2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[owlo]

I saw on CNN that 90m have already voted. Which party's voters are more motivated to vote early and why?

Total Early Votes: 92,038,417 • In-Person Votes: 33,141,215 • Mail Ballots Returned: 58,897,202 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 32,303,784


Note: Some states do not differentiate between mail ballots and in-person votes.


Party registration statistics are provided only for states that have party registration


Total Voted by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD

Party	Count	Percent
Democrats	20,497,493	45.7
Republicans	13,565,795	30.3
Minor	290,522	0.6
No Party Affiliation	10,465,391	23.4
TOTAL	44,819,201	100.0

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

 

[FrankDrebin]

I simply cannot predict where the American public will go in this election.

 

[Amir]

The fact that there’s still around 45% who will vote for him says a lot about the US population.

Bingo.

 

[Maagge]

The only thing is that a lot of us were saying that four years ago as well. He was always a candidate that shouldn't be able to win (in a relatively normal society and system), but here we are. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins again. Fingers crossed though.

 

[Tarrou]

I think Biden will win but I hope it's close so Tuesday is more fun

 

[Phil]

We all said this 4 years ago and about Brexit as well, yet here we are.

 

[elmo]

Never doubt how stupid people can be especially the ones that voted for him in the first place.

 

[sammsky1]

Total Early Votes: 92,038,417 • In-Person Votes: 33,141,215 • Mail Ballots Returned: 58,897,202 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 32,303,784


Note: Some states do not differentiate between mail ballots and in-person votes.


Party registration statistics are provided only for states that have party registration


Total Voted by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD

Party	Count	Percent
Democrats	20,497,493	45.7
Republicans	13,565,795	30.3
Minor	290,522	0.6
No Party Affiliation	10,465,391	23.4
TOTAL	44,819,201	100.0

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Thank you.

Wow, that looks very very encouraging for Biden!

Was getting bit confused, as when I spoke with my New York based cousin yesterday, he was thinking it was inevitable that Trump would somehow win, that somehow the tide had turned in past few days. I kept telling him even if that was true, it was too little too late, as majority of electorate had already voted.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

Guide for election night and beyond tracking of results

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

NBC final national poll (48-43 in 2016)

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[Dante]

I think Biden will win but I hope it's close so Tuesday is more fun

Only Tuesday? If it's close, get ready for the whole of November being about the election count.

 

[Fergies Gum]

Anyone who has been paying attention to any of the district polling and internal polls knows Biden is going to comfortably win. Not sure why people keep mentioning 2016 as a gazillion different things have changed since then.

 

[FrankDrebin]

If Trumps wins he'll go on a tangent about how the "cheating Dems" cannot stop him and the "American people" in making American great again.

If he loses, he simply wont accept it. He'll go knee deep in conspiracy theories and may do some even more despicable sh*t.

 

[Drifter]

There are a lot of people out there, the forgotten ones, who tend not to vote for either party and may want to give the establishment a middle finger.

 

[Fergies Gum]

I simply cannot predict where the American public will go in this election.

I can. Biden is going to win by 100+ electoral college votes.

 

[coolredwine]

how? like in bush v gore? that was only possible because the total electoral school votes were so close that one state was going to define who wins
Next tuesday the difference will be so big that the supreme court will be useless

Republicans are racing to the Supreme Court to 1) get drive in ballots thrown out and 2) limit/restrict the counting of the mail-in votes.

 

[Vooon]

Total Early Votes: 92,038,417 • In-Person Votes: 33,141,215 • Mail Ballots Returned: 58,897,202 • Mail Ballots Outstanding: 32,303,784


Note: Some states do not differentiate between mail ballots and in-person votes.


Party registration statistics are provided only for states that have party registration


Total Voted by Party Registration

Reporting states with party registration data: AZ, CA, CO, CT, FL, IA, KS, KY, LA, MD, ME, NC, NE, NJ, NM, NV, OK, OR, PA, SD

Party	Count	Percent
Democrats	20,497,493	45.7
Republicans	13,565,795	30.3
Minor	290,522	0.6
No Party Affiliation	10,465,391	23.4
TOTAL	44,819,201	100.0

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Is the a reason to be worried about the huge number of mail in ballots which have been reported to be delayed in the post? I think it was Washtington Post which reported on something like 7 million delayed.

 

[FrankDrebin]

So, where are people going to watch this potential nightmare unravel ?

 

[owlo]

Is the a reason to be worried about the huge number of mail in ballots which have been reported to be delayed in the post? I think it was Washtington Post which reported on something like 7 million delayed.

Kinda a difficult question to answer unless you're really tuned in to what's happening on the ground. I know first hand that there are big problems in Miami-Dade, but I can't speak to how the situation is nationally.

I guess the standard answer of "worry about everything, assume nothing" is correct here.

 

[WI_Red]

So, where are people going to watch this potential nightmare unravel ?

In the fetal position.

 

[SirAF]

So, where are people going to watch this potential nightmare unravel ?

Noggie TV combined with RedCafe and Twitter I suppose!

 

[Ubik]

Guide for election night and beyond tracking of results

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-results-timing/

NBC final national poll (48-43 in 2016)

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The long term trend really is remarkable, though I imagine that's probably actually a function of the chaotic year rather than in spite of it.

Tweet

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It's a little crazy that the end result is still in doubt, but that's 2020 for you I guess.

 

[VorZakone]

Wait, this is Tuesday 3 Nov? I thought it was somewhere mid November!

 

[Vooon]

Kinda a difficult question to answer unless you're really tuned in to what's happening on the ground. I know first hand that there are big problems in Miami-Dade, but I can't speak to how the situation is nationally.

I guess the standard answer of "worry about everything, assume nothing" is correct here.

Yeah, I guess so. It's nerve wrecking.

They really need to sort out this mess of a system where political parties openly can undermine voting and elections in so many ways.

 

[Tom Van Persie]

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[Tom Van Persie]

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[sglowrider]

Tweet

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President AT&T ... reaching out and touching someone.

 

[Simbo]

I just can't wait to find out what he'll try / has tried. He is fecked after losing protection of the presidency, he really does have nothing to lose.

 

[sglowrider]

In the fetal position.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

The long term trend really is remarkable, though I imagine that's probably actually a function of the chaotic year rather than in spite of it.

Ds have held a pretty consistent +6 or above edge in the generic ballot for more than 3 years now. The pandemic probably give Biden a couple more points but on the whole I think it was always going to be stable.

 

[SinNombre]

So my final estimate (unless additional late polling surprise from good pollsters like Iowa yesterday) is that there is a 50% chance Trump will either claim victory or refuse to concede defeat on election night.

10% chance - Trump wins clearly (this will be still close ; 299-239 would be his best case scenario)
20% chance - Trump leads after Tuesday night with PA still being counted. Assuming PA is fully counted, we could see anything from a Trump win by 2 ec seats, to a tie (269-269) to a Biden win by 20 (279-259). Mostly a Biden win if we get due process.
20% chance - Biden leads after Tuesday night with PA still being counted but below 270 (269-249). Biden leads in PA on Tuesday night. Normally, this should mean conceding the election but Trump obviously won't do so.
25% chance - Biden gets to 270 without PA on Tuesday night. Wins WI and MI comfortably and wins one of FL, GA, NC, OH, AZ
25% chance - Biden on track for 350+ EC. Wins two out of FL, GA, NC, OH. Even TX might be in play.

 

[Carolina Red]

Wait, this is Tuesday 3 Nov? I thought it was somewhere mid November!

It’s always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

 

[WI_Red]

It’s always the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.

Shhhhhhh! you might attracts the crazies out of the This Week and Next Week thread.

 

[owlo]

25% chance - Biden gets to 270 without PA on Tuesday night. Wins WI and MI comfortably and wins one of FL, GA, NC, OH, AZ

I'd be extremely shocked if this wasn't the case. More like a 25% chance that DOESN'T happen.

He won't get to 270 Tuesday night though. Official counts take longer.

Also, giving Trump a 75% chance of winning 3/4 of FL,GA,NC,OH is crazy imo.

 

[WI_Red]

So my final estimate (unless additional late polling surprise from good pollsters like Iowa yesterday) is that there is a 50% chance Trump will either claim victory or refuse to concede defeat on election night.

10% chance - Trump wins clearly (this will be still close ; 299-239 would be his best case scenario)
20% chance - Trump leads after Tuesday night with PA still being counted. Assuming PA is fully counted, we could see anything from a Trump win by 2 ec seats, to a tie (269-269) to a Biden win by 20 (279-259). Mostly a Biden win if we get due process.
20% chance - Biden leads after Tuesday night with PA still being counted but below 270 (269-249). Biden leads in PA on Tuesday night. Normally, this should mean conceding the election but Trump obviously won't do so.
25% chance - Biden gets to 270 without PA on Tuesday night. Wins WI and MI comfortably and wins one of FL, GA, NC, OH, AZ
25% chance - Biden on track for 350+ EC. Wins two out of FL, GA, NC, OH. Even TX might be in play.

I am vacillating between cautious hope and abject terror, but I would say my median slot is a Cathy comic strip (i would be shocked if anyone gets this, but if you do you will).

 

[utdalltheway]

Ad
On the bottom of this page for me.
Designed to creat confusion or to clear up confusion? The info looks legit but I couldn’t tell who was providing it. It says it’s not govmnt provided info.

 

[utdalltheway]

In the fetal position.

 

[berbatrick]

The long term trend really is remarkable, though I imagine that's probably actually a function of the chaotic year rather than in spite of it.

Tweet

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It's a little crazy that the end result is still in doubt, but that's 2020 for you I guess.

I maintain that it's the 3rd week of May 2020, as the spread of corona outside NY combines with Geroge Floyd. Trump drops off from 44. Biden climbs up from 48.

 

[Adisa]

I think Biden will win but I hope it's close so Tuesday is more fun

Feck being close. I want a Trump meltdown from Tuesday.

 

[jderbyshire]

Everything logical is telling me Biden is going to win, and I genuinely conciously believe that will happen.

But for some reason deep down I have this feeling Trump's gonna win.

 

[ReallyUSA]

We said that four years ago, and then shit went belly up.