Favourites to win World Cup?

2ndTouch

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I have to say though that no team with pre-tournamnet odds as long as the Dutch currently have has won the WC in the last 40 years.
I wonder why...
Are you people for real? Does anyone in here really see Memphis lifting the thing?:lol:
The only reason France isn't head and shoulders above anyone else is Deschamps. It's still their tournament to lose. Don't get the fuss about Argentina, their key players are 35 and 34 years old, respectively, and the rest of the squad is decent, but nothing more. Brazil looks good on paper, as they usually do, but in the past 20 years it was curtains for them once they faced a big european footballing nation. So, I'm not willing to buy into that hype just yet. Spain and Germany have an array of amazing options, unfortunately only for certain parts of their squads. Portugal look like they're at the advent of a bright future, after Ronnie's retirement. England share their main predicament with France, hard to imagine Southgate-Catenaccio going all they way.
In the end, the winner will be one of the above menioned (well, not the Netherlands), but I can't really see a clear top contender
 

bosnian_red

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Netherlands squad is really not that good. If they can't win it with the holy trinity back in 2014. I just don't see how this squad managed to surpass.
They don't have a Robben level attacker but the rest of the squad is multiple levels above that one. That one was shite for the most part, but dragged to the semis by Robben and Van Gaal showing his coaching superiority over your average international manager. Current Memphis is quite a bit better for Netherlands than that Van Persie was. The key for Netherlands is Frenkie of course, but he legitimately plays like one of the best midfielders in the world for Netherlands, and consistently. Goalkeeper is their only point where there's not a whole lot going on, but it's fine, fits the system.
Pasveer
Timber Van Dijk Ake
Dumfries Frenkie Koopmeiners Blind
Bergwijn Memphis Gakpo
De Ligt, De Vrij, Malacia, Frimpong, de Roon, Berghuis all as excellent depth pieces for either full back, centerback, defensive mid, wing positions. Gravenberch, Taylor and Brobbey as well. With Van Gaal, they've developed into a dominant team and that's the most important, and they have the squad to be able to dominate any other international side and they haven't been outplayed by anyone since he took over. They are just far better than in 2014 as a team now.
 

bosnian_red

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I have to say though that no team with pre-tournamnet odds as long as the Dutch currently have has won the WC in the last 40 years.
Odds people looking at country names only and ignoring any sort of actual performances over the past 1.5 years is what that is.

People calling France favourites, haven't watched France since their world Cup win. Simple as that. Like feck are they favourites with Deschamps. It's like being confused that United kept on being shit with Ole or Mourinho game after game after we finished 2nd. Yes, we were good a year before, and then the squad lost hope and just couldn't get it up for the manager, and so every game was shit. This is France now. Just like it was Germany until Flick replaced Low. And it is Portugal now. And it is England now. Those 3 aren't winning shit until they get a new manager with fresh ideas to get the squad to at least play to their level.

Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Argentina and Brazil have to be the top 5. And for me, Brazil is a clear bottom of that group. They play defensive, negative football and have an ancient back line. They don't play to their strengths at all. Netherlands, Germany and Spain all play to their strengths, with excellent managers, and excellent teams (varying depth). Argentina had a great game vs Italy in that one game that was a glorified friendly, but other than that have played basically garbage level opposition but have been comfortable throughout. Hard to judge them, but they have a very well balanced team and if Messi is back to his best, can make it all the way. They're the biggest unknown for me though and I'm going more of results and names for them than any performances that I've actually seen like with Germany, Netherlands, Spain.
 

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Whatever happens, just don't have the majority of our players losing a final.
Maguire, Shaw, Rashford all came back broken from the Euros.
 

do.ob

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You remind me of the greatest disgrace in football history.
Okay, maybe the referee wasn't at his best. But in the end Italy still lost, so how was it a disgrace?

They don't have a Robben level attacker but the rest of the squad is multiple levels above that one. That one was shite for the most part, but dragged to the semis by Robben and Van Gaal showing his coaching superiority over your average international manager. Current Memphis is quite a bit better for Netherlands than that Van Persie was. The key for Netherlands is Frenkie of course, but he legitimately plays like one of the best midfielders in the world for Netherlands, and consistently. Goalkeeper is their only point where there's not a whole lot going on, but it's fine, fits the system.
Pasveer
Timber Van Dijk Ake
Dumfries Frenkie Koopmeiners Blind
Bergwijn Memphis Gakpo

De Ligt, De Vrij, Malacia, Frimpong, de Roon, Berghuis all as excellent depth pieces for either full back, centerback, defensive mid, wing positions. Gravenberch, Taylor and Brobbey as well. With Van Gaal, they've developed into a dominant team and that's the most important, and they have the squad to be able to dominate any other international side and they haven't been outplayed by anyone since he took over. They are just far better than in 2014 as a team now.
I wouldn't rule out that they show good team play, but how is that an impressive lineup? VvD, Dutch Maguire and Frenkie aside it's a bunch of players, who are pretty talented, but ultimately not good enough for elite clubs (yet) and that's what it usually comes down to at these tournaments, as dominating the ball by itself doesn't get you anywhere. You (also) need to succeed in the key individual moments, like your keeper stepping up the one or two times your defense is bound to let something slip or your attackers making the most out of the two or three opportunities you'll get in a close game.
 
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RuudTom83

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I'd say Brazil or France, but I don't watch much International Football so it just a pick on reputation.


Slightly off topic, but it would be good to see how many players from each team in the league were going to the WC.
 

Andrade

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Odds people looking at country names only and ignoring any sort of actual performances over the past 1.5 years is what that is.

People calling France favourites, haven't watched France since their world Cup win. Simple as that. Like feck are they favourites with Deschamps. It's like being confused that United kept on being shit with Ole or Mourinho game after game after we finished 2nd. Yes, we were good a year before, and then the squad lost hope and just couldn't get it up for the manager, and so every game was shit. This is France now. Just like it was Germany until Flick replaced Low. And it is Portugal now. And it is England now. Those 3 aren't winning shit until they get a new manager with fresh ideas to get the squad to at least play to their level.

Spain, Germany, Netherlands, Argentina and Brazil have to be the top 5. And for me, Brazil is a clear bottom of that group. They play defensive, negative football and have an ancient back line. They don't play to their strengths at all. Netherlands, Germany and Spain all play to their strengths, with excellent managers, and excellent teams (varying depth). Argentina had a great game vs Italy in that one game that was a glorified friendly, but other than that have played basically garbage level opposition but have been comfortable throughout. Hard to judge them, but they have a very well balanced team and if Messi is back to his best, can make it all the way. They're the biggest unknown for me though and I'm going more of results and names for them than any performances that I've actually seen like with Germany, Netherlands, Spain.
Um that's not how oddsmakers do it.
 

bosnian_red

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Um that's not how oddsmakers do it.
The odds for international football aren't really calculated based on meaningful performances. It's more name value and history. Because otherwise, if we were basing it off of actual footballing performances, England and France would not be top 4 in the odds. And Brazil wouldn't be favourites. How can Brazil be favourites over Argentina when Argentina have been better than them over the past few years and have a better squad, better manager, better results? Name value.

When you look at the total package, performances, squads, coaching, ability to transfer that to a tournament, the best European sides since the last euros have been Spain, Germany and Netherlands. By a distance. Hard to compare how they stand vs Brazil and Argentina, but I'd guess Brazil is more like France/Portugal/England, and Argentina will be more like the top 3.
 

bosnian_red

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Okay, maybe the referee wasn't at his best. But in the end Italy still lost, so how was it a disgrace?



I wouldn't rule out that they show good team play, but how is that an impressive lineup? VvD, Dutch Maguire and Frenkie aside it's a bunch of players, who are pretty talented, but ultimately not good enough for elite clubs (yet) and that's what it usually comes down to at these tournaments, as dominating the ball by itself doesn't get you anywhere. You (also) need to succeed in the key individual moments, like your keeper stepping up the one or two times your defense is bound to let something slip or your attackers making the most out of the two or three opportunities you'll get in a close game.
It's a really well balanced lineup IMO. Guys like Gakpo are performing really well and can really make a name for himself in the attack. Memphis is a far better player for international level than he is for club level (he's 8 goals off RvP to being Netherlands top all time scorer in 25 fewer appearances). Timber as part of a back 3 next to Van Dijk is a beast and fits in really well. Dutch Maguire is on the bench anyway. Bergwijn a very decent attacker. And it's Van Gaal putting them all together to get the best out of his best players and the rest providing a good base. They aren't average talents, which they were in 2014. Now they're big talents who are on the cusp of breaking out for the most part. It's not the best lineup, but probably the best balance combined with form, coaching that I think puts them right in the mix. And a defence is key in these tournaments, and they have a really good defensive balance both with individuals and their system. I don't think Germany quite have that balance with individuals, neither do Spain.

We'll see how far they get. Can see them playing Argentina in the quarter finals, so they're both in my top 4 favourites anyway.
 

Andrade

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The odds for international football aren't really calculated based on meaningful performances. It's more name value and history. Because otherwise, if we were basing it off of actual footballing performances, England and France would not be top 4 in the odds. And Brazil wouldn't be favourites. How can Brazil be favourites over Argentina when Argentina have been better than them over the past few years and have a better squad, better manager, better results? Name value.

When you look at the total package, performances, squads, coaching, ability to transfer that to a tournament, the best European sides since the last euros have been Spain, Germany and Netherlands. By a distance. Hard to compare how they stand vs Brazil and Argentina, but I'd guess Brazil is more like France/Portugal/England, and Argentina will be more like the top 3.
Nothing you've said here makes any sense whatsoever. Argentina have had better results than Brazil and have a better squad?!?!

Oh and bookmakers made odds for international football using the same criteria as they do when making odds for everything else: ensuring that they lose as little money as possible.
 

bosnian_red

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Nothing you've said here makes any sense whatsoever. Argentina have had better results than Brazil and have a better squad?!?!

Oh and bookmakers made odds for international football using the same criteria as they do when making odds for everything else: ensuring that they lose as little money as possible.
I mean, yes? Argentina have 2 wins and 1 draw against Brazil in the past 3 years. Won the Copa America. Argentina hammered Italy. Brazil haven't played anyone of note. Argentina have a better balanced squad as well. Just look at Brazil's fullbacks... Not doubting the midfield, attack and goalkeepers. But I doubt the manager getting the best out of them in an attacking system, and there just aren't good defenders there.

And sure. Just like the oddsmakers had Spurs as favourites against us because they were ahead in the table and better last season, ignoring that United have played far better this season. Odds makers are always behind on trends compared to actually watching teams and being able to see their actual performances, what systems they can implement and how they dominate games, as well as how they perform against other big sides. Same reason why Belgium was regularly ranked among the top sides in Europe because they hammered shit teams regularly, but weren't actually a good team ever and never had a good coach.
 

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It's a really well balanced lineup IMO...
That doesn't mean anything. Freiburg is a fantastically balanced team, but that doesn't make them good enough to to win this years' EL. Apart from the CB positions, the Dutch lack quality all over the pitch, for a true go at the cup, at least.
 

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I think either France or Argentina will fall in the Ro16 as I think they'll be playing each other with France yet again failing to beat Denmark.

Can see an outsider like Serbia and Poland (or even Senegal) getting close, if not all the way, to the final if they tighten up their defenses and their striker is on fire as that side of the tree is quite open.

And who knows, maybe Qatar will make be lifted to some success akin to South Korea. Host spirit and all that. *chuckles*
 

Andrade

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I mean, yes? Argentina have 2 wins and 1 draw against Brazil in the past 3 years. Won the Copa America. Argentina hammered Italy. Brazil haven't played anyone of note. Argentina have a better balanced squad as well. Just look at Brazil's fullbacks... Not doubting the midfield, attack and goalkeepers. But I doubt the manager getting the best out of them in an attacking system, and there just aren't good defenders there.

And sure. Just like the oddsmakers had Spurs as favourites against us because they were ahead in the table and better last season, ignoring that United have played far better this season. Odds makers are always behind on trends compared to actually watching teams and being able to see their actual performances, what systems they can implement and how they dominate games, as well as how they perform against other big sides. Same reason why Belgium was regularly ranked among the top sides in Europe because they hammered shit teams regularly, but weren't actually a good team ever and never had a good coach.
Complete nonsense, with all due respect. You must be the only person in the world who thinks that Brazil have a worse squad than Argentina and is unaware that Brazil qualified for the World Cup comfortably ahead of Argenrina. A one off loss last year (or 3 years ago or however crazily far you want to go back in time) doesn't mean that Argentina should be favoured ahead of Brazil.

I'm not even gonna get into the nonsensical stuff about United and Spurs. Suffice to say, you'd think it was Spurs that were the team with a zero goal difference so far this season and not United, going by your rationale.
 
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al.gabiru

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With Goretzka, Gundogan, Kroos and Kimmich, does Germany have the best midfield in the World Cup?

+Neuer, Muller, Gnabry, Musiala

For me the strongest team in Europe talent wise
 

Andrade

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With Goretzka, Gundogan, Kroos and Kimmich, does Germany have the best midfield in the World Cup?

+Neuer, Muller, Gnabry, Musiala

For me the strongest team in Europe talent wise
Over France? Not for me.
 

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Brazil has a great squad and a good coach, but one of the worst fixtures. They will survive Serbia, Switzerland and Cameroon but it will be extenuating. Then it's probably Portugal in second round, then Spain and then Argentina. Even if they make it they will be battered by the final.

The big teams in the top half have double advantage: easier draws/fixtures and an extra day of rest. An eventual Argentina - England final is a real possibility.
 

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With Goretzka, Gundogan, Kroos and Kimmich, does Germany have the best midfield in the World Cup?

+Neuer, Muller, Gnabry, Musiala

For me the strongest team in Europe talent wise
Kroos left the national team
 

bosnian_red

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That doesn't mean anything. Freiburg is a fantastically balanced team, but that doesn't make them good enough to to win this years' EL. Apart from the CB positions, the Dutch lack quality all over the pitch, for a true go at the cup, at least.
Quality centerbacks. Frenkie plays like one of the top 3 midfielders in the world for the national team. A lot of very good throughout. Didn't they play a very even game with Germany not long ago? And have destroyed Belgium since, who while not a favourite are still decent. They haven't lost in ages. As a team, Netherlands is without a doubt up there. They have enough quality, we aren't talking mid table players, we are talking very good players throughout.
 

bosnian_red

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Complete nonsense, with all due respect. You must be the only person in the world who thinks that Brazil have a worse squad than Argentina and is unaware that Brazil qualified for the World Cup comfortably ahead of Argenrina. A one off loss last year (or 3 years ago or however crazily far you want to go back in time) doesn't mean that Argentina should be favoured ahead of Brazil.

I'm not even gonna get into the nonsensical stuff about United and Spurs. Suffice to say, you'd think it was Spurs that were the team with a zero goal difference so far this season and not United, going by your rationale.
I mean I don't care what order a team qualifies, it's not like Argentina had troubles. I think it's more telling looking at recent performances and results between the only 2 nations who are any sort of threat to the top European nations. The consistency with which a team dispatches middling square isn't too relevant to world Cup success. Performances against top teams is.

And in terms of squad, I think Argentina is better balanced. Tell me who Brazil's fullbacks are? 38 year old Thiago Silva starts in a back 4, they use a CB at RB, and have fecking Telles at left back? Come on. That's not a defence capable of winning a world Cup. Also, entirely untested against European sides, who have dominated for 20 years.

As for the United/Spurs stuff... Again. Pretty clear blindly looking at league standings instead of how a team has actually been playing to form your opinion. Netherlands aren't a major nation, so are definitely going under the radar, but performance wise against big opposition, they've been as good as anyone IMO.
 

bosnian_red

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Anyway, I wouldn't say Netherlands are favourites, but I'd say there's a group of 4 who will win it and that 4 is Germany, Spain, Netherlands and Argentina. Maaaaaybe Brazil, haven't seen enough of them but the bits I've seen I'm not convinced so I'd say no. If they're more like France and England and Portugal than the other 3, then they won't have a chance.
 

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I think either France or Argentina will fall in the Ro16 as I think they'll be playing each other with France yet again failing to beat Denmark.

Can see an outsider like Serbia and Poland (or even Senegal) getting close, if not all the way, to the final if they tighten up their defenses and their striker is on fire as that side of the tree is quite open.

And who knows, maybe Qatar will make be lifted to some success akin to South Korea. Host spirit and all that. *chuckles*
Apparently Qatar’s team is quite shit, so it’ll take a lot of … host .. spirit
 

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I think this team is a lot more balanced than Argentina sides of previous years that were top heavy but often had players from the domestic league in key areas like goalkeeper and fullback.

Good impact subs like Dybala, Alvarez, Correa, Lo Celso and Papu Gomez too.

Good depth in defence too with guys like Otamendi, Foyth and Tagliafico.
 

Andrade

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I mean I don't care what order a team qualifies, it's not like Argentina had troubles. I think it's more telling looking at recent performances and results between the only 2 nations who are any sort of threat to the top European nations. The consistency with which a team dispatches middling square isn't too relevant to world Cup success. Performances against top teams is
.

What top teams have Argentina played? You mentioned Italy, but they haven't qualified. Let's include them for the sake of argument. Who else?

And in terms of squad, I think Argentina is better balanced. Tell me who Brazil's fullbacks are? 38 year old Thiago Silva starts in a back 4, they use a CB at RB, and have fecking Telles at left back? Come on. That's not a defence capable of winning a world Cup. Also, entirely untested against European sides, who have dominated for 20 years.
Anyone else here think Argentina have a better squad than Brazil?

As for the United/Spurs stuff... Again. Pretty clear blindly looking at league standings instead of how a team has actually been playing to form your opinion. Netherlands aren't a major nation, so are definitely going under the radar, but performance wise against big opposition, they've been as good as anyone IMO.
So it doesn't matter who is actually ahead in points, goals scored and goals conceded in setting odds. The only thing that matters is who you personally think is playing better. Very scientific.
 

RVN1991

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Apparently Qatar’s team is quite shit, so it’ll take a lot of … host .. spirit
Was tempted to put down a small amount on them getting out of the group stage but with VAR I don't think they'll get the usual benefits most host nations have gotten in past World Cups.
 

Klopper76

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I've got a feeling Brazil might do it. England will be out by the quarters.

Nah Canada all the way!
 

2015

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Anyone else here think Argentina have a better squad than Brazil?
He's typing from his yacht, which he won from making profits on the bookies mistakes. So he didn't have time to check the respective squads.
 

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Argentina and Brazil are head and shoulders shiver everyone at the moment
 

bosnian_red

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What top teams have Argentina played? You mentioned Italy, but they haven't qualified. Let's include them for the sake of argument. Who else?



Anyone else here think Argentina have a better squad than Brazil?



So it doesn't matter who is actually ahead in points, goals scored and goals conceded in setting odds. The only thing that matters is who you personally think is playing better. Very scientific.
Argentina won 2 and drew 1 out of recent games with Brazil, along with the Italy game. Italy not making it was a fluke, but anyway. So like... How aren't they proven to be a better side? Deservedly won a final, won another and drew another. And then hammered Italy. Brazil against big teams.... Lost to Argentina and played nobody else. Hard to judge playing against Ghana and South Korea where the ancient defence won't be challenged.

And at this early stage of the season, no it does not matter at all. Watching performances/trends and seeing with your own eyes matters more than small sample size results which have enormous variance.
 

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Chelsea fans the moment Germany wins the World Cup …. and Havertz and Werner share the golden boot::houllier:
 

BlackShark_80

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With Goretzka, Gundogan, Kroos and Kimmich, does Germany have the best midfield in the World Cup?

+Neuer, Muller, Gnabry, Musiala

For me the strongest team in Europe talent wise
Talent wise France, Portugal, and England are better than Germany.