Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

Droid_Repairs

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So would I be right in saying that

1) The war is not going as well for Russia as they expected and Ukraine are still in the fight
2) Russia is under more international pressure than they expected and it's looking increasingly like a disaster for Putin?
 

T00lsh3d

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Please, you don't live in a country of a billion+ people with a huge percentage in poverty. Russian retaliation against India could lead to a scale of human suffering of unimaginable scale (greater than what we are seeing in Ukraine) due to India's reliance on Russia for agricultural fertilizer in addition to other materials.
The true colours are that not antagonising Russia takes priority over anything else. I didn’t say it needed justification, but it’s clearly the true intention
 

sun_tzu

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I wonder how the freezing conditions will impact things for either side. It's hardly optimal to move around or be posted somewhere in near sub zero temperature.
Tanks like frozen ground.
Yes it's actually a few degrees above perfect....but still very good

Give it a few weeks (for a theoretical and clearly not gonna happen nato counterattack )and then the tanks will be far slower as the ground gets softer
 

VorZakone

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So would I be right in saying that

1) The war is not going as well for Russia as they expected and Ukraine are still in the fight
2) Russia is under more international pressure than they expected and it's looking increasingly like a disaster for Putin?
I'd say #2 is likely yes. On #1, let's not be fooled. Russia haven't used all of their force yet.
 

sport2793

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If there is no give and take then one side has to be utterly defeated.

Good luck and try not to drag the world into a nuclear pissing contest.
I disagree with your views that both sides are to blame for this. While I believe India should have the right to neutrality in this situation, this attack is entirely on Putin and his fear that a democratic Ukraine will affect the legitimacy of his autocratic regime. NATO is the only thing preventing Putin from expanding this war.
 

Droid_Repairs

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I'd say #2 is likely yes. On #1, let's not be fooled. Russia haven't used all of their force yet.
I can't decide if international isolation will make the Russians double down and get more aggressive, or encourage them to consider backing down and not do anything stupid against any of their other neighbours at this time.
 

Raoul

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So would I be right in saying that

1) The war is not going as well for Russia as they expected and Ukraine are still in the fight
2) Russia is under more international pressure than they expected and it's looking increasingly like a disaster for Putin?
Yes. But as mentioned, Putin still has a lot more weaponry that he can use. But even if he were to take Kiev, he wouldn't be able to put a puppet in place since that person would get rejected and an insurgency would form immediately and get rid of him. So there really is no end game where Putin can come out on top.
 

VorZakone

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I can't decide if international isolation will make the Russians double down and get more aggressive, or encourage them to consider backing down and not do anything stupid against any of their other neighbours at this time.
At this point, all bets seem to be off. Putin started it, and now the situation develops from here. Historical precedent shows that Russia has no qualms about using extremely aggressive force, but now international spotlights are on them.
 

Skåre Willoch

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Yes. But as mentioned, Putin still has a lot more weaponry that he can use. But even if he were to take Kiev, he wouldn't be able to put a puppet in place since that person would get rejected and an insurgency would form immediately and get rid of him. So there really is no end game where Putin can come out on top.
This is really what I’m struggling to wrap my head around. What can Russia possibly gain from this? A never ending insurgence and guerilla warfare for decades?
 

VorZakone

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I'm no PR expert but in my opinion all Ukrainian diplomats are having a truly excellent performance.

The ambassador, the minister of foreign affairs, and Zelenskiy himself obviously. Addressing nations individually to highlight their support and communicating in English.
 

Sarni

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Yes. But as mentioned, Putin still has a lot more weaponry that he can use. But even if he were to take Kiev, he wouldn't be able to put a puppet in place since that person would get rejected and an insurgency would form immediately and get rid of him. So there really is no end game where Putin can come out on top.
He will kill many Ukrainians and innocent people will die in huge numbers but I am getting a feeling this is a war he can’t win. He won’t control 44 million people who hate him and with every day that passes he is under more and more pressure.
 

Widow

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I think this week will be looked at decades from now as the beginning of the end for Putin.
I don't think nukes will ever come into play.
Agreed on both points.

I was watching an interview on Sky news with a former US ambassador to Ukraine. He talked about how the US got the USSR to back down during the Cuban crisis and the USSR was much stronger than today's Russia. He spoke, and I agree that Putin uses nuclear Weapons to strike fear into people and that we can't allow him to do that.

Putin can't afford a long war, the Sanctions will take hold and they will have an impact.

Going on another interview with the former head of the British Army, he believes Russia doesn't have the man power to control the whole of Ukraine. He thinks two major cities only and that home fighters across the country will make life very hard Russia because of this.
 
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limerickcitykid

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sport2793

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The true colours are that not antagonising Russia takes priority over anything else. I didn’t say it needed justification, but it’s clearly the true intention
Look I believe India will be best served in the long term by reducing ties with the Putin regime and increasing cooperation with the US, which can give greater flexibility for India to forcefully stand for democratic values and against autocratic regimes, it can't happen overnight though.
 

VorZakone

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Raoul

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He will kill many Ukrainians and innocent people will die in huge numbers but I am getting a feeling this is a war he can’t win. He won’t control 44 million people who hate him and with every day that passes he is under more and more pressure.
Agreed. He has galvanized most of the world against him within 48 hours, has managed to get the most crippling sanctions imaginable enacted, and now also has demonstrations against him within Russia. No matter what he does in Ukraine, he will lose in the end.
 

OleGunnar20

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Indeed your countries true colours were shown when churchill starved millions of Indians to death. And in case you come up with a half arsed defense that that was ages ago let me inform you that in the 70's you lot sent in your navy into Indian waters to bomb us in hope of helping pakistan who was at the time genociding bangladeshis. So spare me your "true colours" bollocks.
What have you done about it then ?

Why don't you pressure your govt right now to cut ties with the saudis who are murdering civilians in yemen right now with the military hardware given by your govt ?
Whataboutism. This is about Ukraine, now, not past atrocities.
 

T00lsh3d

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Look I believe India will be best served in the long term by reducing ties with the Putin regime and increasing cooperation with the US, which can give greater flexibility for India to forcefully stand for democratic values and against autocratic regimes, it can't happen overnight though.
Fair enough. I don’t know why I’m pushing it to be honest. What you say is reasonable
 

sport2793

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Fair enough. I don’t know why I’m pushing it to be honest. What you say is reasonable
In time it will happen that US and India will become very close, after all US currently has a Vice President of Indian descent and I wouldn't be surprised to see a US president of Indian descent in the next few decades as the Indian-American community is a growing influential bloc inside the US. The foundational values of the two countries are very similar after all.
 

Smithy89

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Anyone not talking about the current war on Ukraine should be kicked or banned, keep your prejudices and past nonsense out.

Hope all the brave women and children who have fled or stayed are safe and well. The regular men and soldiers fighting for their country, absolute warriors and heroes. I hope the Ukrainian people don't bow to Russia whatever happens. This is why national pride is important and should never be looked down on.
 

VorZakone

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Interesting read that. Thanks.
Important point here.

Ukrainians have spent the last eight years planning, training, and equipping themselves for resisting a Russian occupation. Ukraine understands that no U.S. or NATO forces will come to its rescue on the battlefield.

Its strategy doesn’t depend on turning back a Russian invasion, but rather in bleeding Moscow so as to make occupation untenable
 

Rightnr

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The content and conclusion have no logical relationship.

Basically, I disagree with what you're doing but I would love your business or resources.

This is the kind of stuff that makes you question if humanity will ever reach the next level or even prevent its self-destruction.
 

noodlehair

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This is really what I’m struggling to wrap my head around. What can Russia possibly gain from this? A never ending insurgence and guerilla warfare for decades?
That would probably be beneficial to them compared to Ukraine joining NATO.

Although more realistically you'd think they were either hoping for a quick surrender and being able to negotiate terms to keep NATO and the west out. Or to gain some territory on their own border.

Even just distabalising Ukraine would have benefits.

It's still a weird one as they've gone so all in with it they'll end up looking weak even with those outcomes...and risk making the region more hostile than the hassle it would be worth. That's before getting to the international consequences with non allies using it as fuel and allies having no real reason to do much more than distance themselves.