I'm afraid the only way we can reach our vaccination target is to make it mandatory. And that's really going to upset many over here. I'm all for it.
SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)
- Thread starter Don't Kill Bill
- Start date
Yeah. 10% of admissions have been under the age of two.
Yeah get a pic of something for me, enjoy your holidays mateIt's been a nightmare just getting ME done (especially with the changes in tests for when I come back) never mind you too!Sorry. I'll take a pic of something for you.. male or female?
Been googling stuff all day, THINK I'm ok but will feel a lot better when on plane.
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Fecking hell.
I don’t understand this. It’s surely a travel ban and not a trade ban?
A lot of air freight travels in the hold of tourist flights.
Seems like it’s much more transmissible than previous variants
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59465983
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/59465983
Also sounds like very mild symptoms/none at all.
Same as previous variants when it comes to sports teams outbreaks. Vast majority get off lightly.
Alright Debbie Downer
Travel round the country following this shit team we are all meant to follow, give me some hope!
Isn’t this best case scenario, and potentially our only way out of crisis mode (if true)?
From a purely observational perspective I’m fascinated to see how it pans out when it takes hold in western countries.
I think it’s still too early in its lifecycle to know how dangerous it is. Even in Africa where it was identified and taken hold it hasn’t really been long enough since the first patients were infected to know if it is going to kill many of them?
Then you have the African demographic which is younger with much fewer obese, then you have the low vaccination numbers and it’s virtually impossible to infer anything about how it might effect wester countries other than the likelihood that it’s going to spread like wildfire.
Ah, that makes sense.
Yeah, exactly. Plus it can be a lot less lethal than Delta but if it’s more transmissible and evades previous immunity (even partially) it can still end up causing overall higher mortality.
Basically, you can see why everyone is shitting themself and it’s going to be really difficult to know when you have enough data to make confident decisions about next steps.
Having said all that, there’s still a slim chance this is all a big fuss about nothing. Which would be awesome.
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Wtf, this is farcical. No way am I getting jabbed every 3-months
I don’t think yer man understands the word minimum. He definitely does not recommend everyone gets one every 3 months.
He halved the min rec time for a booster from 6 months to 3 months - not ideal mate, I've been to 3 pharmacies today and the waiting list for a booster is 3-weeks long. Logistically it's going to be a shitshow managing that
They’re not recommending a booster every 3 months. They’re recommending a single booster, 3 months after the first two doses.
Nobody, anywhere in the world, has any idea how soon any more doses will be needed after that third one. Or if any more doses will be needed.
EDIT. Jesus. The replies to that tweet. So much stupid.
I see, thanks!
I wonder whether people will consider waiting until they hear whether this will evade the current vaccines before getting a booster? If it ain’t going to work, might as well for the new vaccine. If it does work, it’s just a few weeks which is probably the waiting time anyway.
Yeah, but he doesn't recommend more than one booster (at least in that video clip)
edit: sorry for adding to multiple answers - hadn't refreshed page
It’s mostly a practical decision. There’s a new variant so it’s more important to get the booster out to as many people as possible, and they don’t want to exclude people because of an arbitrary 6-month cut off point. It doesn’t signify anything about the long-term approach to the frequency or volume of boosters. But we can safely say another booster every 3 months is not on the cards.
@jojojo @Pogue Mahone
Thanks for your answers about the Moderna booster. I also did some reading which backs up your points.
On Nov 11 some business-type guy from Moderna said there's no reported myocarditis from boosters (not sure how reliable a seemingly off-hand statement from the company is vs a formal thing from the FDA or CDC, but it's something).
And this paper backs up the point that it's possible that the root cause is 2 doses spaced tightly together - the 2nd dose risk levels are so much higher than first. And the risk drop-off at 25 and again at 30 are pretty massive (Table 2).
I'm turning 30 in a few weeks, so right on the edge of those recommendations
Thanks for your answers about the Moderna booster. I also did some reading which backs up your points.
On Nov 11 some business-type guy from Moderna said there's no reported myocarditis from boosters (not sure how reliable a seemingly off-hand statement from the company is vs a formal thing from the FDA or CDC, but it's something).
And this paper backs up the point that it's possible that the root cause is 2 doses spaced tightly together - the 2nd dose risk levels are so much higher than first. And the risk drop-off at 25 and again at 30 are pretty massive (Table 2).
I'm turning 30 in a few weeks, so right on the edge of those recommendations
https://health-e.org.za/2021/11/29/gauteng-enters-fourth-wave/
‘Groome said most patients being admitted to hospitals are unvaccinated.
“In Tshwane, 13% of hospital admissions are vaccinated people and 87% are unvaccinated people. There is a much higher risk of death among unvaccinated patients who get admitted than vaccinated patients,” she said.’
Unfortunately it doesn’t say of the 13% how many are fully vaccinated which is pretty relevant.
‘Groome said most patients being admitted to hospitals are unvaccinated.
“In Tshwane, 13% of hospital admissions are vaccinated people and 87% are unvaccinated people. There is a much higher risk of death among unvaccinated patients who get admitted than vaccinated patients,” she said.’
Unfortunately it doesn’t say of the 13% how many are fully vaccinated which is pretty relevant.
I would also love to know the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated in that region. 87:13 is scarily close to the 75:25 ratio I heard for South Africa as a whole
In SA you'd expect those kind of stats - as vax rates are low, and perhaps lower still in the young who are less likely to get hospitalised, but who live in the areas with the highest prevalence.
The other big question is around past infection. Some surveys in SA suggest that 80% of people think they've already had covid, but I'm not sure there's been a study confirming that. I suspect those kind of infection rates may exist in some narrow groups/areas, I doubt it's true of the whole population.
I found this thread interesting, probably about as up to date as you can get as well!
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All I can find online is they’ve administered 6m doses and the population is 12m…I’ve seen as much as 40% of that may have been J&J. However, in this area the vaccination rate may be higher as it’s in the city. So basically no ideaI would also love to know the ratio of vaccinated to unvaccinated in that region. 87:13 is scarily close to the 75:25 ratio I heard for South Africa as a whole
I guess you're talking about that region, but the vaccine mix is probably similar to the national one.All I can find online is they’ve administered 6m doses and the population is 12m…I’ve seen as much as 40% of that may have been J&J. However, in this area the vaccination rate may be higher as it’s in the city. So basically no idea
Across SA as a whole, about 6m people have had J&J and about 9m people have had Pfizer in SA out of a population of 60m.
Slide 12 here: https://sacoronavirus.co.za/latest-vaccine-statistics/All I can find online is they’ve administered 6m doses and the population is 12m…I’ve seen as much as 40% of that may have been J&J. However, in this area the vaccination rate may be higher as it’s in the city. So basically no idea
Gauteng seems to be below the national average. (31.6% vs 36% of adult population)
I was looking at the same data he was yesterday. Gauteng had 580 admissions listed for last week. Today that was updated to 647. Seems like other weeks were also revised upward on a sliding scale (sort of similar to daily death data here) so last week might be subject to further upwards revision. Guess that steepens the curve on the second graph slightly.
Edit: Also think "0 days" might be revised backwards in time though.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59473131
So looks like Omicron was in Netherlands earlier than assumed - this variant is already well on its way through Europe IMO.
So looks like Omicron was in Netherlands earlier than assumed - this variant is already well on its way through Europe IMO.
Of course it was. It will already be everywhere, just nobody has been looking for it.
No country has ever successfully kept any Covid variant out.
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Sure seems to rip through sports teams more effectively than delta.
its probably behind the spike in Europe over the last few months
Is there a way to check older test for this variant?
I think if it was widespread in most of Europe for more than a few weeks it would have been spotted. Sequencing is usually patchy and slow in most countries but not that far behind. That said, it could easily have started in a country with high case rates but (politically driven?) low reporting transparency or one that does minimal testing or sequencing.
Countries like the UK will start chasing back through old tests though, but they're starting with the last two weeks (because they matter for contact tracing). In the UK, if it was widespread a month ago, we would have seen it - that doesn't mean it wasn't here, just that it wasn't here in large enough amounts to explain any case rate peaks here.
The virus theoreticians who look at every genome example and try to draw infection chains for cases suggest that, based on what they've seen so far, the first omicron case was probably in early October.
It has absolutely nothing to do with Europe's spike. The chance of that is zero.
Cheers.
I havent got a clue.
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Boris and crew doing a press conference now. Main announcements are really around boosters - national target is to offer every eligible adult a booster by the end of January. Extra money for pharmacies who are giving vaccines to encourage them to do more hours. Extra money for GPs to help vaccinate more housebound vulnerable people (who are one of the groups that the rollout has been slow in). Vaccine buses are coming back for areas where the vaccination hubs are too difficult to reach.