SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

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How on earth can he possibly be late to his own briefing on putting the country into another lockdown?

Unless there is a nuke currently travelling towards London right now, what could be more important right now?
its pretty obvious, this is all very rushed, they wanted to do this next week, but the reporting over the last 24 hours has meant they need to get the announcement today.

It’s annoying, But I would rather they delay it for a couple of hours if there are details they need to work on.
 

acnumber9

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So you can look at it from two angles. In places where schools have been open for months, has it led to a sudden surge? Alternatively, have there been sudden surges in places where there has been no changes to school measures?

When schools opened in Japan, did they have a second wave? They've been open for months now, and no second wave. But they got cases down low, so maybe it's not a fair comparison. Sweden have consistently had a much higher level of community transmission, and yet no spike due to the kids in school either.

What about somewhere like Belgium, where they re-opened schools at the beginning of September, but throughout September had around 2,000 cases per day, steady as you like. No change to schools in October, but things jump off the charts to 6x those levels. Maybe it's just a delayed effect? Instead we could look at when the peaks preceded the schools re-opening. What about in the US, state by state? Florida, Texas, Arizona had their worst period when schools were closed, and while they're on the rise again now, they're nowhere near the same level.

We know that the thing that you deem inexplicable - a sudden explosion in cases - has happened before schools re-opened and long after schools re-opened. We know it hasn't happened at all in cases where schools have been open for months. In other words, it's entirely possible that the explosion in cases happened irrespective of schools re-opened. Otherwise you would have seen an explosion in cases in Sweden, after many months, or you wouldn't have seen an explosion of cases in the US southern states while they were off school as normal.

All you've picked up on is a correlation. Many more get murdered when ice cream sales go up. One didn't cause the other but they were part of the same general trend. Schools re-opened as we progressively relaxed all other aspects of life. Lots of things have changed since September, most importantly, people's attitudes. Schools play a role in transmission but they aren't a dominant factor, and most of the role they play has nothing to do with kids passing it to each other in worryingly high numbers.
Well Sweden barely locked down at all did it? And still their cases now are double their peak.

Belgium is an interesting one for sure. On September 1st they had 194 cases. By October 1st that was 1337 so more than 6 times the rate. The latest figures are 23921 for October 30th. So over 120 times the rate before schools re-opened. Cases decreased between the start of August and September. You’ve chosen a terrible example.

The slower rise in cases in the US states you cite could just as easily be attributed to greater herd immunity could it not? I haven’t looked at those numbers yet. They’re still rising though.

The restrictions on hospitality were lifted in July. It caused an increase for sure. But not the increase we’ve seen since. You’ve offered no viable explanation for the massive increase and schools not being an impact. I’m not and never have claimed it’s the sole reason. It’s one of many, but it’s a big one.
 
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Berbasbullet

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With this lockdown or the first?
For once it would have been nice to see our country be in a proactive state and put strong measures in place to put the numbers down BEFORE they got out of control.

Too scared of the ‘oh but it’s only x amount of infections’ brigade.
 

Kag

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If the furlough scheme is not extended and maintained at 80% for the sectors affected by closures (e.g. hospitality, retail, leisure, health and beauty etc.) then you’re killing people.

We’re about to ask people who earn 8 quid an hour to survive on a fiver an hour. Utterly soul destroying.
 

Mr Pigeon

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For once it would have been nice to see our country be in a proactive state and put strong measures in place to put the numbers down BEFORE they got out of control.

Too scared of the ‘oh but it’s only x amount of infections’ brigade.
It would've also been nice to see some joined up thinking. Up here we enacted our five level strategy about, what, a week ago? There's absolutely no way that Sturgeon and Johnson haven't been discussing approaches and yet, somehow, Boris decides to finish his homework the night before the deadline date. Again.

Edit: not for a minute suggesting that the SNP have done this the right way either. Just saying that compared to the UK lot they're scholars.
 

africanspur

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its pretty obvious, this is all very rushed, they wanted to do this next week, but the reporting over the last 24 hours has meant they need to get the announcement today.

It’s annoying, But I would rather they delay it for a couple of hours if there are details they need to work on.
Its not so much the few hours delay that is bothering me (we know we're going into another lockdown, there's no surprises there), its the continuing shambles of a response we've seen from him and his government.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Sainsbury's was barren by the time I got there late this morning, with checkout queues all the way up the aisles. Trollies piled high.

Human nature is fascinating. We never learn.
That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
 

Rado_N

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That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
I’ve highlighted the flaw in your logic there mate.
 

BluesJr

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That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
Because England is a really mental place.
 

OnlyTwoDaSilvas

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That’s so weird. We had no panic buying at all this time. People obviously realised that the supermarkets stayed open throughout the first lockdown and would do so again. Why would anyone think it would be different second time round?
That's what I can't understand. Thankfully I was doing a click n collect so didn't have to join the panic. I hope it will die down over the next few days as people realise the supermarkets aren't going anywhere.
 

Brwned

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Well Sweden barely locked down at all did it? And still their cases now are double their peak.

Belgium is an interesting one for sure. On September 1st they had 194 cases. By October 1st that was 1337 so more than 6 times the rate. The latest figures are 23921 for October 30th. So over 120 times the rate before schools re-opened. Cases decreased between the start of August and September. You’ve chosen a terrible example.

The slower rise in cases in the US states you cite could just as easily be attributed to greater herd immunity could it not? I haven’t looked at those numbers yet. They’re still rising though.
Yes, Belgium have had an increase in cases. Your hypothesis is that that sudden rise in cases is best explained by schools re-opening. Nothing else changed, so how could it just spike like that? Apply that argument to the southern states in the US, which had a sudden rise when kids were all off. Apply that argument to South Africa, which had a very similar spike at the same time, and 2 months after re-opening schools, has kept things pretty steady. In other words, is it possible to have a sudden spike without any change to school procedures? Absolutely. Alternatively, is it possible to keep case levels steady even after re-opening schools? Sweden, Japan, South Africa two months on...many other countries. Yeah, it is. It is not an irrelevant factor, it plays a role, but your suggestion is it is a dominant factor, the best explanation of this change. It just doesn't fit when you apply it outside this context you first applied it to, the causal explanation falls apart.

You don't need a change in a single factor to explain the sudden spike in cases. It happens independently of schools. There's a reason why the evidence you cited said "remains unclear how infectious children may be" and "unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission ". They don't have an agenda, they closed schools anyway out of an abundance of caution and convenient timing. It's just the pattern you believe is so obvious is apparently undetectable to them, the people with all of the data.
 

Stactix

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Teaching in a school with 1600 kids, I'm a little cheesed that they aren't even implementing a rota system at the minimum.
Work for an Academy trust as a IT Techie, I do 4 schools of various sizes, my colleague who is in the vulnerable group does 5.
Thinking back to after we came back from lockdown, we both had reduced schools, 2 days at 2 each, work from home day, later start/early finish times.
For teachers, obviously they only had 10 kids. The ones in vulnerable groups did planning for the ones teaching some from home, some used offices but didn't teach. all finished at 3:30 rather than average of 6. Think a lot of the teachers loved it. Smaller classes, less stress.
Curious to see if they make changes to how things are, already shortstaffed and the bubbles aren't feasible when some staff are having to cover multiple classes.
Doubt they'll let the vulnerable to refrain from teaching as it just wouldn't be possible staff wise.
 

Dante

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Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?
Went to Tesco and then Aldi (across the street from each other). Both were very busy thanks to people picking up supplies on the way to Halloween nights out. There was a fair number of people in costumes and the like.

I didn't see any of the panic buying we had the first time around.
 

acnumber9

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Yes, Belgium have had an increase in cases. Your hypothesis is that that sudden rise in cases is best explained by schools re-opening. Nothing else changed, so how could it just spike like that? Apply that argument to the southern states in the US, which had a sudden rise when kids were all off. Apply that argument to South Africa, which had a very similar spike at the same time, and 2 months after re-opening schools, has kept things pretty steady. In other words, is it possible to have a sudden spike without any change to school procedures? Absolutely. Alternatively, is it possible to keep case levels steady even after re-opening schools? Sweden, Japan, South Africa two months on...many other countries. Yeah, it is. It is not an irrelevant factor, it plays a role, but your suggestion is it is a dominant factor, the best explanation of this change. It just doesn't fit when you apply it outside this context you first applied it to, the causal explanation falls apart.

You don't need a change in a single factor to explain the sudden spike in cases. It happens independently of schools. There's a reason why the evidence you cited said "remains unclear how infectious children may be" and "unclear how much schools may contribute to community transmission ". They don't have an agenda, they closed schools anyway out of an abundance of caution and convenient timing. It's just the pattern you believe is so obvious is apparently undetectable to them, the people with all of the data.
Because Americans just carried on like normal for the most part perhaps? Are you just going to ignore the abosulte clusterfeck you made of your Belgian example? Sweden’s latest figures were 25 times the number of cases they had on September 1st. We have different definitions of steady. Writing a litany of paragraphs may fool some in to taking your opinion as gospel. Not for me.

The people with all the data told us that face masks made no difference. If you want to believe everything those with the data tell you that’s up to you.
 

Wumminator

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Can’t stand any of them. They’re all cnuts. Every single one of them to a man is a fecking prick and corrupt as feck.

Edit: feck - just noticed the press conference has started as well. Will switch from the Liverpool game now.
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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They can’t even get their slides to fit the screen.
Nobody really gives a feck about slides. These people are inept.

Talk through one or two slides. Release the stat pack to the media.

These look like 15 year olds GCSE mock papers.
 

Fooza

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Work for an Academy trust as a IT Techie, I do 4 schools of various sizes, my colleague who is in the vulnerable group does 5.
Thinking back to after we came back from lockdown, we both had reduced schools, 2 days at 2 each, work from home day, later start/early finish times.
For teachers, obviously they only had 10 kids. The ones in vulnerable groups did planning for the ones teaching some from home, some used offices but didn't teach. all finished at 3:30 rather than average of 6. Think a lot of the teachers loved it. Smaller classes, less stress.
Curious to see if they make changes to how things are, already shortstaffed and the bubbles aren't feasible when some staff are having to cover multiple classes.
Doubt they'll let the vulnerable to refrain from teaching as it just wouldn't be possible staff wise.
I do not know why the option is always either a school closure or schools to remain open and nothing in between. It's so bizarre, I think a rota system would be perfect to ease stress of the shortage of staff, like you mentioned.

Also it'd be great to minimise the contact kids would normally have if they were in a school that would have more students around them, essentially minimising passing on anything to their households. Plus it's safer for the teachers. Total shambles really at the lack of ideas and implementing safer structures when it comes to schools.
 

Smores

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Every now and again i remember just how long this has been going on and it's mental.