SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Wibble

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On this forum there's far more people sympathetic to the China approach than think the virus is a hoax. If memory serves there was literally a thread asking if we should be more like China a few months ago.

In terms of threats to Western society I would put the use of fear as a tool to propagate totalitarian ideals far above a small minority of nut jobs believing the virus is a hoax. Hell our Home Secretary is regularly guilty of the former, whilst I've seen no member of the cabinet promoting Covid denial.
The fear of covid isn't a tool to propagate totality ideas. It is just a silly thing to say.

I doubt 1 person is advocating a Wuhan style lockdown but a NZ or AU style response would have saved most of the 80,000 lives lost in the UK so far.
 
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Pexbo

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This is pretty remarkable. Estimated 20% of UK have been infected already. Up to 50% in some areas.

Arguably makes an even more compelling case for doing an antibody test on everyone and putting everyone with prior infection at the back of the queue. Would be a major shortcut to herd immunity, assuming supply is the rate limiting step.
Isn’t it the case that antibodies aren’t necessarily always present after a certain period although the body is capable of quickly making more should they come into contact with the virus?

So you could have someone who is essentially “vaccinated” however an antibody test wouldn’t actually suggest that?
 

Pogue Mahone

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Isn’t it the case that antibodies aren’t necessarily always present after a certain period although the body is capable of quickly making more should they come into contact with the virus?

So you could have someone who is essentially “vaccinated” however an antibody test wouldn’t actually suggest that?
Kind of true, yes. Although the serology tests for prior exposure specifically test for the type antibody that lingers round the longest. But there is a chance that some people with undiagnosed prior infection would get a vaccine. Not really a problem though.
 

Wibble

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Isn’t it the case that antibodies aren’t necessarily always present after a certain period although the body is capable of quickly making more should they come into contact with the virus?

So you could have someone who is essentially “vaccinated” however an antibody test wouldn’t actually suggest that?
The longer post infection the greater the chance that antibodies will decline to the point where they aren't detectable. Hopefully (and likely) the memory cells will still be there to kick into action when needed. So an antibody test wouldn't catch everyone who had some immunity and we also don't really know if the aysmptomatic/low symptomatic cases produce as good an immune response as the vaccines will.

I think the main issue is that it might not be practical to test everyone for antibodies before they are vaccinated. We are struggling with the current logistics so I suspect an added test for 70 million people won't be possible. I could also see mass confusion resulting as people are tested, wait for results etc etc. Of course if there are serious supply issues then that might change.
 

finneh

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The fear of covid isn't a tool to propagate totality ideas. It is just a silly thing to say.

I doubt 1 person is advocating a Wuhan style lockdown but a NZ or AU style response would have saved most of the 80,000 lives lost in the UK so far.
In truth I didn't mean specifically that the fear of Covid is being used to propagate totalitarianism; I meant that using fear as a tool was a far greater threat to Western society than vaccine deniers. I was thinking specifically anti-terrorism legislation (snoopers charter, extended rights to hold with charge etc), legislation compromising the right to protest (London police getting a ban on Extinction Rebellion from protesting and Cressida Dick stating more powers were needed to effectively deal with protesters) and anti-immigration legislation/rhetoric (hostile environment etc). However I think it would be naive to think that governments present and in the future aren't taking note of the extent to which the public will support draconian measures when a few "protect the NHS" slogans and the fear of God is put into them.

In terms of advocating a NZ/AU approach I think given the state of the UK by March (wholesale community transmission) and the inter-connected nature of the Country it's disingenuous to say that those measures would be effective. If they would be you'd have seen dozens of EU countries implementing them.

I can't see anything less than China type measures being able to achieve Covid zero in the UK. In truth they'd probably fail as well as public and media criticism would force a U turn quickly.
 

Hernandez - BFA

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I understand your reaction . When BFA Hernandez posted that I initially thought he must be a hypochondriac.

.....
Yo, what's this shit? I gave an honest opinion on what kind of reaction I experienced, while also offering a pre-warning that I tend to react terribly to vaccines (Flu, Hepatitis boosters, Yellow Fever vaccination) etc. Not sure why, but it happens.

Hypochondriac? Damn. Never been called that in my life.
 

rcoobc

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Yo, what's this shit? I gave an honest opinion on what kind of reaction I experienced, while also offering a pre-warning that I tend to react terribly to vaccines (Flu, Hepatitis boosters, Yellow Fever vaccination) etc. Not sure why, but it happens.

Hypochondriac? Damn. Never been called that in my life.
I wasn't calling you one :lol: It's a long story.

I thought you might have been when you said "I've had COVID twice and vaccine is worse" but then I actually read your post and you obviously aren't.
 

mikey_d

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Had my vaccine 2nd of jan. spent most of the next day sleeping was very lethargic, arms and legs a bit achy but nothing dramatic. Out of 50+ Colleagues I’ve chatted to about it a good number had a similar experience (about 30%) some had headache and low grade fever( about another 10%). One person had a bit more of a severe reaction and was running very high temps - they had previously had a quite severe covid infection. Almost Everyone’s side effects only last about 24 hours once they started.
The vast majority had no problems other than some soreness at injection site which most people get with any vaccine.
 

Wibble

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In terms of advocating a NZ/AU approach I think given the state of the UK by March (wholesale community transmission) and the inter-connected nature of the Country it's disingenuous to say that those measures would be effective. If they would be you'd have seen dozens of EU countries implementing them.
It would have been harder but quite possible if the political will and competence was there. At the end of July Australia (mainly Victoria) and the UK both had just over 700 daily infections. Australia got that down to zero even though the outbreak started during winter and the UK went the other way due to doing almost nothing in summer and autumn and far too little/too late in winter.

I can't see anything less than China type measures being able to achieve Covid zero in the UK. In truth they'd probably fail as well as public and media criticism would force a U turn quickly.
The UK looks like a bit of a basket case from outside now so I can't see any chance of decisive proactive decision coming from this government. Their best hope is getting as many people as possible vaccinated during this belated and rather half arsed lockdown and hope the public forget the death toll come the next election.

I think their covid response isn't far off a Yes prime Minister script

Sir Richard Wharton: In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.

Sir Humphrey Appleton: Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.

Sir Richard Wharton: In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.

Sir Humphrey Appleton: Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.
 
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Wibble

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I wasn't calling you one :lol: It's a long story.

I thought you might have been when you said "I've had COVID twice and vaccine is worse" but then I actually read your post and you obviously aren't.
Enthusiastically immune? ;)

I'd guess the good news for @Hernandez - BFA is that we could probably start farming him to make monoclonal antibody treatments :)
 

Hernandez - BFA

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I wasn't calling you one :lol: It's a long story.

I thought you might have been when you said "I've had COVID twice and vaccine is worse" but then I actually read your post and you obviously aren't.
I know I know - my comment was very tongue in cheek. I didn't portray it the way I was aiming for.
No problemo.
 

Wibble

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Central Brisbane yesterday.




3 day lockdown while we contract trace all the contacts of the quarantine hotel worker who was infected with the new UK variant. 175 contacts have been traced and 112 tested negative so far with the rest waiting on results.

The NSW outbreak seems in its final stage with only 3 new cases - all close contacts of known infections.
3 day lockdown ends but masks and distancing still mandated. No transmissions from the 1 case of community transmission (quarantine hotel worker with the UK variant) and they have tranced the 370 people they had contact with while infectious - some tests still to come back but looking good so far.

NSW is down to a handful of daily infections with known sources so again fingers crossed NSW will be covid free again soon especially as the Northern beaches cluster that started it all has been stamped out most likely. The worrying thing is that we don't known how this cluster escaped from the quarantine hotel where is was genomically traced to.
 

finneh

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It would have been harder but quite possible if the political will and competence was there. At the end of July Australia (mainly Victoria) and the UK both had just over 700 daily infections. Australia got that down to zero even though the outbreak started during winter and the UK went the other way due to doing almost nothing in summer and autumn and far too little/too late in winter.



The UK looks like a bit of a basket case from outside now so I can't see any chance of decisive proactive decision coming from this government. Their best hope is getting as many people as possible vaccinated during this belated and rather half arsed lockdown and hope the public forget the death toll come the next election.

I think their covid response isn't far off a Yes prime Minister script

Sir Richard Wharton: In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.

Sir Humphrey Appleton: Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.

Sir Richard Wharton: In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we *can* do.

Sir Humphrey Appleton: Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.
Whilst I agree the UK response has been nothing short of atrocious; why do you think no European country has gone down the AU/NZ route if it was "quite possible" (especially given that almost every country has adopted a somewhat different approach)?
 

Wibble

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Whilst I agree the UK response has been nothing short of atrocious; why do you think no European country has gone down the AU/NZ route if it was "quite possible" (especially given that almost every country has adopted a somewhat different approach)?
Because it would have been harder and more painful than it was for NZ or AU so nobody was prepared to take bold enough action early enough. As usual politicians are worried about votes rather than doing the right thing. Many like the UK (initially) and Sweden were seduced by the idiotic idea of letting the virus run riot to get get herd immunity when it was fairly obvious how flawed that thinking was.

Others just tried to muddle through. Australia would have done almost the same but our Federal government weren't allowed to make a cock up by the state premiers who could shut borders etc and sell it as looking after "my people" which was and is hugely popular in the main.
 

Traub

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3 day lockdown ends but masks and distancing still mandated. No transmissions from the 1 case of community transmission (quarantine hotel worker with the UK variant) and they have tranced the 370 people they had contact with while infectious - some tests still to come back but looking good so far.

NSW is down to a handful of daily infections with known sources so again fingers crossed NSW will be covid free again soon especially as the Northern beaches cluster that started it all has been stamped out most likely. The worrying thing is that we don't known how this cluster escaped from the quarantine hotel where is was genomically traced to.
This is extremely interesting IMO. The latest variants popping up are supposed to be much more transmissible. However, there seems to be minimal transmissions (if any) to 370 contacts. Were masks and social distancing mandatory at the time?
 

11101

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Because it would have been harder and more painful than it was for NZ or AU so nobody was prepared to take bold enough action early enough. As usual politicians are worried about votes rather than doing the right thing. Many like the UK (initially) and Sweden were seduced by the idiotic idea of letting the virus run riot to get get herd immunity when it was fairly obvious how flawed that thinking was.

Others just tried to muddle through. Australia would have done almost the same but our Federal government weren't allowed to make a cock up by the state premiers who could shut borders etc and sell it as looking after "my people" which was and is hugely popular in the main.
It would never have been possible in Europe. Closing all the borders would be fundamentally against what the EU is about, and there are too many countries with differing levels of will and competence to make it work. The infrastructure to close internal borders is just not there. They could have attempted to close external borders (and have now done so, sort of) but it's still haphazard. You might expect Germany could effectively close its borders to the world, but how confident are you Greece and Bulgaria would lock Turkey out?

With Brexit already underway the UK as an island could possibly have done it and got away with it.
 

Tony Babangida

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It would never have been possible in Europe. Closing all the borders would be fundamentally against what the EU is about, and there are too many countries with differing levels of will and competence to make it work. The infrastructure to close internal borders is just not there. They could have attempted to close external borders (and have now done so, sort of) but it's still haphazard. You might expect Germany could effectively close its borders to the world, but how confident are you Greece and Bulgaria would lock Turkey out?

With Brexit already underway the UK as an island could possibly have done it and got away with it.
Think an interesting question is whether the UK will close all external borders for the next pandemic given what we have learned from this one. There is a greater flux of people between the UK and the world than for Aus/NZ so it would likely be an unpopular/divisive policy. Would have been a very hard call to make at the beginning of the pandemic and given that it took the government a while to take it seriously it was never going to happen.

I vaguely remember that that the dogma when all this kicked off was that closing international borders wasn’t necessary (and community use of masks wouldn’t help!).
 

jojojo

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This is extremely interesting IMO. The latest variants popping up are supposed to be much more transmissible. However, there seems to be minimal transmissions (if any) to 370 contacts. Were masks and social distancing mandatory at the time?
The contacts could mean anything though. Does it include everyone at the hotel whose room they entered, plus everyone whose trays they might have touched, or food they may have prepared, plus all the other staff at the hotel. In which case it might give us some reassurance about fomites (surfaces/objects carrying infection).

Depending on their household/family situation they may not have that many indoors close contacts.

How they caught it is interesting as well of course.
 

Pexbo

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Think an interesting question is whether the UK will close all external borders for the next pandemic given what we have learned from this one. There is a greater flux of people between the UK and the world than for Aus/NZ so it would likely be an unpopular/divisive policy. Would have been a very hard call to make at the beginning of the pandemic and given that it took the government a while to take it seriously it was never going to happen.

I vaguely remember that that the dogma when all this kicked off was that closing international borders wasn’t necessary (and masks wouldn’t help!).
Depends entirely on the government. This government wouldn’t change a single thing about their response given the chance to do it all over again. How am I so sure about this? Because at every single turn they have ignored expert advice until it is too late and they learnt absolutely nothing from the first wave. They also failed to implement sensible measures like requiring a negative test when you arrive in the country for months and months with absolutely no explanation as to why.
 

Wibble

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This is extremely interesting IMO. The latest variants popping up are supposed to be much more transmissible. However, there seems to be minimal transmissions (if any) to 370 contacts. Were masks and social distancing mandatory at the time?
Only 10 were considered close contacts and one of those (her husband) just tested positive.

I'm not sure what restrictions Qld had at the time. Distancing regs for sure but not sure if masks were compulsory. Probably only advisory.
 

Tony Babangida

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Depends entirely on the government. This government wouldn’t change a single thing about their response given the chance to do it all over again. How am I so sure about this? Because at every single turn they have ignored expert advice until it is too late and they learnt absolutely nothing from the first wave. They also failed to implement sensible measures like requiring a negative test when you arrive in the country for months and months with absolutely no explanation as to why.
Scary to think they could have been even worse if it hadn’t nearly killed fat Boris.
 

Wibble

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It would never have been possible in Europe. Closing all the borders would be fundamentally against what the EU is about
Yet France closed its border with UK late last year. Each country can still close its borders it would seem.
 

jojojo

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Think an interesting question is whether the UK will close all external borders for the next pandemic given what we have learned from this one. There is a greater flux of people between the UK and the world than for Aus/NZ so it would likely be an unpopular/divisive policy. Would have been a very hard call to make at the beginning of the pandemic and given that it took the government a while to take it seriously it was never going to happen.

I vaguely remember that that the dogma when all this kicked off was that closing international borders wasn’t necessary (and community use of masks wouldn’t help!).
Closing is genuinely difficult within Europe though, even for an island. France implemented a temporary border closure with the UK just before Christmas - within two days we had 10000 lorries + drivers waiting at the port.

People living in one country, working in another is common in Europe. Maintenance teams often work across the whole of Europe.

Improved testing, with faster (and more reliable) turnround times might be practical, but closures? I'm sure we'll hear the politicians announce them in the future, but the exceptions list will be big.
 

BD

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Yet France closed its border with UK late last year. Each country can still close its borders it would seem.
The fact that's a sea border makes it easier though right?

For example, I can't see how it'd be possible for Switzerland and Germany to close their border. There's a heap of road crossings between the two, as well as towns and cities built on the border. A lot of people live in one and work in the other (usually live in Germany and work in Switzerland).

And that's just one border, I guess the same is true for most countries on the continent.
 

Solius

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My gf is awaiting some results because she's felt light-headed and nauseous the last few days. I've felt fine but woken up today quite off-balance and dizzy, also got a bit of nausea but none of the symptoms they tell you to keep an eye out for. I know they can be wide ranging though.

Should get my gfs results soon and my test is on the way I think.
 

Tibs

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Tony Blair giving his thoughts and advice to Hancock and Dido Harding.

I hate Blair. But, I hope he told that useless shit Dido Harding to get Track & Trace up to scratch.
 

Pogue Mahone

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The fact that's a sea border makes it easier though right?

For example, I can't see how it'd be possible for Switzerland and Germany to close their border. There's a heap of road crossings between the two, as well as towns and cities built on the border. A lot of people live in one and work in the other (usually live in Germany and work in Switzerland).

And that's just one border, I guess the same is true for most countries on the continent.
Closing borders within the EU is a non-starter. I wish people would stop pretending it’s an option (or ever was an option). It won’t ever happen. For obvious reasons.

The only possible radical response would have been the whole of the EU closing borders with the rest of the world. I hope that we have a lot of discussions now about how this might work in a future pandemic. Unfortunately, Brexit has complicated things (a phrase we’ll hear a lot in the years ahead)