SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

[McGrathsipan]

What's going to happen overall?

Say 20 years from now ? What will the world look like? Are we still going to be in this vaccine and variant cycle?

 

[jojojo]

What's going to happen overall?

Say 20 years from now ? What will the world look like? Are we still going to be in this vaccine and variant cycle?

My guess - booster jabs for the vulnerable that cover covid and flu and are highly effective at keeping people out of hospital. As to which age groups etc will need them and how often - that does depend on new variants and new vaccine designs.

 

[Beans]

As long as they don't give it to anyone else or suffer complications or long covid themselves it's only a problem to the kids who don't have teachers this week. Hopefully the same will be true of the other 150k positive covid tests we'll see this week or the million or so we'll see over the next month - maybe they'll all be lucky and so will the people affected by their absence from work and caring duties.

Provided of course that none of the people affected spawns a viral mutation change that creates a variant that dodges the vaccine or infection immunity people have developed so far.

People are going to have to get this virus eventually, it's just not possible to prevent it forever. I do realize there are complications, but I don't think many people want to live under lockdown for the rest of their lives, the complications from that would be extreme. The US has already done what the UK is going through, so you have an idea of what to expect.

It will certainly be a disaster if half the people who get it end up with significant lung damage, I haven't heard anything about that since very early in the pandemic, where doctors were reporting asymptomatic cases having significant lung damage.

(Edit: here's the first article I found: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200811/asymptomatic-covid-silent-but-maybe-not-harmless)

 

[11101]

My guess - booster jabs for the vulnerable that cover covid and flu and are highly effective at keeping people out of hospital. As to which age groups etc will need them and how often - that does depend on new variants and new vaccine designs.

Yeah, my guess is that after a round or three of booster jabs and repeated exposures to new strains most people will have enough built up immunity to fight off any new variants on their own. The vulnerable will get boosters to help them out.

In other words, it will be just like the flu one day.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

What's going to happen overall?

Say 20 years from now ? What will the world look like? Are we still going to be in this vaccine and variant cycle?

My guess - booster jabs for the vulnerable that cover covid and flu and are highly effective at keeping people out of hospital. As to which age groups etc will need them and how often - that does depend on new variants and new vaccine designs.

Yeah, my guess is that after a round or three of booster jabs and repeated exposures to new strains most people will have enough built up immunity to fight off any new variants on their own. The vulnerable will get boosters to help them out.

In other words, it will be just like the flu one day.

I agree with this. And don’t think it will take 20 years. 2 or 3 should do it.

 

[McGrathsipan]

I agree with this. And don’t think it will take 20 years. 2 or 3 should do it.

Cheers.

 

[Isotope]

A couple of my 40-something family members tested positive on their routine LFT tests earlier this week. Both primary school teachers, both double vaccinated. They and their unvaccinated teenage son have all now tested positive on PCR. None of them seriously ill fortunately, and they're all quarantined, but it's still grim news.

It's like a viral/vaccine experimentation Petri dish out there.

Just trying to be positive, now they have immune system to infected variant. Don't know for how long, though.

 

[Wibble]

All of her threads since start of pandemic have been pessimistic even when cases were falling

Nothing pessimistic about seeking explanations for obviously worrying data.

 

[africanspur]

The Tories: We need to open back up again ASAP, to safeguard mental health. Mental health is absolutely vital.

Also the Tories: Mental health beds down by 25% since 2010

 

[Massive Spanner]

I fail to see the issue, it's not like Britain suffered loads of deaths from opening up everything too early before.

 

[groovyalbert]

I fail to see the issue, it's not like Britain suffered loads of deaths from opening up everything too early before.

Whilst you're right to point over-ambitious relaxing of the rules previously, things are obviously better now.

The vaccine is having a huge impact on cases converting to hospitalizations/deaths, and it's hardly as if we're in a strict lockdown scenario currently.

Bar the making of masks compulsory, it sort of seems unfair to insist on certain areas remaining shutdown/activities prohibited whilst other areas are operating close to normal.

 

[Snowjoe]

They can have whatever restrictions or non restrictions they like but the more people you talk to the more people are totally over it and don’t care anymore.

 

[Penna]

Until adults in poorer countries are able to get free vaccines, we won't be able to say the worst is over. It's OK for people in Europe and North America where we're awash with jabs and even have a choice, but we have to have a global solution to this. Even in a rich country like Australia things aren't good on the vaccination front, albeit for different reasons.

Countries with unbalanced Covid-denying leaders fare worst of all.

 

[Vidyoyo]

The Tories: We need to open back up again ASAP, to safeguard mental health. Mental health is absolutely vital.

Also the Tories: Mental health beds down by 25% since 2010

Sounds like a vague PR attempt. The Tories have done little to consider the psychological impact and invited the wrath of lots of chartered psychologists. Stephen Reicher of SAGE recently argued that they've given psychology a bad name:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/24/psychology-uk-covid-response

 

[jojojo]

Bar the making of masks compulsory, it sort of seems unfair to insist on certain areas remaining shutdown/activities prohibited whilst other areas are operating close to normal.

Yep, to be honest the missing businesses are ones that people who are at most risk can avoid until case numbers calm down. Which if the number juggling of the modellers is accurate should happen in August.

I would like to see compulsory masks and social distancing continue in those places that the at risk can't avoid. So, in particular the shops we considered essential (primarily supermarkets and chemists) and on public transport. A measure of protection for people so that the 19th July genuinely is a step forward for everyone.

At the moment, I'm aware it's a step backwards for some of my family who had just started going shopping again for example (and even going out for a meal!) and who now have decided to retreat again. Which means I'm back to being the designated shopper and I'll be buying FFP2 masks for me, having been content with washables and surgical masks during the "if you're both wearing a mask the risk is less" era.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Bar the making of masks compulsory, it sort of seems unfair to insist on certain areas remaining shutdown/activities prohibited whilst other areas are operating close to normal.

I see this line a lot, and it makes sense. But only to a point.

If a Cinema/Theatre/Venue has a Capacity of 500, with current Covid calculations ruling it a 250 capacity, with seat gaps and Masks…. The next step should not be ‘500 Capacity. No masks’. That won’t help industry, or health measures, or Public Confidence.

People would need to be convinced to sit shoulder to shoulder with a stranger that was fully vaccinated for two hours. To suggest people will flood back to those sections of the economy with zero protections or mitigation’s is bananas. But Tories will Tory.

I do hope that all the Pearl clutching Cnuts that trot out ‘Blair is a war criminal’ for the 50-150k deaths (179 of them British) in another country over 8 years on his watch, are just as keen to call Boris Johnson a murderer for the rest of his days. 125k deaths at least. Not based off one decision. But hundreds of decisions spread out across 1.5 years. So far.

 

[UnrelatedPsuedo]

Yep, to be honest the missing businesses are ones that people who are at most risk can avoid until case numbers calm down. Which if the number juggling of the modellers is accurate should happen in August.

I would like to see compulsory masks and social distancing continue in those places that the at risk can't avoid. So, in particular the shops we considered essential (primarily supermarkets and chemists) and on public transport. A measure of protection for people so that the 19th July genuinely is a step forward for everyone.

At the moment, I'm aware it's a step backwards for some of my family who had just started going shopping again for example (and even going out for a meal!) and who now have decided to retreat again. Which means I'm back to being the designated shopper and I'll be buying FFP2 masks for me, having been content with washables and surgical masks during the "if you're both wearing a mask the risk is less" era.

It blows me away that we’re still politicising this. I’d already resigned myself to wearing a mask for at least another year.

That the 40 year old babies in our society and government are given platforms to weaponise this inane nonsense is staggering.

I hate masks. Just as much as Lawrence Fox and GMB and whatever oxygen thief is today’s latest martyr. Every bit as much. But it’s a piece of fcuking cloth when I mingle in public.

To give those dumb fcuks a say in any of This is maddening.

 

[djembatheking]

It seems we are genuinely out of the worst of it in the UK . I still don`t know whether to believe it. How are things in the rest of Europe and around the world , is Delta causing problems in countries where the vaccine uptake is lower?

 

[Massive Spanner]

It seems we are genuinely out of the worst of it in the UK . I still don`t know whether to believe it. How are things in the rest of Europe and around the world , is Delta causing problems in countries where the vaccine uptake is lower?

You probably shouldn't. We still don't know how bad it can get with Delta. The cases and hospitalisations in Scotland are showing a potentially worrying trend. Countries like Ireland and Norway have already delayed easing restrictions because of it. I'm hopeful that it won't cause a 4th wave but we simply won't know for a few more weeks.

 

[Superden]

follow the science, follow the science...erm until now.

 

[11101]

It seems we are genuinely out of the worst of it in the UK . I still don`t know whether to believe it. How are things in the rest of Europe and around the world , is Delta causing problems in countries where the vaccine uptake is lower?

It's not a huge problem in Europe yet. Delta accounts for 22.7% of cases in Italy as of the weekend just gone.

Masks have been compulsory outside until last week and we have also taken a different approach on vaccines. The focus is on getting the second doses done and people fully vaccinated, even if it has to mean a delay in first doses for the young. The UK has done the opposite all along and gone for as many first doses as possible. Personally, i think it's yet another shot in the dark from Boris as we know one dose doesn't provide great protection against the Delta variant, but who knows.

 

[djembatheking]

It's not a huge problem in Europe yet. Delta accounts for 22.7% of cases in Italy as of the weekend just gone.

Masks have been compulsory outside until last week and we have also taken a different approach on vaccines. The focus is on getting the second doses done and people fully vaccinated, even if it has to mean a delay in first doses for the young. The UK has done the opposite all along and gone for as many first doses as possible. Personally, i think it's yet another shot in the dark from Boris as we know one dose doesn't provide great protection against the Delta variant, but who knows.

Thanks for that, I think vaccine wise it varies a lot in the UK . I live in Wales and my 22 year old son is booked in for his 2nd dose on 23rd july so we are pretty much done here . Surely we should be safe now.

 

[berbatrick]

...

pretty proud of this one now

https://retractionwatch.com/2021/07...-vaccination-for-every-three-prevented-cases/
Journal retracts paper claiming two deaths from COVID-19 vaccination for every three prevented cases

At least two members of the editorial board of Vaccines have resigned over the paper’s publication.
[...]
The data from the Lareb report (https://www.lareb.nl/coronameldingen) in The Netherlands were used to calculate the number of severe and fatal side effects per 100,000 vaccinations. Unfortunately, in the manuscript by Harald Walach et al. these data were incorrectly interpreted which led to erroneous conclusions. The data was presented as being causally related to adverse events by the authors. This is inaccurate.
[...]
Walach and a co-author, Rainer Klement, sent us a statement they had submitted to Vaccines. In it, they write, “The true reason seems to have been pressure on part of some editors of the journal”

I actually agree with the last bit. A journal that published an article like that would only retract if they were under pressure - or their business model was getting publicity.

 

[Dan_F]

Yep, to be honest the missing businesses are ones that people who are at most risk can avoid until case numbers calm down. Which if the number juggling of the modellers is accurate should happen in August.

I would like to see compulsory masks and social distancing continue in those places that the at risk can't avoid. So, in particular the shops we considered essential (primarily supermarkets and chemists) and on public transport. A measure of protection for people so that the 19th July genuinely is a step forward for everyone.

At the moment, I'm aware it's a step backwards for some of my family who had just started going shopping again for example (and even going out for a meal!) and who now have decided to retreat again. Which means I'm back to being the designated shopper and I'll be buying FFP2 masks for me, having been content with washables and surgical masks during the "if you're both wearing a mask the risk is less" era.

I’ve gotta be honest, I don’t care if they get rid of masks in hospitality, but I don’t really understand why they don’t keep the guidance the same for public transport or retail. Those who don’t want to wear one won’t anyway, so why not just keep it in place for all the people that will just do what the guidance says. Just seems like a PR stunt that isn’t actually having any positive benefit, apart from satisfying skeptic voters.

 

[11101]

Thanks for that, I think vaccine wise it varies a lot in the UK . I live in Wales and my 22 year old son is booked in for his 2nd dose on 23rd july so we are pretty much done here . Surely we should be safe now.

At only 22 and with one dose in him already I'd say you're pretty safe

It's those 40 or 50 year olds who for whatever reason might not have gotten the vaccine when it first became available to them and now have to wait 8-12 weeks for the next dose that i think might be at risk from this removal of all restrictions.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

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[Dan_F]

At only 22 and with one dose in him already I'd say you're pretty safe

It's those 40 or 50 year olds who for whatever reason might not have gotten the vaccine when it first became available to them and now have to wait 8-12 weeks for the next dose that i think might be at risk from this removal of all restrictions.

They don’t. Anyone over forty can go to a walk-in site and get one. Provided you’re over the four week minimum since first dose. I would imagine they get priority to book ASAP if they have no walk in near by too.

 

[ha_rooney]

I expect a winter lockdown will be needed since they won’t be sensible & keep reasonable measures in place whilst cases continue to rise.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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he'll u-turn

 

[RoadTrip]

They’ve had all this time to refine mask rules.

But instead they’ve just gone away with it all.

For example, is it pointless to have to wear a mask from entering a restaurant until you sit down when you can take it off? Yes. And makes sense for those silly rules to go.

On the other hand, surely it would be sensible to keep masks mandatory in things like public transport where you not only have the potential to spread easily but also to spread to different locations given the various onward/origin destinations of people.

I’m happy that some restrictions are easy and I do think that overall is a right step, but there should be some kind of balance here.

 

[Pexbo]

Correct me if I’m wrong but their approach is once again to push a level of natural herd immunity against the Delta variant?

They know this is going to cause a spike but it’s not expected to be as high as if it happened during the winter. So their plan is to have a medium spike now and hope that saves us from a massive spike in the winter.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Correct me if I’m wrong but their approach is once again to push a level of natural herd immunity against the Delta variant?

They know this is going to cause a spike but it’s not expected to be as high as if it happened during the winter. So their plan is to have a medium spike now and hope that saves us from a massive spike in the winter.

That doesn’t make sense because there’s no need to rely on infections for immunity ahead of winter. The vaccines will do that instead. A medium spike before everyone is fully vaccinated carries no upside at all. Other than the upside of opening as originally scheduled.

 

[Buster15]

Goodness me. So many inconsistencies in the briefing from Boris. And the scientists seem to be going along with it. The key message was that they have to open up at some point and it is best not to do that in the winter. So better to do it now. Remember. We are being guided by the DATA and not the DATE.
And the message about masks was farcical in the extreme. The advice is still to wear a mask inside and in crowded places. And yet we don't have to wear a mask after 19th July.
Well I for one is going to carry on as I have been.

 

[Superden]

I feel for the vulnerable who basically cant leave their houses again for risk of infection. only a quick look at the daily mail comments section shows how much appetite their is to never wear a mask again regardless....

 

[Superden]

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[Buster15]

I feel for the vulnerable who basically cant leave their houses again for risk of infection. only a quick look at the daily mail comments section shows how much appetite their is to never wear a mask again regardless....

From what I have seen recently, so many have already stopped. Or wear it round their chin...

 

[ha_rooney]

I feel for the vulnerable who basically cant leave their houses again for risk of infection. only a quick look at the daily mail comments section shows how much appetite their is to never wear a mask again regardless....

I hate the term “freedom day” that so many in the media & politics have used, particularly with the masks. Wearing wearing a mask is not some draconian measure that you need to be freed from, ffs!!!

 

[United Hobbit]

It's ramping up again in schools

They're even preempting the problems their desperation to throw everything back to normal will cause as apparently "sadly deaths will go up"

Oh but obviously that's fine provided they can go back to normal it doesn't help all the moaning that went on after they pushed it back a month.

But don't forget even though "deaths will go up" we need to learn to live with COVID....

I also hate the title freedom day

 

[Buster15]

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Yep. Pretty much sums it up.
Zero scientific evidence.
Zero sense.
Zero logic.
All about the date.

 

[Sigma]

Did they say anything about fully vaccinated people having to quarantine on arrival in the UK? I thought they were supposed to release some information on that today but can't find anything about it.