SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[Fluctuation0161]

There isn't a solution. We're in a pandemic. Some problems can't be solved, just managed, and a series of bad outcomes weighed up.

The problem with the virus isn't that it kills a lot of people. And it should be reiterated that it kills a shitload of people, even under the most absurd conditions. If it "only" killed 50,000 people while we've went through two lockdowns, and in between a shitload of restrictions, how many people do you honestly think it would have killed if we had just let it rip? We know, conclusively, it would have been magnitudes higher. Let's be a little ridiculous here and assume it "only" would have killed 100,000. Last year 63,000 people died from ischemic heart disease. The only thing that killed more was dementia. Covid might well kill more than either of them, despite the most insane efforts to prevent it from running out of control, and collapsing the health system.

The problem is how quickly it spreads. We already know that in two weeks' time twice as many people will be dying than they are now. If we didn't do anything at all, we would reasonably expect it to double again, and double again. These aren't theories, they've happened repeatedly across the world. There's no "option" to just open things back up and deal with it because there would be fewer doctors than people with life-threatening covid in a matter of weeks. Then things get real bad.

I tend to agree. Even if we lockdown now the effects won't be seen for weeks and the doubling of cases and deaths will keep on going. Hospitals already close to capacity and no additional staff available to work in nightingale hospitals. Hell, alot of NHS staff are already having to self isolate so they are short staffed as it is. The main factor for me is not overwhelming the hospitals.

If critical care departments are having to decide which patient, A or B gets to use the one available ICU, as happened in the first wave then we are fecked.

 

[GloryHunter07]

It’s easy to blame those in charge but while I agree that these decisions could cost lives, you also have to understand that for every voice shouting in Boris’s ear concerning lives, there are just as many shouting about the economy and livelihoods. It can’t be easy and as far as I can see most leaders are struggling also. It must be like trying to hold water.

Its a false argument though, theres no way we were ever getting through winter without a lockdown, but we may have been able to get away with a short one. Not anymore.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Think it’ll be hard to enforce actually. Nowhere near enough police to deal with the lockdown and I think the majority of people rightly or wrongly don’t care.

I would imagine here in Scotland we will follow suit with England relatively soon.

What ticks me off is that for all the "we should work together on this" it doesn't seem to happen. Did Boris just get the news that we would need a lockdown 24 hours ago?

 

[Berbasbullet]

I tend to agree. Even if we lockdown now the effects won't be seen for weeks and the doubling of cases and deaths will keep on going. Hospitals already close to capacity and no additional staff available to work in nightingale hospitals. Hell, alot of NHS staff are already having to self isolate so they are short staffed as it is. The main factor for me is not overwhelming the hospitals.

If critical care departments are having to decide which patient, A or B gets to use the one available ICU, as happened in the first wave then we are fecked.

Yep! We have to protect the beds, we cannot afford to be overwhelmed and as you point out we can’t be in a position where we are choosing who lives and dies.

Such a scary time to be alive, I feel so awful for everyone, the old who have to shield and might not have contact with anyone, the young who’s social life will be suffering, people losing their jobs. Honestly it’s so depressing, the alternative is so much worse though, we can’t have hundreds of thousands of people dying.

 

[acnumber9]

He is right though. No evidence anywhere that under 12 year olds are a big problem. It has been told to you many times, but you just ignore it everytime and group all the school ages together.

He isn’t right though. Because there’s no proof he’s right. Whether it’s primary schools or secondary schools doesn’t matter. Schools have to be having an impact. And the scientific evidence used in Northern Ireland suggests it is an issue. How big an issue remains to be seen but people with their head in the sands are bonkers. All we have are hypotheses. The numbers tell their own story.

 

[Volumiza]

It does matter, because he is not elected and is not a scientist.

Eithet way, the mixed messaging from the government has not helped the "idiot" factor has it?

Stay home in March, masks dont work, then it is your duty to go back to work and school, then eat out to help out, then masks do work, then work from home when possible (in September, ignoring Sage advice), then calling Starmer a political opportunist for asking the government to listen to scientists and have a circuit breaker lockdown, now, lockdown.

Simple.

I didn’t say that the issue of Cummings role in the heart of government wasn’t an issue, just that although the government. Boris. Cummings. Hancock. All of them, getti my things wrong I still see it as OUR responsibility to fecking behave in a way that reduces the spread of the virus.

 

[Jacko21]

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[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?

First aisle was fruit and veg. Halfway down it switches to Dairy. Decent amount of energy drinks and sandwiches. At the back is fresh meats and ready meals. Back corner is freezers and then on to the bakery. Final bend is Alcohol, not a great selection but they have what I needed.

I steer clear of the middle section as there’s so much temptation there! It’s where you’ll find chocolate, cereals, crisps and such.

The only time I dare venture there is to go to the ‘Countries’ section. I grab West Indian bits as well as a can of Irn Bru. It’s kept on a special shelf as it’s from Scotland.

Hope that helps.

 

[Berbasbullet]

I didn’t say that the issue of Cummings role in the heart of government wasn’t an issue, just that although the government. Boris. Cummings. Hancock. All of them, getti my things wrong I still see it as OUR responsibility to fecking behave in a way that reduces the spread of the virus.

That is somewhat true, but the government have to set the example, the tone and the boundaries, and telling us to go out and all have dinner out on them, calling the pubs opening ‘super Saturday’, oh and not breaking their own lockdown rules too would help.

 

[Bwuk]

What makes you think it’s the majority that don’t care? It’s a shame we have a population that would need such policing during a lockdown.

There is a reason we’re all making these sacrifices, it’s happening all over Europe.

Personal experience I suppose. I don’t think I know anyone who’s as strict as they were when the original lockdown happened.

 

[Smores]

I completely understand the temptation to say it's not me at risk why should I be impacted but the amount of people in the vulnerable category is too many to shield. Not only that what about their jobs and mental health too?

 

[Volumiza]

That is somewhat true, but the government have to set the example, the tone and the boundaries, and telling us to go out and all have dinner out on them, calling the pubs opening ‘super Saturday’, oh and not breaking their own lockdown rules too would help.

I agree. I’m not sticking up for them but it does annoy me when people use them as an excuse for our idiot population.

My Prime Minister may be an idiot but I’m certainly able to not be one regardless.

 

[Bojan11]

First aisle was fruit and veg. Halfway down it switches to Dairy. Decent amount of energy drinks and sandwiches. At the back is fresh meats and ready meals. Back corner is freezers and then on to the bakery. Final bend is Alcohol, not a great selection but they have what I needed.

I steer clear of the middle section as there’s so much temptation there! It’s where you’ll find chocolate, cereals, crisps and such.

The only time I dare venture there is to go to the ‘Countries’ section. I grab West Indian bits as well as a can of Irn Bru. It’s kept on a special shelf as it’s from Scotland.

Hope that helps.

Toilet roll?

 

[Volumiza]

I completely understand the temptation to say it's not me at risk why should I be impacted but the amount of people in the vulnerable category is too many to shield. Not only that what about their jobs and mental health too?

There really is no outright win to be had. Two of my best friends have lost their jobs and one is really struggling mentally, he’s a very social creature and it is hard seeing him struggle but on the other hand I know 3 people who had the virus in March, all 3 are still struggling and one actually got taken back into hospital the other week with breathing difficulties. Really tough times.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Toilet roll?

Yes! They sell that too. Also in the middle section. It’s near the kitchen roll.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

I know it’s easy to throw everything at those in charge but the responsibility to stop this massive surge in transmissions, in my view anyway, stop with us, the populace.

We’ve known how to reduce the spread since April, and it seems to me like large parts of our population have been so eager to live their lives normally that we find ourselves in this mess. I certainly don’t blame the government in isolation for this mess, most of my blame falls at the feet of idiots who just can’t understand the severity of the pandemic and the sacrifices we all will have to make for the next few months. I’m fine with it.

I agree, but if people are hearing their PM use weak phrases like "we advise you" instead of "oi, shitface. Don't fecking do it or we'll throw you down a well" then people are more likely to take the piss.

The buck does stop with people but when people aren't being told things straight, or see their government reps ignoring the rules themselves and waving away the accusations against them, then twats will continue to act like twats. It also doesn't help when authorities aren't enforcing the regulations that are put in place. Gatherings of kids hanging outside? Police don't care. No mask in the shops? Shops can't enforce it and police don't care. Not surprising since our police forces have been bleeding money for years due to poor funding and our health service is equally fecked. These are knock on effects from subsequent governments cutting their money and, in my opinion, are equally important to factor in.

 

[Berbasbullet]

I agree. I’m not sticking up for them but it does annoy me when people use them as an excuse for our idiot population.

My Prime Minister may be an idiot but I’m certainly able to not be one regardless.

Oh yeah I agree! I’m still seeing idiots go into shops without masks! Makes me so cross.

 

[Volumiza]

I agree, but if people are hearing their PM use weak phrases like "we advise you" instead of "oi, shitface. Don't fecking do it or we'll throw you down a well" then people are more likely to take the piss.

And I agree with you, but would it have been any different if they’d have used that language? Would everyone have actually behaved differently?

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Can't understand them not closing Universities. They acted as a super spreader in late September and just seems like a massive waste of time currently with students currently under student flat arrest for 9k + a year.

Surely the academic year could've been started in January and students could've cracked on with a couple of online lectures and reading lists at home in this present time?

Like everything else now it's neither stick or twist.

Our place is great. Young adults walking in groups without masks and all the hand wash dispensaries have that crappy 70% alcohol foamy wash in them.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

And I agree with you, but would it have been any different if they’d have used that language? Would everyone have actually behaved differently?

Oh, no chance! Folk would've still acted like twats, but at the very least the rest of us could look out of our lockdown windows and enjoy the sight of twenty junkie kids getting cracked over the head by police batons!

 

[Penna]

I agree, but if people are hearing their PM use weak phrases like "we advise you" instead of "oi, shitface. Don't fecking do it or we'll throw you down a well" then people are more likely to take the piss.

The buck does stop with people but when people aren't being told things straight, or see their government reps ignoring the rules themselves and waving away the accusations against them, then twats will continue to act like twats. It also doesn't help when authorities aren't enforcing the regulations that are put in place. Gatherings of kids hanging outside? Police don't care. No mask in the shops? Shops can't enforce it and police don't care. Not surprising since our police forces have been bleeding money for years due to poor funding and our health service is equally fecked. These are knock on effects from subsequent governments cutting their money and, in my opinion, are equally important to factor in.

Exactly, if there's no enforcement only people with a social conscience will follow the rules. It's the same in every sphere of life. I fully expect Italy to return to a national lockdown soon, and we'll be having to fill in a form to go to the nearest grocery shop again. Make going out a chore and not a pleasure and enforce it as much as you can, it's the only way to get everyone to do the right thing.

This second lockdown in the UK is going to be much more difficult to manage, with November being the time when a lot of people are in the shops buying stuff for Christmas. Bezos will be rubbing his hands with glee.

 

[Berbasbullet]

Oh, no chance! Folk would've still acted like twats, but at the very least the rest of us could look out of our lockdown windows and enjoy the sight of twenty junkie kids getting cracked over the head by police batons!

Oh man, I’d love to watch the police crack down on these covidiots! Then to watch the subsequent conspiracy/ moaning videos on social media.

 

[jymufc20]

Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?

Was just like march around here, everyone panicking, I was only after a few extra bits to make the kids a nice buffet whilst they can't go trick or treating.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Oh man, I’d love to watch the police crack down on these covidiots! Then to watch the subsequent conspiracy/ moaning videos on social media.

Not too much to ask for the British version of this?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Interesting Boris referred to lockdown as ‘the height of absurdity’ 10 days ago...

 

[Volumiza]

Oh, no chance! Folk would've still acted like twats, but at the very least the rest of us could look out of our lockdown windows and enjoy the sight of twenty junkie kids getting cracked over the head by police batons!

Im sold! Bit of light entertainment in these dark times

 

[Heardy]

Anyone been to a supermarket today? How was it?

I went at 11pm last night when rumours of this all broke. Glad I did as heard our local supermarket has been hell today.

I only did a regular food shop as we were due a shop but you just know everyone will have gone mad.

 

[SinNombre]

Anyone here did research on how likely does it spread with HVAC usage when it is being used for heating?

Few confirmed cases in my building.

I would imagine it is very unlikely (way more than when it is used for cooling) but curious if anyone has seen research on this topic.

 

[Brwned]

You’re the one making the point. Back it up.

If the evidence used is based on influenza for schools then surely it’s based on that for everything? Even if we go with just the 0.35 for secondary schools that’s 7 times more than the close contact services they’ve shut. And ignores universities and primary school. The evidence is in the numbers. The only thing that changed in September was schools and universities opening.

So you can look at it from two angles. In places where schools have been open for months, has it led to a sudden surge? Alternatively, have there been sudden surges in places where there has been no changes to school measures?

When schools opened in Japan, did they have a second wave? They've been open for months now, and no second wave. But they got cases down low, so maybe it's not a fair comparison. Sweden have consistently had a much higher level of community transmission, and yet no spike due to the kids in school either.

What about somewhere like Belgium, where they re-opened schools at the beginning of September, but throughout September had around 2,000 cases per day, steady as you like. No change to schools in October, but things jump off the charts to 6x those levels. Maybe it's just a delayed effect? Instead we could look at when the peaks preceded the schools re-opening. What about in the US, state by state? Florida, Texas, Arizona had their worst period when schools were closed, and while they're on the rise again now, they're nowhere near the same level. In South Africa, they re-opened all school levels at the end of August, after getting over their first peak in mid August, and as we enter November there has been no rise in two months - 1,500 to 2,000 cases per day.

We know that the thing that you deem inexplicable - a sudden explosion in cases - has happened before schools re-opened and long after schools re-opened. We know it hasn't happened at all in cases where schools have been open for months. In other words, it's entirely possible that the explosion in cases happened irrespective of schools re-opened. Otherwise you would have seen an explosion in cases in Sweden, after many months, or you wouldn't have seen an explosion of cases in the US southern states while they were off school as normal.

All you've picked up on is a correlation. Many more people get murdered when ice cream sales go up. One didn't cause the other but they were both driven by the same underlying factor. Schools re-opened as we progressively relaxed all other aspects of life. Lots of things have changed since September, most importantly, people's attitudes. We opened schools when we felt comfortable with things, and when we felt comfortable with things, we spread the virus in normal social settings. Schools play a role in transmission but they aren't a dominant factor, and most of the role they play has nothing to do with kids passing it to each other in worryingly high numbers.

 

[711]

Come on Boris, let Larry the cat in, he's waiting on your doorstep.

 

[Buster15]

Come on Boris, let Larry the cat in, he's waiting on your doorstep.

So much has been leaked it makes you wonder what is actually going on...

 

[Buster15]

Interesting Boris referred to lockdown as ‘the height of absurdity’ 10 days ago...

The only thing that is absurd is the PM himself.

 

[711]

So much has been leaked it makes you wonder what is actually going on...

The leaking is a complete shambles. I just don't get how the BBC can be reporting what Boris is going to say with complete confidence, it just seems wrong.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

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Pathetic

 

[Pexbo]

Any explanation for why Boris is late?

 

[Berbasbullet]

Any explanation for why Boris is late?

Got lost in the fridge?

 

[africanspur]

Any explanation for why Boris is late?

How on earth can he possibly be late to his own briefing on putting the country into another lockdown?

Unless there is a nuke currently travelling towards London as we speak, what could be more important right now?

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

Any explanation for why Boris is late?

watching the rugby

 

[Fooza]

Teaching in a school with 1600 kids, I'm a little cheesed that they aren't even implementing a rota system at the minimum.

 

[Mr Pigeon]

Any explanation for why Boris is late?

With this lockdown or the first?