SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Fluctuation0161

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Ecstatic

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"The worst thing now would be for...the vaccine programme to breed any kind of complacency"

I really hope this isn't the assumption the government are operating under because it seems obvious that as the vaccines roll out to friends and family, people will relax. Many people are agreeing to do things they consider inhuman because we're in the most extreme situation, once people feel it is no longer so extreme, they won't be as vigilant. And once some people in the community start to relax, particularly those you know, you'll start relaxing too. Once the people "at risk" in your community are vaccinated, then you'll be able to rationalise the wider community risks away, and feel more comfortable taking your own personal risks. Even when those rationalisations are based on miscalculations of the risk.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a big spike in hospitalisations among the 45-64 year old age group towards the end of Feb. Once their parents and elderly family and friends are safe, I think a lot of people will start socialising relatively normally. That age group are still about 50% less likely to be infected than younger adults because they adhere more strongly to the restrictions, but they're 3-4x as likely to be hospitalised. If 3x as many people aged 45-64 got infected as do currently, which doesn't seem a huge leap given the sheltered lives so many are living currently, it would make up for all of the 65+s no longer in hospital.

The estimates are based on the hospitalisation rates from here, which suggest in the week after Christmas there were around 200 kids aged 0-14 newly hospitalised with covid, 2,000 15-44 year olds, 5,000 45-64 year olds, 3,500 65-74 year olds, 4,500 75-84 year olds, and 4,000 85+. All of which totals up to just over 19,000 cases, which matches the total for England from here, so probably underestimates the UK total for each age group by ~ 15%.
On which levels of indicators (number of vaccinated people/cases&deaths per day, etc.) do you think that people should start to live relatively normally?
 
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calodo2003

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At least y’all have a vaccination plan. Word is coming out here that we really had no true vaccination plan in place after the initial rollout of the vaccine itself.
 

Ecstatic

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As genocide? No.
As a war crime, surely.
You should go and research the definition of genocide.
@esmu

I'm unsure why you are both splitting hairs here. I'd say it has destroyed the nation in all but name.

genocide
noun

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/
[uncountable, countable]
  1. the murder of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group, with the aim of destroying that nation or group
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/genocide

Anyway, back on topic...
Genocide and war crime are political concepts used by institutions and the so-called international community. I prefer a neutral definition "mass murder" whatever the context.
 
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Pogue Mahone

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How would explain that Ireland seems to have the worst dynamics?
Combination of being riddled with the highly contagious “UK variant” and an inherently very sociable culture, that lost the run of ourselves when restrictions were eased in the run up to Christmas.

A lot of it is timing too. We squashed our second wave more effectively than almost every other European country in November which meant that we opened up at a time of year where people always tend to shop/socialise like crazy, while most (all?) other countries were still tightening their restrictions. It didn’t help that we eased off while good news about vaccines was all over the news, which amped up the giddiness.
 

Ecstatic

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Combination of being riddled with the very contagious “UK variant” and an inherently very sociable culture, that lost the run of ourselves when restrictions were eased in the run up to Christmas.
Thanks. Another tweet about the country.

 

Pogue Mahone

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Thanks. Another tweet about the country.

Yeah. That B117 strain took over incredibly fast. Courtesy of constant heavy traffic between Uk and Ireland. No coincidence that our border counties are the worst hit. It’s a hell of a Brexit leaving gift.

I don’t know what the % looks like in the rest of Europe but suspect it’s a lot lower.
 

Fingeredmouse

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@esmu

I'm unsure why you are both splitting hairs here. I'd say it has destroyed the nation in all but name.

genocide
noun

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/

/ˈdʒenəsaɪd/
[uncountable, countable]
  1. the murder of a large number of people from a particular nation or ethnic group, with the aim of destroying that nation or group
https://www.oxfordlearnersdictionaries.com/definition/english/genocide

Anyway, back on topic...
Because it's hyperbolic and undermines the genuine issues of what Blair did.
Anyway. Back, as you rightly say, on topic.
 

Pogue Mahone

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SalfordRed18

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All hospitalised patients though. I’d be surprised if most people hospitalised with a medical illness didn’t have at least one symptom 6 months later. If you’re so medically ill you need to go into hospital it can take a long time to fully recuperate, no matter what put you there.
I personally know a couple of people who weren't hospitalised but are still feeling the effects of covid in fairness.

Also, hasn't pogba suffered from long covid to an extent or have I made that up?
 

11101

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I personally know a couple of people who weren't hospitalised but are still feeling the effects of covid in fairness.

Also, hasn't pogba suffered from long covid to an extent or have I made that up?
I haven't heard about Pogba, I doubt he could play 90 minutes if he has any lasting effects. Lampard said Kai Havertz has problems though.
 

Pogue Mahone

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I personally know a couple of people who weren't hospitalised but are still feeling the effects of covid in fairness.

Also, hasn't pogba suffered from long covid to an extent or have I made that up?
If Pogba’s capable of playing 90 minutes of professional football he’s obviously not doing too bad! There are lots of people out there who don’t end up in hospital that take a long time to recover. That’s true. It’s just that the specific bit of research I was talking about looked at hospitalised people only. When you’re that sick it’s not all that surprising to not be 100% after 6 months.
 

Stack

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So down here in NZ we are tightening border restrictions even further because of the new strain of Covid. We had been allowing NZ citizens and essential workers to travel here with mandatory isolation stays in Hotels for 14 days. That hasnt changed but now there is the added requirement of having a negative test within 72 hours of travel here for all other countries except for the Pacific Islands, Australia and Antartica. It looks like we are getting stricter with each month. We dont start our vaccine program until April and that is for just 750,000 people initially out of a 5 million population. We arent expected to get the majority of the population vaccinated until the end of the year. So it looks like another full year of basically isolation from tourism and general travel for us. Right now its summer and the majority of the population are pretty happy with the state of things, the economy is doing much much better than predicted, unemployment is still low but there are some clouds on the horizon and I expect people to start putting pressure on Govt to adapt by the end of the year. We desperately want everywhere else to start having some success with the virus both for them but also for our own desires. Its going to be a long year even when Im just looking in from the sidelines.
 

Volumiza

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All five of the people I know who’ve had the virus still have symptoms or after effects. One couple, mid 60’s, who were in ICU in March last year still struggle with fatigue and shortness of breath.

Another, a regular client of mine, male in his late 40’s, wasn’t hospitalised first time but was admitted a month or so later still has fatigue and shortness of breath. I haven’t actually heard from him for some time now.

The others, my friend at work, 31, and his fiancé, late 20’s had it back in Oct. They both seemed to have quite a mild bout and they’re still suffering from fatigue.

The fact that my client and work friends are young (ish) and still not fully recovered is something of a concern.
 

rcoobc

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So down here in NZ we are tightening border restrictions even further because of the new strain of Covid. We had been allowing NZ citizens and essential workers to travel here with mandatory isolation stays in Hotels for 14 days. That hasnt changed but now there is the added requirement of having a negative test within 72 hours of travel here for all other countries except for the Pacific Islands, Australia and Antartica. It looks like we are getting stricter with each month. We dont start our vaccine program until April and that is for just 750,000 people initially out of a 5 million population. We arent expected to get the majority of the population vaccinated until the end of the year. So it looks like another full year of basically isolation from tourism and general travel for us. Right now its summer and the majority of the population are pretty happy with the state of things, the economy is doing much much better than predicted, unemployment is still low but there are some clouds on the horizon and I expect people to start putting pressure on Govt to adapt by the end of the year. We desperately want everywhere else to start having some success with the virus both for them but also for our own desires. Its going to be a long year even when Im just looking in from the sidelines.
Just count yourself lucky. You can either live with restrictions and without the virus, or with restrictions with the virus.

I'm glad you guys aren't taking up vaccine stock unnecessarily.
 

Fluctuation0161

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So down here in NZ we are tightening border restrictions even further because of the new strain of Covid. We had been allowing NZ citizens and essential workers to travel here with mandatory isolation stays in Hotels for 14 days. That hasnt changed but now there is the added requirement of having a negative test within 72 hours of travel here for all other countries except for the Pacific Islands, Australia and Antartica. It looks like we are getting stricter with each month. We dont start our vaccine program until April and that is for just 750,000 people initially out of a 5 million population. We arent expected to get the majority of the population vaccinated until the end of the year. So it looks like another full year of basically isolation from tourism and general travel for us. Right now its summer and the majority of the population are pretty happy with the state of things, the economy is doing much much better than predicted, unemployment is still low but there are some clouds on the horizon and I expect people to start putting pressure on Govt to adapt by the end of the year. We desperately want everywhere else to start having some success with the virus both for them but also for our own desires. Its going to be a long year even when Im just looking in from the sidelines.
That is a great position to be in. Most countries in Europe are locked down in their homes.
 

Classical Mechanic

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All five of the people I know who’ve had the virus still have symptoms or after effects. One couple, mid 60’s, who were in ICU in March last year still struggle with fatigue and shortness of breath.

Another, a regular client of mine, male in his late 40’s, wasn’t hospitalised first time but was admitted a month or so later still has fatigue and shortness of breath. I haven’t actually heard from him for some time now.

The others, my friend at work, 31, and his fiancé, late 20’s had it back in Oct. They both seemed to have quite a mild bout and they’re still suffering from fatigue.

The fact that my client and work friends are young (ish) and still not fully recovered is something of a concern.
My next door neighbour has long Covid. He was in hospital for 10 days. He's totally fecked and needs an oxygen machine. He can last 15 minutes without the machine and walk about 15 yards at a time. He's in his late 60s. They've told him 6 months before he'll start to feel somewhat better. You have to wonder how many years it's going to take off his life.
 

Stack

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That is a great position to be in. Most countries in Europe are locked down in their homes.
Sorry, having read back what I posted it looks like gloating. Its not meant that way at all. I have family up in Scotland who are older and have been in some form of lockdown or restrictins since March which bothers me. I really hope you guys in Europe get some positive news of some sort soon
 

Volumiza

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My next door neighbour has long Covid. He was in hospital for 10 days. He's totally fecked and needs an oxygen machine. He can last 15 minutes without the machine and walk about 15 yards at a time. He's in his late 60s. They've told him 6 months before he'll start to feel somewhat better. You have to wonder how many years it's going to take off his life.
Yeah it’s awful to see. My client has been so ill since sept / Oct that he’s barely been in contact.

Ive wondered about the bolded bit with my friends Mum and Stepdad. His stepdad especially has aged so much in the last 10 months.
 

Classical Mechanic

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Penna

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A very interesting article about the first (to date) person with Covid in Italy, diagnosed from a biopsy of a mysterious skin rash:

A woman in Milan was positive for the new coronavirus in November 2019, researchers have found, making her the earliest known patient in Italy to date.

Traces of the virus were detected in skin cells from a 25-year-old woman who had a biopsy for an unusual skin condition on November 10th 2019, according to Raffaele Gianotti, a researcher in dermatology at the University of Milan, who believes she could be "the dermatological Italian patient zero". At the time the woman reported having a mild sore throat, and months later tested positive for Covid-19 antibodies in her blood.

Previously the first confirmed Covid-19 patient in Italy was a child in Milan, who was swabbed after developing a measles-like rash in early December 2019 – two months before it became clear that the virus was circulating in the nearby town of Codogno, where 'native' cases were first detected in mid-February.

Gianotti and a team from the European Institute of Oncology (IEO) and the Italian Diagnostic Centre analysed skin samples taken in the autumn of 2019 to investigate whether any of the patients who reported skin conditions such as a rash or discolouration of fingers or toes might in fact have been showing symptoms of Covid-19.

Their study, to be published in the British Journal of Dermatology, found molecular traces of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the biopsy taken from areas of reddened skin on the Milan woman's arms, which fitted a pattern seen in other Covid-19 patients.
Full article: https://www.thelocal.it/20210112/it...-milan-woman-had-coronavirus-in-november-2019
 

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-reinstate-bouncers-outside-supermarkets.html

Gladys not feeling the urgency for masks in the supermarket

But after putting on her mask, Gladys then lowered it below her mouth as she continued with her shop. She said: 'I find them too uncomfortable. I don't see what the fuss is, I've got a mask on, it's just not covering my nose and mouth at the moment'
:lol: Nice one Gladys.
The number of people not wearing masks does seem to be going up a bit in my area.
 

Pogue Mahone

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https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...-reinstate-bouncers-outside-supermarkets.html

Gladys not feeling the urgency for masks in the supermarket

But after putting on her mask, Gladys then lowered it below her mouth as she continued with her shop. She said: 'I find them too uncomfortable. I don't see what the fuss is, I've got a mask on, it's just not covering my nose and mouth at the moment'
Compliance with masks in shops in Ireland has been flawless in my experience. Literally never seen anyone not wearing one since it became obligatory a few months ago. Hasn’t stopped us topping the covid charts, mind you.

I do find it incredibly selfish though. What kind of twat wouldn’t put the mask over their nose/mouth for the brief time they’re walking around a shop?
 

Acole9

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It annoys me when they walk round the shop looking really pleased with themselves. Everyone thinks you're a selfish twat, no need to be smug.