Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

do.ob

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They aren't proof. That's why they're called wargames. They are a probabilistic prediction of what will happen if the variables considered turn out to be accurate.
Okay, proof wasnt a good word to use. What I meant was: how much are simulations worth when so much depends on the perception, strategy and feelings of one dictator.
 

Neo_Mufc

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Some habits die hard...

Is it racist to characterize Russian soldiers as drunks?
Was reportedly shot before via some comments in the thread. A link to the video as well but I haven't viewed it yet as I don't have Reddit app.
 

TMDaines

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My wife and I were some of the people interviewed by the New York Times for this article:


You might be able to get around the paywall with this link.

The Financial Times has now gone in two-footed too:



As the comments to this article remind us, more dogs were air-lifted out of Afghanistan during the fall of Kabul, than visas have been issued to Ukrainian family members of British citizens since Russia’s invasion.
 
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GlastonSpur

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Some habits die hard...

Is it racist to characterize Russian soldiers as drunks?
Good way for him to get out of the war - not actual desertion as such, nor surrendering, just be found drunk, inert and harmless.

Maybe the Ukrainians should leave piles of full vodka bottles in strategic locations for the Russian troops to find.
 

Klopper76

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Feels like companies are now just following a trend by suspending sales/services in Russia. One or two started a trend and others decided to do the same or face some kind of backlash.
 

ooeat0meoo

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Good way for him to get out of the war - not actual desertion as such, nor surrendering, just be found drunk, inert and harmless.

Maybe the Ukrainians should leave piles of full vodka bottles in strategic locations for the Russian troops to find.
That was my exact suggestion on the day Russia first invaded. :p
After the Afghan/Russia war ended, it was reported that Russian troops had partially failed to beat the Taliban because of widespread vodka drinking and hash smoking
 

Raoul

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Okay, proof wasnt a good word to use. What I meant was: how much are simulations worth when so much depends on the perception, strategy and feelings of one dictator.
If you can get into Putin's head, then it improves the odds of predicting an outcome. That is of course, a massive IF.
 

VorZakone

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That was my exact suggestion on the day Russia first invaded. :p
After the Afghan/Russia war ended, it was reported that Russian troops had partially failed to beat the Taliban because of widespread vodka drinking and hash smoking
To clarify: the Taliban didn't exist in the Soviet-Afghan war.
 

TMDaines

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Feels like companies are now just following a trend by suspending sales/services in Russia. One or two started a trend and others decided to do the same or face some kind of backlash.
Would you want your business associated with Russia right now, whether because of the regime being incompatible with the most basic values of your company, or because of the negative press associated with being one of the last outliers operating out there, or because the safety of your staff is actually put in jeopardy by just operating normally?

Companies are still dropping out for all three reasons,
 

Sir Matt

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They aren't proof. That's why they're called wargames. They are a probabilistic prediction of what will happen if the variables considered turn out to be accurate.
I don't think anyone would've predicted Russia would perform this poorly though. Their plans and tactics would be very different against NATO, obviously, but the nature of this invasion really undermines their credibility as a fighting force, aside from the nukes. It has made me worry much more about any potential conventional war against Russia since it seems Putin would feel his regime was threatened very quickly.
 

Redlyn

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
 

Raoul

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I don't think anyone would've predicted Russia would perform this poorly though. It has made me worry much more about any potential conventional war against Russia since it seems Putin would feel his regime was threatened very quickly.
I think its down to terrible training and preparation, in combination with the deception (troops were told they were on an exercise, not about to invade) and subsequent lack of morale to attack a nation containing friends and relatives.
 

Frosty

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
Sanctions have impacted Russia heavily and will continue to do so. You cannot diversify an economy away from Russian oil and gas overnight, but states are starting to take measures to do so.

Hilarious is probably not the word I would use.
 

do.ob

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
If I give you one apple but grab two apples on the side then I have taken an apple from you.
 

TMDaines

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
Ask @harms how hilarious it is only a week or so in.
 

The Purley King

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and subsequent lack of morale to attack a nation containing friends and relatives.
If I had to guess that would be my suggestion.
If you are defending your country, your way of life then you fight to the bitter end.
If you don’t really agree with it (the war) in the first place you aren’t going to have that innate will to succeed.
I have never been in that position thankfully but if my life was on the line I’d be far more willing to give it up if I thought it would mean something than if I thought it was a shit idea from the get go.
 

Klopper76

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Would you want your business associated with Russia right now, whether because of the regime being incompatible with the most basic values of your company, or because of the negative press associated with being one of the last outliers operating out there, or because the safety of your staff is actually put in jeopardy by just operating normally?

Companies are still dropping out for all three reasons,
i mean I get it, but I wonder if some of them would've done so if others hadn't started the trend.
 

Mihai

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
 

Rightnr

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
Absolutely hilarious. Why didn't the European nations burry some more oil in their countries, instead of Russia.

:wenger: :wenger: :wenger: reasoning.
 

Sarni

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Feels like companies are now just following a trend by suspending sales/services in Russia. One or two started a trend and others decided to do the same or face some kind of backlash.
Cynical part of me thinks it is often not dictated by wanting to take a stance against the war but rather low profitability and volatility driven by currency issues.
 

Klopper76

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Cynical part of me thinks it is often not dictated by wanting to take a stance against the war but rather low profitability and volatility driven by currency issues.
Yeah I'm leaning that way with some of them as well.
 

TMDaines

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i mean I get it, but I wonder if some of them would've done so if others hadn't started the trend.
Sure, but an exodus is always going to be staggered. It’s incredible how quick things have moved really. The invasion hadn’t even commenced two weeks ago.
 

GlastonSpur

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I find it hilarious how sanctions are supposed to severely punish Russia meanwhile the west is fueling their war through oil and gas exports. They might as well sit and fold their arms for all it's worth.
This is not true at all.

Buying Russian oil and gas was happening anyway (it hasn't been added on), but the sanctions are new and represent a huge hit on Russia's economy. The result: huge net damage to Russia's economy.

The ruble has fallen through the floor, inflation will soon be rampant, unemployment will sky-rocket, Russian GDP will shrink massively. In 6 months from now Russia will be an economic basket-case.
 

Klopper76

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Sure, but an exodus is always going to be staggered. It’s incredible how quick things have moved really. The invasion hadn’t even commenced two weeks ago.
True. I'm even more impressed that Russian forces still haven't taken Kiev. It felt like they were heavily shelling the outskirts of the capital on day two maybe? I can't remember when it was exactly but there was a CNN reporter putting body armor on.
 

Raoul

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If I had to guess that would be my suggestion.
If you are defending your country, your way of life then you fight to the bitter end.
If you don’t really agree with it (the war) in the first place you aren’t going to have that innate will to succeed.
I have never been in that position thankfully but if my life was on the line I’d be far more willing to give it up if I thought it would mean something than if I thought it was a shit idea from the get go.
Add to this the fact that Russian soldiers are conscripts with little interest in fighting in the first place, who are then probably underpaid and mistreated in a variety of ways, and its not particularly hard to see why they may underperform, abandon their vehicles, surrender etc.
 

Sir Matt

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Given the impending need to pivot from Russian gas, I would like to see the US, Europe, etc. start the process of building LNG container ships and processing facilities much more urgently than Scholz' prediction of a LNG facility being ready in a couple years. And start figuring out how to build more ships capable of installing wind turbines.
 

Dr. Dwayne

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Cynical part of me thinks it is often not dictated by wanting to take a stance against the war but rather low profitability and volatility driven by currency issues.
Probably not that, they are just realizing that staying in Russia will have a significant impact on their reputation.
 

Raoul

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Given the impending need to pivot from Russian gas, I would like to see the US, Europe, etc. start the process of building LNG container ships and processing facilities much more urgently than Scholz' prediction of a LNG facility being ready in a couple years. And start figuring out how to build more ships capable of installing wind turbines.
Agreed. LNG transport and de/re gassification terminals should be priority #1.
 

Sir Matt

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Nobody wants to be the one to directly give them the planes, it seems. :rolleyes: