It’s almost like they’ve been trying to edge us towards herd immunity without having the balls to admit it.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
All those graphs they showed ... who is hammering them on why they didn’t act earlier? NOTHING is new in the last few days than since Christmas. And alas instead our journalists ask pointless questions about whether we will have kids in school before summer holidays when obviously no one knows the answer. Instead these questions should be about holding this Eton Mess to account.
We're going into hard lockdown in Denmark now because of the English Flu, which is projected to be the dominant strain by February if the curve doesn't break.
Meet 2021. Same as 2020.
Meet 2021. Same as 2020.
Put it on The CMO's. Said he was waiting for them to switch the threat level 5
I think he said it for that question
Irish schools closed until at least end of month
Saw something about Irish test centres returning around 55% positive rates at moment 
20-25% in ireland are now the U.K. strain
Any restrictions next winter will likely only a fraction on what we had this time. Possibly limiting household mixing, things like that.
Another lockdown next winter would mean that the vaccine did pretty much feck all.
Another lockdown next winter would mean that the vaccine did pretty much feck all.
Hopefully they learn from this and don`t allow family mixing next Christmas.
If we are still in this type of situation in 12 months time ........ my existence likely will have ceased.
Relatively few. If you take Public Health England's data from the last week of school in December, there were 260 potential outbreaks reported across the enitre week in educational settings, of which 200 were confirmed to have at least 1 case. 227 in care homes, 93 in hospitals, 174 in workplaces and other settings. In a week where 110,000 cases were reported, 200 outbreaks in educational settings is not a lot. And outbreaks at schools are disproportionately likely to be recorded, because they've had their own national school helpline since September to facilitate recording.
Super spreader events are much more likely to happen in other indoor settings with lots of adults, and an absolutely tiny proportion of cases are traced back to super spreader events in school. Super spreader events rely on someone with an exceptionally high viral load that spreads more easily. Kids are the least likely to be that. Household mixing of much smaller numbers in much more locations over Christmas will have had an impact several magnitudes larger, just because of how the disease spreads differently among adults and children.
More on super spreader events and children:
And a later study:
Last edited:
Can they not just make kids at all levels repeat the year so no one misses out?
I’m sure someone will tell me why that’s a bad idea
I’m sure someone will tell me why that’s a bad idea
NI writing their “stay at home” order into law so that it can be enforced
Meanwhile Sage advisors say children between 12-16 are seven times more likely to bring the virus into households than anybody else.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inew...in-virus-sage-adviser-mark-walport-815659/amp
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/inew...in-virus-sage-adviser-mark-walport-815659/amp
Have they changed tune recently or am I imagining that they previously said school kids aren't an issue
For these decisions there is a lot of admin and red tape involved. Even though it should be, it isn't simple enough because anyone along the way can pop up and say they disagree with it. You have to get permission from various departments and then a year later Boris implements it for the year after.
I didn’t realise that they’re planning to reopen secondary schools (only keeping primary schools closed) in the UK. That seems absolutely mad.
After that, he again said 'schools are safe'
That is his problem. He just doesn't understand what the hell is going on.
Various different studies will say various different things. And in fairness to the scientists involved it’s an ever changing picture. That’s why it’s dangerous to state things as fact when it’s anything but.
Didn't the new UK variant mutate in the conditions created by this government's early lax policies? High numbers = more chance of a mutated strain.
Many areas around London were put in tier 2 when tier 3 should've applied. The regional lockdown was a farce to appease the anti lockdown mps in the Tory party.
He did not even try to explain; because he cannot explain.
Just 100% bullsh1t. Same as normal.
Neither did I. It seems absolutely insane to me but I’d be surprised if it actually happened. I’m not sure that is accurate. It’s not in any other news that I’ve seen.
It would feck up third level education, who rely on the schools to provide them with new students each year. And you can’t make all third level students repeat a year because that would decimate the work force (no junior doctors etc)
Just seems to me that it would be fair to all the kids and solve some of the concerns
Covid is so mad. It messes up things at various levels. I wonder how many deaths we'd have been if we carried on as normal with no restrictions
Could third level students not be stretched out by adding another year of work experience?
I don't think a virus has a political leaning, as much as you would like it to.
That article is before his announcement yesterday. All schools are closed for all kids except children of key workers & the most vulnerable
I think I saw something about that earlier, an estimate around 350k
To be honest I feel for him. Years ago I was supposed to read Robinson Crusoe and do a presentation, boy did I struggle during that presentation.
But we need the final year students to graduate as planned. Otherwise that blows a hole in our workforce next year.
Ah, that’s makes sense.
Oh god, think I'd rather have Gove and that's saying something!
So latest analysis in Ireland has only 20% of samples as the “UK variant”. In a way, I find that reassuring. It shows that you can have an astronomical surge (quickest increase in cases per 100k in Europe, I think?) without being fuelled primarily by increased transmissibility of the virus.
Which means it’s still possible that the surge (in Ireland and the UK) is mainly driven by non-virus factors and the measures that worked once can work again.
Which means it’s still possible that the surge (in Ireland and the UK) is mainly driven by non-virus factors and the measures that worked once can work again.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Just had a notification on the NHS app that I have to isolate for 4 days. Does that mean someone tested positive 6 days ago and only just entered the result?
More likely that it's somebody who last met you 6 days ago. Test/trace asks for contacts from 2 days before symptoms through to when the person isolated.
Their test request could easily be 4 days ago. test 2 days ago, result today.
Hmm I guess that could make sense then. Cheers
Very different situation, surely?
They want to use a dosage that was tested in a phase 2 trial, based on data on the immune response that dosage generates under those specific circumstances. And the change in dosing would be based on conducting a follow-up study to test their hypotheses to get specific approval from the regulator.
The comparison to Pfizer would be if the UK decided to use a 10μg dose rather than a 30μg dose, which they tested in phase II as well. They're not doing that because the evidence suggests it wouldn't be very effective.
The UK's decision to delay dosing is not at all equivalent because the same evidence doesn't exist. They didn't experiment with different intervals and they aren't conducting a validation study for their hypothesis. They're just running a live trial on the population on the assumption their hypothesis is correct, and if it isn't, the downsides that will follow are thought to be smaller than the current risk of not doing it. It is an act of desperation, I'm not sure why you keep trying to sugar coat it with speculation that it must be based on something real. They can't invent the data so they have to go with their best guess. It doesn't change the fact it's a guess.