I’m interested in what you are saying. But that post has so many clauses, sub clauses, parentheses etc, that I’m totally lost. Can you explain it like I’m 5?
Israel - Palestine Discussion | Post Respectfully | Discuss more, tweet less
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik (@Rood) was joined by comedian Ali Woods to look back at the best and worst moments of a rollercoaster season with the annual United Hour Awards.
Has Ten Hag been sacked yet? We're not sure and we hope not, but it's looking more likely as the days pass.
Who should replace him and why is it taking so long to make a decision?
Death toll in Israel up to 250 people. And is going to rise higher. Much higher.
It's quite unprecedented in scale; I'm not sure they know how it will play out, because if the hostage number is indeed 100+ there's some pretty cold calculating to do. If Hamas released them in return for a ceasefire, would Israel have to agree? Or will the IAF now and raze gaza to the ground to find them, dead or alive.
I've heard 1400 dead and 70~ captured (+ 2 ambulances and a tank) quoted. Could be bs though. There are still live shooter situations as I understand.
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I dread to think what the hawks in the knesset want to do now. I think Hamas may have grossly miscalculated the potential response to this.I already despise Netanyahu's regime for what they do to Palestinians on a regular basis, but Hamas are definitely in the category of "the stupidest of the stupid" because what they just did is definitely not how to get people and nations on their side. Bigoted fanatics, man...
My mood in this, really:
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Trying to condense four years of movements across that region into a few sentences. Just a broad uptick/trend for the Arab League as, for once in its entire existence, an autonomous bloc.
I suggest reading https://new.thecradle.co/. It's the best english-language source for things that are not easily stated on forum posts. It's balanced (inasmuch as you can expect it) and not the typical anti-Israeli thing (more concerned with larger Arab trends, economic-political, through Northern Africa and obviously the "standard" Arabic region (we rarely include the Islamic Africans within that region).
Simply put. The Iranians and Saudis have been engaged in diplomatic mutually assured deescalation which is being mediated by the Arab League in general. Saudi plans for transport links, modernization, Turkey and the Emirati states building a massive interlinking trade corridor, Iranians and Iraqis engaged in something similar. Just promising news, if you take it all together, coming from that region. Yemen, and certain other conflicts aside (the state of Libya let's say), it might be the most peaceful/optimistic the Middle East (the Arabic League M.E. has looked in the lifetime of all people upon the planet).
The Saudis want to modernize. It's happening, albeit to their own pace. The Iranians want (as do the Saudis for the first time in 50 years or more) a genuine understanding (economic/zones/military/etc.). It's just a general rise of that region which is absolutely looking decades ahead. Might not be the best of explanations but it is literally four to five years of economic Middle-East stuff which I cannot really represent well here.
If you were 5, I'd just say: from the Arabic perspective, it hasn't looked better in any person's lifetime. Anyone interested, beyond those here who know it as well or better than me, natives, academics, etc, needs to follow the economic agreements being made throughout the Middle East and Africa and driven by the Arab Leauge. The AL, as it goes, has always seemed useless but now, and in decades to come, you can see it actually working for most of the states involved. The Chinese/US/Russian point is just this: they tolerate great powers but they, now, see themselves, via the AL as an emerging power which thus hedges its "bets" against all the other powers (more collective now than it has been perhaps ever).
Not the easiest poster to comprehend, so I just point you to deep political-economic readings which you can find at thecradle.co and other places.
As one example: the Saudis want to do business in Syria and the Arab League has conclusively accepted Assad back into the fold. The Saudis made this known to the US. They also made it known that the two-state solution is their price for various other US goals within the region (and this is rare). Follow it daily, or weekly, and you see an Arab League actually coming together, despite differences which will always exist, as an economic-political giant (or relatively so). So the Saudis/Iranians do hedge agains the US/China/Russia (etc) but it is understood now that there is a limit to any imposition upon the Arab world, whatever the nation, or bloc, insofar as deciding their own future goes.
US wants Israeli recognition (across the AL). I.e., that's the hedge the Saudis made (publicly) and entirely because of the Arab League (they cannot function within that league if they accept US demands but let the Palestinian issue go; which, turning to a week or two ago, is why the Saudi minister, for the first time in decades, went to the WB and publicly let the two state requirment be known). Fatah, now, not so much Hamas (but, again, the AL has coordinated meetings between Hamas and Fatah and even IL with the latter opting out because of internal disputes with Fatah and their general remit when it comes to IL fighters). It's just a general Arab confidence which hasn't existed in centuries (probably since the Ottoman Empire but ask someone else about that, I'm not qualified to give you that history).
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The point is that Palestinians had been brought to point of no hope, so for them it doesn't change anything. No one in the West gave a crap about them anyways and now you had Arab countries, their usual allies, normalizing relations with Israel, so they had no worthwhile ally left anymore.I already despise Netanyahu's regime for what they do to Palestinians on a regular basis, but Hamas are definitely in the category of "the stupidest of the stupid" because what they just did is definitely not how to get people and nations on their side. Bigoted fanatics, man...
They were going to be slowly ethnically cleansed anyway, with the pace quickening lately with settlers conducting violence with support from the army, so it doesn't change much for them.
Get out and go where? There's a blockade on them, in case he's forgotten.
Good point. They're stuck there. The potential for casualties will be massive once the Israelis retaliate.
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@Raoul Am I right in thinking that the US could not pass any military aid bill for Israel currently, due to the house being in chaos? Or is there some executive branch provision that would allow escalation of supplies under existing aid packages?
Saw one human rights lawyer interview on Sky, she is hell bent on defending Hamas and wont even agree that this attack is barbaric in isolation. She is basically saying that Israel got what it deserved and doesn’t care if victims are non combatants. Shocking comments from “human rights “ lawyer.
suspect he means “get out” when they roof knock. A few times buildings have been hit today, they’ve thought that was the attack and not taken the roof knocks seriously.
When it comes to Israel, US politicians will stop fighting and galvanize around getting something passed. Not sure how the lack of House speaker issue would factor into that, but I doubt it will be a problem.
oh, fair enough. I thought the house couldn’t pass legislation at all without a speaker.
Exactly. It's not the first time that I say to myself that Hamas have done stupid shit to rally Israelis behind Netanyahu when it was not long ago that they (Israelis) stood firm against the proposed reforms to the power of Israel's supreme court. But THIS recent course of actions is exactly playing straight into the hands of the hawks in the Knesset; it's the full silver plater with caviar and other appetizers delivered to them.
If only the US/Israel mourned the lives of Palestinians in the same way as their own, we’d have had peace here ages ago.
A tad surprised they are roof knocking. Hope it continues.
It's a side-ist trap to be avoided. I knew something like this was coming because it was obvious, but you still cannot justify it, though you do have to understand it. You don't have to justify Hamas rockets to be pro-Palestinian. You have to reject it (as well the Israeli use of force) and refuse to get bogged down into the predictable tit-for-tat exchange which has nothing to do with tangible solutions and everything to do with angry people, understandably, letting ideology get the best of them.
If you cannot condemn Hamas (as a Westerner, much more difficult for Arabic states) then you don't have a leg to stand on when the Israelis are to "blame" the "next time".
What's a roof knock? Small payload?
Is the UK committing war crimes every day in this scenario?
Well, if each side's fairytale wasn't held to such a silly belief level, we'd have had peace even before that.
Small ordnance to the roof of a building to signal the coming of much more substantial ordnance.
A warning to evacuate by the Israelis to give civilians a chance to leave the area. Its usually done by a non-explosive device, but can also be done through text message and other means.
That's complete nonsense. Many Arabic nations doing extensive trade with Israel. Moreover, millions of Palestinians live in Israel proper. You have ideologues who shout this and that, but it's no more representative of the Middle East or Arab world than a Klansman of North America or North Korea of Asian people (or the IRA/Unionist hardliners of those communities not so long ago).
I doubt the number of dead is that high.
However, there are many unknowns. Israeli Military just hass't reached all areas, houses and people, so there's no way of telling how many are dead, wounded or missing (and therefore are probably in Gaza). There were thousands in some sort of nature party near the Gaza strip and many are unaccounted for.
And yes, there are also live situations. One of them involved about 50 people being held hostage in one place.
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A call has been made to join this war by Hamas. How likely and which groups are going to join this?
I know
One of the most noticeable things about the Arab response are how few are voicing any kind of support for Hamas. With the exception of Iran it seems to all be calls for a ceasefire, deescelation and even some support for Israel. A stark contrast to 1973.
Cheers guys. Seems like a good sign if they are doing that. At least it means the hawkest of hawks haven't hijacked the process, since I'm sure there are people in there who wouldn't give a warning.
Would it be possible for them to go to Egypt or is that border fenced off too?
That also is fenced off. Only thing they can go is swim for it.
Surprised they are still doing roof knocks tbh.
In other news, the dead woman paraded through Gaza with Palestinian children running over to spit on her, is a German citizen that was there for the music festival.
In other news, the dead woman paraded through Gaza with Palestinian children running over to spit on her, is a German citizen that was there for the music festival.
The Arab states are moving towards normalizing relations with Israel, so they're not likely to be overtly pro-Hamas in this situation. They obviously wouldn't be pro-Israel in this situation either and will instead try to strike a more balanced tone.
I did wonder what would happen if ‘tourists’ were caught up in it
Yep. The dangerous part is what happens next. Because if it goes really bad, Hezbollah, and this is six months in the making (this specific scenario), are massed in the north by the blue line. They sort of let it be known that should something like this happen, they may very well move from the north into the conflict. If that happens, then a world of shit is unleashed. And whilst Iran obviously funds Hezbollah, it really, despite the usual Iranian-Israeli hatred (their tensions/conflicts over decades) isn't an Iranian produced movement. As for the rationale, only Hamas knows that. But as Raoul said, there will be an inevitable response and by my reading of the situation the only thing they - Hamas - can be trying to do here is signal to Hezbollah in the north. That would be catastrophic for the Arabs and Israelis. It's scatter-brained madness by Hamas. The Saudis already stipulated, and seriously meant it, that they won't accept normalization without the two-state being firmly binding. So that's not why Hamas did it. To put it on the world's agenda? Maybe. It was inevitable, but I, being very pro-Palestinian, wouldn't justify it for a second because it is anti-Palestinian security (and anti-Israeli too).
Just to add: it is anti-Iranian regime in this instance because they've been about as pro-Saudi as they can be for the past two years. They're not tearing up years of diplomacy with the Arabic states for this one instance (constantly speaking with the Saudis now). And the only reason I add it is because I know the usual anti-Iranian media stuff to come which will completely ignore internal movements across the Middle East between Iran and those states it is trying to also reach consensus with. Only works that way (it's Iran's fault) from a myopic Western oriented point of view. I mean, in the background, you have Saudi/US/Iranian negotiations. So it just isn't "that" (Iranian proxy war stuff) which the media would, if they could, for a second, paint it as.
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I believe there’s talks of a national unity government, as they don’t believe they can fight a war with loons like Ben gvir and smotrich in charge. Likely depends on if bibi can extract immunity for corruption or whatever. Be in no doubt though, this will be brutal and murderous. The IAF will flatten Gaza before the tanks even roll, and plenty of innocents will lose their lives.
The roof knocks are far from perfect, they try to use an inert charge and sms etc as Raoul said, but they generally only give 5 minutes warning or so. Not much use for a disabled guy On the 6th floor.
Is this the same twenty something woman attending a peace concert in southern Israel whose abduction was posted on Twitter earlier ?
Saw a video where a bloodied young woman is being paraded in a jeep by Hamas terrorists. This is going very bad very fast. Israel response will be brutal.
Worst part is, people who looked like onlookers were cheering and making videos.
Worst part is, people who looked like onlookers were cheering and making videos.