SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

africanspur

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Slightly off topic but this whole thread has been such an interesting study of confirmation bias from pretty much every regular poster and I’m certain it I looked back at my own posts I’d see the same.

It seems that that the same posters on all sides of the argument continually keep a steady supply of articles backing up their narrative while also predicting how certain events are going to unfold and how those events are going to be (incorrectly) perceived as a sort of insurance policy to protect their narrative. It’s genuinely fascinating to read.
This is the most superbly and hilariously accurate post I have read on here. It is so true! I am sure that I'm also guilty of it.

I've given up making definitive statements now of any kind on what is still a novel virus. Yet people (of all types of opinion) still continue to do so.
 

JPRouve

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This is the most superbly and hilariously accurate post I have read on here. It is so true! I am sure that I'm also guilty of it.

I've given up making definitive statements now of any kind on what is still a novel virus. Yet people (of all types of opinion) still continue to do so.
The only thing we know for sure is that we don't know anything for sure.
 

redshaw

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In my opinion the problem with shops and mask isn't for customers but people working all day long in these shops, it is for them that we wear them. Customers don't really have major risk of contracting a respiratory disease while spending minutes in a shop while moving around, shopkeepers on the other end multiply interactions and are stuck in a closed space.
The shops I go to here in UK whether supermarkets or small local shops, the workers stopped with the masks and gloves. The practicality of wearing them all day and the warm end of April and May/June meant those 15- 20% that bothered early on gradually stopped a while back.

During this whole outbreak I haven't heard or known it to be common thing where supermarket workers have been getting infected despite all the many close interactions, it's probably too brief. Also people build up an understanding and see the 80% not having an issue without masks and gloves. Ages are mostly 50-65 with some young people about 18-25
 

Paxi

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What does that involve?
I was just drunk and talking nonsense as per usual. My mate and I always said that if shit were to hit the fan — I’d get buddied up with him since he lives in what looks like a compound in a middle of a field. It was always said jokingly but with 2020 I’m not even sure anymore.

Though, I would definitely not be surprised if we got hit by a second wave and the society descended into total chaos. Especially if it’s deadlier than the first like during the Spanish flu for instance.
 

Paxi

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Quite eerie reading the first page. Not one of us had the faintest idea how much this would impact the whole world and how quickly.
 

Brophs

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I couldn't take a pic of it for obvious reasons, but a guy passed me in Tesco earlier with a fancy cloth mask with "GIMP!" stencilled on it.

#secondwaveofbanter
 

Sarni

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:lol: :lol: :lol:

Are you sure you are not Serbian, this sounds too familiar?

On second thought, you aren't, here the percentage of those who will never be vaccinated is more than 67%.

Bad jokes aside, given the stance of our peoples on this , I guess we should just get on with it and all contract the virus, as we will not be getting herd immunity from a vaccine.
I think our countries are a bit similar. Education has wrong focus so we produce a lot of morons, unfortunately.
 

Irwin99

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I'd have zero problems with another lockdown if things got worse and if it meant more people were safe but it feels a really strange time in the sense that the problem is still obviously there but we're trying very hard to get back to normal. i'm not arguing the rights or wrongs of this approach i'm just saying it feels like we're in a weird in-between space.
 

Wibble

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Big difference between zero and “close” though.

With next to no tourists from overseas, freedom of movement within Australia must be really important right now, to keep the economy even vaguely functional.

Seems a bit over-ambitious to get/keep the whole country at zero if you’ve ongoing outbreaks in NSW and Victoria (two most populous states, right?)
There is but Victoria apart, zero = only people returning from overseas who are in quarantine. All but Vic and NSW have eliminated I believe and NSW is very close, with just the odd single community transmission here and there (last one imported from Victoria, a returnee who lied about not having symptoms in the 10 days before release from quarantine, and they will get to zero if we can control the Victorian outbreak (I hope). Victoria are level 3 locking down suburbs and full level 4 locking down 9 tower-blocks (where most of the new infections are) to try to avoid having to fully close the border. Although open borders and tourism will be important economically, elimination or extreme suppression is also very economically important as it will allow tourism with other states and NZ to occur. With NZ we may be on the verge of a travel bubble arrangement of some sort that will exclude Victoria for the time being (and maybe NSW). So it is a balance.
 

Wibble

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Yeah, that’s been encouraging. Outdoor mingling seems to be pretty harmless. The main good news plot twist so far.
Particularity if masks are worn. We had some large BLM marches that were in the main orderly with most distancing and wearing masks but despite 3 attendees testing positive after the event it seems none of them caught it or transmitted it at the event. All 3 were wearing masks for what it is worth. The pictures of Soho were concerning as social distancing didn't seem to be observed and few masks were evident, so there was a much higher chance of transmission I'd say.

I'm also wondering how big an effect summer is having. The fear is that the colder weather will assist a second wave. I'm also wondering what the cold winter in Melbourne is having.
 

utdalltheway

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What’s the deal with the public housing tower blocks lockdown? Is that going back to the Eid celebrations a while ago?
 

Wibble

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What’s the deal with the public housing tower blocks lockdown? Is that going back to the Eid celebrations a while ago?
Possibly related. It looks like it started with quarantine staff not complying with infection strategies (allegedly sleeping with people in quarantine - presumably without at least one form of protection ;)) and then doing things like car sharing with other staff on the way to work plus other breeches of protocols. The rumors are also that 2 large interrelated family clusters of infection resulted from big Eid celebrations (far bigger than allowed at the time) and these have spread including into the tower blocks. I'm assuming that winter, the cramped conditions in the blocks and that many of the residents don't have English as a first language, so haven't been as well informed about preventing infection, have been contributing factors. It is assumed that there are connections between these clusters as the government said they thought most of the infections came from a single individual originally.

Some right wing idiot tried to blame it on Somalians which the government denied but you get the impression the government of Victoria might be trying to avoid ethnic/religious scapegoating i.e. there may be come truth in the rumors. All we need is more idiocy so hopefully it will all turn out to be rubbish.
 

Wibble

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NSW Victoria border closed again after Melbourne reports 127 new infections. NSW had 10 new infections but all were international arrivals who are in quarantine.
 

Drifter

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Republican Senator called out for slamming Obama for TWO Ebola deaths while Trump has 130,000

 

lynchie

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This can't be good if testing proves it to be true (which seems likely). More infectious but no more harmful as might be predicted as selection will benefit more infectious strains but not more harmful strains.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07-infectious-strain-covid-dominates-global.html
There's some good commentary on that study in the preprint here:
https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30817-5?rss=yes

Essentially, the conclusions are "lets not get ahead of ourselves".
 

utdalltheway

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Possibly related. It looks like it started with quarantine staff not complying with infection strategies (allegedly sleeping with people in quarantine - presumably without at least one form of protection ;)) and then doing things like car sharing with other staff on the way to work plus other breeches of protocols. The rumors are also that 2 large interrelated family clusters of infection resulted from big Eid celebrations (far bigger than allowed at the time) and these have spread including into the tower blocks. I'm assuming that winter, the cramped conditions in the blocks and that many of the residents don't have English as a first language, so haven't been as well informed about preventing infection, have been contributing factors. It is assumed that there are connections between these clusters as the government said they thought most of the infections came from a single individual originally.

Some right wing idiot tried to blame it on Somalians which the government denied but you get the impression the government of Victoria might be trying to avoid ethnic/religious scapegoating i.e. there may be come truth in the rumors. All we need is more idiocy so hopefully it will all turn out to be rubbish.
Well whatever the actual cause hopefully they get control of it.
 

Pogue Mahone

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Similar results from Spain as previously from China that antibodies decrease a bit in 2-3 months. 14% of people who previously tested positive, tested negative 2 months later. Especially the people who had no symptoms.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN2471AL
@Pogue Mahone
Thanks. Their seems to be enough data around this for it to be reaching a consensus. Will make serological surveys less useful. Population screening will be inaccurate if you miss a lot of cases who were exposed > 2 months ago.

As far as I can work out, though, absence of testable antibodies doesn’t mean absence of immunity. Which means this isn’t quite the disaster it first seems and I’m not sure I agree with the comments of the Spanish physician quoted in that article.

EDIT: Although maybe her comments got lost in translation? She might be just using “immunity” to mean a positive antibody test.
 

Solius

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Bit anxious about all this again. Seems to come and go really depending on what I've read or heard. Most of the time I'm completely fine and then suddenly I'm terrified about the idea of having it and what could happen to me or someone I love.
 

massi83

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Thanks. Their seems to be enough data around this for it to be reaching a consensus. Will make serological surveys less useful. Population screening will be inaccurate if you miss a lot of cases who were exposed > 2 months ago.

As far as I can work out, though, absence of testable antibodies doesn’t mean absence of immunity. Which means this isn’t quite the disaster it first seems and I’m not sure I agree with the comments of the Spanish physician quoted in that article.

EDIT: Although maybe her comments got lost in translation? She might be just using “immunity” to mean a positive antibody test.
The sample size is so huge (70.000) that its results can be used elsewhere. Not hard to take the decrease into account, so serological surveys are still useful. Hopefully they will continue with the study.

Yup, although she does use the conditional "can be".

And it's obviously good (and predictable) that it is the people with no symptoms that account for most of the decrease.
 

Sassy Colin

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That could be any late night on Old Compton St, how do we know it was last night? Tends to be like that at chucking out theatre time but theatres are not open.

Either that or people are truly blithering idiots and they deserve everything coming to them, but no doubt the Government will get the blame.
 

Cardboard elk

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A bit off topic, but.. meanwhile, in the Chinese republic, yet another Virus (just days after they found something similar to swine flu) :

Black death

The international community should pressure China to make it illegal to eat all these exotic animals.