How likely is there to be a shy trump voter turnout?
Will the influence of gerrymandering be strong?
Will the influence of gerrymandering be strong?
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
- Status
Really hope you’re right, without knowing anything really about USA politics surely he can’t get re elected
Gerrymandering affects only the election for House of Representatives. The presidency and the senate are decided based on statewide votes, so no gerrymandering possible there.
Ronaldo > Messi
Gonna bump this in the early hours of Wednesday morning (European time) when Trump wins by a landslide 
That’s not right. Gerrymandering is also relevant for the presidential election
Famous last words...
How? Every state has a number of electoral votes, and all except 2 states are based on winner takes all.
Aaah I see! I wasn’t aware of this, thank you.
Supreme Court to the rescue.
well now you’ve jinxed it
Seems its getting to be that the great hope of the Democrats is the mailed-in votes? If just one of these batches are found to be false or corrupted then all hell lets loose!
Imagine your entire strategy being to use the courts to steal an election then beating your chest, calling yourself the world's greatest democracy.
I agree with Marcos completely
It's all about Trump.. like it was 4 years ago.
The other candidate is irrelevant..
The ballot might as well read Trump vs Not Trump.
If he has pissed off more people that he has impressed over the last 4 years, he wins.. If not, Not Trump wins.
The other candidate is irrelevant..
The ballot might as well read Trump vs Not Trump.
If he has pissed off more people that he has impressed over the last 4 years, he wins.. If not, Not Trump wins.
????????
how? like in bush v gore? that was only possible because the total electoral school votes were so close that one state was going to define who wins
Next tuesday the difference will be so big that the supreme court will be useless
it looks as though biden is clearly in front and this time people will vote. so it looks good
Trump shouldn't be getting even 5% of the vote with everything he's done and said over the years. Guess what, even if he loses he's getting atleast 45% of the vote. Who do you think these 45% are ? They dont give a rats ass about policies and facts. Don't commit the mistake of assuming all humans are well intention'ed.
No legal way he can win it.
Hoping the Americans aren’t this complacent, we all thought he couldn’t win before and look how that turned out.
the equation IMHO is simple
people that voted for Trump that don't like him anymore: quite a few
people that didn't vote for Trump that started liking him now: you kidding?
people that didn't vote because they were not old enough: a lot and as far as i know most of them hate Trump
people that didn't vote but now they will because they dislike one of the candidates: a lot, and most of them are going to vote just to take Trump out of the white house
Trump looses
people that voted for Trump that don't like him anymore: quite a few
people that didn't vote for Trump that started liking him now: you kidding?
people that didn't vote because they were not old enough: a lot and as far as i know most of them hate Trump
people that didn't vote but now they will because they dislike one of the candidates: a lot, and most of them are going to vote just to take Trump out of the white house
Trump looses
The EV system is crap given the electors can vote for someone entirely different to who their state voted for: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
I expect a bunch of shenanigans with that
Clarification: Viewed from a distance this summary is what seems to be coming through, maybe its just those on here getting jittery!
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
Except for the one that was posted.
That is obviously true (and Electoral college sucks anyway). But it is not gerrymandering
It’s a rather obscure mechanism. If the election is thrown to the house, each state gets to cast one vote and the vote is decided by which party controls that state legislature, which Republicans currently have the edge 26-24. So despite being in control of the House, Dems would still lose.
The wonders of American political system.
If he wins Pennsylvania which would require only a slightly bigger polling error than 2016 then I think he wins the election...He’ll win Florida and Texas/Georgia/Arizona too. Hopefully I’m wrong but I see this being way closer than is being made out.
If the courts can throw out one batch of mail ballots in one state to change the election, the pollsters, modelers, and pretty much everybody else have fecked up. The courts shouldn't really come into play.
My concern is more civil unrest post election. And voter intimidation on election day.
The fact that there’s still around 45% who will vote for him says a lot about the US population.
I saw on CNN that 90m have already voted. Which party's voters are more motivated to vote early and why?
I think there were a lot of people who were curious about a Trump presidency and gave him the benefit of the doubt, and voted for him. I imagine these same people would be disappointed in how underwhelming his tenure was. Combine that with all the shitty remarks he's made over the years and I just can't see another Trump win.
In the case that election does not matter, and that the presidency gets decided by House of Representatives. Not gonna happen.
Except the title, it has nothing to do with gerrymandering, instead it has to do with Electoral College, which is a totally different thing.
There's about a 10% chance according the the latest polling I've seen.
- Status