SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Acole9]

To all those asking about supermarket queues, I was in Aldi earlier and it was fine. Busy but no different to what you would expect of a normal Saturday, plenty of stuff on the shelves.

 

[Buster15]

"It will feel different and better by the Spring...

He is sounding more like Trump. And about as convincing.

 

[OverratedOpinion]

To all those asking about supermarket queues, I was in Aldi earlier and it was fine. Busy but no different to what you would expect of a normal Saturday, plenty of stuff on the shelves.

I went to Tesco and there were queues of around 40 people outside the door (went very quickly mind). Probably just panic more than anything, hopefully common sense prevails.

 

[Buster15]

I never thought they were an absolute solution. I expected something more substantial then this, though. The virus appears to be increasing at a faster rate then before mask were mandatory.

That presupposes that face coverings are worn by all of those who are supposed to.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Personally, I’m relieved schools are staying open and think it’s the right decision. So many youngsters are suffering really bad long terms consequences from the first shutdown. I know a few of them.

 

[fergieisold]

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The idea that these governments are just unwilling to admit that schools are a problem is silly. They don't control the narrative in the science community, nor are they manufacturing the research that tells us schools aren't a major problem.

hang on I’m confused. The paper says they aren’t a problem?

 

[Buster15]

The whole place will be shut down and half of them will feck off to the Maldives for Christmas.

Or Barnards Castle...

 

[zing]

Personally, I’m relieved schools are staying open and think it’s the right decision. So many youngsters are suffering really bad long terms consequences from the first shutdown. I know a few of them.

Surely between business mobility and schools, you’d choose businesses. Livelihoods get affected by businesses being closed. Schools can work remotely.

 

[Berbaclass]

Is there any chance it doesn't get through parliament?

 

[thebelfastboy]

Man, all you want to do is pick holes, rather than dealing with the essential point. As I understood it, your premise was that two weeks after schools re-open, just like clockwork, cases start to rise. They didn't in Belgium, they were completely steady 2 weeks later, they rose 4 weeks later. Perhaps I misunderstood and you weren't saying that a leads to b and they follow this time-sensitive pattern that unequivocally indicates that a caused b. It's the timing that really made it clear. As far as I understood, other people echoed that very same sentiment in this thread just today. If that was a misinterpretation, I'm happy to say so. I'm not here to pick holes, nor am I wedded to a position on the subject. I'm just looking at what the evidence says. The evidence that you say speaks for itself.

Cases have risen in almost every major country in the last few months, Belgium included. Your premise is that schools are a key driver of that. The only way to test that theory is whether places have had exactly the same kind of spike without schools re-opening, and whether, weeks and weeks after schools re-opening, no such spike appeared in other places. I've just given some examples, they aren't exhaustive. If you're not willing to accept that those two things have already been demonstrated in other countries, fair enough, then we're not really having a discussion. You're just using me as a prop to repeat some propaganda. I'm happy enough knowing the evidence that you wanted was put out there plainly to see. People can make their own judgments.

Cases rising after only 2 weeks would mean that a significant number of pupils arrived at school with the virus. The 4 week timeline sounds more plausible in that a smaller number arrived with the virus on day 1,2,3....etc and it then began to spread exponentially both inside and outside the school setting.

I have no doubt that schools/education is the main driver behind cases rising.

 

[Fluctuation0161]

Personally, I’m relieved schools are staying open and think it’s the right decision. So many youngsters are suffering really bad long terms consequences from the first shutdown. I know a few of them.

Schools yes. But universities could move to online. Universities are a real clusterfeck that need resolving.

 

[Pexbo]

Is there any chance it doesn't get through parliament?

At this point I hope it absolutely rips through parliament.

 

[Berbasbullet]

At this point I hope it absolutely rips through parliament.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Is there any chance it doesn't get through parliament?

You have to wonder if the supposed plan to meet MPs was on Monday, vote on Tuesday and lockdown shortly after means that they now haven't had enough time to clear it with everyone. Going to take a mighty big whip to keep folk in line.

 

[Maagge]

Surely between business mobility and schools, you’d choose businesses. Livelihoods get affected by businesses being closed. Schools can work remotely.

People with kids can't really go to work if they have to look after said kids though.

 

[T00lsh3d]

Personally, I’m relieved schools are staying open and think it’s the right decision. So many youngsters are suffering really bad long terms consequences from the first shutdown. I know a few of them.

Agreed. Teenage years are tough as it is. Imagine growing up through that period with this shit going on. Might not be too bad if you’ve a stable home environment but if you haven’t? Really tough

 

[Buster15]

Any explanation for why Boris is late?

As the PM, he had to delay his news conference longer than Cummings.

 

[Ubik]

Is there any chance it doesn't get through parliament?

Nah, Labour will support it even if Tory backbenchers don't.

 

[OverratedOpinion]

Is there any chance it doesn't get through parliament?

Will definitely get through.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

I don’t get discouraging outbound flights but no mention of inbound flights

Nor me.

We know other countries are struggling (some worse) so why allow that chance? Should ban it apart from UK people returning home... who then have to self isolate and stay in UK until lockdown lifted?

 

[acnumber9]

But why not comment on all of the data, rather than one piece here and there? How does your theory fit what has happened in South Africa, where they re-opened schools in August but have kept the 7 day average at around 1500, a little lower than when the schools opened? If they start to spike in a month's time, will you say that it was just a delayed effect? How does it fit what has happened in Japan, where they re-opened schools when they were at their absolute peak, and months afterwards they've been hovering at 500-700 cases consistently in September and October? If opening schools played the role you say they do, such an obvious one too, how is it that it doesn't apply in these completely different countries with completely different approaches and completely different trajectories? How is it that countries had these inexplicable spikes while schools were off for the summer?

These aren't me picking holes in the theory. The causal mechanism can only be true if it applied in all of these scenarios, and it just doesn't. Isn't it more plausible that schools are just one of the factors that caused a spike in NI, and most of Western Europe, because of a general relaxation in adherence that coincided with schools re-opening? i.e. the thing that drove the spikes in the US - just carrying on like normal, as you put it - is what gradually crept into play in most of the West. You can't point to it as a single event written on a piece of paper, so it's a less satisfying explanation. It's also a bit of a loose definition, and so it can't explain everything. But at least it doesn't have those critical flaws.

Because the first ones I looked at you were completely wrong on and I don’t know enough about other factors in South Africa to really comment. Which is why I’ve tried to concentrate on what I do know. You’re not considering differences in class sizes etc. Many countries have had staggered schooling. We don’t.

You keep stating these things as fact when they aren’t. Japan re-opened schools on 18 May. Their peak was in July.

 

[acnumber9]

Ireland is proving its possible to turn things round without closing schools. 416 cases today. A third of the peak of our second wave. A downturn that started when the kids were still at school and still far too soon for half term to have had any effect on case numbers (6 days into school holidays and average incubation period 5-6 days)

I don’t think the UK really have “tried everything else”. The measures we took in Ireland which turned things round would be a start. An end to indoor dining/drinking in pubs/restaurants and no more multi household gatherings. Anywhere in the country. The UK govt are belatedly (as usual) doing what needs to be done, so things should improve in another 10-14 days time.

Hopefully it continues but I have my doubts. Or at least have my doubts that schools are safer than many of the places closing.

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

First aisle was fruit and veg. Halfway down it switches to Dairy. Decent amount of energy drinks and sandwiches. At the back is fresh meats and ready meals. Back corner is freezers and then on to the bakery. Final bend is Alcohol, not a great selection but they have what I needed.

I steer clear of the middle section as there’s so much temptation there! It’s where you’ll find chocolate, cereals, crisps and such.

The only time I dare venture there is to go to the ‘Countries’ section. I grab West Indian bits as well as a can of Irn Bru. It’s kept on a special shelf as it’s from Scotland.

Hope that helps.

Been a shit week... JJ, Nobby, Connery.

But for a couple of seconds, that made me smile. Thanks.

 

[Sweet Square]

"It will feel different and better by the Spring...

 

[BeforeKeanetherewasRobson]

They were terrible. Far too much information. When I used to make presentations, the vu graphs had to be clear and concise such that I didn't have to explain the data.

I remember work sending me on a PowerPoint/Presentation course years ago and the one thing I remember was "keep the slides 'light' and bullet point".

I don't think they envisaged explaining Covid 19 impacts easily. Tough gig.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

it was suppose to be better by this Summer

 

[LARulz]

Well, selfishly I am pissed. My fiance has applied for a fiance visa, done her biometrics last week. So 2 questions:

1) Does this mean the home office will be closed or will continue as is?

2) I cannot go travel to see my fiance who lives abroad?

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[MikeUpNorth]

Well, selfishly I am pissed. My fiance has applied for a fiance visa, done her biometrics last week. So 2 questions:

1) Does this mean the home office will be closed or will continue as is?

Likely to be continuing to work, but with reduced capacity. I imagine everything will take longer.

2) I cannot go travel to see my fiance who lives abroad?

Correct.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Will this prevent me from seeing my wife and kids? We live in the same house but I'm hoping to figure out a reason to avoid them all.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Surely between business mobility and schools, you’d choose businesses. Livelihoods get affected by businesses being closed. Schools can work remotely.

I'd choose schools.

 

[Pexbo]

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There is literally no credible answer to this. They clearly treat them with utter contempt.

 

[Compton22]

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They literally have no answer to this injustice. It is quite clear prejudice.

 

[Buster15]

Toilet rolls are going to be like rocking horse sh1t again.

 

[DomesticTadpole]

I went earlier, it was actually fairly quiet considering, but I’m in wales so might be different.

I go and do my shopping early. Tesco's I get round really easier as there around 7.30 in the morning and back home around an hour later. The only thing I would say with Tesco is the lads/lassies blocking off the aisle while doing the online grocerie sh

Aldi early this afternoon, maybe 2ish, was fine. No queues to get in, plenty of stock, walked straight to an empty checkout once done.

Even managed to get some bog roll.

I went to Aldi last Thursday get there before eight, and going to Tesco this Thursday, get there around 7.30. It is lovely and quiet then, can get round easily and get everything I want. I just get my usual shopping every week. Why do people panic? We are not going to run out of stuff unless they themselves cause the shortage.

 

[LARulz]

Likely to be continuing to work, but with reduced capacity. I imagine everything will take longer.


Correct.

Thanks and

 

[DomesticTadpole]

Schools haven't been a problem in Denmark either as far as I can see.

Not sure they are. The senior school near me, each year has one section of the school to themselves, they do not change classroom, it is the teacher who change classes. They wear masks in all communal areas, there are staggered dinnertimes. If kids catch anything if will likely be from silly adults who they mix with outside school.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

From the Beeb live page.

Analysis: PM has been avoiding this for weeks
Nick Eardley
Political correspondent

Boris Johnson has been trying to avoid this for weeks.

The scientists called for a circuit-breaker weeks ago – Labour have been doing the same for the last fortnight.

The government is still defending the local lockdown strategy but things have changed.

The graphs we saw in the press conference show a real risk the NHS could be overwhelmed if action isn’t taken now.

The PM’s argument is that he is reacting to a virus that is now spreading far quicker than feared.

But some will look at the warnings of the last few weeks and ask why this action wasn’t taken sooner.

That's the first, and probably the last, instance of them drawing attention to Boris's actions.

 

[Compton22]

From the Beeb live page.



That's the first, and probably the last, instance of them drawing attention to Boris's actions.

I'm surprised the Beeb is even drawing attention to this

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

From the Beeb live page.



That's the first, and probably the last, instance of them drawing attention to Boris's actions.

by the time the US Election comes around, stuff like this is all forgotten and disappears in the news cycle