Zaphod2319
Full Member
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2020
- Messages
- 4,307
- Supports
- Chelsea
Chelsea
City
Man Utd
Liverpool
Spurs
Leicester
City
Man Utd
Liverpool
Spurs
Leicester
What do you call 'big money'? Because anyone betting real big money isn't doing it because they 'don't like' a team.I work with someone in that industry and frankly as soon as someone puts big money in one direction the odds change.
Can either be a one off big punter or institution (agreed they won’t bet on ‘feelings’), but equally can be a series of smaller bets that come in quickly and the odds need to be adjusted accordingly. Perhaps people piled on Chelsea and Liverpool after a decent end to the season and Utd losing the Europa. I don’t think that’s really a fair reflection of a team overall though.What do you call 'big money'? Because anyone betting real big money isn't doing it because they 'don't like' a team.
Where do you think Arsenal will finish?City
Chelsea
United
Liverpool
Leicester
Spurs
I think we might get a very good title race this year. Top four all have a good chance.
That's called hedging. It has nothing to do with likes and dislikes.I work with someone in that industry and frankly as soon as someone puts big money in one direction the odds change.
It has everything to do with perception amongst other things.That's called hedging. It has nothing to do with likes and dislikes.
Where do you think Arsenal will finish?
1.UnitedIt's time. One week before the season starts.
1,
2,
3,
4,
5,
6,
Go!
Please don't add a load of qualifiers to your predictions (if club X signed player Y then I think this...).
I just want your predictions of top six given what we all know now.
Once the season starts then no further "predictions" will be eligible for the prize.
1.United
2.city
3. Chelsea
4. Liverpool
Everything about settings odds is about perception. There is no perfect data to base decision on. But that's not liking or disliking a team.It has everything to do with perception amongst other things.
What you are saying is you personally believe the price of 9/1 for us to win the league is wrong. Individuals/institutions who bet serious money on these things from their own analysis disagree, otherwise we would see the price come down like you say.Can either be a one off big punter or institution (agreed they won’t bet on ‘feelings’), but equally can be a series of smaller bets that come in quickly and the odds need to be adjusted accordingly. Perhaps people piled on Chelsea and Liverpool after a decent end to the season and Utd losing the Europa. I don’t think that’s really a fair reflection of a team overall though.
We have been tipped out the champions league the last two seasons btw!What you are saying is you personally believe the price of 9/1 for us to win the league is wrong. Individuals/institutions who bet serious money on these things from their own analysis disagree, otherwise we would see the price come down like you say.
Sure but in football the odds will have been heavily impacted by the end of last season. The positivity surrounding Chelsea winning big ears, Liverpool going on a good run into the top four, Utd failing to get over the line in the Europa. That doesn’t change the fact we have been pretty consistent the last two seasons and finished above both last season while doing business this summer which has been the envy of everyone. How can we be less fancied than last campaign based on that evidence? Football fans are typically reactionary which is why for long term punters there’s money to be made!Everything about settings odds is about perception. There is no perfect data to base decision on. But that's not liking or disliking a team.
Why?City
Liverpool
Chelsea
United
Tottenham
Arsenal
Leicester implosion. Rodgers times up I think
No serious bets are placed on 9/1 shots.What you are saying is you personally believe the price of 9/1 for us to win the league is wrong. Individuals/institutions who bet serious money on these things from their own analysis disagree, otherwise we would see the price come down like you say.
I agree with this but reckon we might get second all the rest is spot on IMO1. Manchester City
2. Chelsea
3. Manchester United
4. Liverpool
5. Leicester
6. Aston Villa
There would be if the serious bettors thought it was wrong.No serious bets are placed on 9/1 shots.
I think Spurs will finish 6th mainly because they have Kane and Son who will always score goals, if they can stop conceding so many they'll do ok, won't win anything but do ok.On the whole, looks like we’re nailed on a familiar fifth! I struggle to see why so many have Spurs anywhere on their lists! They are a mess.
That’s not how it works though. It’s a long term bet that means it isn’t appealing and most serious bettors would wait until the window is shut and assess how teams are playing before ploughing in.There would be if the serious bettors thought it was wrong.
You're wrong but I'm not derailing the thread any more.That’s not how it works though. It’s a long term bet that means it isn’t appealing and most serious bettors would wait until the window is shut and assess how teams are playing before ploughing in.
If we win our first 4 games we wouldn’t be 9/1. That doesn’t mean a lot of serious money went on us or we suddenly proved ourselves to be title contenders because we beat Leeds and Southampton.
What does all of that have to do with liking/disliking a team or player?Sure but in football the odds will have been heavily impacted by the end of last season. The positivity surrounding Chelsea winning big ears, Liverpool going on a good run into the top four, Utd failing to get over the line in the Europa. That doesn’t change the fact we have been pretty consistent the last two seasons and finished above both last season while doing business this summer which has been the envy of everyone. How can we be less fancied than last campaign based on that evidence? Football fans are typically reactionary which is why for long term punters there’s money to be made!
I agree with this but reckon we might get second all the rest is spot on IMO