government have already breached International Law just by tabling the Bill.