SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Pogue Mahone

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It wouldn't explain the same spikes being seen in Holland, Czech Republic, France, Belgium, Spain & Ireland etc though?

It's possibly good news to see the "curve" in terms of deaths across the same countries being so much shallower than in Spring though (excl. Czech Republic):
Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
 

Wibble

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Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
Worried about how bad Croatia will get before the offspring leaves in late Nov. Then again he will be heading back to the US so ...........
 

blue blue

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New lockdown in NI. Apparently they came up with it in the middle of the night.

I wouldn't mind new restrictions if I didn't know that horrible lot in Belfast are making it up as they go along. They don't even seem to have a vague hint of a long term plan
Long term plan? As far as I can see the long term plan is to get a vaccine.
However.
It is now being openly discussed that we may never find a vaccine. They didn't find a vaccine for SARS and it only died out because it mutated and became less dangerous. It took years. The Spanish flu after WW1 did the same.

It may be we are heading towards a scenario where the truth of the matter is just too unpalatable. I'm getting reports that we may even be in this for 5 years or so. These theories are not out of the question.

I'm not a virologist but surely there comes a time when we know we are losing the battle to find a vaccine. When is that? How long do the government wait until they say the search could take longer than we thought and we need to enforce track and trace to close the virus down. As far as I know only about 10% of the population have had the virus so potentially we could be looking at 400,000 deaths if this continues untracked.

We may be getting close to a time when the government will have to start enforcing stricter rules. We would need a new Covid law enforcement system. Maybe get the army on the streets. The scenes in Liverpool last night were the last straw for me. I'm just about ready to say lets get tough on this. People without the app immediately get fined as do people who don't use or enable its use. Spot fines for not wearing a mask etc.
 

Stack

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Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
I wonder if a mixture of complacency and also fatigue i hurting lots of places. Its been a stressful year all over on many different fronts.
 

Smores

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Hearing Sturgeon tell Scots to stop travelling to Blackpool is one of the oddest stories of the week :lol:

Why is that even a thing? No wonder they want to leave the UK if that's their experience.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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Hearing Sturgeon tell Scots to stop travelling to Blackpool is one of the oddest stories of the week :lol:

Why is that even a thing? No wonder they want to leave the UK if that's their experience.
Whenever I’ve been to Blackpool, it’s been full of Scots. They love it.
 

Wibble

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I'm not a virologist but surely there comes a time when we know we are losing the battle to find a vaccine. When is that?
At the moment not one of the numerous vaccines in development have failed and many are in stage 3 trials. So that point is very far away imo.
 

Brwned

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Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
Yeah I was taken aback when I read this yesterday. Good but grim summary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54482905

If seven days is a long time in politics, how long is seven months in a pandemic? To most here, it feels like an age, writes Rob Cameron, in Prague.
Back in March, the Czech Republic was feted for its rapid response to Covid, shutting its borders and swiftly locking down most of the economy. People were told to stay at home where possible. Masks were made compulsory indoors and out. Most respected the measures with good grace and humour.

By the end of June, an infamous dinner party was held on Prague's Charles Bridge to celebrate the end of "this difficult period of the coronavirus crisis" (although not to declare the virus itself vanquished, as is sometimes wrongly claimed). At that time, the country of 10.7 million was seeing 150 cases a day and had recorded 347 deaths in just over three months.

The sun shone. Holidays were booked. Masks and other restrictions were gleefully abandoned.
Today, the Czech Republic has both the highest and the fastest-growing daily number of new cases in Europe, with figures almost double those in the UK. The ratio of positive cases to tests stands at 30% - a number that terrifies epidemiologists.

The total death toll now stands at more than 800, but will almost certainly pass 1,000 by next week.

Officials warn the country's hospitals could soon become overwhelmed.

The track-and-trace system has struggled to keep up. Authorities are taking days - sometimes 14 - to contact people who might have come into contact with an infected person. Its helplines are permanently engaged.

"A difficult period lies ahead of us. We will need all hands on deck," Health Minister Roman Prymula, himself an epidemiologist, told a televised news briefing. Standing next to him on the podium was Prime Minister Andrej Babis, the man whom many Czechs blame for the current crisis. It was Mr Babis - it is widely believed - who vetoed a plan to re-introduce regulations on masks. In the end, the numbers began their inexorable climb to their current peak, and new measures are being introduced anyway.

They were too little, too late.

The PM has warned that a new lockdown cannot be ruled out and urged people to stay at home for the weekend.

Czechs, meanwhile, are trying to grapple with the myriad new rules and regulations coming into force on Monday. Pubs, restaurants and bars will only be able to seat a maximum of four people at one table, and must close at 20:00. Wi-fi will be switched off in shopping centres to put off young people from gathering. Only groups of two will be able to enter shops or shopping centres together, and children aged 12-15 will take turns doing online teaching on a class-by-class basis, to keep classes from mixing in schools.

Some scientists say the Czech numbers in March were so low it was wrong even to call it an epidemic. That, sadly, is no longer the case.
I think the aspect of (mis)fortune is downplayed way too much when talking about the "winners and losers" in this thing. With 80% not transmitting the virus while a small proportion of super spreaders drive most of it, all you need is a couple of incidents in short succession and things start to take off. There are obviously exceptional examples in Southeast and East Asia which warrant some deeper analysis of cultural and behavioural norms in dealing with crises going forward, but I don't think there's a while lot separating the rest.

The governments who look embarrassing are the ones who have to deal with the most serious outbreaks and get overwhelmed. I think we've made too big an assumption about what causes the other a lot of the time. The Czech government were praised for being proactive, then criticised for being too authoritarian and overreaching, now they're being criticised for being buffoons. Theoretically they could all be true in different contexts but it seems unlikely.
 

djembatheking

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Long term plan? As far as I can see the long term plan is to get a vaccine.
However.
It is now being openly discussed that we may never find a vaccine. They didn't find a vaccine for SARS and it only died out because it mutated and became less dangerous. It took years. The Spanish flu after WW1 did the same.

It may be we are heading towards a scenario where the truth of the matter is just too unpalatable. I'm getting reports that we may even be in this for 5 years or so. These theories are not out of the question.

I'm not a virologist but surely there comes a time when we know we are losing the battle to find a vaccine. When is that? How long do the government wait until they say the search could take longer than we thought and we need to enforce track and trace to close the virus down. As far as I know only about 10% of the population have had the virus so potentially we could be looking at 400,000 deaths if this continues untracked.

We may be getting close to a time when the government will have to start enforcing stricter rules. We would need a new Covid law enforcement system. Maybe get the army on the streets. The scenes in Liverpool last night were the last straw for me. I'm just about ready to say lets get tough on this. People without the app immediately get fined as do people who don't use or enable its use. Spot fines for not wearing a mask etc.
So would you fine people that don`t have a mobile phone or have an old one that doesn`t support the app ?
 

Sarni

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Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
Same thing as Poland. Because we did so well the first time with few casualties, people have stopped believing the virus is dangerous. It doesn't help when you have your prime minister saying 'virus has departed, it's no longer a threat' and other politicians proclaiming flu is far more dangerous. Basically 20-25% population either don't believe covid exists or think it's not dangerous to anybody. Even now with hospitals overwhelmed and people dying at 100 per day rate people are just laughing at that. There is no way we can overcome this, we will have to just accept that by the end of the year 20k - 30k people will die of covid-19 and those people will still think it's a funny flu. I just pray none of my family are in that 20-30k.
 

onemanarmy

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If I book a Eurostar ticket to go to Amsterdam, will anyone stop me? Will I be interrogated on how 'essential' my travel is?
No one will probably stop you. However, hardly anything will be open to visit. Museums are closing, bars and restaurants have closed... You'd need to wear a facemask everywhere. I don't know the purpose of your travels, but if you'd like to visit the city, I'd put it on hold.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Yeah I was taken aback when I read this yesterday. Good but grim summary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54482905



I think the aspect of (mis)fortune is downplayed way too much when talking about the "winners and losers" in this thing. With 80% not transmitting the virus while a small proportion of super spreaders drive most of it, all you need is a couple of incidents in short succession and things start to take off. There are obviously exceptional examples in Southeast and East Asia which warrant some deeper analysis of cultural and behavioural norms in dealing with crises going forward, but I don't think there's a while lot separating the rest.

The governments who look embarrassing are the ones who have to deal with the most serious outbreaks and get overwhelmed. I think we've made too big an assumption about what causes the other a lot of the time. The Czech government were praised for being proactive, then criticised for being too authoritarian and overreaching, now they're being criticised for being buffoons. Theoretically they could all be true in different contexts but it seems unlikely.
Yeah, I think you’re probably right. No matter how competent the government they will be called frauds and liars if the virus gets out if control, which can happen no matter how diligent their efforts.

Although this shouldn’t provide any excuse to the obvious incompetents. The likes of Trump and Bolsonaro. Honorable mention for Boris et al’s dithering in the first few weeks.
 

blue blue

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At the moment not one of the numerous vaccines in development have failed and many are in stage 3 trials. So that point is very far away imo.
Not one of the trials has succeeded yet either.

Not that he should be taken too seriously but Boris himself said we may not find a vaccine.
 

finneh

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Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
Did CZ really get an initial wave would probably be the question?

I agree they're ahead of the curve, however the curve of every country (excluding them) when compared to Spring still appears to be much shallower than the first wave in terms of deaths of course.

During March deaths were increasing by 20% a day up until just after lockdown (UK 30 deaths to 760 deaths over a 17 day period March 18th to April 4th). If the same were to apply from the 37 deaths on 22nd September we'd have seen 760 deaths towards the end of last week.
 

11101

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The EU is now publishing a weekly Europe wide regional case map here. Latest version:



And the week before:

 
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Fluctuation0161

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Students have still been made to pay landlords or the unis for their accommodation so they’re hardly going to go and live in the accommodation and just stay in the house - plus most of the learning is online now.
Exactly, and therein lies the problem, the government should have seen this coming a mile off and taken action.

I don't blame the students, they were not advised to stay at their family homes.
 

11101

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Nice map from the EU showing where you want to be, and where you dont want to be. Western Europe is a mess.

 

Pogue Mahone

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Did CZ really get an initial wave would probably be the question?

I agree they're ahead of the curve, however the curve of every country (excluding them) when compared to Spring still appears to be much shallower than the first wave in terms of deaths of course.

During March deaths were increasing by 20% a day up until just after lockdown (UK 30 deaths to 760 deaths over a 17 day period March 18th to April 4th). If the same were to apply from the 37 deaths on 22nd September we'd have seen 760 deaths towards the end of last week.
The definition of deaths has changed in the uk since the first wave (28 day rule) so you’re comparing apples and oranges.

In general, though, you’re right. Deaths are not increasing as sharply in this wave as they did first time round. Which you’d expect. The elderly/vulnerable are better protected and we’ve got better at treating the very unwell. Thankfully. Of course it remains to be seen how much longer this curve keeps on rising. In March/April we has spring/summer just around the corner. Which can take the edge off a seasonal virus epidemic. Right now spring and summer seem a VERY long way away.
 

Wibble

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Not one of the trials has succeeded yet either.
True but with 33.4% of all attempted vaccine developments making it to market and 58.2% of vaccines that make it to stage 3 trials passing stage 3, with zero failures so far, we can still be reasonably optimistic.
 

MTF

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Czech Republic is just ahead of the curve (no pun intended) on cases and deaths for the other countries are sure to follow their current trend shortly.

Had no idea they were getting such a brutal second wave. I mainly remember the Czech Republic being held up as doing a fantastic job to crush the first wave (early widespread mask use etc) Wonder what’s gone wrong for them since?
One of the most consistent patterns with this seems to be that on a local level, if you haven't been hit hard once you're still susceptible. But no locality has been hit hard twice within just the span of lets call it 2-3 months.
 

Brwned

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So would you fine people that don`t have a mobile phone or have an old one that doesn`t support the app ?
If it became that important I'm sure we'd just replicate the little bluetooth "token" they have in Singapore. There's no evidence that contact tracing is a solution to the UK's problem though. If there was a point where they were able to "crush" the curve of the virus to a point where contact tracing was manageable at speed then it could be a useful tool, but that's all it should be seen as, and we're nowhere near that. It was presented to the British public as a hail Mary solution and it appeals to the technocrats but the reality is just very far from that.

The fact it's taking the tracing system 14 days to notify one contact from an outbreak in Czech Republic now is just yet another example that even "good" countries can't work well when the community transmission is growing daily.

Yeah, I think you’re probably right. No matter how competent the government they will be called frauds and liars if the virus gets out if control, which can happen no matter how diligent their efforts.

Although this shouldn’t provide any excuse to the obvious incompetents. The likes of Trump and Bolsonaro. Honorable mention for Boris et al’s dithering in the first few weeks.
Agreed.

One of the most consistent patterns with this seems to be that on a local level, if you haven't been hit hard once you're still susceptible. But no locality has been hit hard twice within just the span of lets call it 2-3 months.
Yeah I've not looked into it much but that has seemed apparent. Worries about growing cases in places like New York still leave open the possibility that there's more to the story though.
 

MTF

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Interesting idea. Aren’t there regions in Spain that got hit twice in quick succession?
Not really familiar with what went on at local levels in much of Europe. Know a bit more about the US and Brazil, and so far in those I don't think you've had any cities see really hard numbers twice.
 

blue blue

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True but with 33.4% of all attempted vaccine developments making it to market and 58.2% of vaccines that make it to stage 3 trials passing stage 3, with zero failures so far, we can still be reasonably optimistic.
I bow to your superior knowledge and research but are you saying there is a 1 in 3 chance a vaccine will make it market and a slightly more then 50/50 chance the current trials will produce a vaccine?
 

sugar_kane

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Yeah I was taken aback when I read this yesterday. Good but grim summary.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-54482905



I think the aspect of (mis)fortune is downplayed way too much when talking about the "winners and losers" in this thing. With 80% not transmitting the virus while a small proportion of super spreaders drive most of it, all you need is a couple of incidents in short succession and things start to take off. There are obviously exceptional examples in Southeast and East Asia which warrant some deeper analysis of cultural and behavioural norms in dealing with crises going forward, but I don't think there's a while lot separating the rest.

The governments who look embarrassing are the ones who have to deal with the most serious outbreaks and get overwhelmed. I think we've made too big an assumption about what causes the other a lot of the time. The Czech government were praised for being proactive, then criticised for being too authoritarian and overreaching, now they're being criticised for being buffoons. Theoretically they could all be true in different contexts but it seems unlikely.
It feels to me that at some point no matter what countries do, the virus is going to rip through a substantial chunk of their populations.

Yes there will be some who handle it incredibly badly (the states, us first time round at least) and worsen the situation but those who did well first time are now seeming to get almost as hit hard as the countries who fumbled the first wave.

It seems infection amongst those vulnerable is almost inevitable sadly until a vaccine is found.
 

prateik

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True but with 33.4% of all attempted vaccine developments making it to market and 58.2% of vaccines that make it to stage 3 trials passing stage 3, with zero failures so far, we can still be reasonably optimistic.
Isn't it also true that we havent made a vaccine for a corona virus?

And about trials reaching stage 3.. Aren't things being fast tracked? Safety is important.. efficacy.. they are still not sure how much it'll work even if its safe.
Do we know if this has had the same standards for approval through the first 2 stages as a traditional vaccine that wasnt being rushed?
 

Vidic_In_Moscow

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No one will probably stop you. However, hardly anything will be open to visit. Museums are closing, bars and restaurants have closed... You'd need to wear a facemask everywhere. I don't know the purpose of your travels, but if you'd like to visit the city, I'd put it on hold.
I just need to meet someone to do a deal, and ideally while there is still free trade between the UK and EU. To be fair I'd intended to make a little trip out of it but you're right there, things will be closed. Perhaps it'd just be a one day visit, no hotels. I would have to self isolate for 14 days after though.
 

Pogue Mahone

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What's happening in Iceland? Weren't they down to tiny numbers of cases and operating a quarantine system on all arrivals?
Their population is so low it probably only takes one cluster to put them in the red. Still a surprise seeing them there. You’d wonder if they had any visitors from a Uk hot spot that evaded quarantine? :smirk:
 

Rado_N

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If I book a Eurostar ticket to go to Amsterdam, will anyone stop me? Will I be interrogated on how 'essential' my travel is?
I got the Ferry to Rotterdam and back a few weeks back and nobody asked any questions. Just had to fill out that online thing before we got back.
 

blue blue

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Isn't it also true that we havent made a vaccine for a corona virus?

And about trials reaching stage 3.. Aren't things being fast tracked? Safety is important.. efficacy.. they are still not sure how much it'll work even if its safe.
Do we know if this has had the same standards for approval through the first 2 stages as a traditional vaccine that wasnt being rushed?
I'm not overly optimistic about us finding a vaccine. I have only come to this realization in recent days. In fact I'm becoming less and less convinced science can bring this virus to an end by the day.

The head of the UK Covid-19 task force in this article today confirmed that any Vaccine that we find may only be 50% effective anyway.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...coronavirus-update-latest-when-trial-news-uk/

The article leads me to believe that our best chance of killing the virus will come from a mixture of treatments, a potential vaccine and track and trace. Although the article doesn't mention it there is also the hope that the Virus will mutate to become less infectious or deadly.

I think many people are hoping the virus will become less prevalent before Christmas with it being eradicated in the spring. I was certainly of this view up until a few days ago and I'm slowly realizing this may run for all of next year and potentially longer than that. I have heard less optomistic views elsewhere.

Isn't it time the Government started talking tough on this? If only to make people take the whole danger more seriously.
 

Wibble

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Isn't it also true that we havent made a vaccine for a corona virus?
We have for animals. Most coronaviruses in humans aren't worth it because 4 diffent ones only cause 15% of colds. I also seem to remember that there was one for MERS close to release (although maybe still only in trials)

And about trials reaching stage 3.. Aren't things being fast tracked? Safety is important..
Nothing is being done that will compromise safety. The speeding up of the process is largely doing later processes like starting manufacture ahead of phase 3 trials so they have enough to move straight to phase 3 if phase 2 is successful. If phase 3 is successful they then will be already in full swing manufacturing it so again no delay. None of this compromises safety but it does risk wasting lots of money if phase 3 trials fail.

efficacy.. they are still not sure how much it'll work even if its safe.
We won't know until phase 3 trials are finished even if phase 2 looked good.

Do we know if this has had the same standards for approval through the first 2 stages as a traditional vaccine that wasnt being rushed?
That is my understanding for all mainstream vaccines (for want of a better term) although it sounds like China and Russia may be cutting corners.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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We have for animals. Most coronaviruses in humans aren't worth it because 4 diffent ones only cause 15% of colds. I also seem to remember that there was one for MERS close to release (although maybe still only in trials)



Nothing is being done that will compromise safety. The speeding up of the process is largely doing later processes like starting manufacture ahead of stage 3 trials so they have enough to move straight to stage 3 if stage 2 is successful. If stage 3 is successful they then will be already in full swing manufacturing it so again no delay. None of this compromises safety but it does risk wasting lots of money if stage 3 trials fail.


We won't know until stage 3 trials are finished even if stage 2 looked good.


That is my understanding for all mainstream vaccines (for want of a better term) although it sounds like China and Russia may be cutting corners.
This is all true but it’s ‘phase’ not ‘stage’

/pedantry