Rado_N
Yaaas Broncos!
Boom!With this lockdown or the first?
Boom!With this lockdown or the first?
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its pretty obvious, this is all very rushed, they wanted to do this next week, but the reporting over the last 24 hours has meant they need to get the announcement today.How on earth can he possibly be late to his own briefing on putting the country into another lockdown?
Unless there is a nuke currently travelling towards London right now, what could be more important right now?
Well Sweden barely locked down at all did it? And still their cases now are double their peak.So you can look at it from two angles. In places where schools have been open for months, has it led to a sudden surge? Alternatively, have there been sudden surges in places where there has been no changes to school measures?
When schools opened in Japan, did they have a second wave? They've been open for months now, and no second wave. But they got cases down low, so maybe it's not a fair comparison. Sweden have consistently had a much higher level of community transmission, and yet no spike due to the kids in school either.
What about somewhere like Belgium, where they re-opened schools at the beginning of September, but throughout September had around 2,000 cases per day, steady as you like. No change to schools in October, but things jump off the charts to 6x those levels. Maybe it's just a delayed effect? Instead we could look at when the peaks preceded the schools re-opening. What about in the US, state by state? Florida, Texas, Arizona had their worst period when schools were closed, and while they're on the rise again now, they're nowhere near the same level.
We know that the thing that you deem inexplicable - a sudden explosion in cases - has happened before schools re-opened and long after schools re-opened. We know it hasn't happened at all in cases where schools have been open for months. In other words, it's entirely possible that the explosion in cases happened irrespective of schools re-opened. Otherwise you would have seen an explosion in cases in Sweden, after many months, or you wouldn't have seen an explosion of cases in the US southern states while they were off school as normal.
All you've picked up on is a correlation. Many more get murdered when ice cream sales go up. One didn't cause the other but they were part of the same general trend. Schools re-opened as we progressively relaxed all other aspects of life. Lots of things have changed since September, most importantly, people's attitudes. Schools play a role in transmission but they aren't a dominant factor, and most of the role they play has nothing to do with kids passing it to each other in worryingly high numbers.
For once it would have been nice to see our country be in a proactive state and put strong measures in place to put the numbers down BEFORE they got out of control.With this lockdown or the first?
Sainsbury's was barren by the time I got there late this morning, with checkout queues all the way up the aisles. Trollies piled high.Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?
Because he’s a fecking shambles, who shouldn’t be left in charge of a picnic never mind a country.Any explanation for why Boris is late?
With this lockdown or the first?
It would've also been nice to see some joined up thinking. Up here we enacted our five level strategy about, what, a week ago? There's absolutely no way that Sturgeon and Johnson haven't been discussing approaches and yet, somehow, Boris decides to finish his homework the night before the deadline date. Again.For once it would have been nice to see our country be in a proactive state and put strong measures in place to put the numbers down BEFORE they got out of control.
Too scared of the ‘oh but it’s only x amount of infections’ brigade.
Weird. Went to do weekly shop (Durham area) and everything was fine.Sainsbury's was barren by the time I got there late this morning, with checkout queues all the way up the aisles. Trollies piled high.
Human nature is fascinating. We never learn.
Aldi early this afternoon, maybe 2ish, was fine. No queues to get in, plenty of stock, walked straight to an empty checkout once done.Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?
Its not so much the few hours delay that is bothering me (we know we're going into another lockdown, there's no surprises there), its the continuing shambles of a response we've seen from him and his government.its pretty obvious, this is all very rushed, they wanted to do this next week, but the reporting over the last 24 hours has meant they need to get the announcement today.
It’s annoying, But I would rather they delay it for a couple of hours if there are details they need to work on.
That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?Sainsbury's was barren by the time I got there late this morning, with checkout queues all the way up the aisles. Trollies piled high.
Human nature is fascinating. We never learn.
Good to hear. I hope what I experienced was an anomaly and not you.Weird. Went to do weekly shop (Durham area) and everything was fine.
I’ve highlighted the flaw in your logic there mate.That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
Because England is a really mental place.That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
Bad hair day apparently.Any explanation for why Boris is late?
That's what I can't understand. Thankfully I was doing a click n collect so didn't have to join the panic. I hope it will die down over the next few days as people realise the supermarkets aren't going anywhere.That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
Yes, Belgium have had an increase in cases. Your hypothesis is that that sudden rise in cases is best explained by schools re-opening. Nothing else changed, so how could it just spike like that? Apply that argument to the southern states in the US, which had a sudden rise when kids were all off. Apply that argument to South Africa, which had a very similar spike at the same time, and 2 months after re-opening schools, has kept things pretty steady. In other words, is it possible to have a sudden spike without any change to school procedures? Absolutely. Alternatively, is it possible to keep case levels steady even after re-opening schools? Sweden, Japan, South Africa two months on...many other countries. Yeah, it is. It is not an irrelevant factor, it plays a role, but your suggestion is it is a dominant factor, the best explanation of this change. It just doesn't fit when you apply it outside this context you first applied it to, the causal explanation falls apart.Well Sweden barely locked down at all did it? And still their cases now are double their peak.
Belgium is an interesting one for sure. On September 1st they had 194 cases. By October 1st that was 1337 so more than 6 times the rate. The latest figures are 23921 for October 30th. So over 120 times the rate before schools re-opened. Cases decreased between the start of August and September. You’ve chosen a terrible example.
The slower rise in cases in the US states you cite could just as easily be attributed to greater herd immunity could it not? I haven’t looked at those numbers yet. They’re still rising though.
Work for an Academy trust as a IT Techie, I do 4 schools of various sizes, my colleague who is in the vulnerable group does 5.Teaching in a school with 1600 kids, I'm a little cheesed that they aren't even implementing a rota system at the minimum.
Watched the Rugby. Beat Cummings record.Any explanation for why Boris is late?
Went to Tesco and then Aldi (across the street from each other). Both were very busy thanks to people picking up supplies on the way to Halloween nights out. There was a fair number of people in costumes and the like.Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?
Because Americans just carried on like normal for the most part perhaps? Are you just going to ignore the abosulte clusterfeck you made of your Belgian example? Sweden’s latest figures were 25 times the number of cases they had on September 1st. We have different definitions of steady. Writing a litany of paragraphs may fool some in to taking your opinion as gospel. Not for me.Yes, Belgium have had an increase in cases. Your hypothesis is that that sudden rise in cases is best explained by schools re-opening. Nothing else changed, so how could it just spike like that? Apply that argument to the southern states in the US, which had a sudden rise when kids were all off. Apply that argument to South Africa, which had a very similar spike at the same time, and 2 months after re-opening schools, has kept things pretty steady. In other words, is it possible to have a sudden spike without any change to school procedures? Absolutely. Alternatively, is it possible to keep case levels steady even after re-opening schools? Sweden, Japan, South Africa two months on...many other countries. Yeah, it is. It is not an irrelevant factor, it plays a role, but your suggestion is it is a dominant factor, the best explanation of this change. It just doesn't fit when you apply it outside this context you first applied it to, the causal explanation falls apart.
You don't need a change in a single factor to explain the sudden spike in cases. It happens independently of schools. There's a reason why the evidence you cited said "remains unclear how infectious children may be" and "unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission ". They don't have an agenda, they closed schools anyway out of an abundance of caution and convenient timing. It's just the pattern you believe is so obvious is apparently undetectable to them, the people with all of the data.
Some of the slides are a joke. There was a formula error on one.Slide presentation is shite on bbc - can’t see half the data.
Nobody really gives a feck about slides. These people are inept.They can’t even get their slides to fit the screen.
I do not know why the option is always either a school closure or schools to remain open and nothing in between. It's so bizarre, I think a rota system would be perfect to ease stress of the shortage of staff, like you mentioned.Work for an Academy trust as a IT Techie, I do 4 schools of various sizes, my colleague who is in the vulnerable group does 5.
Thinking back to after we came back from lockdown, we both had reduced schools, 2 days at 2 each, work from home day, later start/early finish times.
For teachers, obviously they only had 10 kids. The ones in vulnerable groups did planning for the ones teaching some from home, some used offices but didn't teach. all finished at 3:30 rather than average of 6. Think a lot of the teachers loved it. Smaller classes, less stress.
Curious to see if they make changes to how things are, already shortstaffed and the bubbles aren't feasible when some staff are having to cover multiple classes.
Doubt they'll let the vulnerable to refrain from teaching as it just wouldn't be possible staff wise.
Thought it was my tvSlide presentation is shite on bbc - can’t see half the data.
He was watching the rugby.Any explanation for why Boris is late?