Club Sale | It’s done!

[Yorke to Cole]

From my perspective, no journalist has truly been able to get close to the Qatari bid throughout this process until the pieces from Reuters and Bloomberg recently. To me, that means something. Before that, most of the reports reeked of Raine briefings or were from sources within the club, in my opinion.

Mike Keegan was clearly their chosen guy in the buildup, but even he was only just a conduit rather than someone well informed on the happenings of the negotiations.

That was what came to my mind a couple of days ago. It is as if they no longer need him. It reminds me of those Hollywood political thrillers where the main perpetrator does not the man on the inside or more specifically "The Dark Knight", where the Joker hires all those people to assist him in the heist and he dispenses of them one by one.

 

[Devil_forever]

Ok very simply, buying 51% of controlling shares means all of the Glazers would receive a windfall now, some, more than others and Joel and Avram would receive potentially more in 3 to 4 years.

All of the minority share holders would receive no windfall but expect to keep their shares and have no option to sell at a premium price that they would have been guaranteed by Sheikh Jassim because he has guaranteed that his 92 Foundation will but all 100% of the club and would offer $38 to all shareholders, that’s now part of his 5th bid.


If SJR wins, the shares would immediately plummet as the market would have no confidence in him plus Joel and Avram restoring the club to former glories, meaning the current $24 share price would probably drop to $16 and large hedge funds like Lindsell train LTD and Ariel investments own about 19 million shares between them. So imagine being told you could have had $722m if we had signed with Qatar but instead because we preferred SJR bid because Joel and Avram stay in the board and the three Amigas will run the club into the ground, so when they are looking to sell their shares in 18 months they are now worth $14 per share they are now worth $266m, you can rest assured that these two large companies will vehemently object.

They can object all they want but do they have any legal grounds to do so? Why can't the glazers sell to SJR their shares, what's the legal obligation for them to not do so?

 

[seegoblu]

Ask the hedge funds and Soros if they agree with you?

 

[JagUTD]

Ok very simply, buying 51% of controlling shares means all of the Glazers would receive a windfall now, some, more than others and Joel and Avram would receive potentially more in 3 to 4 years.

All of the minority share holders would receive no windfall but expect to keep their shares and have no option to sell at a premium price that they would have been guaranteed by Sheikh Jassim because he has guaranteed that his 92 Foundation will but all 100% of the club and would offer $38 to all shareholders, that’s now part of his 5th bid.


If SJR wins, the shares would immediately plummet as the market would have no confidence in him plus Joel and Avram restoring the club to former glories, meaning the current $24 share price would probably drop to $16 and large hedge funds like Lindsell train LTD and Ariel investments own about 19 million shares between them. So imagine being told you could have had $722m if we had signed with Qatar but instead because we preferred SJR bid because Joel and Avram stay in the board and the three Amigas will run the club into the ground, so when they are looking to sell their shares in 18 months they are now worth $14 per share they are now worth $266m, you can rest assured that these two large companies will vehemently object.

I understand the theory, perceived market confidence would be low and therefore the price would plummet.

But that's all it is, theory. What I want to know is why the market would have no confidence in Ineos. I also think there's a counter theory in which the value of the shares is likely to increase, maybe not in the short term, the United stock is volatile and can fluctuate based on complete nonsense right now, but once things settled down, it would revert to normal. The clubs revenues and value are both likely to trend upwards and this would positively impact the share price.

 

[Yorke to Cole]

I mean you've just got to look at who attended the meeting at Old Trafford on SJ's behalf.

Shahzad Shahbaz - 25 years at Bank of America and a Qatari Investment Advisor

Yasir Shah - Managing Director of Bank of America

Fady Bakhos - Legal, corporate & investment advisor to Sheikh Jassim

Sam Powers - Global Head of Technology, Media & Telecoms at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Multiple lawyers.

They knew exactly what they were doing.

Who was the person that looked like Des Lynam?

 

[Woziak]

I understand the theory, perceived market confidence would be low and therefore the price would plummet.

But that's all it is, theory. What I want to know is why the market would have no confidence in Ineos. I also think there's a counter theory in which the value of the shares is likely to increase, maybe not in the short term, the United stock is volatile and can fluctuate based on complete nonsense right now, but once things settled down, it would revert to normal. The clubs revenues and value are both likely to trend upwards and this would positively impact the share price.

Normal is not $24-26 this is only trending up because the market expects a best case scenario, wealthy state (oops I mean banker) buys football club and has the money to invest immediately without borrowing, will pay off the debt and short term has agree to delist the club and pay a ridiculous premium to all shareholders immediately, SJR can’t do this he is not liquid rich, he is asset rich. It’s really that simple

 

[JagUTD]

Because one outcome Qatar pays 38 a share to buy them off everyone
The other outcome Jim doesn't buy the A class at all, so they will plummet due to no chance of a buyout

Surely though, those shareholders were fully aware of the status of their shares and that this was always a possibility.

It's also impossible to predict any future sale and how it would be structured.

Any legal challenge of this nature as well as being unhappy you aren't getting equal value for an unequal share is flimsy at best.

 

[JagUTD]

Well no because the public shares are worth more in the event of a Qatar takeover as they intend to purchase them at a premium. Ratcliffe isn't interested in them. Hence why he's got himself in trouble by ignoring the class A shareholders.

Don't get me wrong, they see an opportunity and will try their luck. But their shares are not equal to the B shares and they know it.

 

[Berbaclass]

Don't get me wrong, they see an opportunity and will try their luck. But their shares are not equal to the B shares and they know it.

Try their luck at what? If Jassim buys the club the public class A shares will be bought at a premium. That will literally happen.

 

[JagUTD]

Try their luck at what? If Jassim buys the club the public class A shares will be bought at a premium. That will literally happen.

This entire thing is about them launching a legal challenge if they accept Ratcliffes bid. I thought that was obvious.

If that was to happen, then they would absolutely be trying their luck.

 

[Berbaclass]

This entire thing is about them launching a legal challenge if they accept Ratcliffes bid. I thought that was obvious.

If that was to happen, then they would absolutely be trying their luck.

Ratcliffe is done mate. He's not even second choice.

 

[Infra-red]

Ratcliffe is done mate. He's not even second choice.

Assuming the Bloomberg information is accurate, it looks like his only chance to win will be to team up with Carlyle or Elliott (or similar) and make a competitive bid for all the Glazers' shares.

 

[Berbaclass]

Assuming the Bloomberg information is accurate, it looks like his only chance to win will be to team up with Carlyle or Elliott (or similar) and make a competative bid for all the Glazers' shares.

Yeah probably. I don't think he would risk that though.

 

[glazed]

Perhaps what some people are missing is that in scenario SJ then the club with all shares is being bought for a large sum of money. In scenario SJR only the Glazer chunk is being bought for a smaller amount of money, all of which goes to Glazers (so more for them, none for minority shareholders, whose shares logically collapse in value). So scenario 2 is a big net transfer of wealth from minority shareholders to Glazers. That would be the chairmen of the company acting directly against the interests of shareholders which might be illegal under Cayman company law.

 

[JagUTD]

Normal is not $24-26 this is only trending up because the market expects a best case scenario, wealthy state (oops I mean banker) buys football club and has the money to invest immediately without borrowing, will pay off the debt and short term has agree to delist the club and pay a ridiculous premium to all shareholders immediately, SJR can’t do this he is not liquid rich, he is asset rich. It’s really that simple

Yeh it's obviously above value which makes their expectations of an additional premium and anything other than that is unfair, even more ridiculous.

I managed to have a look at the share price history anyway and when the sale was announced, the price rocketed $5 in a day and another $3 over the weekend. Trying to find articles from back them to refresh my memory as to who had made their intentions to bid public is proving difficult though but I seem to recall Ratcliffe was the first and then Qatar.

 

[Berbaclass]

Yeh it's obviously above value which makes their expectations of an additional premium and anything other than that is unfair, even more ridiculous.

I managed to have a look at the share price history anyway and when the sale was announced, the price rocketed $5 in a day and another $3 over the weekend. Trying to find articles from back them to refresh my memory as to who had made their intentions to bid public is proving difficult though but I seem to recall Ratcliffe was the first and then Qatar.

I think so yeah.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Bizarre if true, literally you and him/her kept this thread going throughout.

Her. Plant is a beautiful woman and she LOVES receiving saucy PMs.

 

[JagUTD]

Ratcliffe is done mate. He's not even second choice.

You're may well be right.

 

[Berbaclass]

You're may well be right.

What we now have to worry about is the Glazers somehow getting minority funding from those cnuts like Carlyle or Elliott but I consider the likelihood very unlikely.

 

[Rhyme Animal]

What we now have to worry about is the Glazers somehow getting minority funding from those cnuts like Carlyle or Elliott but I consider the likelihood very unlikely.

The club (their product) will essentially become a toxic brand if they do.

The scenes if they do that at this point will be on another level. In terms of sponsorship deals etc it’ll be increasingly difficult for them to flog Utd with that much toxicity and negativity attached to the club.

And if they do that, they’ll remain as the face of the club (rather than sticking Ratcliffe in the firing line), so their name will become even more sullied and soiled than they’ve already made it.

 

[croadyman]

Assuming the Bloomberg information is accurate, it looks like his only chance to win will be to team up with Carlyle or Elliott (or similar) and make a competitive bid for all the Glazers' shares.

Don't put ideas in Ratcliffe's head

 

[JagUTD]

I think so yeah.

Obviously confidence in Ratcliffe was lost when the possibility of keeping the Glazer in some capacity came out.

 

[Woziak]

Yeh it's obviously above value which makes their expectations of an additional premium and anything other than that is unfair, even more ridiculous.

I managed to have a look at the share price history anyway and when the sale was announced, the price rocketed $5 in a day and another $3 over the weekend. Trying to find articles from back them to refresh my memory as to who had made their intentions to bid public is proving difficult though but I seem to recall Ratcliffe was the first and then Qatar.

Ratcliffe at the time was buying 69% only and never mentioned doing a deal with the Glazers in the beginning, it’s only in last 3 months he came up with his crazy put and call offer, the bad press recently with Nice, he’s just looks like a complete non starter in get the NYSE excited plus he said in an interview he wanted to move the club to the London Stock exchange!

 

[Berbaclass]

The club (their product) will essentially become a toxic brand if they do.

The scenes if they do that at this point will be on another level. In terms of sponsorship deals etc it’ll be increasingly difficult for them to flog Utd with that much toxicity and negativity attached to the club.

And if they do that, they’ll remain as the face of the club (rather than sticking Ratcliffe in the firing line), so their name will become even more sullied and soiled than they’ve already made it.

Agree

 

[Rhyme Animal]

Agree

Still, they’re such unbelievable shit eels that as long as there’s even a sliver of a chance they’ll feck it up it makes me nervous.

They literally feck everything up for Utd as though it’s some kind of inbuilt compulsion for them.

 

[JagUTD]

What we now have to worry about is the Glazers somehow getting minority funding from those cnuts like Carlyle or Elliott but I consider the likelihood very unlikely.

Considering it's believed the current minority shareholders may have potentially scuppered a potential avenue of sale, I doubt they would want to make that even more difficult in the future.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

Perhaps what some people are missing is that in scenario SJ then the club with all shares is being bought for a large sum of money. In scenario SJR only the Glazer chunk is being bought for a smaller amount of money, all of which goes to Glazers (so more for them, none for minority shareholders, whose shares logically collapse in value). So scenario 2 is a big net transfer of wealth from minority shareholders to Glazers. That would be the chairmen of the company acting directly against the interests of shareholders which might be illegal under Cayman company law.

It's not illegal under Cayman law (which gives little to no protection to minority shareholders), but would probably go against NYSE regulations.

So there's definitely a case to be made for litigation. Even if it didn't succeed, a court case could hold up the sale for a while - definitely a risk to consider if you're the Glazers.

 

[FlawlessThaw]

Have to say Brexit Jim has handled the whole thing quite badly. Never tried to win over the fans with his Make United British again shtick and constantly looked like he was trying to do whatever he could to piss everyone off.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

Have to say Brexit Jim has handled the whole thing quite badly. Never tried to win over the fans with his Make United British again shtick and constantly looked like he was trying to do whatever he could to piss everyone off.

To be fair to him, the fans have no say in any of this. If he wants to buy the club, it's the Glazers he has to win over first. The PR and fan outreach can come later.

 

[croadyman]

I think they will and my guess is it will be pretty soon and it will be Qatar.

So if you had to predict a date roughly?

 

[Berbaclass]

So if you had to predict a date roughly?

Monday

 

[Walter Sobchak]

Have to say Brexit Jim has handled the whole thing quite badly. Never tried to win over the fans with his Make United British again shtick and constantly looked like he was trying to do whatever he could to piss everyone off.

I think he played the only hand he could (keeping 2x Glazers involved in small capacity initially). As soon as Qatar entered the race simply wasn't going to win a pissing competition with them so needed to approach from a different angle.

 

[croadyman]

Monday

Very bold,wonder if it's significant that British media haven't been quite so quick to pour cold water like they did with Reuters

 

[Berbaclass]

Very bold,wonder if it's significant that British media haven't been quite so quick to pour cold water like they did with Reuters

If they were waiting till the end of the month then Monday seems pretty logical

 

[Rhyme Animal]

So if you had to predict a date roughly?

Never change, Croady

Tomorrow or Monday.

 

[Big Ben Foster]

Tuesday is a holiday in the US which means business on Monday and probably tomorrow will also be a bit slow. Doubt that'll have any impact on timing of announcements, but just FYI.

 

[dacore]

It´s Friday, or Jazzday. Can we at least get something new positive from Qatar today? That would be nice.

Also regarding SJR. David Hellier said in the interview that he "does seem reluctant to bring in Partners".

 

[Wibble]

What's with the title update?

"more and less" confident of winning? Which is it?

Yes

 

[Wibble]

So if you had to predict a date roughly?

Some time before the heat death of the Universe. Probably.

 

[Devil You Know]

Quick update to the list of biggest threads on the forum (with post count):

1. The Trump Presidency | Biden Inaugurated - 112459
2. The Random Chat Thread | 10th May 2023: Crime against sarnies - 84613
3. Schrödinger's Club Sale | Plant free zone. - 75490
4. Ole Gunnar Solskjær | 2021/22 Discussion - 74489
5. Frenkie de Jong | The last muppeting lap - 73915
6. The 500K Thread - 72169
7. Brexited | the worst threads live the longest - 72050
8. SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please) - 67115
9. The Prop Grops Throps - 58811
10. Jadon Sancho| Staying at Dortmund for now - 53642
11. Is the United forum safe to go into yet? - 53433
12. Russian invasion of Ukraine - 48817

Now in third place. I reckon we'll get second by the time this is done.