Could work thoughWhile Trump is just gonna wing it
I don’t think so. Trump is just going to spout all kinds of shite, which his followers will lap up but normal people will see straight through. I can’t really see the debates move the needle too much, to be honest.Could work though
Shit’s already baked in a bit too much for the debates to sway undecideds.Could work though
People worrying about Arizona are . Cindy McCain just endorsed Biden, AZ should be a wrap (as a native Arizonan, there is no family more respected than the McCain family in the state).
Look, if Biden takes FL and AZ, he will likely only win by 1-2 points max so it makes sense that some polls may have Trump ahead from time to time. Im not worried about a 2016 polling error as they fixed the issues to the point where 2018 was actually quite accurate.
Interesting.Not much. Arizona Republican politics is basically in the Trumper camp, so anything a McCain says will be worth as much as being endorsed by Jeff Flake. Biden's only redeeming value is that he's a centrist, otherwise Arizona wouldn't be remotely in play.
There’s a reason Jeff Flake didn’t bother wasting his time attempting to run for re-election. Being an anti-Trump Republican in AZ basically means you’re a RINO with no constituency.Interesting.
Not much. Arizona Republican politics is basically in the Trumper camp, so anything a McCain says will be worth as much as being endorsed by Jeff Flake. Biden's only redeeming value is that he's a centrist, otherwise Arizona wouldn't be remotely in play.
Na, the problem with yours and Raoul's reasoning is that you think the target demographic for Cindy McCain is the Trumpers in AZ. Nope, the most important constituency in AZ are suburban women in Maricopa county. As someone who grew up in the Maricopa county suburbs, I know from personal experience that these voters retain a lot of respect for the McCain family.Agree with you - think Cindy McCain's influence in AZ is overrated - GOP is Trump's bitch now.
Spot on. I recently spent a couple of years in AZ and did a bit of canvassing during the mid terms and the McCains just didn't hold much sway among anyone (even during John McCain's final months). The likelihood that anyone, whether moderate Republicans or centrist Dems, are going to suddenly have a political epiphany about Biden 6 weeks out because a wealthy window of a dead Republican in Sedona endorses him, are slim to none.Agree with you - think Cindy McCain's influence in AZ is overrated - GOP is Trump's bitch now.
It's not about a political epiphany, it's about positive reinforcement. Motivates more people that were already leaning towards voting Biden to punch that ticket. Not sure what type of canvassing you did but it doesn't add up for me, no offense.Spot on. I recently spent a couple of years in AZ and did a bit of canvassing during the mid terms and the McCains just didn't hold much sway among anyone (even during John McCain's final months). The likelihood that anyone, whether moderate Republicans or centrist Dems, are going to suddenly have a political epiphany about Biden 6 weeks out because a wealthy window of a dead Republican in Sedona endorses him, are slim to none.
who cares? debates are largely useless and turning a blind eye to the protests does nothing but hurt Biden’s chances even more.While Trump is just gonna wing it
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Indeed, McCain himself was at negative 7 net approval when he died (after getting a small surge from Dems), so he must have terrible numbers with Arizona Republicans.Not much. Arizona Republican politics is basically in the Trumper camp, so anything a McCain says will be worth as much as being endorsed by Jeff Flake.
Trump's internal polling must also be showing weakness in OH since he just went there for two rallies the other day. Ordinarily these types of trips would be saved for places like PA, FL, NC etc.This poll just tipped Ohio ever so slightly blue in 538's model, although still really a toss-up. Also very good PA... surprised their total model didn't move a bit more on this, still 77% Biden chances, same as earlier.
I think Biden will win the rust belt and lose FL, AZ.Trump's internal polling must also be showing weakness in OH since he just went there for two rallies the other day. Ordinarily these types of trips would be saved for places like PA, FL, NC etc.
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Agree with the last bit. Polling in places like FL, AZ, GA, NC, IA is too close to definitively call. In either case, if Biden happens to win OH, not winning FL will not matter since picking up OH would mean he won every rust belt state, thereby choking off all plausible Trump paths to 270.I think Biden will win the rust belt and lose FL, AZ.
The issue is that Trump will likely be the leader after the first night, and he won't accept the legitimacy of the remaining ballots.
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Her and Schumer are house cats playing with hyenas. Who would you have right now as leader of the Democrats in both parties? I would love to ask Berbatrick too but I think he has me on ignore.Ladies and gentlemen. The opposition party.
AOC is a bit young at the moment. But for me it as to be a fighter. Like the look of Katie Porter.Her and Schumer are house cats playing with hyenas. Who would you have right now as leader of the Democrats in both parties? I would love to ask Berbatrick too but I think he has me on ignore.
Bingo, she is pretty amazing. He's not everyone's cup of tea and his run in this cycles primary was I'll advised but I think Eric Swalwell has the balls to ask the right questions. I think the Dems have a few people that we would all get behind if the 80 year olds would just fecking retire. The likes of Diane Finestein and old Chuck Grassley have no business being where they are today. This country needs a modern perspective from both parties yet we have Biden/Pelosi/Schumer who will very likely let Trump away with everything and on the other side the are howling about the commies.AOC is a bit young at the moment. But for me it as to be a fighter. Like the look of Katie Porter.
A large portion of this country just loves watching pigeons win at chess & apparently relates to them.I think the real issue is that the democratic leadership have all lived through a different time in DC politics, and try to bring that experience to bear on the twitter generation. There was a time when a politician lying on the floor and getting caught would be the end of them. Trump can watch a video of himself contradicting himself and say it never happened, and have no political consequences. He can f*ck a porn star while his wife is pregnant with no repercussions from the Christians. He can sell out his country for a tower in Moscow with no repercussions from his base.
That kind of shift is seismic, and the old skool don't know how to deal with it. To be fair neither do I. I thought Schiff did as well as he could in the impeachment trials.
It's a real problem. It's trying to win a match of football when the opposition keeps picking the up the ball and throwing it in, and the referee signals for a goal.
That's what's so frustrating. It's not hyperbole to say some on the right got angrier because Obama put his feet up on the desk than they did on trump's recent comments about destroying ballots if he says there is fraud. Look at the foaming at the mouth over Beau Biden while trump's handbag design thief of a daughter and shitty property developer son in law are taking in the cash. Their net worth has exploded over the last 4 years. I would also tell them that Kushner's sister was in China 3 years ago offering visas for investing (bailing out) the Kushner family but but but Clinton is the usual response. They don't even have the knowledge to talk about whitewater, instead they think the Clinton's are serial killers whose last victim was Seth Rich.I think the real issue is that the democratic leadership have all lived through a different time in DC politics, and try to bring that experience to bear on the twitter generation. There was a time when a politician lying on the floor and getting caught would be the end of them. Trump can watch a video of himself contradicting himself and say it never happened, and have no political consequences. He can f*ck a porn star while his wife is pregnant with no repercussions from the Christians. He can sell out his country for a tower in Moscow with no repercussions from his base.
That kind of shift is seismic, and the old skool don't know how to deal with it. To be fair neither do I. I thought Schiff did as well as he could in the impeachment trials.
It's a real problem. It's trying to win a match of football when the opposition keeps picking the up the ball and throwing it in, and the referee signals for a goal.
Fentanyl.
Good call.Fentanyl.
Wouldn’t surprise me if Biden dropped NH and didn’t gain PA. That said, I believe AZ to be a shoe in, and Georgia to be competitive. NC and even SC are tight too. If trump picks up florida, he has a good chance of stealing the election (legally)Agree with the last bit. Polling in places like FL, AZ, GA, NC, IA is too close to definitively call. In either case, if Biden happens to win OH, not winning FL will not matter since picking up OH would mean he won every rust belt state, thereby choking off all plausible Trump paths to 270.
Well I think Latinos in AZ already dislike Trump to a fair amount as they tend to be from Mexico and Central America rather than Cuba (like you allude to). My only skepticism over the national view on AZ Latinos is the extent to which they will affect the election. While Latinos make up a significant portion of the population (may even be the majority in the near future), most of them are either undocumented or not citizens, unless this has changed drastically in the 3-4 years since I left. It's really their children that Dems are relying on to swing elections in the future and I'm unconvinced that 1) there are enough of these second-generation Latinos in general and that 2) there are enough of them that are motivated to vote. 1) is likelier than 2) based on the people I know at least but maybe there is data proving this to be otherwise that hopefully proves me wrong. This may change by 2024 or even 2028 but for now, the Dems best bet in AZ is still attracting educated suburban white voters.@sport2793 Agree with your AZ take for the most part. One thing I’m not sure you considered is his authoritarianism stance lately could move Latinos in maricopa county away from him slightly. Especially as AZ Latinos are wayyyy less Cuban than say Florida.
I do think flake could mount a good gubernatorial run should he want to, but he’s done in this current gop climate on a national level.